eth-dog's 2021 Phantom

[The Great Pretender 463]

Without wanting to steal Mad As Hell’s thunder, this is a good one that I found on bigfooty by a regular in eth-dog who says he’s “one of the first mugs to do a draft.” He’s also done write ups on the first round which you can find here. 

Round 1

Pick 1 North Melbourne: Jason Horne-Francis (184 cm/78 kg, Balanced Midfielder, South Adelaide).

Pick 2 Collingwood: Nick Daicos (182/73 , BM, Oakleigh Chargers). GWS bid, 2517x0.8=2013.6 points, matched with picks 27, 36, 46, 48, 55, 31.4 point surplus for 2022.

Pick 3 Western Bulldogs: Sam Darcy (204/75, Key Position Swingman, Oakleigh Chargers). GWS bid, 2234x0.8=1787.2 points, matched with picks 23, 43, 44, 45, 114.8 point surplus for 2022.

Pick 4 Greater Western Sydney: Finn Callaghan (189/82, BM, Sandringham Dragons).

Pick 5 Gold Coast: Josh Gibcus (195/84, Key Defender, GWV Rebels).

Pick 6 Adelaide: Ben Hobbs (183/80, Inside Midfielder, GWV Rebels).

Pick 7 Hawthorn: Josh Ward (181/79, Outside Midfielder, Northern Knights).

Pick 8 Fremantle: Jye Amiss (195/85, Key Forward, East Perth).

Pick 9 Richmond: Mac Andrew (200/70, KF/Ruck, Dandenong Stingrays). There's debate where he ends up, but for now they need to get another forward/ruck on the list, and with Nankervis having a few years left in him they get a chance to develop him as a forward rather than a ruck for now.

Pick 10 Fremantle: Neil Erasmus (188/80, IM, Subiaco).

Pick 11 St. Kilda: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (188/70, OM, Glenelg).

Pick 12 West Coast: Matthew Johnson (192/82, IM, Subiaco).

Pick 13 Essendon: Josh Goater (190/79, Midfielder/Forward, Calder Cannons).

Pick 14 Port Adelaide: Arlo Draper (186/75, M/F, South Adelaide).

Pick 15 Greater Western Sydney: Josh Rachele (180/78, Small Forward, Murray Bushrangers).

Pick 16 Brisbane Josh Sinn (186/73, Half Back, Sandringham Dragons). 

Pick 17 Richmond: Tyler Sonsie (181/77, BM, Eastern Ranges).

Pick 18 Sydney: Campbell Chesser (186/83, BM, Sandringham Dragons).

Pick 19, Melbourne: Jacob van Rooyen (193/91, KF, Claremont). van Rooyen's last month has put him from the fringe of the first round into definitely going in there. Melbourne's young KPP stocks are an issue and if available here they'll snap him right up I'm sure.

Pick 20, Brisbane: Matthew Roberts (183/81, IM, South Adelaide).

Pick 21, Fremantle: Jesse Motlop (176/74, SF, South Fremantle).

[The Great Pretender 463]

Round 2

Pick 22 North Melbourne: Rhett Bazzo (195/79, KD, Swan Districts).

Pick 23 Hawthorn: Darcy Wilmott (183/75, HB, Northern Knights).

Pick 24 Geelong: Mitchell Knevitt (193/81, IM, Geelong Falcons).

Pick 25 Hawthorn: Ned Long (192/88, IM, Northern Knights).

Pick 26 Greater Western Sydney: Josh Fahey (186/76 HB, GWS Academy). Carlton bid, 729-197=592 points, match with picks 47 and 64, go into 115 point deficit 2022

Pick 27 Carlton: Blake Howes (190/79 M/F, Sandringham Dragons).

Pick 28 St. Kilda: Michito Owens (190/85 IM, Sandringham Dragons). Richmond bid, 677-197=480 points, match with picks 54, 58 and 59, have a 68 point surplus

Pick 29 Richmond: Zac Taylor (180/74 SF, Calder Cannons).

Pick 30 Richmond: Leek Alleer (195/84 KD, Central Districts).

