The Run Home

[Cheap Seats 3,310]

1 hour ago, YearOfTheDees said:

AFL really need the Giants to win this weekend if only to afford the Crows going off all summer long. Will The Blues help out and repay the AFL for all the help this year. That's just tongue in cheek but they might need covid back to stop them storming the border on the way to AFL house. 

If GWS get up they could play the Blues again in first week of the finals

[Macca 16,972]

23 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Rest and probability Macca.

One more game = one more chance of loss.

Going forward the 5-8 teams could taste success simply because the AFL have managed somehow to level the competition.

On the latter point I'm not sure I'm a fan of levelling to the degree we now see it. Makes for a long season with finals being an add on determined by luck and injury (vide our forward line). Somewhat irrelevant though as it keeps the TV and the AFL happy.

The AFL might try and make the pathway easier for those teams finishing 5th to 8th but I'm not sure how you would do that without compromising the system we have now

However, we might see more EF winners reach the PF as the years go on

For instance, I can possibly see Carlton winning 2 finals and maybe even GWS as well as long as they actually make the 8

Right now, there's not that much between all the finalists as compared to other seasons

[binman 42,984]

The nightmare Collywobbles scenario.

They Pies play the dees at the G in front of a sold out crowd. 

They rush  Moore and Daicos back. Both struggle and get hit from pillar to post. Will they come up?

The dees beat them in a tough, physical encounter (and because the pies don't have premiership winning defensive system).

The blues beat GWS week one of finals.

The Pies play the Blues at the G in front of a sold out crowd. 

They select a clearly struggling Moore and Daicos back. Both struggle and get hit from pillar to post. 

The blues beat them in a tough, physical encounter (and because the pies don't have premiership winning defensive system).

And this 'great' pies team is out of the finals in straight sets.

Might test Mcrae's famous positivity. 

 

Edited August 21, 2023 by binman

[biggestred 5,093]

Hi

Just popping in to say that collingwood played geelong twice at the mcg and won both in tight games

We played them in geelong and lost

If theyd played once in geelong theyd have lost that

If we'd played them at the mcg we'd have won

This would put all 4 teams on 64 points with us on top on %age

 

Stuff the afl and their "fixture"

Edited August 21, 2023 by biggestred

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

5 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Tigers could beat Port, Port IMO are overrated and it’s a send off for a few Tigers. 
 

Saints over Lions would be massive, can’t see it happening but stranger things have happened.

Richmond defeating Port in Adelaide. Can't see that happening. Look what Port did to GWS in Round 22. Maybe if it was at the MCG. St Kilda defeating Brisbane also very unlikely but more of a possibility. The chances of both happening on current Sportsbet odds roughly 25/1.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,396]

33 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Richmond defeating Port in Adelaide. Can't see that happening. Look what Port did to GWS in Round 22. Maybe if it was at the MCG. St Kilda defeating Brisbane also very unlikely but more of a possibility. The chances of both happening on current Sportsbet odds roughly 25/1.

I thought Tigers v Port was at the G, my bad.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

16 hours ago, Macca said:

Also, in that final 4 system, the winner of the first semi got a 2 week break before playing the loser of the 2nd semi (who only got a 1 week break in comparison)

The overall results indicate that winning the 2nd semi was a big advantage

And with the final 8, the QF has over time become an extremely important game to win

In the modern game, fresh legs, rest and recovery is a big deal in our sport but perhaps it always has been

Just history repeating itself, SD?

27 of 41 GFs won by winner of 2SF (2 weeks vs 1 week break. Played 1 final in Week 2).
25 of 41 PFs won by loser of the 2SF (1 week break vs 2 weeks break. Played 1 final in Week 2 vs 1 final in Week 1). 
Loser of 2SF has surprisingly good record in PF. Maybe having that break in Week 1 gave teams the opportunity to freshen up and meant the lack of gap between Weeks 2 & 3 wasn't an issue but then told against them in the GF.
18 of 27 GFs won by winner of 2SF were the top team, 9 2nd team. The other 14 GF were won by losing 2SF (Ist team 5, 2nd team 5) with 4 won from 1SF (4th team, no winners from 3rd). What does this all mean? I'm not sure but maybe in the era of 12 Victorian teams there were big gaps in the abilities between teams so top teams were so much better than lower teams that they won anyway.

I think you can make comparisons between the 1/2 vs 3/4 groupings 1931-1971 and the 1/2/3/4 vs 5/6/7/8 groupings 2000-2022. Clearly it's hard to win when you have no 2nd chance and have to win all your finals. That's why Top 4 is  so important. I would normally say Top 3 but not this year because Collingwood-Melbourne are evenly-matched and there's no home ground advantage.

