GRAND FINAL: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

[Jaded No More 68,855]

29 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

I can envisage heaps of off the ball blocking and bumping of Max.  They will want to rough him up and bring him back to Stef’s level if they can.

I will lol if English tries to get physical with Max. Can you imagine.

Libba on the other hand is a dirty little scragger, and if this goes on early in the game I hope Max has a chat to the umpire to say they are trying to block my run. 

At the end of the day they are not the first team or the last team that will try to limit Gawn. It has rarely worked, because he can go forward where he can't be blocked without getting a free. Same goes for trying to stop Lever.

Sache will get a defensive job on him. First contest May runs into his back. Tactic over. 

The Lions are a big strong contested team. Dogs limped over the line thanks to some very handy umpiring. Then they came up against the weakest side I have ever seen front up to a prelim. Port did nothing. Physically tactically or otherwise. They were limp like 12 day old lettuce you forgot at the back of the fridge. Whereas Geelong couldn't keep up, but they certainly weren't soft at the contest. 

Edited September 20, 2021 by Jaded

[Adam The God 30,110]

6 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

With you 100% it feels like for the Dogs to beat us, we'd need to be off and having those sort of defensive lapses, especially with no Josh Bruce in the side, the dogs capacity to kick a winning score against our defense is going to be the entire discussion

both times we've played them we've absolutely pulled their pants down in the contest, and in finals that's obviously going to be much more important. 

I think May/Petty will be able to significantly limit any impact of Aaron Naughton, and they'll be forced to try and find 12-13 goals from other players, and it's just really hard to see where they're going to come from if we keep Weightman/Smith under control.

On the flip side, it looks like keeping our forward line under control could be a really tough ask for them, especially with either Keith out, or potentially not at his absolute best.  

Totally mate. 

As for the contested possession stuff, with Bontempelli's fitness questionable, they may have to go back to Libba at the coalface, which makes them more one dimensional and brings a tagger into the game. 

@Lucifer's Hero you don't happen to have CBAs for the Port v Bulldogs game do you? Was Libba back in there more? Without Drew starting on him in the first quarter, he was certainly controlling things from the stoppages. When Drew went to him at the end of the first, I wonder, and I didn't notice this, but I wonder if Libba then moved to half forward to throw the tag. He certainly didn't have the same influence after quarter time.

[dazzledavey36 54,201]

3 minutes ago, Jaded said:

I will lol if English tries to get physical with Max. Can you imagine.

Libba on the other hand is a dirty little scragger, and if this goes on early in the game I hope Max has a chat to the umpire to say they are trying to block my run. 

At the end of the day they are not the first team or the last team that will try to limit Gawn. It has rarely worked, because he can go forward where he can't be blocked without getting a free. Same goes for trying to stop Lever.

Sache will get a defensive job on him. First contest May runs into his back. Tactic over. 

The Lions are a big strong contested team. Dogs limped over the line thanks to some very handy umpiring. Then they came up against the weakest side I have ever seen front up to a prelim. Port did nothing. Physically tactically or otherwise. They were limp like 12 day old lettuce you forgot at the back of the fridge. Whereas Geelong couldn't keep up, but they certainly weren't soft at the contest. 

Tim English would have to be one of the softest ruckman I've seen in the AFL for a long time.

Hasn't got it in him to rough up opponents. 

[Deemania since 56 6,606]

2 hours ago, bringbackthebiff said:

If it assists, we had an extended break after the 2020 season, then we won 9 in a row at the start of this season (at least that’s what I am telling myself) 

We are skilled, and fresh, playing simulations and training at a level just a little more difficult than a pre-season with an intent to take the Cup and cruel the Doggies - not every other side in the competition. We are going to knock the Doggies off their umpiring-based perch. In a GF, there are no FREE RIDES.

[Jaded No More 68,855]

1 minute ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Tim English would have to be one of the softest ruckman I've seen in the AFL for a long time.

Hasn't got it in him to rough up opponents. 

He definitely doesn't have the physique of a ruckman. I think he is very raw, but definitely has a lot of talent, and if Dogs weren't desperate for a ruckman, I think he would spend a lot less time in the centre square and lot more time forward. 

