The Run Home

[leave it to deever 17,517]

10 minutes ago, binman said:

The Pies winning this years flag is wipeout event for the bookies.

But if they don't win it, the bookies will be partying like its 1999

Interesting insight to betting. Thanks for that analysis. 

[Jibroni 5,009]

13 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Thanks Jibroni.

Totally forgot that. I guess it's a pretty big cat amongst the pigeons.

Also both Lions and Port have big home success and as it sits Lions will probably get the home gig. I certainly don't want us to play either of them. 

I'm also thinking there's a strong chance gws and blues play each other in the last round and first week of finals. 

 

I also would not be surprised if the Saints pull off a Ross Lyon special and beat Brisbane.

[leave it to deever 17,517]

6 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

I also would not be surprised if the Saints pull off a Ross Lyon special and beat Brisbane.

That may leave us finishing third and traveling to Adelaide to play in our first final.

I wonder if it happens we will rest players against the Swans.

[old55 23,687]

Squiggle has us winning the flag:

https://live.squiggle.com.au/# - see Forecast tab

I think we will if we beat Collingwood in the QF, if not it's going to hard.

Edited August 23, 2023 by old55

[dazzledavey36 55,315]

16 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

 

Well according to champion data, they agree with me also.

@Jaded No More

Forgot to post link.

 

[Jaded No More 68,972]

37 minutes ago, old55 said:

Squiggle has us winning the flag:

https://live.squiggle.com.au/# - see Forecast tab

I think we will if we beat Collingwood in the QF, if not it's going to hard.

I agree. If we beat the Pies in week one (which we absolutely can especially if Daicos doesn’t get up), then we will more than likely end up playing a prelim at the G against an interstate side. Which opens up our chances significantly of making the grand final.

Lose that game however and the road is paved with danger and interstate prelim. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,935]

14 hours ago, monoccular said:

In the very unlikely event that we finish 2nd, and Carlton and Saints 5 and 6, how do we fit 4 finals at the MCG in three days?

Or would the Saints have to play at Docklands?

Very unlikely scenario, but they would put St Kilda V Sydney or GWS at Marvel.

In 2011 they had the exact same issue and ended up playing St Kilda V Sydney at Marvel.

If the AFL were desperate to avoid a Marvel final, then they'd have to play a Sunday final.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,935]

Any chance Port throws this weekend's game against Richmond to finish 4th and avoid the GABBA?

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,084]

13 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Any chance Port throws this weekend's game against Richmond to finish 4th and avoid the GABBA?

Doubt it, Collingwood smashed them at the G early this season

[old55 23,687]

17 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Any chance Port throws this weekend's game against Richmond to finish 4th and avoid the GABBA?

Do you think they're worried that Brisbane might tear them apart at the Gabba?

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,708]

19 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Any chance Port throws this weekend's game against Richmond to finish 4th and avoid the GABBA?

Do they really want to throw a game this close to finals? Richmond have packed up for the year.

I can't see it happening, but i suppose everything is in play.

 

[fr_ap 2,529]

2 hours ago, old55 said:

Squiggle has us winning the flag:

https://live.squiggle.com.au/# - see Forecast tab

I think we will if we beat Collingwood in the QF, if not it's going to hard.

The amazing thing shown here is how much worse every team (including us) is compared to many premiership winning teams. Vs our 2021 side, we are worse defensively and significantly worse offensively. 

Also a function of how even it is across the board - in that no team has dominated for the whole year (and therefore everyone has pulled down each other's ranking)

Edited August 23, 2023 by fr_ap

[old55 23,687]

3 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

The amazing thing shown here is how much worse every team (including us) is compared to many premiership winning teams. Vs our 2021 side, we are worse defensively and significantly worse offensively. 

Also a function of how even it is across the board - in that no team has dominated for the whole year (and therefore everyone has pulled down each other's ranking)

It often looks like that each year but teams rankings shoot up with good finals wins and come into the historical flag range.