[Macca 16,972]

58 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

27 of 41 GFs won by winner of 2SF (2 weeks vs 1 week break. Played 1 final in Week 2).
25 of 41 PFs won by loser of the 2SF (1 week break vs 2 weeks break. Played 1 final in Week 2 vs 1 final in Week 1). 
Loser of 2SF has surprisingly good record in PF. Maybe having that break in Week 1 gave teams the opportunity to freshen up and meant the lack of gap between Weeks 2 & 3 wasn't an issue but then told against them in the GF.
18 of 27 GFs won by winner of 2SF were the top team, 9 2nd team. The other 14 GF were won by losing 2SF (Ist team 5, 2nd team 5) with 4 won from 1SF (4th team, no winners from 3rd). What does this all mean? I'm not sure but maybe in the era of 12 Victorian teams there were big gaps in the abilities between teams so top teams were so much better than lower teams that they won anyway.

I think you can make comparisons between the 1/2 vs 3/4 groupings 1931-1971 and the 1/2/3/4 vs 5/6/7/8 groupings 2000-2022. Clearly it's hard to win when you have no 2nd chance and have to win all your finals. That's why Top 4 is  so important. I would normally say Top 3 but not this year because Collingwood-Melbourne are evenly-matched and there's no home ground advantage.

Excellent points and well researched, SD

My observation of the double chance for finishing 4 is that more and more supporters view that opportunity not as a fail-safe (if the QF is lost) but as a real chance to win the QF and therefore have a much greater chance of playing in a GF

Because as soon as a QF is lost, a feeling of dread emerges.  You get a 2nd chance but that pathway means that a PF berth means you're up against a well rested opponent (if you get that far)

So personally, I view the QF as a must win

[Demon17 5,188]

2 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Richmond defeating Port in Adelaide. Can't see that happening. Look what Port did to GWS in Round 22. Maybe if it was at the MCG. St Kilda defeating Brisbane also very unlikely but more of a possibility. The chances of both happening on current Sportsbet odds roughly 25/1.

Jack and Trent aren't going to Adelaide. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

7 hours ago, Macca said:

Excellent points and well researched, SD

My observation of the double chance for finishing 4 is that more and more supporters view that opportunity not as a fail-safe (if the QF is lost) but as a real chance to win the QF and therefore have a much greater chance of playing in a GF

Because as soon as a QF is lost, a feeling of dread emerges.  You get a 2nd chance but that pathway means that a PF berth means you're up against a well rested opponent (if you get that far)

So personally, I view the QF as a must win

I don't think that really explains it. Firstly, playing against well-rested opponents in PFs (winning QFists) applies for all winners of SFs and yet 14 Premiers have come from 2nd/3rd and only 8 from 1st/4th since 2000. No side has won from 4th and yet 7 sides have won from 3rd.

But I do agree that a QF is almost a must-win for Melbourne. Hard to win if you lose a QF, then have to beat Carlton (most likely), then Brisbane (most likely) at the Gabba and then a GF against Collingwood (most likely). Much easier winning against Collingwood, Adelaide & Brisbane, all at the MCG. 

[Macca 16,972]

12 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

But I do agree that a QF is almost a must-win for Melbourne. Hard to win if you lose a QF, then have to beat Carlton (most likely), then Brisbane (most likely) at the Gabba and then a GF against Collingwood (most likely). Much easier winning against Collingwood, Adelaide & Brisbane, all at the MCG. 

13 of the last 16 Grand Final winners also won their QF

So the odds are well and truly in the QF winners corner

[Great Northern Summer 708]

1 hour ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I don't think that really explains it. Firstly, playing against well-rested opponents in PFs (winning QFists) applies for all winners of SFs and yet 14 Premiers have come from 2nd/3rd and only 8 from 1st/4th since 2000. No side has won from 4th and yet 7 sides have won from 3rd.

But I do agree that a QF is almost a must-win for Melbourne. Hard to win if you lose a QF, then have to beat Carlton (most likely), then Brisbane (most likely) at the Gabba and then a GF against Collingwood (most likely). Much easier winning against Collingwood, Adelaide & Brisbane, all at the MCG. 

Suspect you may have cut and pasted that post from last week… unless you expect Adelaide to launch and succeed in Supreme Court proceedings overturning the Sydney loss. Adelaide ain’t making a semi final let alone the finals. I totally agree with your point and logic though. St Kilda probably replace Adelaide though in your comment…

[Great Northern Summer 708]

54 minutes ago, Macca said:

13 of the last 16 Grand Final winners also won their QF

So the odds are well and truly in the QF winners corner

From memory 2005 and 2006 were opposites from each other. Swans lost the QF but won the flag in 2005, vice versa in 2006. Let me guess the three though in that time period… Tigers lost in 2020 to the Bears. Hawks lost to the Eagles in 2015. Cats lost to the Saints in 2009.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,221]

5 hours ago, Glorious Day said:

From memory 2005 and 2006 were opposites from each other. Swans lost the QF but won the flag in 2005, vice versa in 2006. Let me guess the three though in that time period… Tigers lost in 2020 to the Bears. Hawks lost to the Eagles in 2015. Cats lost to the Saints in 2009.

Not Cats in 09, they beat Dogs in QF from memory. Dogs in 2016 came from 7th.

[Macca 16,972]

6 hours ago, Glorious Day said:

From memory 2005 and 2006 were opposites from each other. Swans lost the QF but won the flag in 2005, vice versa in 2006. Let me guess the three though in that time period… Tigers lost in 2020 to the Bears. Hawks lost to the Eagles in 2015. Cats lost to the Saints in 2009.