Pick 31 West Coast: Angus Sheldrick (179/84 IM, Claremont).

Pick 32 Geelong: Sam Butler (184/73 SF, GWV Rebels).

Pick 33 St. Kilda: Marcus Windhager (183/82 OM, Sandringham Dragons). Sydney bid, 563-197=366 points, match pick 75 and 68 point surplus, go into 298 point deficit in 2022

Pick 34 Sydney: Judson Clarke (179/69 SF, Dandenong Stingrays).

Pick 35 Geelong: Brady Hough (189/71 IM, Peel Thunder).

Pick 36 Adelaide: Connor Macdonald (184/77 OM, Dandenong Stingrays).

Pick 37 Geelong: Tom Brown (186/71 Utility, Murray Bushrangers).

Pick 38 West Coast: Josh Browne (185/77 IM, East Fremantle).

Pick 39 Melbourne: Jack Williams (194/95 KF, East Fremantle).

Pick 40 Richmond: Kai Lohmann (185/76 Medium Forward, GWV Rebels).

Pick 41 Sydney: Charlie Dean (195/86 KD, Williamstown).

Round 3

Pick 42 Richmond: Hugh Jackson (181/70 IM, North Adelaide).

Pick 43 Brisbane: Paul Curtis (181/71 SF, Western Jets).

Pick 44 Port Adelaide: Jase Burgoyne (186/65 HB, Woodville-West Torrens). North Melbourne bid, 362-197=165, match with pick 55, 42 point surplus 2022.

Pick 45 North Melbourne: Cooper Murley (178/69 SF, Norwood).

Pick 46 North Melbourne: Luke Nankervis (189/76 MF, Sandringham Dragons).

Pick 47 Melbourne: Jamieson Ballantyne (183/79 OM, GWV Rebels).

Pick 48 Geelong: Charlie Molan (186/78 OM, GWV Rebels).

Pick 49 Essendon: Jahmal Stretch (181/62 SF, Claremont).

Pick 50 Western Bulldogs: Noah Pegoraro (194/88 KD, West Perth).

Pick 51 Brisbane: Corey Warner (182/74 IM, East Fremantle).

Pick 52 Essendon: Miller Bergman (188/65 HB, Dandenong Stingrays).

Pick 53 Melbourne: James Willis (180/75 OM, North Adelaide).

Pick 54 Collingwood: Felix Flockhart (200/79 KF/R, Sandringham).

Round 4

Pick 55 Hawthorn: Samuel Banks (187/73 HB, Tasmania).

Pick 56 Brisbane: Cameron McLeod (192/78 MF, Murray Bushrangers).

Pick 57 Fremantle: Jai Serong (192/80 IM, Gippsland Power).

Pick 58 Carlton: Mani Liddy (183/80 IM, Sturt).

Pick 59 Hawthorn: Oscar Morrison (193/86 Utility, Geelong Falcons).

Pick 60 Fremantle: Eric Benning (196/85 KF/R, Claremont). West Coast bid, 0 points to match, Fremantle match with pick 61, 135 points in surplus 2022.

Pick 61 Melbourne: Taj Woewodin (182/77 OM, East Fremantle). West Coast bid, 0 points to match, Melbourne match with pick 85.

Pick 62 West Coast: Judd McVee (178/65 HB, East Fremantle).

Pick 63 Sydney: Blayne O’Loughlin (171/74 HB, North Adelaide).

Pick 64 North Melbourne: Lachlan Rankin (182/68 HB, Oakleigh Chargers).

Pick 65 Port Adelaide: Hugh Stagg (179/80 IM, Glenelg).

Pick 66 Port Adelaide: Sam Breuer (183/80 IM, GWV Rebels).

Pick 67 Adelaide: Lewis Rayson (183/69 HB, Glenelg).

Pick 68 Brisbane: Cooper Hamilton (182/69 SF, Bendigo Pioneers).
 

[WERRIDEE 5,447]

We only have 3 picks I think so Woewodin will have to be rookied.

[WERRIDEE 5,447]

Is there a chance Chandler can have 1 year rookie and 1 year senior list with his 2 year contract? If he has to go on the senior list we only have 2 picks.