[Jaded No More 68,972]

55 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Doubt it, Collingwood smashed them at the G early this season

Exactly. If Brisbane lose, which is not out of the realms of possibility, they'll go all out to secure a home final. If Brisbane win, they are pretty much in a no win situation because they have to travel for their first final anyway. Doubt they'd flirt with form, when their form has only been so so recently.

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Jaded No More

[Stu 969]

1 hour ago, old55 said:

It often looks like that each year but teams rankings shoot up with good finals wins and come into the historical flag range.

Adding to this, that’s exactly what we did in the 2021 finals. Had huge scores and winning margins in the prelim and grand final. 
 

After 22 games in 2021 our average points for was 86, compared to 91 this year. Points against was 66 in 2021 versus 73 this year. Net difference is 2021 was 2 points better off per game. Not much. 

[Roost it far 8,575]

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Any chance Port throws this weekend's game against Richmond to finish 4th and avoid the GABBA?

Yes, absolutely

[binman 43,717]

22 hours ago, binman said:

An interesting question is what prices, with all their analysts and access to data etc, the bookies would set right now if they reframed the market (ie created a brand new, no bets yet, flag market).  

Good question binman.

As a long time punter on the ponies i have key metrics i put great stock in when doing my form and assessing the 'true odds' of each runner in order to determine who i'll back.  

So for example i put a lot of weight first and second up form (for horses in their first or second race after a break), handicap rating, racing pattern, record at the track, record at the distance and record in the track conditions (ie good, slow, heavy). 

I take the same approach to my football analysis in terms of predicting the flag winner. The key things i weight highly (my premiership metrics if you like) are, in order of significance:

• Injury
• Fitness
• System
• List strength
• Deefence 
• Experience in finals
• Recent form

For this exercise i'm setting a fresh market for the flag (ie no best yet) and therefore the odds of each team winning the flag too. 

I have given a score for each team out of ten in each category to help illustrate how i have come to my conclusion. These ratings are obviously subjective. 

Team	Best 22 injured	Fitness	System	Defence win GFs	Experience in finals	List strength	Recent form	My price
Dees	8   Fritter Petty Brown? Tmac?	10	10	10   Averaging only 10 points per loss	10	10	9	4.00   Implied probability is 25% we’ll win the flag
Lions	8   Ashcroft Gunston	9	9	8   25.3 points per loss	9	9	8	4.50
Pies	6   Daicos Moore Sidebottom	7	6	7   21.5 points per loss Defensively getting worse in last month	7	8	5	6.00
Port	9   Georgiades Clurey	8	6	4   35.5 points per loss   13th for points against – last team outside of top 5 points against to win the flag Roos mid 90s	9	8	6	7.00
Blues	5   Cerra Silvagni Zac Williams McGovern Kennedy Mackay Walsh (back in this week maybe)	8	10	7   26.5 points per loss (but improved massively)   Only the top 4 teams have a realistic at winning the flag.   In the last 25 years, only two teams have won a flag from outside top 4 - dogs in 2016 (the first year of the pre final bye) and crows in 2018	3	8	10	9.00

 

 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by binman

[Deefender 232]

5 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Any chance Port throws this weekend's game against Richmond to finish 4th and avoid the GABBA?

You have to ask the question.

[Diamond_Jim 12,624]

6 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Very unlikely scenario, but they would put St Kilda V Sydney or GWS at Marvel.

In 2011 they had the exact same issue and ended up playing St Kilda V Sydney at Marvel.

If the AFL were desperate to avoid a Marvel final, then they'd have to play a Sunday final.

In 2011 they didn't own Docklands like they do now so it's a little easier but I think you are correct. Also impacted by the relative break for the teams playing the next week.

(in 2011 the Docklands deal allowed the AFL not to play finals there on the condition that it was made up in future years. I don't think they ever did before they bought it for a few dollars.)

[speed demon 818]

4 hours ago, binman said:

Good question binman.

As a long time punter on the ponies i have key metrics i put great stock in when doing my form and assessing the 'true odds' of each runner in order to determine who i'll back.  

So for example i put a lot of weight first and second up form (for horses in their first or second race after a break), handicap rating, racing pattern, record at the track, record at the distance and record in the track conditions (ie good, slow, heavy). 