In the last 16 seasons only 3 of the flag winners didn't win a QF

Hawks in 2015, Bulldogs in 2016 and the Tigers in 2020

So the 3 aberrations are in fact that, aberrations.  Not the norm.  And in the case of the Hawks & Tigers, both were champion teams heading for their 3rd flag in a short space of time

The only real outlier was the Bulldogs and in their case, their players were trained to the minute with regards to exploiting the holding the ball rule ... ball dribbles free in a tackle and then regained by another Bulldog - rinse and repeat with no penalty (an AFL rules of the game issue, not the fault of the umpires)

So if we're looking for a pattern, follow the norm.  But sports fans can have high hopes at times.  A bit like punters on the horses

But as previously stated, if we lose a QF final, there's still hope but the odds are against you.  And deep down, most know that

Thus, there lies the importance of winning a QF.  You don't want to lose that game even though you do get a 2nd chance

Edited August 21, 2023 by Macca

[layzie 33,813]

Not to mention if we lose the 1st v 4th game we end up on the interstate side of the draw.

Just win baby.

Edited August 21, 2023 by layzie

[Macca 16,972]

37 minutes ago, layzie said:

Not to mention if we lose the 1st v 4th game we end up on the interstate side of the draw.

Just win baby.

4th will probably happen for us, layz, but I can see the Saints maybe beating the Lions and if we're fair dinkum, we should beat the Swans

The Saints are playing for a home final and if they lose, they might have to fly interstate for an EF

Port should beat Richmond

But if the above occurs, the Lions would almost certainly slip to 4th and we'd end up in 3rd spot (on percentage)

Pies can win or lose and still finish on top (if Brisbane lose)

There's still a bit to play out especially if the news coming out of the club that we're going flat-out against the Swans is true (I wonder?)

The one thing in our favour is that by the time our game comes around, we'll know all the permutations

Edited August 21, 2023 by Macca

[layzie 33,813]

8 minutes ago, Macca said:

4th will probably happen for us, layz, but I can see the Saints maybe beating the Lions and if we're fair dinkum, we should beat the Swans

The Saints are playing for a home final and if they lose, they might have to fly interstate for an EF

Port should beat Richmond

But if the above occurs, the Lions would almost certainly slip to 4th and we'd end up in 3rd spot (on percentage)

Pies can win or lose and still finish on top (if Brisbane lose)

There's still a bit to play out especially if the news coming out of the club that we're going flat-out against the Swans is true (I wonder?)

The one thing in our favour is that by the time our game comes around, we'll know all the permutations

Yes, we've got the benefit of knowing what we're dealing with. 

For me a road trip to Adelaide is slightly better than one to Brisbane. Not fazed by the hostile environment and I think we play that ground pretty well.

[Macca 16,972]

1 minute ago, layzie said:

Yes, we've got the benefit of knowing what we're dealing with. 

For me a road trip to Adelaide is slightly better than one to Brisbane. Not fazed by the hostile environment and I think we play that ground pretty well.

I reckon the Pies & Port win but St Kilda is the wild-card.  But there again, the Lions will be going flat-out to secure a home QF

Still and all, we might be faced with the dilemma of win and we play Port away or lose and we play against the Maggies at the MCG

But I'm the same, not too concerned with going to Port in a QF but would rather the Pies on our home ground (in a QF)

[Dr. Gonzo 24,221]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

In the last 16 seasons only 3 of the flag winners didn't win a QF

Hawks in 2015, Bulldogs in 2016 and the Tigers in 2020

So the 3 aberrations are in fact that, aberrations.  Not the norm. 

Although it's also 3 of the last 8 seasons so maybe things have tightened up compared to the years prior to 2015?

[Roost it far 8,277]

Whilst I’m really hoping results fall our way and we get the Pies in a QF can you imagine the stress levels around here that week? It’ll be off tap. Then when we win it’ll be glory glory hallelujah! Could be the greatest week we’ve had since 21

[Demonstone 22,558]

2 hours ago, Roost it far said:

can you imagine the stress levels around here that week?

It gets worse, @Roost it far.  With the pre-finals bye, we'll be stewing for two weeks.

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,799]

I should know this, but I need help.

If we beat Collingwood in the Qf, then the loser of the other QF gets back to the preliminary final( Port or Bris)....who gets the home final? Dees because we won our first final, or Port(or Bris) because they finished above us?

 

[Diamond_Jim 12,590]

32 minutes ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

I should know this, but I need help.

If we beat Collingwood in the Qf, then the loser of the other QF gets back to the preliminary final( Port or Bris)....who gets the home final? Dees because we won our first final, or Port(or Bris) because they finished above us?

 

The winners of the QF's get home PF's

[Chook 15,013]

37 minutes ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

I should know this, but I need help.

If we beat Collingwood in the Qf, then the loser of the other QF gets back to the preliminary final( Port or Bris)....who gets the home final? Dees because we won our first final, or Port(or Bris) because they finished above us?

 

Dees. It's the winner of that qualilfying final that gets the home final, regardless of ladder position.