It's why they are pushing Martin who is 35, barely going, overweight and underdone. They needed a physical body to compete with Lycett and they know they need one to at least try and half Gawn's output around the ground. 

Where the Dogs excel is winning clearances from opposition's taps. They have played with a terrible ruckman all year, and that hasn't bothered them one bit. 
They won the clearances against the Lions 47-37 but lost the hitouts 45-32. Against Port they won the clearances 41-35 but got smashed in hitouts 49-24. So it goes to show they can play well regardless of the influence of the ruckman at ball ups. 

Where Gawn becomes so important is his play around the ground. Martin will try and shadow him, but there is no way physically he can keep up with Gawn who plays close to 100% game time every week. I suspect they will send Martin into the backline when Gawn goes forward, but more importantly I suspect they will use their smalls to try and block him on the wings and down back. 

[Deemania since 56 6,606]

4 minutes ago, Jaded said:

He definitely doesn't have the physique of a ruckman. I think he is very raw, but definitely has a lot of talent, and if Dogs weren't desperate for a ruckman, I think he would spend a lot less time in the centre square and lot more time forward. 

It's why they are pushing Martin who is 35, barely going, overweight and underdone. They needed a physical body to compete with Lycett and they know they need one to at least try and half Gawn's output around the ground. 

Where the Dogs excel is winning clearances from opposition's taps. They have played with a terrible ruckman all year, and that hasn't bothered them one bit. 
They won the clearances against the Lions 47-37 but lost the hitouts 45-32. Against Port they won the clearances 41-35 but got smashed in hitouts 49-24. So it goes to show they can play well regardless of the influence of the ruckman at ball ups. 

Where Gawn becomes so important is his play around the ground. Martin will try and shadow him, but there is no way physically he can keep up with Gawn who plays close to 100% game time every week. I suspect they will send Martin into the backline when Gawn goes forward, but more importantly I suspect they will use their smalls to try and block him on the wings and down back. 

If we are prepared to go the biff, block and bust 'em, then we can batter that team of scrawnies (the Dogs) and reduce their impact. We also know how to play as a team - as the best team this year - and, I suspect, our desire is far greater, as is out new-found culture. Give 'em hell.

 

[Adam The God 30,110]

33 minutes ago, Jaded said:

I will lol if English tries to get physical with Max. Can you imagine.

Libba on the other hand is a dirty little scragger, and if this goes on early in the game I hope Max has a chat to the umpire to say they are trying to block my run. 

At the end of the day they are not the first team or the last team that will try to limit Gawn. It has rarely worked, because he can go forward where he can't be blocked without getting a free. Same goes for trying to stop Lever.

Sache will get a defensive job on him. First contest May runs into his back. Tactic over. 

The Lions are a big strong contested team. Dogs limped over the line thanks to some very handy umpiring. Then they came up against the weakest side I have ever seen front up to a prelim. Port did nothing. Physically tactically or otherwise. They were limp like 12 day old lettuce you forgot at the back of the fridge. Whereas Geelong couldn't keep up, but they certainly weren't soft at the contest. 

I wouldn't be so sure on this. I have a feeling Schache will need to play the Bruce second fiddle role to Naughton and they'll use English or even Hannan as the decoy on Lever. They'll know they have to occupy Petty, May and Lever. They won't be able to leave one free, although they may decide Petty is the lesser of three evils and allow him to zone off. 

As @Dwight Schrute says, their problem is goals. If they don't get them from midfield, they're going to need Naughton, Schache and Hannan kicking goals and if English can keep Lever out of the game and maybe even snag one himself, they might see that as a win. 

The Weightman match up will be really vital too. He did kick half their score against Essendon after all. So is that Hibberd or Rivers or even Bowey?

[jnrmac 20,053]

2 hours ago, Demon17 said:

Is this code for sore and tired.  Martin played about 60% game time, the lowest of any dogs player except the injury sub.. he's probably still stuffed from that effort.

Gee I hope Bevo selects him. 

I keep saying that Keath has done his hammy TWICE since round 19.

He won't be able to push very hard on that leg.

As for Stef, he will basically be a decoy with English playing fwd to try and stretch our defence.