I take the same approach to my football analysis in terms of predicting the flag winner. The key things i weight highly (my premiership metrics if you like) are, in order of significance:

• Injury
• Fitness
• System
• List strength
• Deefence 
• Experience in finals
• Recent form

For this exercise i'm setting a fresh market for the flag (ie no best yet) and therefore the odds of each team winning the flag too. 

I have given a score for each team out of ten in each category to help illustrate how i have come to my conclusion. These ratings are obviously subjective. 

Team	Best 22 injured	Fitness	System	Defence win GFs	Experience in finals	List strength	Recent form	My price
Dees	8   Fritter Petty Brown? Tmac?	10	10	10   Averaging only 10 points per loss	10	10	9	4.00   Implied probability is 25% we’ll win the flag
Lions	8   Ashcroft Gunston	9	9	8   25.3 points per loss	9	9	8	5.50
Pies	6   Daicos Moore Sidebottom	7	6	7   21.5 points per loss Defensively getting worse in last month	7	8	5	6.00
Port	9   Georgiades Clurey	8	6	4   35.5 points per loss   13th for points against – last team outside of top 5 points against to win the flag Roos mid 90s	9	8	6	7.00
Blues	5   Cerra Silvagni Zac Williams McGovern Kennedy Mackay Walsh (back in this week maybe)	8	10	7   26.5 points per loss (but improved massively)   Only the top 4 teams have a realistic at winning the flag.   In the last 25 years, only two teams have won a flag from outside top 4 - dogs in 2016 (the first year of the pre final bye) and crows in 2018	3	8	10	9.00

 

 

 

 

@binman, I like your system and enjoy reading your assessments.

I'm not much of a punter - the last bet I placed prior to backing the Dees for the flag at $7 after the Saints win was Michael Shelley to win the Gold Coast marathon at the Commonwealth Games in 2018 at $35 - but I do like probability. I have two critiques to offer. 

First, this is a great system for assessing a teams probability of winning the flag isolation. I think it is particularly useful mid-season when there is a reasonable sample of exposed form. However, a limitation of this system is the lack of consideration for a team's key flag rivals (e.g. how they match up, home ground advantage) and for a team's likely path through the finals. At this time of year, this a particularly important factor to consider. For example, if Collingwood finish first and we finish fourth, as seems likely, we are set up for an excellent run through the finals. I would say we are favourites. In contrast, if Brisbane finish first and we finish fourth, we have a harder assignment and I would argue our probability of winning the flag decreases and Brisbane's increases. As an aside, If Brisbane finish top two, I would say they have the greatest probability of making the grand final (given their two home finals). 

Second, you are offering generous odds! The sum of the the implied probability for Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Carlton equals ~85%. This would imply that there is a 15% probability of St Kilda, Sydney, GWS or Bulldogs winning, which I think is too high.  I would have Brisbane at $4.25 instead of $5.50 (implied probability of 23.5% cf 18%). Though if you're offering $5.50 for Brisbane, I would be happy to layoff...

Thanks for your post!

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

Here’s a thought - If Josh Kelly misses that goal in Alice Springs and the goal umpire did his job at the G against the Blues, we would be on top of the AFL ladder.
 

There is absolutely nothing in it. Sitting 4th is a statistical anomaly. 

[Kent 2,913]

15 hours ago, Stu said:

Adding to this, that’s exactly what we did in the 2021 finals. Had huge scores and winning margins in the prelim and grand final. 
 

After 22 games in 2021 our average points for was 86, compared to 91 this year. Points against was 66 in 2021 versus 73 this year. Net difference is 2021 was 2 points better off per game. Not much. 

never let facts get in the way of a good story🙂

[Roost it far 8,575]

7 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Here’s a thought - If Josh Kelly misses that goal in Alice Springs and the goal umpire did his job at the G against the Blues, we would be on top of the AFL ladder.
 

There is absolutely nothing in it. Sitting 4th is a statistical anomaly. 

