POSTGAME: Rd 17 vs Geelong

[Gawndy the Great 7,957]

We have lost 4 games to top 8 teams that are good in bringing immense pressure to the contest and stoppage. Equally we have beaten 2 top 8 (as it stands) that on reflection were probably off their game. I don't care that we are loading, or at the same point as last year. The games we have lost are finals like, so anyone wanting an 'audit' of our game and how it will stand up in finals can use this a crystal ball. We are not winning it with performances or planning like that. 

The facts of our losses are not co-incidental either. They tell us that we are not up to it against sides who bring pressure - we cannot cope with it. Equally , we have seen our pressure rating all year is much much lower than last year, so this cannot be overlooked. 

[Binmans PA 26,663]

9 minutes ago, BDA said:

Disappointing result. I was sure we would win but in hindsight i didn't give due consideration to the 5 day break factor

We’re not leaving ourselves much margin for error. Must beat Port and Doggies in our next 2 games

Our injury profile is pretty good other than TMac. As important as he is to our structure we should be able to cover his absence and re-jig our forward set-up

If we can avoid injuries I’m confident we will time our run and be primed for September. But we need to keep picking up wins while we're loading. It seems to be a fine balance. No point talking about September if we don't win enough H&A games. We won’t win the flag if we finish outside the top 4

I was thinking about this last night. Not having a recognise second tall plays havoc with our structure and IMV it's why our predictable down the line game doesn't work as well. McDonald's ability to take marks up the ground and ping it back inside 50 is a bit like Jeremy Cameron when on, so take Hawkins or Cameron out of their side and they're a very different proposition.

We should have Tom back for finals. I hope he can get a game or two before the heat of finals.

[SFebes 4,748]

2 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Have a look at May in the first qtr

His kick ins were skewed off his boot. Nowhere near as precise as usual (and yes we are well and truly sick of the kick to the left FFS Goody!)

He continually fumbled

His timing was out and he was as nervous as a long tail cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

Something was wrong

 

 

I do wonder what the ratio of kicking to the left is with our kick ins? Combined with the kick it to Gawn problem. Would love the stats on these.

[jnrmac 19,481]

Geelong owned the corridor, they also switched the ball repeatedly and we were unable to handle or even recognise that.

Which is bizarre on such a narrow ground - it should be easier to defend. 

Our kick ins to the same spot just make it ridiculously easy for the oppn to set up

We did nothing on the centre bounces. Maybe Kozzie, maybe Bedford. Anything would have been better than the combo we had

As for breaking tackles and tacking an eternity to kick the pill - unbelievable how many times we got caught.

Bowey out of form for a few weeks now. Hunt would have been a better shut down option on Stengle (whose pace & pressure killed us)

[dazzledavey36 49,738]

7 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Have a look at May in the first qtr

His kick ins were skewed off his boot. Nowhere near as precise as usual (and yes we are well and truly sick of the kick to the left FFS Goody!)

He continually fumbled

His timing was out and he was as nervous as a long tail cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

Something was wrong

 

 

Still concussed from the Melksham jab.

[Redleg 38,432]

23 minutes ago, SFebes said:

I do wonder what the ratio of kicking to the left is with our kick ins? Combined with the kick it to Gawn problem. Would love the stats on these.

Twice this year I recall a kick in to the corridor, where we grabbed the ball, played on and goaled.

This of course has been eliminated, as not fitting into our inflexible gameday tactics.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Redleg

[John Crow Batty 8,352]

Geelong were more hungry than us. We have been playing a passive/aggressive game all season relying on bursts of rapid scoring to defeat teams that we allow to throw everything at us. The only games where we have appeared more hungry than the opposition was against Brisbane and Port. Last week though be beat Adelaide we let them dictate the play all game. If they were a marginally better side they would have won. Next week we come up against Port again in Alice. This game is their last chance to have a hope of securing a finals spot. They will throw everything at us.

[defuture15 857]

9 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Geelong owned the corridor, they also switched the ball repeatedly and we were unable to handle or even recognise that.

Which is bizarre on such a narrow ground - it should be easier to defend. 

