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CHANGES: QF vs Brisbane


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26 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I see a few are shocked at this. Hopefully this explains better.

I'm a HUGE fan of Bowey and think we've got a 200 gamer on our hands. 

My reasoning for this is that while Bowey hasn't put a foot wrong, I genuinely can't find a decent match up for him. I worry about playing a small 4th gamer down back in a game where the pressure significantly goes through the roof.  Right now we don't have a lockdown small defender and Hibberd plays that role fine.

Brisbane's small forwards are Lincoln McCarthy, Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey (kicked 4 last time). I'd have Salem to go with McCarthy, Rivers with Bailey which leaves Hibberd to take on Cameron who did a good job last time. Unfortunately I just think any of those guys could easily expose Bowey on the big stage.

Joel Smith will stay in. I think the club love his flexibility and he could also easily take one of those smalls or a tall as well.

Could you rotate Bowey through the wing Dazzle? i really love his composure and think that could be important in a big final, 

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23 hours ago, deanox said:

I wonder if we'll go purely "back our system head to head" or if we'll deploy a some targetted tactics like we did against the dogs in R11.

Most of the year we seem to have just played our system and let other teams do their thing.

Feels like there is a weight of evidence that our system works... and aside from few minor tweaks... our system stands up well.

I've said it once and I'll say it again... we've played finals football since Round 1. It's sustainable attritional football and we are built for finals. 

Even in our 7 goal comeback - it wasn't chaotic as some people spoke about, it was a considered approach with a tweak around the clearances... and to be perfectly honest, that 15 minutes of football where Geelong got 8 goals, was marked by weird inconsistent umpiring, or many non calls.

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7 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

Could you rotate Bowey through the wing Dazzle? i really love his composure and think that could be important in a big final, 

I think you're playing with fire when you make unexpected position moves, especiallyin big finals. Bowey has been trained and played half back all year and I highly doubt they'll make drastic moves this late.

Though I do think this is something that needs to be in serious consideration for next year

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42 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I see a few are shocked at this. Hopefully this explains better.

I'm a HUGE fan of Bowey and think we've got a 200 gamer on our hands. 

My reasoning for this is that while Bowey hasn't put a foot wrong, I genuinely can't find a decent match up for him. I worry about playing a small 4th gamer down back in a game where the pressure significantly goes through the roof.  Right now we don't have a lockdown small defender and Hibberd plays that role fine.

Brisbane's small forwards are Lincoln McCarthy, Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey (kicked 4 last time). I'd have Salem to go with McCarthy, Rivers with Bailey which leaves Hibberd to take on Cameron who did a good job last time. Unfortunately I just think any of those guys could easily expose Bowey on the big stage.

Joel Smith will stay in. I think the club love his flexibility and he could also easily take one of those smalls or a tall as well.

Pretty solid reasoning tbh.

Will be interesting to see what they decide.

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4 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Pretty solid reasoning tbh.

Will be interesting to see what they decide.

Look I think he'll honestly play, but I think the coaching staff would be weighing up a lot of scenarios, especially if Hibberd is there waiting and has done the job also.

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2 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I'd drop Bowey for Hibberd. 

 

53 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I see a few are shocked at this. Hopefully this explains better.

I'm a HUGE fan of Bowey and think we've got a 200 gamer on our hands. 

My reasoning for this is that while Bowey hasn't put a foot wrong, I genuinely can't find a decent match up for him. I worry about playing a small 4th gamer down back in a game where the pressure significantly goes through the roof.  Right now we don't have a lockdown small defender and Hibberd plays that role fine.

Brisbane's small forwards are Lincoln McCarthy, Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey (kicked 4 last time). I'd have Salem to go with McCarthy, Rivers with Bailey which leaves Hibberd to take on Cameron who did a good job last time. Unfortunately I just think any of those guys could easily expose Bowey on the big stage.

Joel Smith will stay in. I think the club love his flexibility and he could also easily take one of those smalls or a tall as well.

I think it would be Smith for Hibberd...Goody did mention Hibberd doing the job on Cameron last time.

As for the Bowey match up...

The other side of this is can they find a match up for him.

Sometimes we have to back our system v theirs.

Clean ball use going forward will expose their defence.

Having another good distributor off HB decreases the reliance on Salem.