And if the Suns player doesn’t miss from 30m and the Lions kick one more goal we’re back to fourth. Maybe first was a statistical anomaly 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

24 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

And if the Suns player doesn’t miss from 30m and the Lions kick one more goal we’re back to fourth. Maybe first was a statistical anomaly 

My outcome is better. But it gets you thinking, if one were to use the expected scores across the whole season, I wonder what that would look like.

I know we probably lose the Lions and Suns games. But I think we win Blues, GWS and possibly Port games. Then there are the other teams…

[binman 43,717]

11 hours ago, speed demon said:

@binman, I like your system and enjoy reading your assessments.

I'm not much of a punter - the last bet I placed prior to backing the Dees for the flag at $7 after the Saints win was Michael Shelley to win the Gold Coast marathon at the Commonwealth Games in 2018 at $35 - but I do like probability. I have two critiques to offer. 

First, this is a great system for assessing a teams probability of winning the flag isolation. I think it is particularly useful mid-season when there is a reasonable sample of exposed form. However, a limitation of this system is the lack of consideration for a team's key flag rivals (e.g. how they match up, home ground advantage) and for a team's likely path through the finals. At this time of year, this a particularly important factor to consider. For example, if Collingwood finish first and we finish fourth, as seems likely, we are set up for an excellent run through the finals. I would say we are favourites. In contrast, if Brisbane finish first and we finish fourth, we have a harder assignment and I would argue our probability of winning the flag decreases and Brisbane's increases. As an aside, If Brisbane finish top two, I would say they have the greatest probability of making the grand final (given their two home finals). 

Second, you are offering generous odds! The sum of the the implied probability for Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Carlton equals ~85%. This would imply that there is a 15% probability of St Kilda, Sydney, GWS or Bulldogs winning, which I think is too high.  I would have Brisbane at $4.25 instead of $5.50 (implied probability of 23.5% cf 18%). Though if you're offering $5.50 for Brisbane, I would be happy to layoff...

Thanks for your post!

Yep, all good points, particularly about where the games in the first week of finals are played. 

I def factor that in to my assessment, but that usually doesn't become clear until close to the finals. But def should be a metric.

You're right about me being too generous on the lions.

I actually did that table a couple of weeks ago, after our loss to the blues, to inform a response to a question on the podcast.  And didnt update the odds.

At that point the lions had to beat the pies to get a home final. I noted my odds would change if they did. Same for port if they managed to get a home final, but less impact because their home ground advantage is not as big imo.

The most probable scenario is the ladder stays as is for the top 4. But there is still a bit to play out.

Saints could roll lions, and if they do the lions could slip to 4th if port win.

If port and lions both lose and we win we will get to 2nd and play lions at the g.

I'd prefer to play the pies to be honest, so it's weird to say but happy to finish 4th.

And it is far from impossible that we will come into the swans game knowing a win means we play our first final interstate. I hope not, because that creates a weird energy for the game.

But, I think you are spot on about the correct price for the lions. Almost. 

5.50 is way too long with the probability they get a final at the gabba in week one (bad news for the saints because the lions have a huge incentive to win).

4.25 for the lions it is!

Actually, i'll make them 4.50 because as strong as their form is at the Gabba, their form at the G is terrible.

My theory is the g exposes their lack of leg speed, an issue that is greatly exacerbated by losing their quickest mid in Ashcroft. And even though its not a hoodoo ground, given the grand fianls is at the G, it can't help to run out for a GF with the hoodoo in the back of your mind

The purpose of such an exercise from a punting perspective is trying to find a value bet ie can the punter secure a price that is better than the true price (as defined by the punter).

Winning punting is about finding the value not the winner.

The pies are 3.75, so on my market well unders. 

At 4.50 the lions are over the 4.00 bookies are paying. No joy there.

Port are 6.00 and blues 8.00. Forget about it.

I have the dees priced at 4.00 and you can get 4.50 with the bookies.

So, the only value bet remains the dees, albeit not the great value it was when we got out to a ridiculous 8.00 after our gws loss.

Edited August 24, 2023 by binman