Our kick ins to the same spot just make it ridiculously easy for the oppn to set up

We did nothing on the centre bounces. Maybe Kozzie, maybe Bedford. Anything would have been better than the combo we had

As for breaking tackles and tacking an eternity to kick the pill - unbelievable how many times we got caught.

Bowey out of form for a few weeks now. Hunt would have been a better shut down option on Stengle (whose pace & pressure killed us)

This seems to be the crux of the matter.

We chose not to play to the ground shape

What do we lose by trying to win tactically?

[John Crow Batty 8,352]

10 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Still concussed from the Melksham jab.

There is a pattern with May in first quarters. Is fumbly, uncertain and poor disposal early in many games. Happened in GF as well. Improves as game goes on. Last night he was worse than usual and cost us goals and momentum though he did well one on one against Hawkins. 

[Binmans PA 26,663]

1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

Max rucking works against us against the better midfields of the comp. 

Obviously he's a champion around the ground but we're always beaten at clearance against good sides when Max is in there. 

His tapping is super inconsistent due to being too offensively minded. I noticed that without genuine ruckmen last week our mids were far more balanced in the way the positioned and then attacked that first ruck contest. 

Got to be less offensively minded when coming up against the stronger midfields of the comp. 

Aside from that, the loss doesn't really bother me. They'd built this game up for the past year, was a mini grand final for them so they can have it. A final at the G will be a different story. 

The only other worry is the forward line entries and our consistent missed opportunity to put scoreboard pressure on when we've got momentum. That's the thing that could possibly cost us a top 4 spot or a loss in a big final.

We can't just expect that we'll turn it on come September. 

Fritsch and Brown have been underwhelming and I'd be rewarding Chandler ahead of Bedford after last night. We need to find a working and cohesive forward line before September. 

Kosi down but can't be dropped unless he has another couple of weeks of poor form. 

Over the off season, we need to target a serious contested marking goal kick forward to straighten us up. Ben Brown and Fritsch require space and perfect kicking most of the time which they can't rely on because of the types of ball users we have through the midfield. Mostly blazers. 

But of work to do and next week we simply must win if we want to stay top four. I can see dogs, pies and Carlton all beating us. No game will be easy from here, gotta sort this out pronto.

Agree with all of this, but I don't think you're giving enough thought to the loss TMac is from a structural point of view. It means Brown is double teamed every time and our forwards can't get separation because we have to kick it to Brown to bring it to ground.

FWIW, I thought Brown was very good last night, particularly in the first half, but he almost always brought the ball to ground.

[Jaded No More 59,765]

4 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I would without hesitation. 

Except that we cannot afford to drop more games, especially against Port which is probably the 'easiest' game we have left for the year. You drop Fritta, you make a statement, but you also don't win the game, because you take away easily our best forward. 

[jnrmac 19,481]

1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

Hibberd looked every bit like a 32 year old coming off a 5-day break. He should have been rested (as suggested).

The side also missed another key forward on the skinny ground.

While this game was lost in the midfield, we have to be a bit smarter about selection on the short breaks. Our best 22 on paper is not always the best 22 to win the game. Since 2020 we are 1-4 on 4-day or 5-day breaks.

Hawkins and Cameron didn't tear us apart. It was their mids and smalls that killed us. We were woeful in picking up Duncan, Guthrie etc when they went forward. We were stuck on the flanks and they played through the middle

Goodwin was outcoached last night. Should have screamed:

1. Take the first option

2. defend the corridor side of the contests

3. Dont let the Cats chip kick fwd 

4. They are switching every second play FFS dont let them

[Sir Why You Little 35,318]

1 hour ago, Stiff Arm said:

Yes, but our run home last year was considerably easier. On current form we are in danger 5 of the remaining 6

That the finals are 6 weeks away is no comfort from the fact that we look very ordinary now and anything but a top 4 side. To think otherwise is head in the sand stuff

How specifically do you suggest we turn things around? What tactical or personnel changes are required?

Attitude and Fitness which will be under control  

I am not panicking 

You think we will lose 5 out of 6 games?