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,083]

2 WA boys to start. Known to Luke and Trent?

A Stretch going to Essendon 🙁

[deejammin' 2,370]

25 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

We only have 3 picks I think so Woewodin will have to be rookied.

We currently have 34 players on the senior list (including upgrades to Jordan and Chandler). We also have 4 players on the category A rookie list. (Not including Hore and Declase who, if they stay take us to 35 and 5 leaving us with only 2 list spots).
Once you have 4 category A rookies it makes no difference to total list spots whether you rookie or senior list a player as you can either have 36 senior players and 6 cat A rookies or 38 senior players and 4 cat A rookies (or 37 senior, 5 A rookie also). The total between the two categories must be no more than 42. Because we have 4 A rookies already it makes it largely meaningless whether Chandler is on the rookie list or main list next year, we would still have four spots.

The easiest way to think of it now is Melbourne can take 4 players total onto our list through draft, or keeping Hore and Declase, or pre-season or DFA.
So to do what is listed in this phantom we would be delisting Hore and Declase and taking all four players through the draft. Because another club has bid on Woey in this example we would have to draft him to the main list but even if he fell through the entire draft and we category A rookied him that’s it for list spots. 
The only additional spots we then have are two category B rookie spots but they have specific rules and I’m not sure we could cat B Woewodin even if he fell through the entire draft.

Edited October 16, 2021 by deejammin'

[WERRIDEE 5,447]

8 minutes ago, deejammin' said:

We currently have 34 players on the senior list (including upgrades to Jordan and Chandler). We also have 4 players on the category A rookie list. (Not including Hore and Declase who, if they stay take us to 35 and 5 leaving us with only 2 list spots).
Once you have 4 category A rookies it makes no difference to total list spots whether you rookie or senior list a player as you can either have 36 senior players and 6 cat A rookies or 38 senior players and 4 cat A rookies (or 37 senior, 5 A rookie also). The total between the two categories must be no more than 42. Because we have 4 A rookies already it makes it largely meaningless whether Chandler is on the rookie list or main list next year, we would still have four spots.

The easiest way to think of it now is Melbourne can take 4 players total onto our list through draft, or keeping Hore and Declase, or pre-season or DFA.
So to do what is listed in this phantom we would be delisting Hore and Declase and taking all four players through the draft. Because another club has bid on Woey in this example we would have to draft him to the main list but even if he fell through the entire draft and we category A rookied him that’s it for list spots. 
The only additional spots we then have are two category B rookie spots but they have specific rules and I’m not sure we could cat B Woewodin even if he fell through the entire draft.

Thanks for that. I think we will have 3 picks in the draft and 1 rookie making our list 37 and 5. Good to see that it doesn't matter if Chandler is on the senior list or not so we can go with one less rookie.

[Demonstone 22,335]

His prediction at pick 47, Jamo Ballantyne, is from my home town of Portland.

We haven't had one from there since the glory days of the 50s with Stewart Spencer and Clyde Laidlaw.

[Jibroni 4,987]

Love the Pick 53 prediction

[deejammin' 2,370]

While it’s always great to see any informed draft like this I think this phantom greatly overestimates our need for key position players.
If Van Rooyen slides to us at 19 I think we’ll definitely take him but to then take another KPF/(D) in Williams at 39 seems very unlikely. That would put Williams behind Brown, McDonald, Weideman, Brown and Van Rooyen in the forward line and behind May, Lever, Petty, Tomlinson, Smith and Turner (I did a whole thread on our positional needs heading into the draft elsewhere). Particularly with next year said to be a great draft for talls at the most I see us taking one KP and one developing ruck. If we get Van Rooyen we will go a mid at 39 (or very unlikely but possibly a ruck). 
Two forwards also starts leaving our list a little too tall heavy, Gawn, Jackson, Daw, Brown, McDonald, Weideman, Brown, May, Lever, Petty, Tomlinson, Turner, Smith and Van Rooyen is already close to a third of our list on talls with only 10 out and out mids it starts getting out of balance. Taking 3 mids is ideal for balance having lost Jones and Vanders and possibly Declase and only bringing in Dunstan.

