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The Run Home

Gawndy the Great
Gawndy the Great
in Melbourne Demons

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9 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Still 6 games left, good luck predicting the 2-8 spots

I think top 4 is locked this weekend if Brisbane and ourselves win.

We would need to lose 3 or 2 (by a percentage damaging margin)of the remaining 5 to be catchable by a team that wins all 5.

You could argue that we can catch Brisbane but if they win this weekend they are still one game plus a big percentage in front.

The 5-8 spots are almost impossible as the margin between 5 and 14 is so close

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    I have to admit something here. Earlier this year I had a nightmare. We lose to Richmond. I am not joking.

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    7 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    I think top 4 is locked this weekend if Brisbane and ourselves win.

    We would need to lose 3 or 2 (by a percentage damaging margin)of the remaining 5 to be catchable by a team that wins all 5.

    You could argue that we can catch Brisbane but if they win this weekend they are still one game plus a big percentage in front.

    The 5-8 spots are almost impossible as the margin between 5 and 14 is so close

    Agree with this.

    The media...purple types especially... will make much of Geelost's gusto...rah rah etc..but i can't see them getting far.

    5 to 8 a raffle of irrelevances imho.

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    Just now, dl4e said:

    I have to admit something here. Earlier this year I had a nightmare. We lose to Richmond. I am not joking.

    ..and then we didn't..    It's ok...youre back in the real world now ;) 

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    If you just want to see us make top 4, you are barracking for Brisbane this weekend.

    If we beat Adelaide and Brisbane beats Geelong, then we'll be 4th on 12-6, and the side in 5th will be either St Kilda (they play North), the winner of Essendon v Bulldogs, or GWS (they play GC) - those three sides should get to 10-8 and 5th will go to whoever has the highest percentage. Incredibly, that's currently St Kilda, IMO not even a top 10 side in the league but riding off the early-season wins that on current form they'd get nowhere near.

    But the point will be that those sides, and Geelong, will need to out-do us by 3 wins across the final 5 weeks. That means if we go just 2-3 (from Richmond, North, Carlton, Hawthorn, Sydney), someone has to go 5-0 to pass us. If we go 3-2, we can't then be passed by anyone. 

    In short, a win this week plus a Brisbane win over Geelong gets us very close to confirmed top 4. 

    If you think we can pass Brisbane, then you want a Geelong win. If we win, we'd then level with Brisbane at 12-6 and be 5% or less off their percentage. Given they have Collingwood in their run home, there's still a chance we pass them. 

    Edited by titan_uranus

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    In all likelihood, we finish 4th - Brisbane's unlikely to drop any more than 1 more game than us and could hold their percentage over us, and whilst Port might collapse, I doubt it, and they have to drop 3 more games than us for us to catch them.

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    2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

    In all likelihood, we finish 4th - Brisbane's unlikely to drop any more than 1 more game than us and could hold their percentage over us, and whilst Port might collapse, I doubt it, and they have to drop 3 more games than us for us to catch them.

    Yes Brisbane to win and so a crack at the Pies in the QF giving us the opportunity to play the PF at the MCG too.

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    I was considering doing the ladder predictions on the AFL app, then looked how well I’ve been doing in picking winners in the footy tipping competition, then decided I shouldn’t bother…

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    On 6/5/2023 at 8:00 AM, bush demon said:

    Buddy is moving around ATM like Talos from Jason and the Argonauts..

    https://youtu.be/dD9qc44oMqU

    Ray Harryhausen Odyssey GIF by Turner Classic Movies

    Don't forget the WD40!

    Edited by Tarax Club
    christmas holidays whenever?

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    38 minutes ago, dl4e said:

    I have to admit something here. Earlier this year I had a nightmare. We lose to Richmond. I am not joking.

    It won’t really matter plus it won’t happen 

    Edited by Roost it far

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    1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

    And Geelong have Brisbane away, Port in Geelong and Pies at the G. Let’s hope they drop all 3. 

    Fair call, I was more so focusing on a potential shake up of the current top 4. Cats still could make it but an even bigger ask.

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    39 minutes ago, dl4e said:

    I have to admit something here. Earlier this year I had a nightmare. We lose to Richmond. I am not joking.

    We were lucky to beat them on ANZAC eve - straight kicking won that night.  Lynch out is a big help.

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    15 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

    Go Away GIF

    You were actually the first person I thought of when I wrote it 😜

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    • Author

    I think we need to maximise the benefit of our run home to really freshen up the team.

