The Run Home

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,599]

If Collingwood lose to Geelong (and lose badly!), then things are really starting to get interesting!

Assume we go 3-0 and Pies go 1-2, we would need to make up about 70 points on the Pies which isn't overly difficult.

This could involve Pies losing to Geelong by 20, losing to Brisbane by a point and beating Essendon by 20.

Meanwhile we could beat Carlton by 20, Hawks by 40 and Sydney by 10.

 

I know others were happy with Brisbane beating Freo due to draft picks, but it would've opened more doors for us. 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Bring-Back-Powell

[binman 39,460]

20 minutes ago, A F said:

FWIW, Lloyd and Barrett both have us as the number one seed now. Lol.

Barrett?

That's funny.

Next you'll be telling me Jimmy does too!

But seriously, what does it say about the pies that the loss of one player can have such an impact?

Talk he is the best player in the league is just plain ridiculous.

A total gun, and i'd love to have him at the dees, but a better player than the bont, clarry, maxy and tracc?

I don't think so.

An argument could be made he is the single most important player to any one team. 

Though, maxy must be in that conversation too.

The difference is we have an AA ruck in the twos.

It's a huge problem for the pies that the loss of daicos, who after all is a flanker and/or mid (and teams have plenty of them on their lists- not at the dacicos level, but still) has such an impact on their sytems, method and fortunes.

That is a big structural problem.

And on the discussion of best, no one would argue clarry is in the top 5 Ayers in the AFL. Our record since he has been out has been simply phenomenal- and hardly commented on - particularly given tracc has been playing forward and we have basically run with our B team midfield.

All things being equal, the blues  who are down 2 of their 3 mids and have a banged up ruck, will go head to head at some point with Maxy, clarry, tracc and viney.

Good luck with that.

Edited August 7, 2023 by binman

[titan_uranus 23,128]

16 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

If Collingwood lose to Geelong (and lose badly!), then things are really starting to get interesting!

Assume we go 3-0 and Pies go 1-2, we would need to make up about 70 points on the Pies which isn't overly difficult.

This could involve Pies losing to Geelong by 20, losing to Brisbane by a point and beating Essendon by 20.

Meanwhile we could beat Carlton by 20, Hawks by 40 and Sydney by 10.

 

I know others were happy with Brisbane beating Freo due to draft picks, but it would've opened more doors for us. 

I think a comfortable Collingwood win is more likely than Geelong winning by 20.

[Binmans PA 26,659]

13 minutes ago, binman said:

Barrett?

That's funny.

Next you'll be telling me Jimmy does too!

But seriously, what does it say about the pies that the loss of one player can have such an impact?

Talk he is the best player in the league is just plain ridiculous.

A total gun, and i'd love to have him at the dees, but a better player than the bont, clarry, maxy and tracc?

I don't think so.

An argument could be made he is the single most important player to any one team. 

Though, maxy must be in that conversation too.

The difference is we have an AA ruck in the twos.

It's a huge problem for the pies that the loss of daicos, who after all is a flanker and/or mid (and teams have plenty of them on their lists- not at the dacicos level, but still) has such an impact on their sytems, method and fortunes.

That is a big structural problem.

And on the discussion of best, no one would argue clarry is in the top 5 Ayers in the AFL. Our record since he has been out has been simply phenomenal- and hardly commented on - particularly given tracc has been playing forward and we have basically run with our B team midfield.

All things being equal, the blues  who are down 2 of their 3 mids and have a banged up ruck, will go head to head at some point with Maxy, clarry, tracc and viney.

Good luck with that.

Again, McRae's presser was telling. He said they tried to play Daicos deep to throw the tag, when that didn't work, he said it was throwing out what they wanted to do too much (ie I read it as their ball movement), so they just went with it. And look at the result, they lose by 7 goals.

It's not a good indication of their system to be that reliant on a single player. I thought we were reliant on Clarry, but as you say, that's proven to be incorrect.

[Jaded No More 59,739]

24 minutes ago, binman said:

 

All things being equal, the blues  who are down 2 of their 3 mids and have a banged up ruck, will go head to head at some point with Maxy, clarry, tracc and viney.

 

Which is why IMO they've been the second best performing side of the last month, aside from us.

They are playing exceptionally well despite their injury woes.

Port actually performed quite well too on the weekend considering their outs, but Geelong are also missing key players.

Clarry in this week for mine takes the game from 50/50 to 70/30 our way. Because even if he's not in top form or touch, he is 10 times better than the alternative. 

[Binmans PA 26,659]

1 minute ago, Jaded No More said:

Which is why IMO they've been the second best performing side of the last month, aside from us.

