GRAND FINAL: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

[Ted Lasso 19,513]

Absolutely convinced we can/will win, but incredibly nervous 

[Demon17 5,188]

4 hours ago, Dwight Schrute said:

Dogs have a really big decision to make around the ruck. English will get monstered in the middle, Martin can't go with Gawn or Jackson around the ground, are they actually going to get enough out of Martin in the side? Gawn is on a whole different planet to Lycett. 

i've been taking a good look at the Dogs recent form as well, and what i've noticed is in the past 6 weeks, the dogs are kicking very few, bread and butter goals. certainly not enough to score 100 points which they'll need to to win, they've scored 100 points twice, once against Port Adelaide who didn't show up, and had to just attack to try and make something out of the game. and once against a very tired Crows side. 

on the other hand, our scoring is comfortably the best it's been all year, and we're winning it out of the middle a lot more, so we've improved to the point a melbourne game looks a bit different but we haven't actually lost our strength 

Well summariesd I reckon. I have been looking at the Dees run of the last 6 games all for wins.

We've conceded an everagae of 8 goals a game. There is zero chance of the defence not playing their style of game.

One of the best coaches, Chris Scott, had 24 weeks to figure out how to stop May and Lever. Gross Fail. Even with May off. Its the system design that counts.

[Ted Lasso 19,513]

2 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Well summariesd I reckon. I have been looking at the Dees run of the last 6 games all for wins.

We've conceded an everagae of 8 goals a game. There is zero chance of the defence not playing their style of game.

One of the best coaches, Chris Scott, had 24 weeks to figure out how to stop May and Lever. Gross Fail. Even with May off. Its the system design that counts.

and the Western Bulldogs have relied on Weightman and Smith to kick a lot of their goals, they've been brave and it's been a super effort to make the Grand final, but i think we're cherry ripe and they're running on fumes now. 

if we're on, it's going to be extremely tough for them. 

[Its Time for Another 4,209]

Based on the 2 games during the season there's one thing that may well decide the outcome and unfortunately it's not predictable.

Scoring accuracy. 

We scored 13-9 then 9-13.  They scored 8-11 then 11-7. So they had one less scoring shot but it was a 48pt turnaround to them. 

Our forward line is functioning a lot better now than in those games and they've since lost Bruce. 

I guess deeper entries on less acute angles will be the one controllable way to fix this. Other than the players kicking better and taking their chances. I remember at one stage Champion Data showed that we had the hardest shots on goal in the Comp. Don't want to do that in the heat of a GF. 

There will be lots of other keys to this game but this one sticks out as the major point of difference in those two games. Mind you the free kicks in the second game were 25 to 11 and some of those resulted in goals. 

@binman @A F @Axis of Bob

 

[Demon17 5,188]

59 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

Is this code for sore and tired.  Martin played about 60% game time, the lowest of any dogs player except the injury sub.. he's probably still stuffed from that effort.

Gee I hope Bevo selects him. 

[Docs Demons 1,790]

3 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

and the Western Bulldogs have relied on Weightman and Smith to kick a lot of their goals, they've been brave and it's been a super effort to make the Grand final, but i think we're cherry ripe and they're running on fumes now. 

if we're on, it's going to be extremely tough for them. 

That last line is spot on Dwight. Said many a time, our best is better than all others best including Dogs. We play at our best or very close to, then we win and I believe fairly easily.

[Wells 11 5,399]

3 hours ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Had a dream that Steven May didnt play

well…I had a dream he did :-) 

[Macca 16,965]

#freekickbulldogs?

Not against Port last week ... at one stage Port led the free kick count 19-8 yet trailed by 10-12 goals

I wouldn't be concerned about the umpires and I'm sure Goodwin & his FD aren't concerned either

They will,  however,  be stressing the need to play in front at all times because the numbers say that 7 or 8 of every 10 free kicks will be awarded to the ball player

Play the percentages with skill and you win

In the 2 finals,  we've played in front with an almost manic desire and we've been rewarded

We've been switched on from the word go

Edited September 20, 2021 by Macca

[Mickey 4,684]

AFL.com reporting Spargo walking laps, May completed full session and Salem and Viney on light duties.

TMac has said Spargo will be fine.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/678777/-worst-case-scenario-he-d-have-painkillers-demon-in-no-doubt-for-gf/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Edited September 20, 2021 by Mickey

[dazzledavey36 54,889]

2 minutes ago, Mickey said:

News.com reporting Spargo walking laps, May completing full low key session and Salem on light duties.

TMac has said Spargo will be fine

Hoping Salem is just a light day due to managing his groins this year..

[TRIGON 4,783]

All the best to Dee's fans flying into WA from the non-lockdown states. I'm hearing that the WA border pass form is dauntingly comprehensive:

Edited September 20, 2021 by TRIGON

[WA Demon Boy 966]

MFC backs v WB forwards = advantage MFC

WB Backs vs MFC Forwards = advantage MFC

Midfield - Depth (WB) (however ruck = MFC) = Breakeven 

Structurally we are far better than them, in the first game we beat them quite comfortably and the second game they got the win (although I do believe weather played a part that game). I don't dismiss that lose at all but I really think we were off that game, Dogs were in good form and our mids barely got up and running. 

