The Run Home

[Lucifers Hero 40,578]

20 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Not a complete list.  A few that are missing.

• round 18:  Dees vs Lions
• round 22:  Cats vs Pies

etc

[Demonland 73,916]

57 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Not a complete list.  A few that are missing.

• round 18:  Dees vs Lions
• round 22:  Cats vs Pies

etc

These seem more about shaping the bottom of the 8 but Cats vs Pies does fall into that category.

[Lucifers Hero 40,578]

2 minutes ago, Demonland said:

These seem more about shaping the bottom of the 8 but Cats vs Pies does fall into that category.

We and even Lions could end up in the bottom of the 8...

[Kent 2,920]

On 7/11/2023 at 7:48 AM, beelzebub said:

Ahh.. the luck thing.   Yes ...often a key ingredient in any venture.

Lucky for them... no Oliver,no Fritta... and nothing resembling our future forward presence by us. 

It's intriguing that other teams manage "training runs" over lower placed competition... but we seem to struggle by comparison.

Ww simply need to win this...somehow...otherwise they have it over us...and that wont be fun come September 

I cannot see a future forward presence without buying another CHF

[Adam The God 30,645]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

We and even Lions could end up in the bottom of the 8...

Haha, this won't do much good for Andy's MFCSS. 😂

[titan_uranus 25,212]

6 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Not a complete list.  A few that are missing.

• round 18:  Dees vs Lions
• round 22:  Cats vs Pies

etc

Round 19 Dees v Crows surely in the list too!

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 7/11/2023 at 5:57 AM, Lucifers Hero said:

This summarises the rest of the season:

On paper we have the easiest run home and can't see us falling out of the top 4..  While any team can win on any given day if we beat the Lions and Crows we can start resting players through the last 5 rounds.  It is unlikely that we go further up the top 4 and there is really no need so imv preparing the players for September is a greater priority.

Geelong has a very hard draw (they play each team 1 to 7 except the dees) but they will probably stay in the top 8 for lack of competition around them.  But crikey, I really hope they fall out of the 8 - they will be a real threat if they make it.

After tonight's WB loss I reckon we would likely scrape into the Top 4 with 4 wins out of 7 for the rest of the H&A given our percentage, and in realility I think we'll win 5 or 6.

15 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Not a complete list.  A few that are missing.

• round 18:  Dees vs Lions
• round 22:  Cats vs Pies

etc

9 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Round 19 Dees v Crows surely in the list too!

If we're talking about games that will influence who makes the 8 and positions within the 8, I'd say nearly every game should be included at the moment. I predict the 8th team this year will have a 12-11 record and on that basis 15 teams can technically still make it, so probably 85% of games are relevant at this sage. The only irrelevant game this weekend is North Vs Hawthorn. You would expect that 85% to reduce steadily if some of those lower-positioned teams lose in coming weeks.  

[Demonland 73,916]

 

[The heart beats true 18,189]

22 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

AFL would be ecstatic with that. There’d be 250k fans across those games easily.

[Kent 2,920]

Dees should finish second in my view so Bris(I hope)or Port in first final  all at the GGGGGGG!!

[YearOfTheDees 3,266]

Going to be a number of upsets in these last six rounds. Just hope none involve us. 

[SFebes 4,884]

The Cats got a few back this week.....they're a big watch for me. I absolutely hate them more than any other club.

[Jaded No More 68,976]

1 minute ago, SFebes said:

The Cats got a few back this week.....they're a big watch for me. I absolutely hate them more than any other club.

I hope Brisbane crush them, and that Port and Pies do the same.

I have had just about enough of that walking retirement village.

[Demon17 5,231]

25 minutes ago, Kent said:

Dees should finish second in my view so Bris(I hope)or Port in first final  all at the GGGGGGG!!

I'm hoping for 4th so we meet Collingwood with double chance, but won't need to beat them to get into GF.  Better than meetiing them in a prelim.  But who knows....

[SFebes 4,884]

Just now, Jaded No More said:

I hope Brisbane crush them, and that Port and Pies do the same.

I have had just about enough of that walking retirement village.

You just know that Scott never goes away hey, I cannot stand him or them. 

I note he subbed out Dangerfield at 3/4 time so he'll be fresh. They also rested Tuohy and Ratugolea for the Essendon game. Bews 1-2wks away and potential to have Cam Guthrie back later in the year whos arguably their best midfielder.

They are the Carp of the AFL and never bloody die.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

57 minutes ago, Kent said:

Dees should finish second in my view so Bris(I hope)or Port in first final  all at the GGGGGGG!!