 

[Fat Tony 4,575]

6 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Hawkins and Cameron didn't tear us apart. It was their mids and smalls that killed us. We were woeful in picking up Duncan, Guthrie etc when they went forward. We were stuck on the flanks and they played through the middle

Goodwin was outcoached last night. Should have screamed:

1. Take the first option

2. defend the corridor side of the contests

3. Dont let the Cats chip kick fwd 

4. They are switching every second play FFS dont let them

I was saying WE lacked another key forward because we failed to compete a few times. I think we went in with one too many small forwards.

[Redleg 38,432]

57 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

 

Our kick ins to the same spot just make it ridiculously easy for the oppn to set up

 

 I can't stand this and it makes me question our coaching.

[Gawndy the Great 7,957]

23 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Hawkins and Cameron didn't tear us apart. It was their mids and smalls that killed us. We were woeful in picking up Duncan, Guthrie etc when they went forward. We were stuck on the flanks and they played through the middle

Goodwin was outcoached last night. Should have screamed:

1. Take the first option

2. defend the corridor side of the contests

3. Dont let the Cats chip kick fwd 

4. They are switching every second play FFS dont let them

Well im happy its under the spotlight in the media. This is the new Geelong game plan and it will now attract attention from their opposition. it was bit like our gameplan last year, it got attention but no body really took it seriously or did anything about it. This year, almost everybody knows how to play against us, so it boils down to who can execute better.  

Goody  has some accountability for this loss as well. The coaching group didn't take their style serious enough and were prepared to back our system against theirs. I think in the weeks to come, there will be some teams that are a little more bold and will show how to beat the Cats. I cannot see them winning finals with that style of game, but who knows. Right now, anyone in the top 6 can win it. 

[demon3165 2,300]

11 hours ago, layzie said:

I'm sure Langdon was screaming his head off too, this alerts you to look inboard. Kick to him quickly or run closer, draw the opponent in and handball over the top. Easy Joe the Goose goal. 

That's twice in games he has burnt someone in a better position.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,785]

1 hour ago, A F said:

I was at the game last night and we couldn't get out of first gear. I'm sure that was obvious on TV too. Yet we were level and should have been ahead 15 mins into the last quarter.

It was very clear watching it from the top of the centre wing stand that our defensive transition wasn't on all night. We allowed them short chips that we don't usually allow when we're on, we allowed Duncan to constantly sit at the back of stoppages unmarked and we allowed them to get into some incredibly dangerous goal side positions completely unmarked. Highly unusual. They constantly got it on the outside at stoppage too.

How often have we been beaten at stoppage like that in the last 5 years? I can't remember us losing stoppage by so much. 

Our fumbling was dreadful, May in particular was terrible again. I've said for a long time now, even for much of last year, that May panics with ball in hand in deep D50. Much prefer Petty, Bowey or Salem with ball in hand.

Lever also dropped quite a few marks he'd taken the previous two weeks. You can't let the ball hit the ground against their forward mob.

We each had a five day break, but we had interstate travel, they played at home against the worst AFL side since Melbourne in 2012-2013.

Can you tell I'm building an argument for exhaustion being a big factor in last night's game? 

It'll be interesting to see how we go against Port and the Bulldogs. If we've timed our run well, we should start to see a fitness turn around against Freo. 

Appreciate your comments mate. As someone who was at the ground would be good to know what the forward half looked like when we were rebounding off half back. The coverage was back to its typical rubbish last night with close in shots of contests without knowing what's happening upfield. So it was very frustrating seeing us try and handball in circles or take a split second too long to dispose of the footy but if there was nothing presenting upfield it's certainly understandable. Did we have no-one there? We're we outnumbered? Was it one on one contests with no clear targets?

I thought the Cats player us extremely well last night and we were clearly off. For all that we could have hit the lead with 10 minutes left. I still feel pretty positive after last night's game but we can't afford to drop many more games leading into finals.

 

[fr_ap 2,244]

2 hours ago, Vipercrunch said:

Here's some 2021 post bye facts for those that seem to be looking at 2021 with September colourled glasses on.