The biggest worry for me is their midfield hitting the scoreboard. If we can reduce Bont and Smith in particular, it will go a long way because I don't really think Naughton will kick a bag on May and Weightman will either. Hannan could bob up for 1-2 but then outside of this who else can kick their goals? Scache probably won't. 

Our forwards are far more dangerous than theirs. Our backs are more robust. Breakeven in the midfield and don't allow their mids opportunity to kick goals and we should win.  

[WA Demon Boy 966]

I also can't see Hannan and Smith having as much time and space as they have the last few weeks. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,578]

31 minutes ago, It's Time said:

Based on the 2 games during the season there's one thing that may well decide the outcome and unfortunately it's not predictable.

Scoring accuracy. 

We scored 13-9 then 9-13.  They scored 8-11 then 11-7. So they had one less scoring shot but it was a 48pt turnaround to them.

spot on

both of our finals so far probably should have been over at half time or very soon therafter but we gave the other team  a sniff.

Forecast conditions for Perth are excellent. With the game time at 5:15pm Perth time it should be around 22 degrees with a mild breeze.

Oh to have a 7 goal to 1 first quarter and then just a ten point better margin for quarters 2 and 3 is my dream leaving the fourth quarter to be watched in the glorious cloak of victory.

[Jaded No More 68,913]

25 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Hoping Salem is just a light day due to managing his groins this year..

Salem has been managed all year with his training load. Viney you'd think would be the same with his foot.

Salem missed one game all year with soreness. Literally 0% chance he isn't getting jabbed and suited up for the grand final. Same with Viney. I would assume Viney would cut his own foot off before missing a grand final, just like May would rip out his own hamstring. 

We had a big session on Saturday, so today would be like a normal post game recovery session. Also probably why they aren't bothering to push Spargo's ankle. 

Whoever doesn't do much on Wednesday is in trouble though. 

[Ted Lasso 19,513]

I listed to Tim Watson and it's hard to disagree with him RE: Jack Viney being a huge Norm Smith chance, simply because he is just built for a game like this. 

I suspect the Dogs will try to make Lever accountable on Schache as they did Alir, i think this is a mistake because while Alir is an elite player, Levers footy smarts and game sense is next level, and i can't see him being exposed by this. 

I also think their tactics won't work because Bruce isn't playing, and the resting ruck will be a luxury because they'll need English/Martin to help stop our forwards with Brown/McDonald/Fritsch/ Gawn/Jackson

[WA Demon Boy 966]

1 minute ago, Jaded said:

Salem has been managed all year with his training load. Viney you'd think would be the same with his foot.

Salem missed one game all year with soreness. Literally 0% chance he isn't getting jabbed and suited up for the grand final. Same with Viney. I would assume Viney would cut his own foot off before missing a grand final, just like May would rip out his own hamstring. 

We had a big session on Saturday, so today would be like a normal post game recovery session. Also probably why they aren't bothering to push Spargo's ankle. 

Whoever doesn't do much on Wednesday is in trouble though. 

There won't be any changes on our end. 

Wonder how Dogs will line up though and who misses for them. 

Gawn and BB have to run Keath and Martin to the ground. 

[WA Demon Boy 966]

Another one who needs to put in a massive game for us is Tmac. 

He should be able to expose his matchup (who I think will be Gardner)

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

I can envisage heaps of off the ball blocking and bumping of Max.  They will want to rough him up and bring him back to Stef’s level if they can.

[sue 9,102]

8 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

I can envisage heaps of off the ball blocking and bumping of Max.  They will want to rough him up and bring him back to Stef’s level if they can.

Libba has already publically said they will try to block is run off the pack.  Isn't that illegal?

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

Just now, sue said:

Libba has already publically said they will try to block is run off the pack.  Isn't that illegal?

Yes, but we need to alert the umpires so they call it, and don't let it go. Other teams have tried this in the past, and Max seems pretty tough and resilient.

[Ted Lasso 19,513]

I reckon there is a huge chance Alex Keith will miss, Dogs will keep us guessing, but i suspect in the end they won't take a risk on either Hamstring player

[Adam The God 30,239]

1 hour ago, It's Time said:

Based on the 2 games during the season there's one thing that may well decide the outcome and unfortunately it's not predictable.

Scoring accuracy. 

We scored 13-9 then 9-13.  They scored 8-11 then 11-7. So they had one less scoring shot but it was a 48pt turnaround to them. 

Our forward line is functioning a lot better now than in those games and they've since lost Bruce. 

I guess deeper entries on less acute angles will be the one controllable way to fix this. Other than the players kicking better and taking their chances. I remember at one stage Champion Data showed that we had the hardest shots on goal in the Comp. Don't want to do that in the heat of a GF. 