Love your optimism. This scenario begins (and potentially ends) with the Port-Collingwood game this weekend. Collingwood wins and it's all over for top spot. Port wins and it's all over for Top 2.  

30 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

I'm hoping for 4th so we meet Collingwood with double chance, but won't need to beat them to get into GF.  Better than meetiing them in a prelim.  But who knows....

Definitely the most likely scenario. Obviously finishing 2nd & hosting Port or Brisbane at the MCG in a Qualifying would be ideal but unlikely. Apart from that finshing 4th & playing Collingwood at the MCG definitely preferable to playing Port (likely) or Brisbane away in a Qualifying.

[Wodjathefirst 2,667]

On the assumption that we don’t finish in the top two…..If we play Collingwood first final it has its ups. We play at the G, gives us opportunity to get support at the ground and if we win, yee ha, we are in the box seat.  If we lose and win the next game we unfortunately will most likely play an interstate prelim final. Not so good 

If we play Port first week, it’s an away game. Tough but can be done. Win, again we are in the box seat. Lose and we win the following week and our prelim final would most likely be the Pies at the G or less likely Brisbane away, yuck.

On balance, I’d rather play the pies first week. Very pecuniary, at least I can go to the game.

Normally I stress big time when I actually go to the footy but I’m getting that feeling now…. I better stop 

Ps. If my logic above is wrong, apologies, happy to be corrected.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

10 minutes ago, Wodjathefirst said:

On the assumption that we don’t finish in the top two…..If we play Collingwood first final it has its ups. We play at the G, gives us opportunity to get support at the ground and if we win, yee ha, we are in the box seat.  If we lose and win the next game we unfortunately will most likely play an interstate prelim final. Not so good 

If we play Port first week, it’s an away game. Tough but can be done. Win, again we are in the box seat. Lose and we win the following week and our prelim final would most likely be the Pies at the G or less likely Brisbane away, yuck.

On balance, I’d rather play the pies first week. Very pecuniary, at least I can go to the game.

Normally I stress big time when I actually go to the footy but I’m getting that feeling now…. I better stop 

Ps. If my logic above is wrong, apologies, happy to be corrected.

Your logic is spot on. It's a tricky situation. A lot more will be known after this weekend because if Collingwood win they'll definitely finish top (I think they'll finish top regardless). If Port win they'll almost certainly finish 2nd (1st unlikely still). We want Collingwood to win, obviously Melbourne against Adelaide and I'm not sure about Brisbane vs Geelong (Geelong probably if Port lose). I think Brisbane will win though. Anyway, all will be much clearer in a week's time! 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

If Grundy comes back as a fwd is Roo missing out?

If Fritsch comes back this year is there any reason we can’t play both him and Melksham in the same side? (I thinking when Hawks had Gunston and Bruest).

 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

Lions have

Cats Gabba

Pies MCG

 

Port have 

Pies AAMI

Crows AAMI

Cats GMHBA 

Would take lions to drop at least 1 and Port 3 for us to finish 2nd. Not impossible but unlikely. As bad as Crows have been the last fortnight they beat Port earlier this season. We really need to capitalise on % over the next 6 weeks.

[binman 44,734]

3 hours ago, Demonland said:

 

Weather starts getting nicer. Finals come into view. The dees start rolling as the final act of the season commences.

Oh and the spring racing season is close.

My favorite time of year. 

A new spring ritual has been added since 2021 - the ladder prediction tool on the AFL website (basically the only useful thing on that whole god forsaken site).

And post the win on Friday night i have put it to work. 

The most common scenario I land on is the same first week finals as above, ie the top four in order is Pies, Port, Lions and the Dees,

Even if Power beat the Pies this week, with the percentage buffer the Pies have it is hard to see them not finishing top and Port second.

If Port do beat the Pies they will have almost locked in second place.

But if they lose to the Pies, suddenly the derby the following week against the Crows is huge because the following week they play the Cats at Kardinia park. Including their loss against the blues, it is not inconceivable they could drop four games in succession.

If that were to transpire and we win our remaining six games and the lions win 5 of their 6 games (the loss being to the Pies at Marvel - a game they have g odd shot of wining i think), Port, the Lions and the dees would all finish on 68 points.

But the Dees and Lion would raffle second and third position because both teams' percentage is way better than Ports. in that scenario, Port play Pies week one at the G. 

And the dees would play the Lions at the Gabba or the G depending on percentage.

