2 minutes ago, A F said:

It's very likely we will not continue experimenting with our mids though and that these numbers that everyone seems so worried about, will continue (ie we'll still be top 4 for scores from stoppages).

I don't mind too much if we're losing the stoppage count, but winning the scores from stoppages. Particularly, as given our strength this year is scores from turnover, if the opposition is winning stoppages and kicking it straight to us and we're scoring on turnover, we have the game looking like we want it.

Surely, you'd agree with this?

And naturally, we're going to be judged by our next month or so of footy.

We haven’t played enough top teams to believe those stats wholeheartedly just yet I think. 

Also, scores from stoppages are tough September and it’s the turnover game - generated through gruelling pressure from front half and back half - that’ll get you the flag. 
 

I don’t have it but thought we were doing ok there. 

5 hours ago, Orion said:

Yeah but that was 2021.  Things move fast in the AFL

"The past is a foreign country. They do things differently there."   

L.P. Hartley, The Go Between.
 

5 hours ago, GCDee said:

I think some supporters don’t really remember what 2021 was like, we didn’t click until round 20…
There was lots of doubt surrounding us up to that point, we had just been beaten by the pies (not the side they are today), drawn to the lowly ranked hawks,lost to the giants at home in a really lack lustre performance and got beaten up by the dogs at the G. There was talk about our forward line connection then and if we had the ability to kick a winning score in a big final. 
 

I for one am enjoying the ride, keeping the faith in the FD that we will go deep into September then anything can happen. 

This. Bravo. 

People like to think we played like the prelim all year long

1 hour ago, Gawndy the Great said:

We haven’t played enough top teams to believe those stats wholeheartedly just yet I think. 

Also, scores from stoppages are tough September and it’s the turnover game - generated through gruelling pressure from front half and back half - that’ll get you the flag. 
 

I don’t have it but thought we were doing ok there. 

Would you have believed Geelong were a contender this time last year?

As I just posted in the Podcast thread, our 2023 form line is incredibly similar to Geelong's 2022 form line.

Geelong were 2-3 against top 8 sides to Round 10, not drastically different from us this year.

They beat Collingwood by 13 points and Brisbane by 10 points (at Geelong).

They lost to Sydney by 30 points (in Sydney), they lost to Fremantle by 3 points (at Geelong) and they lost to St Kilda (who were in the 8 at the time) by 10 points.

Meantime, they 'beat up' on easy beats Essendon by 66 points, North by 60 points and GWS by 53 points, and lost to lowly Hawthorn by 12 points. I wonder if Geelong supporters were saying the same thing about their team last year at this stage?

Geelong's soft draw in the second half of 2022, is also comparable with our soft draw in the second half of 2023.

5 minutes ago, A F said:

Would you have believed Geelong were a contender this time last year?

As I just posted in the Podcast thread, our 2023 form line is incredibly similar to Geelong's 2022 form line.

Geelong were 2-3 against top 8 sides to Round 10, not drastically different from us this year.

They beat Collingwood by 13 points and Brisbane by 10 points (at Geelong).

They lost to Sydney by 30 points (in Sydney), they lost to Fremantle by 3 points (at Geelong) and they lost to St Kilda (who were in the 8 at the time) by 10 points.

Meantime, they 'beat up' on easy beats Essendon by 66 points, North by 60 points and GWS by 53 points, and lost to lowly Hawthorn by 12 points. I wonder if Geelong supporters were saying the same thing about their team last year at this stage?

Geelong's soft draw in the second half of 2022, is also comparable with our soft draw in the second half of 2023.

I agree. 

BUT this search for a pattern or a trend line to latch onto is similar to last year where the theory about loading being our silver bullet in 2021 was seen as a reason to accept our deficiencies etc. 

But yes, the takeaway is that the season is long and being the best team in May isn't the goal

Sure.

So all we've got to go by so far is that we're top 4 for scores from all the major routes (stoppages, turnovers and kick outs), we're the highest scoring team in the comp and the 4th best defensive side.

And we've been throwing the magnets around all over the place to test combinations forward, back and through the midfield. ie experimenting.