There will be lots of other keys to this game but this one sticks out as the major point of difference in those two games. Mind you the free kicks in the second game were 25 to 11 and some of those resulted in goals. 

@binman @A F @Axis of Bob

 

I tend to agree with the line of thinking that @binman has pushed on the podcast. He said that Champion Data had that Round 19 game as being a draw, and that those who want to read into that game too much will be misled. Our win over them in Round 11 was far more convincing and IMO a greater predictor of the sort of game we're likely to see in the GF.

We were off that night in Round 19 and still got within 4 points late on. I think had we taken our chances earlier in the game, we'd have won the game. But given the loading regime the players were going through at the time, we seemed to be struggling to break out of a jog. I remember Langdon in particular, who usually looks like he's running on top of the ground, seeming like he could barely get out of a stride. He's looked back to his best since about Round 22 against Adelaide.

But on the Round 19 game, Bontempelli kicks 2 stoppage goals through poor marking and that's essentially the game. Everything went right for them, including the umpiring. I, like others, can't see us letting them get easy stoppage goals like that, nor allowing Daniel to run around without frontal pressure, they've now got no Bruce which limits their forward structure, and there also has to be a question mark over Bontempelli with that knee. Port didn't test him at all.

I think you're right though. Scoring accuracy is absolutely crucial in the modern game. We need to kick straight and take our chances, but if we bring 22-man heat, their game doesn't stand up. It's a bit like the Geelong methodical kicking model and how it breaks down under pressure, the Bulldogs' handball game has to be precise, even their kicking game (as we saw with multiple turnovers at Marvel when they tried to switch in Round 11) has to be precise. At the other end, we have the best intercepting midfield in the game and could cut them to ribbons again if they don't get it right. Unlike the Bulldogs, our game doesn't rely on perfect footy. It relies on structures and work rate. Even if the work rate is slightly down, the structures compensate for this and keep us in games.

The commentators have been big on this during the finals series and I think to a degree they're right. We don't need to finesse our possessions by foot. It's winning the contest, having a solid structure behind the ball if we do lose it, and slowly grinding opponents into the ground. 

They may beat us if we have an off game, but if we bring our best game, their game will breakdown and ours will grind them into the turf.

Edited September 20, 2021 by A F

[Ted Lasso 19,513]

3 minutes ago, A F said:

I tend to agree with the line of thinking that @binman has pushed on the podcast. He said that Champion Data had that Round 19 game as being a draw, and that those who want to read into that game too much will be misled. Our win over them in Round 11 was far more convincing and IMO a greater predictor of the sort of game we're likely to see in the GF.

We were off that night in Round 19 and still got within 4 points late on. I think had we taken our chances earlier in the game, we'd have won the game. But given the loading regime the players were going through at the time, we seemed to be struggling to break out of a jog. I remember Langdon in particular, who usually looks like he's running on top of the ground, seeming like he could barely get out of a stride. He's looked back to his best since about Round 22 against Adelaide.

But on the Round 19 game, Bontempelli kicks 2 stoppage goals through poor marking and that's essentially the game. Everything went right for them, including the umpiring. I, like others, can't see us letting them get easy stoppage goals like that, nor allowing Daniel to run around without frontal pressure, they've now got no Bruce which limits their forward structure, and there also has to be a question mark over Bontempelli with that knee. Port didn't test him at all.

I think you're right though. Scoring accuracy is absolutely crucial in the modern game. We need to kick straight and take our chances, but if we bring 22-man heat, their game doesn't stand up. It's a bit like the Geelong methodical kicking model and how it breaks down under pressure, their handball game has to be precise, even their kicking game (as we saw with multiple turnovers at Marvel when they tried to switch in Round 11) has to be precise. We have the best intercepting midfield in the game and could cut them to ribbons again if they don't get it right. Whereas, our game doesn't rely on perfect footy. It relies on structures and work rate. Even if the work rate is slightly down, the structures compensate for this and keep us in games.

The commentators have been big on this during the finals series and I think to a degree they're right. We don't need to finesse our possessions by foot. It's winning the contest, having a solid structure behind the ball if we do lose it, and slowly grinding opponents into the ground.

They may beat us if we have an off game, but if we bring our best game, their game will breakdown and ours will grind them into the turf.

With you 100% it feels like for the Dogs to beat us, we'd need to be off and having those sort of defensive lapses, especially with no Josh Bruce in the side, the dogs capacity to kick a winning score against our defense is going to be the entire discussion

both times we've played them we've absolutely pulled their pants down in the contest, and in finals that's obviously going to be much more important. 

I think May/Petty will be able to significantly limit any impact of Aaron Naughton, and they'll be forced to try and find 12-13 goals from other players, and it's just really hard to see where they're going to come from if we keep Weightman/Smith under control.

On the flip side, it looks like keeping our forward line under control could be a really tough ask for them, especially with either Keith out, or potentially not at his absolute best.  

[adonski 12,109]

Chuck Gawn in the goal square it'll have them in disarray