The Lions can score heavily, but only have one game against a relative easy beat, Freo in round 9 - and that game is a home game for Freo. 

But we have two games against teams in the bottom third of the ladder - the Roos and Hawks.

Those two games might end up being critical in terms deciding second and third place on percentage and therefore, in the scenario where Port drop the next 3 games (and we win our remaining games and lions win 5 of 6), if we play week one at the G or at the Gabba.  

In the scenario Port lose to Pies, beat Crows, lose to Cats but then win their remaining games (which is more probable than them losing to the Crows), and we win all six remaining games and lions go 5 of six, Port finish second and the Lions and dees raffle third on percentage.

I think we will eclipse the Lions' percentage, so finishing third and playing Port in Adelaide week one is a real possibility.  

My preference is we finish fourth and play the Pies week one at the G. Snuff out the Pies mania and i have a better chance of being able to attend the game. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by binman

[Jaded No More 68,976]

20 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Lions have

Cats Gabba

Pies MCG

 

Port have 

Pies AAMI

Crows AAMI

Cats GMHBA 

Would take lions to drop at least 1 and Port 3 for us to finish 2nd. Not impossible but unlikely. As bad as Crows have been the last fortnight they beat Port earlier this season. We really need to capitalise on % over the next 6 weeks.

And Geelong have Brisbane away, Port in Geelong and Pies at the G. Let’s hope they drop all 3. 

[beelzebub 23,390]

26 minutes ago, binman said:

Weather starts getting nicer. Finals come into view. The dees start rolling as the final act of the season commences.

Oh and the spring racing season is close.

My favorite time of year. 

A new spring ritual has been added since 2021 - the ladder prediction tool on the AFL website (basically the only useful thing on that whole god forsaken site).

And post the win on Friday night i have put it to work. 

The most common scenario I land on is the same first week finals as above, ie the top four in order is Pies, Port, Lions and the Dees,

Even if Power beat the Pies this week, with the percentage buffer the Pies have it is hard to see them not finishing top and Port second.

If Port do beat the Pies they will have almost locked in second place.

But if they lose to the Pies, suddenly the derby the following week against the Crows is huge because the following week they play the Cats at Kardinia park. Including their loss against the blues, it is not inconceivable they could drop four games in succession.

If that were to transpire and we win our remaining six games and the lions win 5 of their 6 games (the loss being to the Pies at Marvel - a game they have g odd shot of wining i think), Port, the Lions and the dees would all finish on 68 points.

But the Dees and Lion would raffle second and third position because both teams' percentage is way better than Ports. in that scenario, Port play Pies week one at the G. 

And the dees would play the Lions at the Gabba or the G depending on percentage.

The Lions can score heavily, but only have one game against a relative easy beat, Freo in round 9 - and that game is a home game for Freo. 

But we have two games against teams in the bottom third of the ladder - the Roos and Hawks.

Those two games might end up being critical in terms deciding second and third place on percentage and therefore, in the scenario where Port drop the next 3 games (and we win our remaining games and lions win 5 of 6), if we play week one at the G or at the Gabba.  

In the scenario Port lose to Pies, beat Crows, lose to Cats but then win their remaining games (which is more probable than them losing to the Crows), and we win all six remaining games and lions go 5 of six, Port finish second and the Lions and dees raffle third on percentage.

I think we will eclipse the Lions' percentage, so finishing third and playing Port in Adelaide week one is a real possibility.  

My preference is we finish fourth and play the Pies week one at the G. Snuff out the Pies mania and i have a better chance of being able to attend the game. 

I agree that 4th is preferable.  Play the filth at our G...straight into the Prelim.

Far-fetched ???

I think the resulting eos ladder may not trulyy refelect all teams' true form.

I'm happy enough if we prise a bevy of wins closing out the season at around 3/4 goals per and in so building momentum...refining some tempo and rhythm.  No I'm not talking about reinventing Big Audio Dynamite..   am talking about finding a groove. Getting our forward gane more used to angular incursions.....more harmony among the forwards in positioning and not crashing each other.... finding a steady kicking mojo.

I.e...to get ourselves set...before ramping up.

We've a good set of games to do this with, each one with challenges...each one with opportunity to gel even better. No game is a gimme...but each winnable. 

We need to better resolve our game/style as players come back to the mix.  We need it more about the "game" than the personnel...imo.

Edited July 17, 2023 by beelzebub
spelling

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,084]

Still 6 games left, good luck predicting the 2-8 spots

[layzie 34,415]

I don't hate Geelong as much as others but I was kinda looking forward to them missing the 8 for a change.