Salem's form has been on the improve again since Bowey has been in the team.

Maybe a coincidence and could just be a return to fitness, getting rid of a few niggles.

Not saying I'm right and of course you could be on the money.

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13 hours ago, 58er said:

Can't drop  a four game in a row good player on a ridiculous hunch !!! 
Hunt is not ready yet and we don't need to risk him as if we win he has 2 full weeks or at least one to get fit.
 

Very emotional 58er.

I'm very happy with Bowey and if we go with him then no worries, he deserves his chance and the match committee are backing him in. But Lions are the best scoring team in the comp. If we get pushed back and are forced to defend more I'm not sure Bowey is as good one on one as Hibberd. Close out marked him on the weekend. Hawkins gave him a gentle push and sent him flying. He is a first year player having played 4 games and shows a great deal of promise but this is a final and the Lions are a ruthless team. How do you think he'll go if they send Robinson to him on Saturday? As an addition and an alternative to Salem in clearing the ball from the backline he looks terrific. If we get the game on our terms he should play well, if we don't I'm not sure he adds much. So it wasn't a ridiculous hunch thanks.

And why I was asking the question about Hunt is I wasn't sure where he was in his rehab. He may have been close last week and they gave him an extra week. I didn't know.  

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6 minutes ago, deespicable me said:

Very emotional 58er.

I'm very happy with Bowey and if we go with him then no worries, he deserves his chance and the match committee are backing him in. But Lions are the best scoring team in the comp. If we get pushed back and are forced to defend more I'm not sure Bowey is as good one on one as Hibberd. Close out marked him on the weekend. Hawkins gave him a gentle push and sent him flying. He is a first year player having played 4 games and shows a great deal of promise but this is a final and the Lions are a ruthless team. How do you think he'll go if they send Robinson to him on Saturday? As an addition and an alternative to Salem in clearing the ball from the backline he looks terrific. If we get the game on our terms he should play well, if we don't I'm not sure he adds much. So it wasn't a ridiculous hunch thanks.

And why I was asking the question about Hunt is I wasn't sure where he was in his rehab. He may have been close last week and they gave him an extra week. I didn't know.  

Exactly this.

Thanks for summarising this perfectly. 

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3 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Statistically, we're favoured if there is also lightning. Only team this year with a 100% win rate for games including stoppages for lightning.

Though we did very poorly after the lightning 

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The mail I have is that there will be no change which is in keeping with the overriding finals philosophy that you don't change your finals line-up, unless you lose or have a star to recall.

Our only missing player is Jayden Hunt, but whether or not he's regarded as a star is the question. Certainly if he's fit he plays and most of us get that Joel Smith or Bowey or even Rivers would miss, but it's a tricky decision especially in light of last week. 

What I found extraordinary, and I'm surprised most of you aren't noting it already, was the big call last week to play Joel Smith in preference to Hibbo and to change what has been a stable back seven on the eve of the finals.

Just about every Demonlander has been hammering Joel since 2017 - claiming he didn't have the nous to play at this level etc.

Goody's concerns about him have also been noted - he was after all only offered a one-year deal. Injuries have cost him a chance for much of his career and meant he missed the start of our highly successful campaign this year. He apparently has been training well, but to wait until round 22 to play him shows Goody's reluctance and reticence of his abilities and to then keep him for the clash against Geelong when May was back is huge. It shows two more things. 1) Smith has incredible potential as a quick negater who can play on tall and small, even though Goody and us DLers have some reluctance about him; 2) Hibbo is no longer rated so highly by Goody.

The Hibbo thing comes as a bit of a shock to me especially as his left-foot skills provide a lovely balance for our backline and he's still tough and courageous even if he's slowing a little with age, but we all have commented for a long time that Melky and Hibbo are Goody's pets being part of his Essendon evolution.

It's hard to comprehend but what may happen now is that our four most senior players on our list - Jones, Jetta, Hibberd and Melky - are all overlooked for finals.

Extraordinary. Time will tell if it is a good gamble, but nonetheless it is a shock to me and I think most of you and I imagine, in turn, some of the players. But if Smith and Sparrow play well against Brisbane, that misgiving will soon be overridden by the wisdom of Goody's selections - which after all has been the case pretty much all season.

