The Run Home

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,806]

13 hours ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

If we win all our games and get some percentage v. North,, and Collingwood lose all theirs.....we're minor premiers again!

On further ( ok…..a fraction optimistic) reflection, if the Pie lose three of their  four, and don’t beat the Hawks by much, and we win all ours, including a big percentage booster v.North, we probably finish on top!!!9

[58er 6,538]

3 hours ago, redandbluemakepurple said:

The Petty shall bear us up to Glory!

I am most impressed that the FD wanted Petty forward and trained him up to do so as opposed some hare-brained scheme to recruit a fading star.

Who are you implicating with this comment?  Fading star who has suggested that? MFC haven't  and name one anyway? 

And if you are having a go at BBB then that's unfair. He helped us win in 2021 and owes us nothing more if he has to retire due to his knee fitness issues. 

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

On 8/1/2023 at 5:44 AM, A F said:

Wasn't sure where to put this, so this thread seems as relevant as anywhere.

This article mirrors my own views expressed elsewhere on Demonland.

This is very likely an unsustainable approach for a premier, and note the team who has led most often at 3/4 time since the start of 2022.

Fire or flop? Pies' custom comebacks proving risky business - https://www.afl.com.au/news/992405

Well. 

Given their record with these tactics over the past two years and the fact that they were within a kick of a grand final last year, it's clear they're not a flop. Isn't it? Lol.

And as far as odds go. Let's take this weekend as an example.

Geelong Vs Port.

Adelaide Vs Gold Coast.

Bulldogs Vs Richmond.

All of those games' odds are out of whack and I'd suggest that their formlines suggest those odds should be more even.

You are the nuff. Lord of them.

 

 

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

21 hours ago, rjay said:

That's a very odd statement 'Jimmy'.

I'm not a gambler but even I know that odds reflect many things, form line being the big one.

I mean ladder position is a simple reflection of form line.

They reflect Home Ground advantage and ladder position almost always over form. Look at the odds for games this week.

 

20 hours ago, rpfc said:

I don’t think that the general confidence in beating NM, a depleted Carlton, lowly Hawthorn or a Sydney who’s season might be over really deserves a ‘wowsy’… 

Especially, when you are criticising ‘Demonland’ of being optimistic…

And no one deserves a ‘wowsy’

Even if Sydney's season was over, do you think they wouldn't be 'up' for arguably the games greatest player's last game (if he was playing)?

And Carlton missing a host of players.. Do you not remember last year's game against them at the G? The one where they were missing a host of first choice players and we got away with one thanks to Kosi?

Of course it's a wowsy.

It's all a wowsy. 

And I'll be astonished if we don't lose one from here.

Demonlanders are delusional and it's a wowsy until the cows come home.

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by JimmyGadson

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

17 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

IMO, 3-1 is the "likely" outcome. 4-0 is optimistic, 2-2 is pessimistic.

I think @binman's take on our form is almost as good as it could possibly get, whilst some of what you've said here is unnecessarily negative. "Decimated" Adelaide? We played that game without the game's best midfielder and our best forward. I know Adelaide was missing Rachele, Laird and Doedee but with our outs as well, the gap wasn't really enough to make them "decimated" (they also proceeded to belt Port by 10 goals one week later so it's hardly like other clubs are finding it easy to beat that side).

And focusing on "luck" against Brisbane and Adelaide is fair, because as I've argued all through Collingwood's 2022-23, you need luck to win close games (as well as skill). But it obviously also applies to Collingwood, and other sides who squeak through close games, such as GWS against us.

They lost Rankine who dominated us during the game and another young bloke who did his knee. 

And they still came back in the last quarter whilst we were 4+ goals ahead.

Of course you need luck to win games.

Collingwood have had luck too. But it takes more than 'luck' to have that kind of record in close games.

3-1 is likely for us now, I agree.

But after the last two home and away season, I also know that we have a strange habit of losing games we shouldn't.

So I'm not sure why posters think I'm being negative when we all know Melbourne can do Melbourne things.

[Adam The God 30,403]

4 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Well. 

Given their record with these tactics over the past two years and the fact that they were within a kick of a grand final last year, it's clear they're not a flop. Isn't it? Lol.

And as far as odds go. Let's take this weekend as an example.

Geelong Vs Port.

Adelaide Vs Gold Coast.

Bulldogs Vs Richmond.

All of those games' odds are out of whack and I'd suggest that their formlines suggest those odds should be more even.

You are the nuff. Lord of them.

 

 

I actually have Lord of the Nuffs trademarked, so you've done well to get around it here.

[leave it to deever 17,517]

5 hours ago, 58er said:

Who are you implicating with this comment?  Fading star who has suggested that? MFC haven't  and name one anyway? 

And if you are having a go at BBB then that's unfair. He helped us win in 2021 and owes us nothing more if he has to retire due to his knee fitness issues. 

I'm not having a crack at anyone here but fully agree with you on Bbb.