This will not happen when we get closer to finals, and I think ideally they'd have wanted to reduce some of the experimentation after Round 10 (with 5 interstate trips in 10 games now expired), but that experimentation, will have to continue (at least into Round 11) due to Oliver, Hunter and Petty being out.

Edited May 24, 20231 yr by A F

12 hours ago, Orion said:

Like I said previously we've got the same forward problems as last year.  We turn up to certain games asleep like last year.   The blueprint to beat us is well known which the coaches could not find a way to counter last year or this year.  For example opposition coaches are telling their players to keep the ball on the ground so May and Lever can't intercept.  Some teams are running at our defence which we don't like.  Opposition players are also told not kick it to Gawn if he's playing down back but to go around him.  When teams pressure us we struggle like last year.  Goodwin also seems to have difficulty making tactical changes during games when things aren't going well just like last year

Skase.

14 hours ago, GCDee said:

I think some supporters don’t really remember what 2021 was like, we didn’t click until round 20…
There was lots of doubt surrounding us up to that point, we had just been beaten by the pies (not the side they are today), drawn to the lowly ranked hawks,lost to the giants at home in a really lack lustre performance and got beaten up by the dogs at the G. There was talk about our forward line connection then and if we had the ability to kick a winning score in a big final. 
 

I for one am enjoying the ride, keeping the faith in the FD that we will go deep into September then anything can happen. 

This is very true, but everything always looks better when you remember it.

Great post, no matter how annoyed I get with games like last week I try to remember it's still an enjoyable ride.

The aim is top 4 and hit the finals in form and almost injury free, particularly to your best 6-8 players!

Pies out in front at the moment, lose Moore or Daicos will look very different!

Then Lions, Demons, Port, Dogs all close. Melbourne will account for Port in Melb, all the stars aligned for Port Friday and it took terrible umpiring to get them over the line!

Then Cats and maybe Freo, but both need lots to go right from here!

Realistically we are well placed for top 4 if we win 2or 3 of our next 4, assuming 16 wins gets top 4 position!

While we need improvement from key forwards and centre clearances, the rest is pretty close particularly when you think we have been experimenting and resting our guns to have them fresher for finals!

We might not win the flag but with a little luck  will have the opportunity to have a real crack!

On 5/24/2023 at 9:32 AM, McQueen said:

And I’ll be smuggling my own booze into the next game I watch. 

$14 plastic beers. Pfft

What a complete rip off it is if you don’t go to the footy with your own graze and drinks. 
A joke. 

I'm genuinely gob smacked by that price.

Since moving to rural Nsw 11 years ago I don't get to Melbourne as much as I would like.

I go and support our great team at the Scg when we play there but about 2 years ago it was 8 dollars for a cup of about 375ml mid strength.

Aldi sells a great 330 ml bottle of knock off stella artists for under 2 $2 a bottle. Maybe they make about a dollar off each sale.

@ 14$ I wonder what their profit margin is. Given serving costs etc they must make around 8 to 9 dollars a sale and I think that's a conservative guestimate. 

Good old footy, the working class game and societal leveller.

Some fair seats for the wife and 2 kids could set you back around 100. Parking 20. Snacks 40.  

Total 160.

Kicking back with the wife and having 3 or 4 beers each would give you little change for the whole day from 300 bucks.

It's astounding crowd numbers have been so good.

16 hours ago, A F said:

Would you have believed Geelong were a contender this time last year?

As I just posted in the Podcast thread, our 2023 form line is incredibly similar to Geelong's 2022 form line.

Geelong were 2-3 against top 8 sides to Round 10, not drastically different from us this year.

They beat Collingwood by 13 points and Brisbane by 10 points (at Geelong).

They lost to Sydney by 30 points (in Sydney), they lost to Fremantle by 3 points (at Geelong) and they lost to St Kilda (who were in the 8 at the time) by 10 points.

Meantime, they 'beat up' on easy beats Essendon by 66 points, North by 60 points and GWS by 53 points, and lost to lowly Hawthorn by 12 points. I wonder if Geelong supporters were saying the same thing about their team last year at this stage?

Geelong's soft draw in the second half of 2022, is also comparable with our soft draw in the second half of 2023.