We are not alone in our election revamps however. Essendon has got all cagey on Tipi leading into the finals; the Dogs have chopped and changed forward structures all year and have gone off English in an amazing way; the Cats were back to blaming Stanley for everything after losing to the league No.1 ruckman after halftime; the Swans have mysteriously been playing hardball with early-season star Warner; Power axed SPP last week and the Lions have to decide if they will rejig their back seven to include Adams, Andrews and Gardiner plus upset someone to get Robinson back in.

So all side do funny things around finals - just ask John Northey about his decisions before the 1988 Grand Final. 

If Hunt is fit, then you can easily make a case for Bowey (too young), Smith (too inconsistent and injury-prone), but I reckon one of my favourites Rivers could also be a possible out. That's finals for you. 

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2 hours ago, rjay said:

 

I think it would be Smith for Hibberd...Goody did mention Hibberd doing the job on Cameron last time.

As for the Bowey match up...

The other side of this is can they find a match up for him.

Sometimes we have to back our system v theirs.

Clean ball use going forward will expose their defence.

Having another good distributor off HB decreases the reliance on Salem.

Salem's form has been on the improve again since Bowey has been in the team.

Maybe a coincidence and could just be a return to fitness, getting rid of a few niggles.

Not saying I'm right and of course you could be on the money.

I see the logic of Hibberd in for Smith, both in terms of hibberd's experience and the fact he is way, way better one on one than Smith. But i think they will keep Smith in.

Against the cats, at various times Smith took Rohan, Cameron and even Dangerfield. May was free to lock onto Hawkins (who he struggled a bit against in the first half it must be said) and Petty took the third tall.

So i think Smith gives them some real flexibility to cover one of the Lions talls, meaning Lever does not have to.

That said i had in my mind that the Lions had replaced Hipwood with another tall, to join Daniher and McStay and make three talls. But now that i think about it i'm not sure they have.

Edited by binman
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24 minutes ago, Deespicable said:

Injuries have cost him a chance for much of his career and meant he missed the start of our highly successful campaign this year. He apparently has been training well, but to wait until round 22 to play him shows Goody's reluctance and reticence of his abilities

Smith has been injured for the majority of this year though, so not sure that 'shows Goody's reluctance', especially given he was brought into the team not that long after he was available again after his knee injury.

From memory, he started the year injured, then he only played a couple games in April before getting injured again and didn't return to any kind of footy until July. Given how few VFL games there's been in that time, I would argue the fact he's back into the AFL lineup after only a couple of games back from injury implies the opposite of 'reluctance'.

 

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3 hours ago, rjay said:

As for the Bowey match up...

Having another good distributor off HB decreases the reliance on Salem.

Salem's form has been on the improve again since Bowey has been in the team.

 

This is my take too.

Creates real dilemma for the opposition i think. When we played the Lions they basically tagged Salem and Lever.

Which makes sense given their importance, particularly in terms of how we transition the ball from defence and create scoring opportunities form the back half.

But lets say they do that this week. Bowey gives us the option to play through him instead. Like Salem he is a brilliant kick, has good spatial awareness so doesn't get pinged often and probably has more toe than Salem. And a defensive forward on Salem is not a great offensive threat. So another win for us.

Same goes for Lever. The Lions tagged him too, and that was pretty effective, in the first half at least. But again it is another forward looking to defend first, score second. So another win for us. 

And in Lever's case we had Petty to take intercept marks. And this week we will likely have Smith too.  So sure negate lever, but what about petty, Smith and May?

Clever selections i reckon. 

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2 minutes ago, binman said:

This is my take too.

Creates real dilemma for the opposition i think. When we played the Lions they basically tagged Salem and Lever.

Which makes sense given their importance, particularly in terms of how we transition the ball from defence and create scoring opportunities form the back half.

But lets say they do that this week. Bowey gives us the option to play through him instead. Like Salem he is a brilliant kick, has good spatial awareness so doesn't get pinged often and probably has more toe than Salem. And a defensive forward on Salem is not a great offensive threat. So another win for us.

Same goes for Lever. The Lions tagged him too, and that was pretty effective, in the first half at least. But again it is another forward looking to defend first, score second. So another win for us. 

And in Lever's case we had Petty to take intercept marks. And this week we will likely have Smith too.  So sure negate lever, but what about petty, Smith and May?

Clever selections i reckon. 