 I still have some hope he can play again. That aside I've never understood some of the criticism of him. Some of it right from the start. He was a leading j and a goal scorer for three consecutive  years fgs at North. And yes played a huge part in helping us win a flag in 21. I get that he's probably not up to it now but like Tmac it's not a matter of will or form. I believe their downturn has been completely injury related.

[leave it to deever 17,517]

4 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

They reflect Home Ground advantage and ladder position almost always over form. Look at the odds for games this week.

 

Even if Sydney's season was over, do you think they wouldn't be 'up' for arguably the games greatest player's last game (if he was playing)?

And Carlton missing a host of players.. Do you not remember last year's game against them at the G? The one where they were missing a host of first choice players and we got away with one thanks to Kosi?

Of course it's a wowsy.

It's all a wowsy. 

And I'll be astonished if we don't lose one from here.

Demonlanders are delusional and it's a wowsy until the cows come home.

 

Fair call JG. I think odds suggest that you are right. Having said that if we beat the blues and then hawks we will well and truly have some steam up with a lot at stake at the Scg. We don't have a great record there but playing for second spot or would help. Buddy not playing on some super send off doesn't hurt our chances either. Hopefully by then Sydney's finals hopes are mathematically impossible. 

Also how tremendous it would be going into finals with that many wins on the trot with Fritta and Oliver back . I hope this doesn't sound too delusional.😀

Edited August 2, 2023 by leave it to deever

[DeeWhy 0]

Sparrow in for Harmes

Hibberd in for Tomlinson

[rjay 25,063]

4 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

ladder position almost always over form

Surely ladder position is an indication of form?

4 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

And I'll be astonished if we don't lose one from here.

I won't be surprised if we drop one but astonished is a bit of a stretch.

 

4 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

They lost Rankine

With 3 minutes to go...

You've got a bit of Kane Cornes about you 'Jimmy'...

[SPC 3,551]

Highly likely at the end of this round we will be 2nd on the ladder. A game clear of Brisbane and ahead of Port on %. Wow!!

[binman 43,717]

Objective update on the probability of us winning our last four games 

Prior to the Crows game, based on the bookies odds for that game and the Tigers game and my estimate of the likely odds in the remaining games (because the bookies only field markets for the next two upcoming games), the odds of us winning our remaining 6 home and away games was a tick over:

• 9-1.

After the Crows win, using the same formula, those odds dropped to:

• 5-1.

We have four games to go. The bookies have us at 1.10 to beat the Roos, 1.60 to beat the blues (which by the by i had estimated the price would be 1.70 in my calculations for the odds above) and i'm estimating our price for the Hawks game will 1.40 and the Swans game 1.70.

So 1.10 x 1.60 x 1.40 x 1.70 = 4.188.

That translates, after our win over the tiges, the odd of us winning out final four games as aprox:

• 3-1.

I said prior to the Crows and  Tigers games i thought we would go unbeaten for the remainder of the season. And, unsurprisingly i still think we will.

There's actually no market for the bet (ie dees to win its last four games), but if there was i wouldn't take 3-1. Why? Because I think 3-1 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning our final four games and therefore there is no value. 

3-1 seems pretty short. But what's important to remember is that at those odds the probability of us winning our final four games is 25%.  So 75% chance of not winning our final four games.  

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,935]

1 hour ago, SPC said:

Highly likely at the end of this round we will be 2nd on the ladder. A game clear of Brisbane and ahead of Port on %. Wow!!

I’m not sure it’s highly likely Freo beat Brisbane but I hope you’re right.

If Brisbane are serious about winning a flag this year, they’re beating the fourth worst team in the league this weekend.

[Jaded No More 68,972]

3 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I’m not sure it’s highly likely Freo beat Brisbane but I hope you’re right.

If Brisbane are serious about winning a flag this year, they’re beating the fourth worst team in the league this weekend.

Brisbane will beat Freo, but the likely margin of that win should, and I emphasis the word SHOULD, be smaller than our winning margin over the Roos.

By the time our game starts, we will know if Port have lost to Geelong and so the likelihood of 2nd spot will no doubt be firmly in our minds.

I just hope we really put the foot down, as IMO we can only finish 2nd on percentage, as opposed to points. 

I think us, Port and Brisbane could well finish on equal number of points, and it would be devastating to miss out on a home final by a couple of percentage points (Port can't catch us on percentage mind you). 

[brendan 3,437]

3 hours ago, DeeWhy said:

Sparrow in for Harmes

Hibberd in for Tomlinson

Tomlinson won’t be dropped, he now gets the number 1 forward to allow May to play across half forward and play the sweeper role 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

6 hours ago, binman said:

Objective update on the probability of us winning our last four games 

Prior to the Crows game, based on the bookies odds for that game and the Tigers game and my estimate of the likely odds in the remaining games (because the bookies only field markets for the next two upcoming games), the odds of us winning our remaining 6 home and away games was a tick over:

• 9-1.

After the Crows win, using the same formula, those odds dropped to:

• 5-1.

We have four games to go. The bookies have us at 1.10 to beat the Roos, 1.60 to beat the blues (which by the by i had estimated the price would be 1.70 in my calculations for the odds above) and i'm estimating our price for the Hawks game will 1.40 and the Swans game 1.70.