[adonski 11,927]

Just now, deejammin' said:

While it’s always great to see any informed draft like this I think this phantom greatly overestimates our need for key position players.
If Van Rooyen slides to us at 19 I think we’ll definitely take him but to then take another KPF/(D) in Williams at 39 seems very unlikely. That would put Williams behind Brown, McDonald, Weideman, Brown and Van Rooyen in the forward line and behind May, Lever, Petty, Tomlinson, Smith and Turner (I did a whole thread on our positional needs heading into the draft elsewhere). Particularly with next year said to be a great draft for talls at the most I see us taking one KP and one developing ruck. If we get Van Rooyen we will go a mid at 39 (or very unlikely but possibly a ruck). 
Two forwards also starts leaving our list a little too tall heavy, Gawn, Jackson, Daw, Brown, McDonald, Weideman, Brown, May, Lever, Petty, Tomlinson, Turner, Smith and Van Rooyen is already close to a third of our list on talls with only 10 out and out mids it starts getting out of balance. Taking 3 mids is ideal for balance having lost Jones and Vanders and possibly Declase and only bringing in Dunstan.

Spot on. We will have one of Weid or T Mac, and potentially Tomlinson at VFL level next year as KPP depth.

Unless we get a tall we rate highly slide to us at pick 17, I'm finding it hard to believe we take one early.

[Redleg 40,858]

2 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

We only have 3 picks I think so Woewodin will have to be rookied.

Hore and Declase unsigned. Could be another pick coming.

[deejammin' 2,370]

4 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Hore and Declase unsigned. Could be another pick coming.

If we re-sign Hore and Declase we have 2 picks, only one of them 3 picks, neither of them 4 picks.the most we can have is 4 picks with either 2 rookies, 2 main or 1 rookie 3 main or 4 main. We can’t gain any more picks at this stage. The Maximum new players coming onto our list will be 6 with four as above and two category B rookies.

Edited October 16, 2021 by deejammin'

[Turner 1,508]

theres absolutely no way blayne o'laughlin gets all the way to 62 he's looked really composed in the last two months for SA out of the back half and when he starts getting the wheels going he'll be a weapon, also if he gets that deep, this guy has gone sentimental and given him to the swans but he's a crows NGA prospect and if he's on the board at 63 there's no way they won't take him

[Whispering_Jack 29,825]

I suspect that in the actual draft there will be more clubs passing and less selections overall. I can see Melbourne taking only 2 or 3 picks in the draft given the number of players it’s retained. 

Michael Hibberd should take up a one year contract and one of Marty Hore or Kye Declase being the unlucky one to miss out.

[spirit of norm smith 16,309]

Very good phantom.  

Dees likely to use only 3 picks.
Drafting two key position forwards is highly unlikely.  Corey Warner at 50+ would be a steal. 
Where is Isaac Birt? 
 

[Demonstone 22,335]

20 hours ago, Demonstone said:

His prediction at pick 47, Jamo Ballantyne, is from my home town of Portland.

Nice write-up about Ballantyne in this morning's 'Age'.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/driven-ballantyne-s-long-road-to-the-cusp-of-the-afl-20211015-p5909x.html

[Dante 2,739]

22 hours ago, Demonstone said:

His prediction at pick 47, Jamo Ballantyne, is from my home town of Portland.

We haven't had one from there since the glory days of the 50s with Stewart Spencer and Clyde Laidlaw.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/driven-ballantyne-s-long-road-to-the-cusp-of-the-afl-20211015-p5909x.html

Read this this morning and his story reminds me of how Tmac had to travel hours to get to training and how dedicated he was to getting on to an AFL list. I googled him but I couldn't find anything.

Do you know anything about him?

[Demonstone 22,335]

58 minutes ago, Dante said:

Do you know anything about him?

He's been consistently good without starring for North Ballarat Rebels on a wing this year and there doesn't seem to be a huge gap between his best and his worst.

By all reports, he is a dedicated, hard working and level-headed kid who would give his all to play AFL.