I just posted this on the podcast thread:

Thanks AF for that info.

The coverage of football [censored] me to death. Collective memories of particularly slow gold fish.

At this point last year the media were all the cats are dads army, the cliff has come blah blah blah.

Cut to the finals and the media is lauding their fitness, their experience, their slow build and banging on about how well they managed their players (echoed on here too - suddenly the cats were the exemplars in terms of resting players, more players thru the middle etc etc).

And then they trot out the line that clubs always look to the previous flag winner for cues. And that is exactly what the cats did - copied our preparation and essentially game plan too.

Well, it would very much appear that is what we are doing this year - ie copying some of the things the cats did to win the flag last year.

And as we approach finals, after a couple of months of pearl clutching about the dees form around the middle of the season, and the dees start stringing the wins together again and begin to look very ominous, the 360 and first crack peanuts will suddenly have the exact same revelations they have every year - the flag is not won in May and June, there's essentially two seasons - H&A and finals - and it is all about peaking in September blah blah blah.

And then, like this has suddenly dawned on them, despite having put much the same graphic up every year, they will put up a graphic with the sort of info below to support the idea that dees are building very nicely thank you very much:

W-L record of last 10 premiers after round 10

2013 Hawks 9 wins 1 loss
2014 Hawks 7-3 
2015 Hawks 6-4 
2016 Dogs   7-3
2017 Tigers 6-4
2018 Eagles 9-1 (ironically massive flag favs all season, tigers, were also 9-1)
2019 Tigers  7-3 
2020 Tigers  6-3-1  
2021 Dees    9-1  (but in next 7 games went 2 wins, 4 losses and a draw)
2022 Cats    6-4

2023 Dees 7-3

10 seasons is a pretty good sample size. The pattern is pretty damn clear. Seven of the ten winners not better than 70 30 after 10 rounds.

But sure, let’s write off the dees premiership chances at round 10 on the back of a 4 points loss against a team coming off six straight wins. on their home deck, in conditions that suited them better and off a six day break plus travel. 

It’s like some weird footy take on the quote from philosopher George Santayana, ‘those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it’.

Edited May 25, 20231 yr by binman
Good pick up by Neil Crompton

17 hours ago, A F said:

That wasn't the trend at all last year. The trend was in the second half of the year, we'd run out of steam in second halves.

Whereas, in our premiership year we'd run over teams usually (exception basically being GWS and Collingwood that year). 

That is literally how you beat every team in the competition, because moving the ball quickly off half back is the way to beat the modern zone that we'd perfected in 2021.

I agree that the way to beat the modern zone is to move the ball quickly and use short chips off half back to break the zone and then kick over the top of it. Even better if you can use a chip and then a handball receive to break more lines.

However, when teams have done it to us, our half forwards have been off and when they tried it (say against Sydney), we shut them down by not allowing the handball receive.

I do think the modern zone requires a tweak and I've banged on about this for a few weeks now, because I think we were trialling something in our Richmond game.  That is, go 1v1 from the stationary kick out and then zone behind it. But again, you don't necessarily want to show all your cards at this stage of the season. This is an adjustment we could make in season IMO. 

The system is about trusting your players to play their roles and get the job done. This was Clarkson's philosophy during the threepeat era as 

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-melbourne-demons-narrm-football-club-premiership/news-story/aec29731dedb4f21a7c49c46e33d078b

Edited May 25, 20231 yr by one_demon

1 hour ago, binman said:

I just posted this on the podcast thread:

Thanks AF for that info.

The coverage of football [censored] me to death. Collective memories of particularly slow gold fish.

At this point last year the media were all the cats are dads army, the cliff has come blah blah blah.

Cut to the finals and the media is lauding their fitness, their experience, their slow build and banging on about how well they managed their players (echoed on here too - suddenly the cats were the exemplars in terms of resting players, more players thru the middle etc etc).

And then they trot out the line that clubs always look to the previous flag winner for cues. And that is exactly what the cats did - copied our preparation and essentially game plan too.

Well, it would very much appear that is what we are doing this year - ie copying some of the things the cats did to win the flag last year.