Edited September 20, 2021 by jnrmac

[The Swimming Dee 1,904]

2 minutes ago, A F said:

I wouldn't be so sure on this. I have a feeling Schache will need to play the Bruce second fiddle role to Naughton and they'll use English or even Hannan as the decoy on Lever. They'll know they have to occupy Petty, May and Lever. They won't be able to leave one free, although they may decide Petty is the lesser of three evils and allow him to zone off. 

As @Dwight Schrute says, their problem is goals. If they don't get them from midfield, they're going to need Naughton, Schache and Hannan kicking goals and if English can keep Lever out of the game and maybe even snag one himself, they might see that as a win. 

The Weightman match up will be really vital too. He did kick half their score against Essendon after all. So is that Hibberd or Rivers or even Bowey?

Hibberd gets first crack at that IMO. Everytime he has been set a job this year he has done a food job. I'd like to see him bring some physical heat and really test out Weightman early.

I know it is not really our style but could we see a really hard physical approach early on the Bont. The Giants have done it successfuly in the past. I am not suggesting anything untoward but I'd like to see him know that he is in for a very hard game from early on

[Jaded No More 68,855]

Just now, A F said:

I wouldn't be so sure on this. I have a feeling Schache will need to play the Bruce second fiddle role to Naughton and they'll use English or even Hannan as the decoy on Lever. They'll know they have to occupy Petty, May and Lever. They won't be able to leave one free, although they may decide Petty is the lesser of three evils and allow him to zone off. 

As @Dwight Schrute says, their problem is goals. If they don't get them from midfield, they're going to need Naughton, Schache and Hannan kicking goals and if English can keep Lever out of the game and maybe even snag one himself, they might see that as a win. 

The Weightman match up will be really vital too. He did kick half their score against Essendon after all. So is that Hibberd or Rivers or even Bowey?

Honestly if they put English on Lever that is a win for us. The problem with trying to shut down Lever is that he has the support of May and Petty. We lost May last week and our system still stacked up down back. We are a team defence. Yes Lever is important, but if he doesn't intercept it, May will, or Petty will. Oh yeah and this fella called Gawn who goes alright in an emergency. 

I agree though that Weightman is a worry. In fact, their small players worry me far more than their talls, although I recognise that Naughton is a very very good player who can hurt you. But ground ball is definitely our defensive weakness. It is why I would want Hunt to play over Hibberd. I think Hunt is better suited to play on Weightman. I worry Hibbo doesn't have the zip to go with him to be honest. If he does get off the leash, we can put May on him and shuffle the talls around though. Also need to watch out for Weightman ducking and throwing himself around like a sad ragdoll. He loves a free. 

Rivers on Hannan for me as Hannan will push up the ground and that suits Rivers. Unless they give Hannan the task to try and shut down Salem. That's what I would want if I was a Dogs fan. Salem is far more crucial to us than Hannan is to the Dogs. Same as I want ANB to literally not let Daniel out of his sight, and if ANB gets 2 touches as a result, than so be it. 

Who plays on Bailey Smith is going to be fascinating. Do we go head to head and let him and Langdon do their thing? Does Gus take him? Harmes? 

We match up well on the Dogs around the ground and I think their backline will be at panic stations if we start winning some clean ball in the middle and BBB and Fritta get a run at the ball.

It will be a good game. I don't think either team will win by a big margin. It probably will come down to small moments, structures and who can capitalise better on turnovers and in front of goal. 

[Blind_turn 36]

Sorry if I'm breaking the thread of this conversation, but I didn't want to start a new thread and didn't know where else to put it.

But I just ran across a photo of Melbourne around the time when we were last winning premierships and I thought it put this Saturday in some context:

 

 

Edited September 20, 2021 by Blind_turn

[Redleg 40,811]

1 hour ago, Deemania since 56 said:

. In a GF, there are no FREE RIDES.

Tell that to Sydney. Dogs got more than a free ride in the 2016 GF. They were gifted a flag with several shocking decisions. Swans were furious and they let the AFL know after the game, but it was too late. I think the AFL even acknowledged the very poor umpiring.

[Its Time for Another 4,187]

1 hour ago, A F said:

I tend to agree with the line of thinking that @binman has pushed on the podcast. He said that Champion Data had that Round 19 game as being a draw, and that those who want to read into that game too much will be misled. Our win over them in Round 11 was far more convincing and IMO a greater predictor of the sort of game we're likely to see in the GF.

