2023 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch

[adonski 12,436]

13 hours ago, Colm said:

Interesting with Duursma and Simpson. We must rate both highly. Duursma is being tipped to be a top 5 pick so may not be with our reach unless we trade up. If the Suns finish with a higher pick that Freo then they will be better placed to trade up and grab a player before their academy player gets called. 
Would it be breaking any rules or ethically wrong if we told Duursma that we would pick him with our pick if he’s still on the board?- trying to ignite a bit of stay at home factor in him. 
Hawks will probably finish with pick one and take Reid. North will probably be the only other Vic team with a pick ahead of Freo,s(ours). 

North & WCE I could imagine being open to splitting their first pick (assuming it isn't pick 1)

[Pennant St Dee 13,305]

On 4/22/2023 at 11:22 PM, Gawndy the Great said:

Would Harley Reid be worth it? We would conceivably have to give up Our R1 and Freo’s R1 and possibly our R2 or F1 depending on how all the picks land. 
 

Assuming current ladder positions that would look like:

P6, P13, P32 for P1 . That’s about 3500 points for 3000. Similar trade value for WC pickswap last year which saw it give 2 for 8 and 12. Maybe it’s our F2. 

Big call amd it’s early days… so we’ll just have to wait and see.

 

I don’t see anything in Reid’s highlights to suggest he’s any better than Sam Walsh, Will Ashcroft, JHF or Sheezel.  Cal Twomey and all these draft experts get carried away with talking these kids up,  Crows are thanking their lucky stars North didn’t accept their offer to get access to Pick 1 for JHF.

[Demon Disciple 12,274]

Pick 1’s don’t often end up being the best player from their draft year.

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,246]

8 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

Pick 1’s don’t often end up being the best player from their draft year.

100%. That's why it would be great if we can get two early picks this year. One being the Freo pick and the other a potential trade up.

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

If there’s a chance he could be the next Dusty he’ll if he was 90% of Dusty, you’d do it in a heart beat. Don’t even need to think about it. 

 

[Dee-licious 1,954]

Whoever gets #1 will keep it. We’ve seen with Daicos this year what an impact a young player can have. Reid is better. I’m not sure you could trade 3 top 10s for him. 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

I don’t think it’s that clear cut. 2-3 first rounders will do much to accelerate a rebuild and get bottom dwellers into Finals 1-2 years quicker. I think Hawks will take the trade. But I won’t be loosing sleep if the didn’t. Our current draft hand will do us just fine as well. 

[adonski 12,436]

 

[adonski 12,436]

 

[Sydee 4,529]

Both Reid and Duursma very impressive given it’s a big step up at their current age 

[Edm 104]

Watching Reid and dursma small highlights 

I think I prefer dursma 

reminds me of Connor rozee 

would be a nice addition 

[adonski 12,436]

4 minutes ago, Edm said:

Watching Reid and dursma small highlights 

I think I prefer dursma 

reminds me of Connor rozee 

would be a nice addition 

They were only glimpses but he looks like has all the traits you look for doesn't he. Speed, aerial ability, versatility & skill.

[Fat Tony 5,270]

28 minutes ago, adonski said:

 

You don’t have to be Jason Taylor to recognise this kid is special. 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

Both look decent in their first hit out with the VFL. But is there three first rounds picks worth for Reid? I’m honestly it would be a big call. 

[adonski 12,436]

Duursma seems like such a Hawks pick 

[fr_ap 2,529]

How can you possibly watch those two videos and prefer Duursma? 

Looks to have some time, reads the play well and a good team ethos, but nothing he actually did with the ball was impressive.

Reid was far more impactful, powerful and looked too good for the level already tbh. 

Given the choice (yes we may not have it), it's Reid every time.

[Pinball Wizard 326]

VFL Player Focus: Harley Reid (Carlton)

[layzie 34,013]

Is the cameo in the VFL thing a new thing in recent years?

[BangBnagBang 703]

28 minutes ago, layzie said:

Is the cameo in the VFL thing a new thing in recent years?

Yeah the last few years. Aimed at giving the VIC kids a chance to play against men as per the WAFL and SANFL kids can.

[radar 1,865]

On 4/19/2023 at 8:54 PM, JimmyGadson said:

Best available is always how they go with club's putting a premium on certain attributes over others. 

I'm sure we'll see a mix of players given how well positioned we'll be at the draft. I'm just excited about the potential of having two picks inside 10 given the depth of high end talent there is this year and I can't see us going wrong whichever way we go. 

Our program is humming, so whoever we bring in will be given every chance to reach their potential. And the higher the talent, the higher the potential. 

I like Watson because what he brings is multifaceted. I think our club needs more excitement factor both in the way we play but also personality. Watson is like Papley. He will bring supporters and kids along for the ride just like Pickett and the MFC need a couple more of those players. Last year our crowds were so quiet it was baffling. Part of that was our boring predictable game style, but another part of it is personnel. We need players who will bring excitement and an edge to our crowds. Collingwood have several of those etypes, Carlton the same, Brisbane etc. 

Excitable small forwards can do wonders for a club and because we aren't the most polished midfield unit going around, I think we need another highly skilled and polished small forward who brings an edge. Spargo, ANB and Chandler play a role. But this guy will create opportunities where there are none. Like Pickett. 

I want him. 

….we aren’t the most polished midfield…

Really?

Who is?

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

7 hours ago, radar said:

….we aren’t the most polished midfield…

Really?

Who is?