[Deefiant 441]

On 10/16/2021 at 12:47 PM, deejammin' said:

Two forwards also starts leaving our list a little too tall heavy, Gawn, Jackson, Daw, Brown, McDonald, Weideman, Brown, May, Lever, Petty, Tomlinson, Turner, Smith and Van Rooyen is already close to a third of our list on talls with only 10 out and out mids it starts getting out of balance. Taking 3 mids is ideal for balance having lost Jones and Vanders and possibly Declase and only bringing in Dunstan.

I think you need to look at our age profile rather than the numbers. From your list Gawn, Daw, Brown, McDonald, Brown, May (Tomlinson is borderline) will be pushing 30 next year. Weideman, Lever, Smith are in the sweet spot of around 23-28 with only Lever in the best 22. The young ones we have Jackson, Petty and Turner. It looks pretty light on to me. Our core mids are in the sweet spot and have depth backing it up (Jordon and Sparrow). To me it looks like we need to boost our KP talent for when our talls start tailing off in their late careers, whereas our mids will be solid for the next few years. 

I don't think it'll have too big of a bearing on Taylor anyway. I think if there's a talent he'll take it regardless of need. 

[deejammin' 2,370]

4 hours ago, Deefiant said:

I think you need to look at our age profile rather than the numbers. From your list Gawn, Daw, Brown, McDonald, Brown, May (Tomlinson is borderline) will be pushing 30 next year. Weideman, Lever, Smith are in the sweet spot of around 23-28 with only Lever in the best 22. The young ones we have Jackson, Petty and Turner. It looks pretty light on to me. Our core mids are in the sweet spot and have depth backing it up (Jordon and Sparrow). To me it looks like we need to boost our KP talent for when our talls start tailing off in their late careers, whereas our mids will be solid for the next few years. 

I don't think it'll have too big of a bearing on Taylor anyway. I think if there's a talent he'll take it regardless of need. 

Yes and no. 
Gawn is contracted until 2025. We’d be hoping he plays well for at least the next 2-3 years.

B Brown and McDonald contracted til 2024 ditto

May 2023

We’d be planning to have these guys in our best 22 for at least the next two years with the other younger guys pushing them for spots. Two of them were all Australian this year and the other two had their best year in ages, they’re hardly on the edge of the cliff and even then, with the exception of Gawn, there’s competition for their spots.

I agree we need to start developing young KP players and Rucks but I think it will be split over the next two- three years and with next years draft largely touted as tall heavy I doubt we’ll take more than one KP this year (unless there’s someone there Jason Taylor really rates of course and I’d always back him in). We are also light for mids when compared with other lists. Here it is (don’t jump down my throat if there’s a few players you think aren’t mids, it’s who champion data lists as mids from each list):

Melbourne now: Trac, Clarry, Viney, Harmes, Sparrow, Langdon, Brayshaw, Jordan, Dunstan, Laurie, Baker, Rosman, 12

Dogs 2021: Bont, MacRae, Libba, Treloar, Dunkley, Wallis, Bailey Smith, Hunter, Butler, Lipinski, Hayes, Roarke-Smith, Lin Jong. 13

Brisbane 2021: Neale, Zorko, Lyons, McCluggage, M Robinson, Berry, D Robertson, Ely Smith, Prior, Sharp, Ellis-Yoleman, Joyce, Bailey, Mathieson, Micheal. 14

Geelong 2021: Dangerfield, Selwood, Guthrie, Parfitt, Clark, I Smith, Duncan, Menegola, O’Connor, Holmes, Stephens, Constable, Narkle, Brownless, 14

Port 2021: Wines, Powell-Pepper, Duursma, Boak, Amon, Butters, Rockliff, Bergman, Farrell, Drew, Burgoyne, Schofield, Mead. 13

The AFL average for mids on a list is 14, we are two below that with Dunstan so need to draft at least two. A lot of clubs have 15 or 16, I can’t find any with less than 13, and the dogs 13 bats pretty deep, Ports 13 mids was thought of as thin all year.

So yeah, we need to top up on KP over the next 3 years, but not urgently, we also need a developing ruck, but hopefully not urgently. We really need more mids, and this draft is laden with them, that’s what I think we’ll take. Mac Andrew would’ve been nice though, a developing ruck who can play forward who had a relationship with the club, ahhh well.