We were off that night in Round 19 and still got within 4 points late on. I think had we taken our chances earlier in the game, we'd have won the game. But given the loading regime the players were going through at the time, we seemed to be struggling to break out of a jog. I remember Langdon in particular, who usually looks like he's running on top of the ground, seeming like he could barely get out of a stride. He's looked back to his best since about Round 22 against Adelaide.

But on the Round 19 game, Bontempelli kicks 2 stoppage goals through poor marking and that's essentially the game. Everything went right for them, including the umpiring. I, like others, can't see us letting them get easy stoppage goals like that, nor allowing Daniel to run around without frontal pressure, they've now got no Bruce which limits their forward structure, and there also has to be a question mark over Bontempelli with that knee. Port didn't test him at all.

I think you're right though. Scoring accuracy is absolutely crucial in the modern game. We need to kick straight and take our chances, but if we bring 22-man heat, their game doesn't stand up. It's a bit like the Geelong methodical kicking model and how it breaks down under pressure, the Bulldogs' handball game has to be precise, even their kicking game (as we saw with multiple turnovers at Marvel when they tried to switch in Round 11) has to be precise. At the other end, we have the best intercepting midfield in the game and could cut them to ribbons again if they don't get it right. Unlike the Bulldogs, our game doesn't rely on perfect footy. It relies on structures and work rate. Even if the work rate is slightly down, the structures compensate for this and keep us in games.

The commentators have been big on this during the finals series and I think to a degree they're right. We don't need to finesse our possessions by foot. It's winning the contest, having a solid structure behind the ball if we do lose it, and slowly grinding opponents into the ground. 

They may beat us if we have an off game, but if we bring our best game, their game will breakdown and ours will grind them into the turf.

I agree with all of this especially about round 19 but my point is all things being equal if we'd kicked straight we would have won that game even though we were flat, they had Bruce, won frees 25 to 11 and had some very lucky breaks. We can predict and plan for  almost everything except for not kicking accurately.  

[Adam The God 30,110]

39 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Honestly if they put English on Lever that is a win for us. The problem with trying to shut down Lever is that he has the support of May and Petty. We lost May last week and our system still stacked up down back. We are a team defence. Yes Lever is important, but if he doesn't intercept it, May will, or Petty will. Oh yeah and this fella called Gawn who goes alright in an emergency. 

I agree though that Weightman is a worry. In fact, their small players worry me far more than their talls, although I recognise that Naughton is a very very good player who can hurt you. But ground ball is definitely our defensive weakness. It is why I would want Hunt to play over Hibberd. I think Hunt is better suited to play on Weightman. I worry Hibbo doesn't have the zip to go with him to be honest. If he does get off the leash, we can put May on him and shuffle the talls around though. Also need to watch out for Weightman ducking and throwing himself around like a sad ragdoll. He loves a free. 

Rivers on Hannan for me as Hannan will push up the ground and that suits Rivers. Unless they give Hannan the task to try and shut down Salem. That's what I would want if I was a Dogs fan. Salem is far more crucial to us than Hannan is to the Dogs. Same as I want ANB to literally not let Daniel out of his sight, and if ANB gets 2 touches as a result, than so be it. 

Who plays on Bailey Smith is going to be fascinating. Do we go head to head and let him and Langdon do their thing? Does Gus take him? Harmes? 

We match up well on the Dogs around the ground and I think their backline will be at panic stations if we start winning some clean ball in the middle and BBB and Fritta get a run at the ball.

It will be a good game. I don't think either team will win by a big margin. It probably will come down to small moments, structures and who can capitalise better on turnovers and in front of goal. 

I think their talls are a bit like ours. Their number one priority is bringing the ball to ground for their smalls. As Naughton and Scache did last week. Ground balls will be massive. Really hoping it's a dry night.

[binman 42,591]

23 minutes ago, Blind_turn said:

Sorry if I'm breaking the thread of this conversation, but I didn't want to start a new thread and didn't know where else to put it.

But I just ran across a photo of Melbourne around the time when we were last winning premierships and I thought it put this Saturday in some context:

 

 

Is that two UFOs landing?