I'm talking footskills and composure with ball in hand. 

I don't know who is, but I'd say off the top of my head that Brisbane, Essendon, Collingwood, Dogs are ahead of us in that area. 

Now before anyone jumps the gun to defend, I clearly understand that our one wood is our ability to win contest after contest at the coal face and our mids excel in that area. 

I made the comment in regard to our entries going forward from stoppages and how we can improve in that area this year whilst we have the personnel we do. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 4/26/2023 at 10:07 PM, Dee-licious said:

Whoever gets #1 will keep it. We’ve seen with Daicos this year what an impact a young player can have. Reid is better. I’m not sure you could trade 3 top 10s for him. 

Daicos  went at 4 but I guess he could have gone at 1 if he wasn't a father-son that everyone knew Collingwood would take.

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

23 hours ago, fr_ap said:

How can you possibly watch those two videos and prefer Duursma? 

Looks to have some time, reads the play well and a good team ethos, but nothing he actually did with the ball was impressive.

Reid was far more impactful, powerful and looked too good for the level already tbh. 

Given the choice (yes we may not have it), it's Reid every time.

I hear you. 

But here's what I'd say. Harley is further ahead physically and clearly better prepared to impact at VFL level at this stage. Which evidently is what happened. 

Secondly, VFL is played at a slower pace, skills are worse and games are played on smaller grounds. This gives Reid an advantage because the ball is in congestion more often and Reid has the frame to compete. 

However, I completely disagree regarding your comments about Duursma doing nothing impressive with the ball. 

Have a look how effective and efficient Duursma was in tight with his handballing to release a player, and the fact that he didn't shirk contests despite his lighter frame. That is a hugely positive sign for a player of his size at this stage. 

His speed and the ease at which he moved was super impressive and he flew for a few marks which again is a sign of not being afraid of body contact. Really promising. He also showed a great appetite for tackling and putting pressure on. 

I'd say if anything, he wasn't as efficient or deadly by foot as he usually is which in my eyes is least concerning as we know that's where he excels. 

I reckon you should go and have a look at some of Fyfe's under 18's year and watch the way he plays for a player who doesn't have the body to match the attributes/temperament. 

Reid will be a dead set gun, make no mistake. Duursma has the potential and capacity to be a Bont/Fyfe type of prototype champion player. 

And if you listen to the guy, he is as driven and competitive as they come and incredibly mature. 

We'll be right in the mix for him and I imagine we'll be doing anything we can to land him. I can't wait. 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by JimmyGadson

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 4/24/2023 at 12:58 PM, Demon Disciple said:

Pick 1’s don’t often end up being the best player from their draft year.

Well that's just mathematics. You're comparing 1 selection against all the others (say roughly 60) in a given year. More to the point how to Pick 1s do against each of Picks 2, 3, 4, 5...... Now there are Pick 1s and then there are Pick 1s. If the player you want is likely to be available at the Pick you have clearly you don't trade up.

On 4/24/2023 at 1:07 PM, DistrACTION Jackson said:

100%. That's why it would be great if we can get two early picks this year. One being the Freo pick and the other a potential trade up.

I guess it depends on needs, depth of the draft, likely availability of the player you want, depth of your current list... A lot of unknowns. But I take your point.

[fr_ap 2,529]

1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

I hear you. 

But here's what I'd say. Harley is further ahead physically and clearly better prepared to impact at VFL level at this stage. Which evidently is what happened. 

Secondly, VFL is played at a slower pace, skills are worse and games are played on smaller grounds. This gives Reid an advantage because the ball is in congestion more often and Reid has the frame to compete. 

However, I completely disagree regarding your comments about Duursma doing nothing impressive with the ball. 

Have a look how effective and efficient Duursma was in tight with his handballing to release a player, and the fact that he didn't shirk contests despite his lighter frame. That is a hugely positive sign for a player of his size at this stage. 

His speed and the ease at which he moved was super impressive and he flew for a few marks which again is a sign of not being afraid of body contact. Really promising. He also showed a great appetite for tackling and putting pressure on. 

I'd say if anything, he wasn't as efficient or deadly by foot as he usually is which in my eyes is least concerning as we know that's where he excels. 

I reckon you should go and have a look at some of Fyfe's under 18's year and watch the way he plays for a player who doesn't have the body to match the attributes/temperament. 

Reid will be a dead set gun, make no mistake. Duursma has the potential and capacity to be a Bont/Fyfe type of prototype champion player. 

And if you listen to the guy, he is as driven and competitive as they come and incredibly mature. 

We'll be right in the mix for him and I imagine we'll be doing anything we can to land him. I can't wait. 

 

 

Fair enough, appreciate the long explanation. I can see the scope and I mentioned he has timing and poise, but I think by comparing to Fyfe / Bont etc you're affirming your own preconceptions of an absolute optimum scenario for his body type. If Cale Morton was getting drafted this year, I've no doubt he would be getting Bont comparisons as well. 

I try to watch draftee vids with no archetypes in mind as pretty simply, what makes champions champions is more often between the ears, and from afar I don't have the means to assess that. In this area, Duursma could be streets ahead of Reid...but that's not for me to judge. What I can judge from footage is what, should their mentality be high level, a potential ceiling on their play could look like given a certain physical profile and playstyle. From what I see Reid's physicality and authority could provide a higher ceiling. 

But of course no guarantees either way....Zane could develop such authority (as Fyfe and Bont did) & Reid could flounder against bigger bodies!