I'm not having a go at Smith here, but couldn't you equally argue that Hunt (if fit) or Hibberd would provide the same value as Smith when it comes to taking intercept marks? 

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2 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I'm not having a go at Smith here, but couldn't you equally argue that Hunt (if fit) or Hibberd would provide the same value as Smith when it comes to taking intercept marks? 

No, i don't think so.

Hunt has taken SFA intercept marks this season, which is ok as it is not really his go.

And Hibberd might take some in one on one situations where he out marks his direct opponent, but is pretty slow, so struggles to zone off and cover ground to the marking contest, and has no leap so is not really an intercept marking threat in the way Petty and even Smith is.

And both are way shorter than Smith, so that doesn't help the intercept marking cause - or impacting aerial contests for that matter

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I don't think the difference between Rivers, Hunt, Smith, Bowey and Hibberd is much at all. All five players have their strengths and weaknesses. Rivers and Hunt are obviously in the box seat given they have played most of the year.

Bowey has been excellent so far against lesser teams and was ok on the weekend. He struggles a bit in the air and his lack of strength is a concern.

Smith is a superior athlete but not as skilled or as good a decision maker.

Hibberd's form has turned down a bit but he still has the strength you want in a final. Pig has played some great games this year, blanketing Martin (before injury), Greene (who kicked 3 but had very little possession) and Stringer (after quarter time).

We have good depth in this area.

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1 hour ago, Lord Nev said:

Inside word? Guess? Gut feel after the press conference?

Sorry no inside knowledge, just the language around him seems pretty positive. Certainly wouldn't surprise me if they name him and give him until the last minute to decide. If not this week definitely in a fortnights time.

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8 minutes ago, binman said:

No, i don't think so.

Hunt has taken SFA intercept marks this season, which is ok as it is not really his go.

And Hibberd might take some in one on one situations where he out marks his direct opponent, but is pretty slow, so struggles to zone off and cover ground to the marking contest, and has no leap so is not really an intercept marking threat in the way Petty and even Smith is.

And both are way shorter than Smith, so that doesn't help the intercept marking cause - or impacting aerial contests for that matter

I agree that Smith is a better interceptor than Hunt/Pig (although mostly due to leap rather than height) but there is a potential problem with having too many players being able to take intercept marks if they fly against each other.

I like Smith also but the chemistry between him and the other key defenders and Gawn is the main concern.

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4 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I'm not sure about any of the arguments which match our defenders against specific forwards. We play a seven man defence. Lever and May generally play nearly 100% game time, but the others regularly rotate each playing between approx 75%-90% on the ground. I suspect Brisbane's forwards also interchange regularly. As a consequence, the idea that one player will match up specifically on another is hard to execute. I fully expect to see all of the smaller defenders, whoever plays, mixing and matching with the smaller Brisbane forwards.   

For what it's worth, if Hunt is fit, I would choose him over Smith. I might also be tempted to play Hibberd ahead of Smith should Hunt be unavailable. But I would definitely be playing Bowey (plus Salem, Petty, Rivers, Lever and May.)

I understand what you are saying Its clear last week that we went with a plan for May on Hawkins, Petty on Cameron and Smith on Rohan.

Against West Coast Melksham came in to  play on McGovern

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Statistically, we're favoured if there is also lightning. Only team this year with a 100% win rate for games including stoppages for lightning.

My take from that game is that we were a pretty average lightning team, but lightning was West Coast’s new form of meth. 

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2 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

I agree that Smith is a better interceptor than Hunt/Pig (although mostly due to leap rather than height) but there is a potential problem with having too many players being able to take intercept marks if they fly against each other.

I like Smith also but the chemistry between him and the other key defenders and Gawn is the main concern.

Good points.

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21 hours ago, Dwight Schrute said:

Could you rotate Bowey through the wing Dazzle? i really love his composure and think that could be important in a big final, 

He could do that, quite well. At present, he reminds me so much of Frank Davis (former captain/back pocket/HBFlanker) that it is difficult to see his backline characteristics used elsewhere onfield; this does not mean that one would expect him not to aggregate further skills and aptitudes across the ground. I bet, for example, he'd be a neat and reliable shot for goal, a damaging half forward flanker, a knockout midfielder - all likely in his footballing future. Great pick-up for us.

 

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