[Adam The God 30,110]

45 minutes ago, The Swimming Dee said:

Hibberd gets first crack at that IMO. Everytime he has been set a job this year he has done a food job. I'd like to see him bring some physical heat and really test out Weightman early.

I know it is not really our style but could we see a really hard physical approach early on the Bont. The Giants have done it successfuly in the past. I am not suggesting anything untoward but I'd like to see him know that he is in for a very hard game from early on

Was it that successful though? They still lost that prelim doing it. I reckon we need to play our game. If we're on, we play a pretty bruising game, so that will take care of itself.

[gs77 4,052]

6 hours ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Had a dream that Steven May didnt play

Um... that's called a nightmare.

[Diamond_Jim 12,520]

45 minutes ago, Blind_turn said:

Sorry if I'm breaking the thread of this conversation, but I didn't want to start a new thread and didn't know where else to put it.

But I just ran across a photo of Melbourne around the time when we were last winning premierships and I thought it put this Saturday in some context:

 

 

Wonderful photo

Took me a while to orientate but it's the intersection of Bourke and Swanston looking up towards William Street.

My guess is 1960/61 from the cars.

I wonder if the Tivoli had become a cinema by then.(Can just be seen in the left foreground).

[Diamond_Jim 12,520]

30 minutes ago, binman said:

Is that two UFOs landing?

Nope

Moomba signs I think

[Redleg 40,811]

I think we have 2 caged bulls in our team who will be released from their cages for this game. Viney and May. I see little worry for either of them in a fear of suspension, if it means winning.

Not saying they will king hit anyone, but rather they will play for keeps. Every bump and tackle will be meaningful. 

[Ted Lasso 19,269]

2 hours ago, A F said:

I wouldn't be so sure on this. I have a feeling Schache will need to play the Bruce second fiddle role to Naughton and they'll use English or even Hannan as the decoy on Lever. They'll know they have to occupy Petty, May and Lever. They won't be able to leave one free, although they may decide Petty is the lesser of three evils and allow him to zone off. 

As @Dwight Schrute says, their problem is goals. If they don't get them from midfield, they're going to need Naughton, Schache and Hannan kicking goals and if English can keep Lever out of the game and maybe even snag one himself, they might see that as a win. 

The Weightman match up will be really vital too. He did kick half their score against Essendon after all. So is that Hibberd or Rivers or even Bowey?

He's young and i reckon whoever goes to Weightman, has to be able to make him defend, 

[loges 6,767]

3 hours ago, Jaded said:

Salem has been managed all year with his training load. Viney you'd think would be the same with his foot.

Salem missed one game all year with soreness. Literally 0% chance he isn't getting jabbed and suited up for the grand final. Same with Viney. I would assume Viney would cut his own foot off before missing a grand final, just like May would rip out his own hamstring. 

We had a big session on Saturday, so today would be like a normal post game recovery session. Also probably why they aren't bothering to push Spargo's ankle. 

Whoever doesn't do much on Wednesday is in trouble though. 

Salem seems to be getting back to his best, reckon the couple of 2 week breaks have helped his soreness.

[loges 6,767]

3 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Tim English would have to be one of the softest ruckman I've seen in the AFL for a long time.

Hasn't got it in him to rough up opponents. 

Soft as butter, that's why he's no good in the ruck, doesn't like being jumped into. He's one player I would target with some physicality.

[faultydet 7,594]

As much as you should never rejoice at an injury to anyone, how nice has it been to not hear them banging on about their bloody "3 headed monster" for the past week?

Our midfield must curtail the delivery to Naughton and Weightman, and Gawn or Jackson must be aware when English drifts forward, as he is very capable in the air also and  his height will worry our key defenders.

 

 

 

[Fork 'em 6,983]

2 hours ago, Blind_turn said:

Sorry if I'm breaking the thread of this conversation, but I didn't want to start a new thread and didn't know where else to put it.

But I just ran across a photo of Melbourne around the time when we were last winning premierships and I thought it put this Saturday in some context:

 

 

Come across one myself.
When the '56 Olympics was in town.


And this.

https://www.facebook.com/212395152128015/videos/581069859741567