And as we approach finals, after a couple of months of pearl clutching about the dees form around the middle of the season, and the dees start stringing the wins together again and begin to look very ominous, the 360 and first crack peanuts will suddenly have the exact same revelations they have every year - the flag is not won in May and June, there's essentially two seasons - H&A and finals - and it is all about peaking in September blah blah blah.

And then, like this has suddenly dawned on them, despite having put much the same graphic up every year, they will put up a graphic with the sort of info below to support the idea that dees are building very nicely thank you very much:

W-L record of last 10 premiers after round 10

2013 Hawks 9 wins 1 loss
2014 Hawks 7-3 
2015 Hawks 6-4 
2016 Dogs   6-4
2017 Tigers 6-4
2018 Eagles 9-1 (ironically massive flag favs all season, tigers, were also 9-1)
2019 Tigers  6-4 
2020 Tigers  5-4-1  
2021 Dees    9-1  (but in next 7 games went 2 wins, 4 losses and a draw)
2022 Cats    6-4

2023 Dees 7-3

10 seasons is a pretty good sample size. The pattern is pretty damn clear. Seven of the ten winners not much better than 50 50 after 10 rounds.

But sure, let’s write off the dees premiership chances at round 10 on the back of a 4 points loss against a team coming off six straight wins. on their home deck, in conditions that suited them better and off a six day break plus travel. 

It’s like some weird footy take on the quote from philosopher George Santayana, ‘those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it’.

I applaud your positivity Binman, and your condemnation of the collective football media. While there is nothing (thankfully) that you can do about your positivity, if you didn’t watch these afl review programs, the media will not be able to “[censored] you to death” as you state - simples. 
But just a couple of points on your post:

- I think you’ll find that in 2016, the Dogs were 7/3, rather than 6/4; 2019, Tiges were 7/3, not 6/4; and 2020, Tiges were 6/3/1, not 5/4/1. 
- So in fact only 3 teams in 10 years, not 7 as you suggested, won the premiership from a 6/4 or worse position ( which I assume is what you are calling “not much better than 50/50”). So I’d proffer that, statistically, you are in a much better position of winning the premiership if you had only lost a max of 3 games after 10 rounds. And fortunately that’s where we are at the moment.                                                                                                                                         
- if the afl media is questioning the Dees as a contender, so what? They probably have a right to given our record of 4/3 against, as Kingy puts it, the “real teams”. That aside, I would much rather fly under the radar than be a Pies-like headline. In the end, if we are good enough, we are good enough, if we are not, we are not. Not a lot of point getting our nickers in a knot about a [censored] media who are only doing their [censored] job. So chill, and enjoy the season on your terms.

19 hours ago, GCDee said:

I think some supporters don’t really remember what 2021 was like, we didn’t click until round 20…
There was lots of doubt surrounding us up to that point, we had just been beaten by the pies (not the side they are today), drawn to the lowly ranked hawks,lost to the giants at home in a really lack lustre performance and got beaten up by the dogs at the G. There was talk about our forward line connection then and if we had the ability to kick a winning score in a big final. 
 

I for one am enjoying the ride, keeping the faith in the FD that we will go deep into September then anything can happen. 

I think of all the things I dislike about Demonland, revisionism tops the list. 

We were 17-1-4 with a percentage of 130%. That’s the entire season of course, not just the last month. 

Pre-bye we beat Geelong (prelim finalist), GWS away (they finished 7th and won a final), Sydney (finished 6th), the Dogs at Marvel, Brisbane, plus St Kilda, Richmond, Fremantle and Carlton (10th-13th - so not finalists but also not bottom sides). Post-bye we also beat Port away (prelim finalist).

Saying we didn’t click until round 20 ignores the stunning body of work we put into the first 17 weeks. Saying we got “beaten up” by the Dogs ignores that we’d already beaten them at Marvel, and is inaccurate anyway - that was a 20 point loss where it was single digits midway through the 4th quarter. 

We beat 16 of the 17 other sides that year (only missing out on Collingwood).

Our 2021 season was, from start to finish, supreme.

1 hour ago, Neil Crompton said:

I applaud your positivity Binman, and your condemnation of the collective football media. While there is nothing (thankfully) that you can do about your positivity, if you didn’t watch these afl review programs, the media will not be able to “[censored] you to death” as you state - simples. 