Round 15 - Held off Essendon by 11 points, 57-68.                                                              https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3108#match-report

Round 16 - Beaten by GWS by 9, 55-64.                                                                                https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3100#match-report

Round 17 - Our best game and win for this period, a 31 point win over Port Adelaide at their home ground, 55-86.      https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3125#match-report

Round 18 - After leading by 27 points midway through the second term, we finish with a draw with Hawthorn, 79-79.      https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3123#match-report

Round 19 - The Bulldogs get revenge for round 11 to beat us 65-85.                          https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3159#match-report

Our avergae score for this period was 70.6 (2021 season avergae was 85.8)

Our avergae score against this period was 68 (2021 season avergae was 65.6)

Interestingly, despite that 5 week record (6 if you include the 2021 QB loss to Collingwood 63-80), in the press conference after the Round 19 loss to WBD, when asked about our scoring, Simon Goodwin said "I'm not worried one bit", "We sit here confident", and in regards more generally to how the team was going, he said "I think we're pretty close. As a footy club we're not far away." and "We're certainly not going to jump at shadows."  

https://www.afl.com.au/news/652025/-not-worried-one-bit-goodwin-upbeat-on-dees-scoring-woes

https://www.afl.com.au/video/653832/full-post-match-demons?videoId=653832&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1627133400001

How is this relevant? "It happened last year so it will happen again"? Extremely simplistic, naive & IMO you/most in this thread are grasping for any explanation that makes you feel better about our form. 

There are so many different variables to this time last year - the most pertinent being we have a very tough run home  & have lost most games to our key top 8 competitors, whereas last year we lost/drew to teams well below us & knew very early we stacked up well against our key competitors. We had the measure of the best teams last year and they knew it. There'll be no fear this year & any of Geelong/Freo/Collingwood/Sydney/(Carlton when they beat us) will have a very clear understanding of how to deal with Melbourne at finals time. Brisbane (presuming they don't destroy us at the Gabba) the only ones who will have some memory of what we are like at our best. 

Crucially, in all of the games you've mentioned last year, we were relatively even statistically for scoring shots & inside 50s - it was either poor kicking or umpires (in the case of the bulldogs game) that cost us. QB against the Pies was the only aberration last year in terms of being comprehensively beaten in scoring shots/all over the ground. 

Last night we were whalloped in every statistical sense: 31 scoring shots to 18, -20 inside 50s, -25 clearances, conceded 15 marks i50 most within 35m dead in front, often within 20m of unguarded space, which does not happen to us very often. We were easy to score against. We took 6 marks i50 with most of those deep in the pockets. We had no answers at all & the shape of the ground excuse only goes so far. 

Against Sydney & Collingwood this year, we lost scoring shots comprehensively and conceded a lot of marks i50. Those games we had supply - relatively even i50s - but could not defend. We had some personnel issues (May, Petty) over this time that perhaps exacerbated this, so I'm willing to look past them. Fremantle we were outplayed & beaten in the contest, but the scoreboard looked worse than it was. Pressure and speed have been a consistent theme that we've been unable to cope with. IMO, the make up of the defence with 3 offensively minded/intercepting HBs (Bowey, Salem & Brayshaw) is having a lot to do with this without necessarily providing us any drive going forward. Small/pressure forwards are finding a lot of space against us, which wasn't the case last year. One or both of Hunt/Rivers are a requirement IMV especially with Hibberd's increasingly fragility. No mind their poorer distribution - all we do is kick it to contests at centre wing anyway. 

My point is - this year we are losing in quite a few different ways. We are losing contest, we are conceding marks i50, we aren't coping with pressure/speed and last night, we lost in every other way. We are relatively predictable & there is a clear blueprint emerging of how to beat us. 

Maybe this is all par for the course for a reigning premier - after what we did at the pointy end last year, you really get the feeling we are everyone's grand final (both from opposition coaches, players and fans collectively - the sheer joy teams display when they beat us tells you a bit). 

We are still in a great position & I have faith we can get it done - but we're a long way off. Other than giving us experience to draw upon & a degree of faith, last year has nothing to do with anything. 

I'd love to hear some actual reasoned explanation as to why you think any of the games you've quoted are a valid precedent for this year. "Loading" might be it - which none of us can confirm. 

As i said, grasping at straws.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,785]

1 hour ago, A F said:

I was thinking about this last night. Not having a recognise second tall plays havoc with our structure and IMV it's why our predictable down the line game doesn't work as well. McDonald's ability to take marks up the ground and ping it back inside 50 is a bit like Jeremy Cameron when on, so take Hawkins or Cameron out of their side and they're a very different proposition.