They are playing exceptionally well despite their injury woes.

Port actually performed quite well too on the weekend considering their outs, but Geelong are also missing key players.

Clarry in this week for mine takes the game from 50/50 to 70/30 our way. Because even if he's not in top form or touch, he is 10 times better than the alternative. 

I was saying to my Carlton mate (who was laying the groundwork for a Carlton loss due to injuries) that they are a better side without McKay, because they can play a smaller set up around Curnow (who is the better player) and don't get slingshot on as easily. 

I also said that if Clarry gets up, it pushes things in our favour, but if he doesn't our outs are bigger than theirs or at least the equivalent. 

[BDA 20,895]

3 dangerous opponents to finish the H&A season. We’ll do well to win all 3 but I reckon port and lions will drop games as well. I’m confident we’ll finish second. 

[sisso 2,431]

57 minutes ago, binman said:

 

All things being equal, the blues  who are down 2 of their 3 mids and have a banged up ruck, will go head to head at some point with Maxy, clarry, tracc and viney.

Good luck with that.

Carlton are going to really test us I feel, they have dynamic group of small forwards and that's where our defence can be at its most vulnerable - when the ball hits the deck. So I hope our midfield does dominate and limit supply or it could be a difficult evening...

[Jaded No More 59,739]

3 minutes ago, sisso said:

Carlton are going to really test us I feel, they have dynamic group of small forwards and that's where our defence can be at its most vulnerable - when the ball hits the deck. So I hope our midfield does dominate and limit supply or it could be a difficult evening...

I agree, but their weapon is their contested work, which I feel we can better them in.

I think Hibbo needs to play this week because their smalls are terrifyingly good at ground level, and our defence is not. A good week to play a small defensive group, and we always have Smith as a lever to pull down back if we need (he could even matchup on Curnow if we get desperate). 

[binman 39,460]

10 minutes ago, sisso said:

Carlton are going to really test us I feel, they have dynamic group of small forwards and that's where our defence can be at its most vulnerable - when the ball hits the deck. So I hope our midfield does dominate and limit supply or it could be a difficult evening...

I agree the blues will test us.

I rate them very highly.

[OhMyDees 1,397]

As much as I’m sure we’d like easy kills going into finals, what better way to fine tune our game plan by going up against teams on the up?

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,021]

So now they’ve finally announced the last rd. With us playing after the Lions we’ll know exactly how much % we need should we both win our remaining games.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Bombay Airconditioning

[binman 39,460]

1 hour ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

So now they’ve finally announced the last rd. With us playing after the Lions we’ll know exactly how much % we need should we both win our remaining games.

That's a great point.

Can mess with players heads bit i reckon 9lie maybe it did for the bombers against the Eagles?), but still if we have a safe enough lead with say 10 mins to go we can be a bit more aggressive (eg not go into tempo, chip it around mode like we did against the tigers in the last 3 mins or so) than we otherwise might if need be.

[Deestar9 1,429]

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Which is why IMO they've been the second best performing side of the last month, aside from us.

They are playing exceptionally well despite their injury woes.

Port actually performed quite well too on the weekend considering their outs, but Geelong are also missing key players.

Clarry in this week for mine takes the game from 50/50 to 70/30 our way. Because even if he's not in top form or touch, he is 10 times better than the alternative. 

Surely you're not talking about Collingwood. Have a look yourself or listen to First Crack on where they are in game indicators … nowhere near the 2nd best performing team. Diff if you’re talking about Carlton ..,

[Jaded No More 59,739]

11 minutes ago, Deestar9 said:

Surely you're not talking about Collingwood. Have a look yourself or listen to First Crack on where they are in game indicators … nowhere near the 2nd best performing team. Diff if you’re talking about Carlton ..,

I was talking about Carlton being the second best performing side over the last month, along with us.

Pies... pfft! 

[BDA 20,895]

All the fanboys in the media jumping off the pies at breakneck speed. 

And we really need to do the world a favour and beat Carlton on Saturday because all the fanboys are jumping onto them. 

[layzie 30,233]

1 hour ago, BDA said:

All the fanboys in the media jumping off the pies at breakneck speed. 

And we really need to do the world a favour and beat Carlton on Saturday because all the fanboys are jumping onto them. 

Most are except on FC where Lloyd and co pretty much repeated their words of last week. "Loss they need to have", "Good to find out the problems now rather than later" etc.

I think their midfield balance is out of whack now. De Goey is the big one for them and how they decide to use him from here on in will be key.