    We have Norf and Hawthorn where we have to consider resting the likes of Gawn, Trac, May and a few of our other top end.

    Oliver should play straight through and Hibbo may do with another game rest (perhaps Sydney).

    But we need to bank our wins and be satisfied with a #4 finish. There are no easy games against Pies, Port, Brisbane.

    I do have a sneaky feeling that Port / Pies will start to drop a few games as they being to tire and rest players. Whether it is enough to coincide with our run home, who knows.

    Here is my only positive/optimistic post for the next 2 months

    Remember our losses:

    Port - 4 pts

    Freo - 7 pts

    GWS - 2 pts

    With the Port, GWS games literally lost in the dying minutes of the game, had we had a bit of fortune (i.e. Oliver not doing a hammy), we would have been 2nd right now. 

    Against the Cats, it was a 10 minute lapse in the 3rd quarter, Lions was an injury shock to our skipper in the first 5 minutes. 

    **End positivity**

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    Goody's recent tinkering with the Jaguar XJ6 has begun to get the tuning going right. Of course it's a complex beast, but given the need for replacement components in the backline, midfield and forwards the decisions so far have appeared sound.

    Although the home stretch with opponents currently out of the eight, but some still in contention for a position on the finals' grid. Will need to be approached with some serious intent, as most are not simply gimmes. Though it is heartening to think of the potential boost to our premiership credentials with the return of some key players before September.

    Edited by Tarax Club

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    2 minutes ago, Tarax Club said:

    Goody's recent tinkerings with the Jaguar XJ6 has begun to get the tuning going right. Of course its a complex beast, but given the need for replacement components in the backline, midfield and forwards the decisions so far have appeared sound.

    Although the home stretch with opponents currently out of the eight but still some still in contention for a position on the finals' grid. Will need to approached with some serious intent, as most are not simply gimmes. Though it is heartening to think of the potential boost to our premiership credentials with the return of some key players before September.

    Well... being a Jag we better make sure the electrics are schmick and the transmission humming in syncro ;) .. if we're  looking to get things purrfect !!

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    5 hours ago, Kent said:

    Dees should finish second in my view so Bris(I hope)or Port in first final  all at the GGGGGGG!!

    Gee that was some turnaround, but yes you're right definite chance if we keep winning.

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    32 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

    Well... being a Jag we better make sure the electrics are schmick and the transmission humming in syncro ;) .. if we're  looking to get things purrfect !!

    bub this is strictly old school, XJ6 refers to the classic V12 motor. The ipace electrics require an extended warranty. Plus come finals time we really want the full-throated roar of the ICE.

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    Okay, so, out of curiosity, when was the last time Melbourne played Collingwood in a final?

    I'm thinking maybe a couple of times at the end of the 80s, yes?

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    6 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

    Okay, so, out of curiosity, when was the last time Melbourne played Collingwood in a final?

    I'm thinking maybe a couple of times at the end of the 80s, yes?

    Maybe the elimination final at Waverley in 89' or Semi Final in 88'

    Could be wrong though.

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    27 minutes ago, Tarax Club said:

    bub this is strictly old school, XJ6 refers to the classic V12 motor. The ipace electrics require an extended warranty. Plus come finals time we really want the full-throated roar of the ICE.

    Fully coversant with the XJs TC..  both XJ6 , XJ12.. and XJC ;)   all bloody notorious for crappy electrics..  and umm... "intermittent" transmissions ..( ask me how I know ...lol ) 

    Lovely beast when going properly :)

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    6 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

    Love your optimism. This scenario begins (and potentially ends) with the Port-Collingwood game this weekend. Collingwood wins and it's all over for top spot. Port wins and it's all over for Top 2.  

    Definitely the most likely scenario. Obviously finishing 2nd & hosting Port or Brisbane at the MCG in a Qualifying would be ideal but unlikely. Apart from that finshing 4th & playing Collingwood at the MCG definitely preferable to playing Port (likely) or Brisbane away in a Qualifying.

    Finishing 2nd or 3rd guarantees we meet the Pies in a Prelim  if Pies finish first..   Not attractive to me.

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    29 minutes ago, SFebes said:

    Maybe the elimination final at Waverley in 89' or Semi Final in 88'

    Could be wrong though.

    Correct and we won them both. Last time Collingwood beat Melbourne in a final was 1958.

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