Sure. And that's essentially what i have done (I have almost completely stopped watching or listening to any footy media – the two ABC radio footy shows on Saturday and the catch up of Sando’s Thursday half hour on SEN are pretty much all I regularly consume).

But my comments about how much the football media frustrates me wasn't limited to the 'review shows' – it is the entire footy media eco system.

And why shouldn’t that frustrate me? 

I love the sport, am passionate about it and am always trying to better understand it.  So to basically have no mainstream media options that help me understand the sport and that I really enjoy engaging with, is super frustrating, and in my opinion a sad reflection on the industry. 

I mean c’mon, the AFL and the media love to look to the States as the template. But apart from stupid loud music at games as some sort of manufactured game day experience, they ignore all the fantastic ways their sports are covered. 

As an example, I haven’t followed the NBA for a few years,  so am out of the loop where things are at. But i watched the Denver v Lakers playff games because I love Nicola Jokic and LeBron James is simply incredible.

I learnt more about basketball, the systems of the Nuggets and Lakers, their relative strengths and weakness etc etc in the first 30 mins of game one than I have about footy from the football media in 3 months of this season. And that’s just the live commentary – their ‘review’ shows are next level and as a rule, incredibly insightful. 

I had much the same experience watching the superbowl this year. I havent followed the NFL for 20 years, so am even more out of the loop than i am with the NBA. But the team covering it did a fanstastic job to help me undertsand what i was watching. Ditto for the coverage of the PGA championship.

I know footy, but watching the TV coverage makes me cringe and does nothing to help my understanding of the game. It's a joke.

And its not as if it is an Australian thing.  I love Test match cricket almost as much as football and have played a lot of cricket. I know the game.

But unlike the coverage of footy, the way test cricket is covered helps me grow my understanding of, and love for, the sport. The coverage is fantastic in terms of explaining the game, it's use of data to help do so and drilling down on tactics, techniques, stenegths and weakneses.

Edited May 25, 20231 yr by binman

1 hour ago, Neil Crompton said:

if the afl media is questioning the Dees as a contender, so what? They probably have a right to given our record of 4/3 against, as Kingy puts it, the “real teams”. 

Very true.  Some people when they don't like a commentator saying negative things about their club not matter how legitimate, they'll go after the commentator. 

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Saying we didn’t click until round 20 ignores the stunning body of work we put into the first 17 weeks. Saying we got “beaten up” by the Dogs ignores that we’d already beaten them at Marvel, and is inaccurate anyway - that was a 20 point loss where it was single digits midway through the 4th quarter. 

We beat 16 of the 17 other sides that year (only missing out on Collingwood).

Our 2021 season was, from start to finish, supreme.

Correct

17 minutes ago, binman said:

I know AFL, but watching the TV coverage makes me cringe and does nothing to help my understanding of the game. It's a joke.

This is the problem for most AFL supporters I reckon. The AFL views itself as being in direct competition with almost all other sports. As a result they’ve taken a very US centric ‘competition’ mindset - with a focus on growing the game with new audiences, and constantly staying in the headlines in order to block competitors from grabbing any media coverage.

So that results in a media landscape that is overly sensationalistic, and/or overly simplistic.

You mention Test Cricket, which I’d imagine isn’t viewed as a ‘gateway’ to the sport. That’s what T20 is. Sadly for us the AFL wants to be much more T20 in its approach.

Edited May 25, 20231 yr by The heart beats true

17 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

This is the problem for most AFL supporters I reckon. The AFL views itself as being in direct competition with almost all other sports. As a result they’ve taken a very US centric ‘competition’ mindset - with a focus on growing the game with new audiences, and constantly staying in the headlines in order to block competitors from grabbing any media coverage.

So that results in a media landscape that is overly sensationalistic, and/or overly simplistic.

You mention Test Cricket, which I’d imagine isn’t viewed as a ‘gateway’ to the sport. That’s what T20. Sadly for us the AFL wants to be much more T20 in its approach.

Indeed.

Funny you should mention 20 20. I am ambivalent about 20 20, though i prefer it to one day cricket, and never watch it.