[leave it to deever 16,550]

Gotta say that Carlton have a pretty good fixture with 17 games at Marvel or the G.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,785]

19 hours ago, A F said:

I was saying to my Carlton mate (who was laying the groundwork for a Carlton loss due to injuries) that they are a better side without McKay, because they can play a smaller set up around Curnow (who is the better player) and don't get slingshot on as easily. 

I also said that if Clarry gets up, it pushes things in our favour, but if he doesn't our outs are bigger than theirs or at least the equivalent. 

McKay should be shifted to defence, would be a solid backline with him and Weitering covering the key posts.

[Binmans PA 26,659]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

McKay should be shifted to defence, would be a solid backline with him and Weitering covering the key posts.

His lack of ground pressure and follow up work would be the query though. Could get shown up majorly at the other end of the ground.

[Binmans PA 26,659]

46 minutes ago, layzie said:

Most are except on FC where Lloyd and co pretty much repeated their words of last week. "Loss they need to have", "Good to find out the problems now rather than later" etc.

I think their midfield balance is out of whack now. De Goey is the big one for them and how they decide to use him from here on in will be key.

They're kidding themselves. You really don't want to find out at Round 21. You want to find out at Round 4 or 5 at the latest, and you've got to have a plan B that you can go to.

So far, Collingwood haven't demonstrated any capacity in game or otherwise, to play a different way. They're only effective when they're attacking the game.

Conversely, we've shown we can win in a hard defensive slog that relies on ground balls, CP and intercept, and we can also win in a stoppage-based, intercept slingshot shoot out. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by A F

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,599]

1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

Gotta say that Carlton have a pretty good fixture with 17 games at Marvel or the G.

Generally what happens when you don't sell a game interstate or get sent to back water venues every other year. 

[Engorged Onion 9,570]

1 hour ago, A F said:

They're kidding themselves. You really don't want to find out at Round 21. You want to find out at Round 4 or 5 at the latest, and you've got to have a plan B that you can go to.

So far, Collingwood haven't demonstrated any capacity in game or otherwise, to play a different way. They're only effective when they're attacking the game.

Conversely, we've shown we can win in a hard defensive slog that relies on ground balls, CP and intercept, and we can also win in a stoppage-based, intercept slingshot shoot out. 

We all know it's window dressing... I'd say the same thing in a press conference if I wanted to reinforce a *cough* 'growth mindset'....

They've got flaws, big ones, and judging by the 'premiership metrics' they're pretty [censored].

Sometimes the eye test, is completely incorrect, a la the lens on Collingwood and probably the current lens on the Dees.

[binman 39,460]

21 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I think a comfortable Collingwood win is more likely than Geelong winning by 20.

Agree.

I will not be surprised if the pies to give the cats a touch up. 

The cats looked slow and old against Port, who just had a nightmare in terms of their outs.

If the cats were the real deal thiis season they would have hammered port at home, even with their two big our in Hawkins and blicavs.

That said, even if they do win well, it will surely be yet another physical, tough game for the pies.

The cats will use the same tactics of ageing teams accross every suburban comp - play to hurt the young bucks with plenty of sharp elbows and extra mayo on their hits and tackles.

There's no tommorow for the cats - it's basically an elimination final.

And then the pies have to front up Fridsy week against a desperate and hard at it Lions outfit.

And not at their comfort zone ground where they can use their leg speed and ability to spread (not to mention the benefit of 80k screaming fans), but at the smaller docklands.

All on the back of the back of three uber draining games against Port, blues and cats. And without daicos and murphy.

Big test for a team that many  annoited as the best team in the AFL by some margin. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by binman

[whatwhat say what 20,281]

2 minutes ago, binman said:

Agree.

I will not be surprised if the pies to give the cats a touch up. 

The cats looked slow and old against Port, who just had a nightmare in terms of their outs.

If the cats were the real deal thiis season they would have hammered port at home, even with their two big our in Hawkins and blicavs.

That said, even if they do win well, it will surely be yet another physical, tough game for the pies.

The cats will use the same tactics of ageing teams accross every suburban comp - play to hurt the young bucks with plenty of sharp elbows and extra mayo on their hits and tackles.

There's no tommorow for the cats - it's basically an elimination final.

And then the pies have to front up Fridsy week against a desperate and hard at it Lions outfit.

And not at their comfort zone ground where they can use their leg speed and ability to spread (not to mention the benefit of 80k screaming fans), but at the smaller docklands.

All on the back of threw uber draining games against Port, blues and cats. And without daicos and murphy.

Big test for a team that many  annoited as the best team in the AFL by some margin.

reckon the mfc are gunning for top spot, @binman?