We should have Tom back for finals. I hope he can get a game or two before the heat of finals.

It's even more pronounced when Gawn and Jackson arent sticking marks.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,785]

9 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

How is this relevant? "It happened last year so it will happen again"? Extremely simplistic, naive & IMO you/most in this thread are grasping for any explanation that makes you feel better about our form. 

There are so many different variables to this time last year - the most pertinent being we have a very tough run home  & have lost most games to our key top 8 competitors, whereas last year we lost/drew to teams well below us & knew very early we stacked up well against our key competitors. We had the measure of the best teams last year and they knew it. There'll be no fear this year & any of Geelong/Freo/Collingwood/Sydney/(Carlton when they beat us) will have a very clear understanding of how to deal with Melbourne at finals time. Brisbane (presuming they don't destroy us at the Gabba) the only ones who will have some memory of what we are like at our best. 

Crucially, in all of the games you've mentioned last year, we were relatively even statistically for scoring shots & inside 50s - it was either poor kicking or umpires (in the case of the bulldogs game) that cost us. QB against the Pies was the only aberration last year in terms of being comprehensively beaten in scoring shots/all over the ground. 

Last night we were whalloped in every statistical sense: 31 scoring shots to 18, -20 inside 50s, -25 clearances, conceded 15 marks i50 most within 35m dead in front, often within 20m of unguarded space, which does not happen to us very often. We were easy to score against. We took 6 marks i50 with most of those deep in the pockets. We had no answers at all & the shape of the ground excuse only goes so far. 

Against Sydney & Collingwood this year, we lost scoring shots comprehensively and conceded a lot of marks i50. Those games we had supply - relatively even i50s - but could not defend. We had some personnel issues (May, Petty) over this time that perhaps exacerbated this, so I'm willing to look past them. Fremantle we were outplayed & beaten in the contest, but the scoreboard looked worse than it was. Pressure and speed have been a consistent theme that we've been unable to cope with. IMO, the make up of the defence with 3 offensively minded/intercepting HBs (Bowey, Salem & Brayshaw) is having a lot to do with this without necessarily providing us any drive going forward. Small/pressure forwards are finding a lot of space against us, which wasn't the case last year. One or both of Hunt/Rivers are a requirement IMV especially with Hibberd's increasingly fragility. No mind their poorer distribution - all we do is kick it to contests at centre wing anyway. 

My point is - this year we are losing in quite a few different ways. We are losing contest, we are conceding marks i50, we aren't coping with pressure/speed and last night, we lost in every other way. We are relatively predictable & there is a clear blueprint emerging of how to beat us. 

Maybe this is all par for the course for a reigning premier - after what we did at the pointy end last year, you really get the feeling we are everyone's grand final (both from opposition coaches, players and fans collectively - the sheer joy teams display when they beat us tells you a bit). 

We are still in a great position & I have faith we can get it done - but we're a long way off. Other than giving us experience to draw upon & a degree of faith, last year has nothing to do with anything. 

I'd love to hear some actual reasoned explanation as to why you think any of the games you've quoted are a valid precedent for this year. "Loading" might be it - which none of us can confirm. 

As i said, grasping at straws.

And despite all that we are 2nd on the ladder with 6 games left. Imagine if we actually start playing well!

[Binmans PA 26,663]

20 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Appreciate your comments mate. As someone who was at the ground would be good to know what the forward half looked like when we were rebounding off half back. The coverage was back to its typical rubbish last night with close in shots of contests without knowing what's happening upfield. So it was very frustrating seeing us try and handball in circles or take a split second too long to dispose of the footy but if there was nothing presenting upfield it's certainly understandable. Did we have no-one there? We're we outnumbered? Was it one on one contests with no clear targets?

I thought the Cats player us extremely well last night and we were clearly off. For all that we could have hit the lead with 10 minutes left. I still feel pretty positive after last night's game but we can't afford to drop many more games leading into finals.

 

Our mids didn't push hard enough both ways, so when we had the ball at half back and were rebounding through the wings, we had 3 or 4 players forward of the ball too often and not enough mids in support.