So 1.10 x 1.60 x 1.40 x 1.70 = 4.188.

That translates, after our win over the tiges, the odd of us winning out final four games as aprox:

• 3-1.

I said prior to the Crows and  Tigers games i thought we would go unbeaten for the remainder of the season. And, unsurprisingly i still think we will.

There's actually no market for the bet (ie dees to win its last four games), but if there was i wouldn't take 3-1. Why? Because I think 3-1 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning our final four games and therefore there is no value. 

3-1 seems pretty short. But what's important to remember is that at those odds the probability of us winning our final four games is 25%.  So 75% chance of not winning our final four games.  

What you haven't allowed for in your calculations is the mimumum 5% profit margin that the bookies take on every 2-way bet which meams the true odds are going to me more like:

1.155 x 1.68 x 1.47 x 1.785 = 5.092 = 4-1

That's of course why the betting agencies push the multis, as they get this margin on every bet that goes into the multi which adds up to about a 19% take across 4 bets. And of course the margins on more exotic bets are much much more than 5%!

[rpfc 28,734]

19 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

What you haven't allowed for in your calculations is the mimumum 5% profit margin that the bookies take on every 2-way bet which meams the true odds are going to me more like:

1.155 x 1.68 x 1.47 x 1.785 = 5.092 = 4-1

That's of course why the betting agencies push the multis, as they get this margin on every bet that goes into the multi which adds up to about a 19% take across 4 bets. And of course the margins on more exotic bets are much much more than 5%!

[old55 23,687]

Sounds like Walsh and Cerra out vs Carlton, and Clarrie back.  That will be helpful.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/992970/voss-backs-handling-of-gun-mid-blues-won-t-rush-star

[binman 43,717]

52 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

What you haven't allowed for in your calculations is the mimumum 5% profit margin that the bookies take on every 2-way bet which meams the true odds are going to me more like:

1.155 x 1.68 x 1.47 x 1.785 = 5.092 = 4-1

That's of course why the betting agencies push the multis, as they get this margin on every bet that goes into the multi which adds up to about a 19% take across 4 bets. And of course the margins on more exotic bets are much much more than 5%!

Indeed.

There's no mystery why they promote multis to the exclusion of almost every other bet type.

And bet with mates? Please. Another way to throw money at em

[Jaded No More 68,972]

42 minutes ago, old55 said:

Sounds like Walsh and Cerra out vs Carlton, and Clarrie back.  That will be helpful.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/992970/voss-backs-handling-of-gun-mid-blues-won-t-rush-star

That helps enormously, because Carlton is a very good contested side, and like us, that is their strength. 

We might see Grundy return next week. We can exploit them in the ruck and put further pressure on them if we play two strong rucks against Pitonett. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by Jaded No More

[Adam The God 30,403]

7 hours ago, brendan said:

Tomlinson won’t be dropped, he now gets the number 1 forward to allow May to play across half forward and play the sweeper role 

Maybe it's being pedantic, but a sweeper role (aka the goalkeeper) plays behind the final defensive line, so unless we're playing no player inside our defensive 50, May won't be playing a sweeper role. He might play as a pure interceptor though.

And it sounds like Tomlinson won't play. It'll be Smith for him and Hibbo as sub. If @Dannyz says it, thus it must be.

[58er 6,538]

11 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

I'm not having a crack at anyone here but fully agree with you on Bbb.

 I still have some hope he can play again. That aside I've never understood some of the criticism of him. Some of it right from the start. He was a leading j and a goal scorer for three consecutive  years fgs at North. And yes played a huge part in helping us win a flag in 21. I get that he's probably not up to it now but like Tmac it's not a matter of will or form. I believe their downturn has been completely injury related.

Agree litb injury is a cruel beast! 
maybe Tmac can return to be 3rd tall defender if Tommo is not quite I up to it. 

[Jibroni 5,009]

8 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Brisbane will beat Freo, but the likely margin of that win should, and I emphasis the word SHOULD, be smaller than our winning margin over the Roos.

 

I would not write off the Dockers, they were good last week and with a coach trying to keep his combined with Brisbane's away form I give them a real shot.

As for Port, they have copped a hiding from the local media this week which usually means they will use this as motivation and beat the scum.

[Jaded No More 68,972]

1 hour ago, Jibroni said:

 

I would not write off the Dockers, they were good last week and with a coach trying to keep his combined with Brisbane's away form I give them a real shot.

As for Port, they have copped a hiding from the local media this week which usually means they will use this as motivation and beat the scum.

If Geelong lose two in a row at home, their end is officially here. 

[monoccular 17,571]

On 8/3/2023 at 12:05 AM, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

On further ( ok…..a fraction optimistic) reflection, if the Pie lose three of their  four, and don’t beat the Hawks by much, and we win all ours, including a big percentage booster v.North, we probably finish on top!!!9

Of all the hypotheticals, surely there is only one that matter - win our next 7 and we are Premiers.🏆