Edited October 18, 2021 by deejammin'

[deejammin' 2,370]

Also with 7 members of our GF best 22 under 22, and many more in the 22-28 year old sweet spot I don’t think our age profile will worry us as much as other teams. We can go for it the next two years  largely with the team we have and then see what’s around if our stars start retiring. As long as we’re bringing in two quality kids a year we’ll be fine.

I also agree that for Jason Taylor it’s a great position as he can go best available at every pick. Nice spot to be in.

Edited October 18, 2021 by deejammin'

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,705]

On 10/16/2021 at 11:45 AM, Demonstone said:

His prediction at pick 47, Jamo Ballantyne, is from my home town of Portland.

We haven't had one from there since the glory days of the 50s with Stewart Spencer and Clyde Laidlaw.

I'm thinking someone called Jamieson Ballantyne had parents who were fond of whiskey, but not particuarly good at spelling.

[rumpole 515]

I was bemused to read the commentary about Richmond selecting Mac Andrew with pick 9 because they “they need to get another forward/ruck on the list”. They already have Toby Nankervis, Ivan Soldo and Ben Miller and although they recently delisted Bigoa Nyuon, they’re committed to re-listing him as a rookie. I say “bemused” because a workmate’s son played NAB Cup with Nyuon and his is remarkably familiar in comparison with Andrew’s story.

Both are sons of South Sudanese migrants, both played with the Dandenong Stingrays, both are/were members of AFL NGA Academies (Nyuon was with St Kilda’s), both are managed by Julian Petracca of Hemisphere Management, both have strengths listed as speed, versatility, athleticism, vertical leap and have a long term upside. Both are raw and lack endurance and physical strength. 

Despite being in the Saints’ NGA, Bigoa ended up with the Tigers who took him with pick 54 in the 2019 NAB AFL Draft. He wasn’t exactly in everyone’s consideration for top 20 selection like Andrew but 2019 was a much different time for the NAB League before COVID-19. After two years in the AFL system, he’s still a long way off. 

The Tigers had Mabior Chol and let him go this month after six years. They know exactly what timeline they’re looking at and I don’t see them risking the investment of pick 9 in the draft for such a long term prospect. 

[Chelly 810]

7 hours ago, rumpole said:

I was bemused to read the commentary about Richmond selecting Mac Andrew with pick 9 because they “they need to get another forward/ruck on the list”. They already have Toby Nankervis, Ivan Soldo and Ben Miller and although they recently delisted Bigoa Nyuon, they’re committed to re-listing him as a rookie. I say “bemused” because a workmate’s son played NAB Cup with Nyuon and his is remarkably familiar in comparison with Andrew’s story.

Both are sons of South Sudanese migrants, both played with the Dandenong Stingrays, both are/were members of AFL NGA Academies (Nyuon was with St Kilda’s), both are managed by Julian Petracca of Hemisphere Management, both have strengths listed as speed, versatility, athleticism, vertical leap and have a long term upside. Both are raw and lack endurance and physical strength. 

Despite being in the Saints’ NGA, Bigoa ended up with the Tigers who took him with pick 54 in the 2019 NAB AFL Draft. He wasn’t exactly in everyone’s consideration for top 20 selection like Andrew but 2019 was a much different time for the NAB League before COVID-19. After two years in the AFL system, he’s still a long way off. 

The Tigers had Mabior Chol and let him go this month after six years. They know exactly what timeline they’re looking at and I don’t see them risking the investment of pick 9 in the draft for such a long term prospect. 

Quite right but you also missed that the Tigers have two other young developing ruckmen on their list. Samson Ryan is 206cm, 96kg from Queensland and he played one game for them during the year. He’s the bloke Hardwick suggested should be loaned out to the Suns for the rest of the year to cover their injuries. They also have a real giant in Category B rookie, Mate Colina (213cm) who is the cousin of Noah Balta and a close family friend of Soldo and ruck coach Ivan Maric. How many development ruckmen do you reckon one club needs?