Compare that with the first quarter and we had that work rate, which enabled is to hit up forwards like Fritsch on a lead or kick goals like Trac's from 50.

If you look at the replay of Trac's goal, which was elite team play and finishing from Trac, we swarmed and were able to turn the ball over closer to our goal and make the right decision.

Late in the third when we started to arrest momentum, our mids started to get to more contests and apply frontal pressure to Geelong's half backs. The first half of the last quarter we were able to play more territory, but our half forwards across the night played very high, but weren't able to apply enough consistent pressure, I felt, to Geelong's mids and half backs.

Edited July 8, 2022 by A F

[dees189227 11,249]

Oh more great news Dangerfield is going the 7 commentary team. Does Nathan Jones still do commentary for them?

[Macca 16,174]

Reality is that more than half the team were down on their best last night

The MC might be happy to go with the same 22 with a message to make amends

If we want to point the finger at individual mistakes made by all & sundry, there would be a lot of finger pointing

As a team, we weren't up to scratch and that includes the coaching dept.  Too much handballing and we were indirect

[Vipercrunch 2,818]

17 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

How is this relevant? "It happened last year so it will happen again"? Extremely simplistic, naive & IMO you/most in this thread are grasping for any explanation that makes you feel better about our form. 

There are so many different variables to this time last year - the most pertinent being we have a very tough run home  & have lost most games to our key top 8 competitors, whereas last year we lost/drew to teams well below us & knew very early we stacked up well against our key competitors. We had the measure of the best teams last year and they knew it. There'll be no fear this year & any of Geelong/Freo/Collingwood/Sydney/(Carlton when they beat us) will have a very clear understanding of how to deal with Melbourne at finals time. Brisbane (presuming they don't destroy us at the Gabba) the only ones who will have some memory of what we are like at our best. 

Crucially, in all of the games you've mentioned last year, we were relatively even statistically for scoring shots & inside 50s - it was either poor kicking or umpires (in the case of the bulldogs game) that cost us. QB against the Pies was the only aberration last year in terms of being comprehensively beaten in scoring shots/all over the ground. 

Last night we were whalloped in every statistical sense: 31 scoring shots to 18, -20 inside 50s, -25 clearances, conceded 15 marks i50 most within 35m dead in front, often within 20m of unguarded space, which does not happen to us very often. We were easy to score against. We took 6 marks i50 with most of those deep in the pockets. We had no answers at all & the shape of the ground excuse only goes so far. 

Against Sydney & Collingwood this year, we lost scoring shots comprehensively and conceded a lot of marks i50. Those games we had supply - relatively even i50s - but could not defend. We had some personnel issues (May, Petty) over this time that perhaps exacerbated this, so I'm willing to look past them. Fremantle we were outplayed & beaten in the contest, but the scoreboard looked worse than it was. Pressure and speed have been a consistent theme that we've been unable to cope with. IMO, the make up of the defence with 3 offensively minded/intercepting HBs (Bowey, Salem & Brayshaw) is having a lot to do with this without necessarily providing us any drive going forward. Small/pressure forwards are finding a lot of space against us, which wasn't the case last year. One or both of Hunt/Rivers are a requirement IMV especially with Hibberd's increasingly fragility. No mind their poorer distribution - all we do is kick it to contests at centre wing anyway. 

My point is - this year we are losing in quite a few different ways. We are losing contest, we are conceding marks i50, we aren't coping with pressure/speed and last night, we lost in every other way. We are relatively predictable & there is a clear blueprint emerging of how to beat us. 

Maybe this is all par for the course for a reigning premier - after what we did at the pointy end last year, you really get the feeling we are everyone's grand final (both from opposition coaches, players and fans collectively - the sheer joy teams display when they beat us tells you a bit). 

We are still in a great position & I have faith we can get it done - but we're a long way off. Other than giving us experience to draw upon & a degree of faith, last year has nothing to do with anything. 

I'd love to hear some actual reasoned explanation as to why you think any of the games you've quoted are a valid precedent for this year. "Loading" might be it - which none of us can confirm. 

As i said, grasping at straws.

I get it. You’re a pessimistic hand wringer and feel more comfortable thinking we will fail. You do you.  I’ll do me.  We’ll find out in 2 months who had a better read on our current circumstances.