The other night i decided to watch some IPL to give it a go. I know almost nothing about the IPL and could only manage about an hour of it before losing interest.

But the coverage was fantastic. The use of stats was illuminating and used to provide context, not just random numbers and factoids. The commentary was clever and the experts really knew their stuff - and what's more could actually articulate their knowlege.  And they avoided pointing out what i could see with my own eyes. And none of the blokey, jokey rubbiush that makes the BBL all but unwatchable. 

In that hour, i learned heaps about the IPL, strategies employed and also got a good sense of how the game has changed tactically. Impressive.

Edited May 25, 20231 yr by binman

14 hours ago, A F said:

Would you have believed Geelong were a contender this time last year?

As I just posted in the Podcast thread, our 2023 form line is incredibly similar to Geelong's 2022 form line.

Geelong were 2-3 against top 8 sides to Round 10, not drastically different from us this year.

They beat Collingwood by 13 points and Brisbane by 10 points (at Geelong).

They lost to Sydney by 30 points (in Sydney), they lost to Fremantle by 3 points (at Geelong) and they lost to St Kilda (who were in the 8 at the time) by 10 points.

Meantime, they 'beat up' on easy beats Essendon by 66 points, North by 60 points and GWS by 53 points, and lost to lowly Hawthorn by 12 points. I wonder if Geelong supporters were saying the same thing about their team last year at this stage?

Geelong's soft draw in the second half of 2022, is also comparable with our soft draw in the second half of 2023.

The counter argument is they then won 13 in a row in large part due to a huge home ground advantage on the way to a flag. Even if we improve in the 2nd half we are not likely to repeat that making top 4 unlikely and top 2 impossible. Making a Flag unlikely.

As greedy as it sounds I think most agree this team needs to win more than one flag to be called a success and top 4 finishes or a grand final appearance won’t cut it and the clock is ticking. How many years at peak do May and Gawn have left.

3 hours ago, one_demon said:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-melbourne-demons-narrm-football-club-premiership/news-story/aec29731dedb4f21a7c49c46e33d078b

Did David King compare Melbourne to last year's premiership Geelong at the same stage? Or did he just go with the easy dopey analysis?

Good original post. You could argue though that it is too optimistic an assessment. As with most things in life, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Couple of things to consider:

It is a very, very tough competition. 

All teams have strengths and flaws. All things being equal, motivation is the element that can elevate one team over another. I'm not sure Melb. have the win at all costs mentality that it seemed to have in 2021. Sure there were doubts, but the steely determination was evident in most games.

Personnel wise, the depth in Collingwood, Brisbane and Port's midfield is scary. On the outside, we cannot consistently match them which puts our numbers bolstered defence, under enormous pressure.

I think we're about the fourth or fifth best team in it with Geelong being the unknown.

To me it doesn’t look like we have the same manic desire we had in 21.

That doesn’t mean it can’t come back if we start to play with more intensity in the second half, maybe we are pacing ourselves, I don’t know.

Collingwood seem to have that energy we lack at the moment .

The competition has improved significantly over the past two seasons, but have we?

We certainly don’t seem to have as many players in All Australian contention, outside Trac and Clarry and the back line isn’t as dominant in the air as it has been.

David King on 360 pretty spot on, numbers don’t lie, we have dropped away 

52 minutes ago, DeeZee said:

To me it doesn’t look like we have the same manic desire we had in 21.

That doesn’t mean it can’t come back if we start to play with more intensity in the second half, maybe we are pacing ourselves, I don’t know.

Collingwood seem to have that energy we lack at the moment .

The competition has improved significantly over the past two seasons, but have we?

We certainly don’t seem to have as many players in All Australian contention, outside Trac and Clarry and the back line isn’t as dominant in the air as it has been.

Succinctly... the hunger has gone.

It's such an abstract ...it can't be synthesised. 

The team may well be trying as hard...  but it's different.  

Certainly not as effective.  Game has changed... Box hasnt.

Hunger ... not there.

Its a human condition. 

The coaching had to change , redirect and compensate for that which no longer existed...and replaced with some other motive.

Patently...this hasn't occurred.