TEAMS: Rd 23 vs Geelong

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,644]

14 hours ago, Demons11 said:

- Hibbo and Melksham were average last week.  
- Salem, Bowey and Rivers provide enough pace in the backline

-  Smith had a great 1st half and deserves to retain his spot. 
 

The reasons behind Smith's second half need to be understood. He had zero possessions (although that's not the sole measure of a defender's worth). Whether it was cramping, the collission with Hibberd, or something else, it was two different Smiths out there last week.  

14 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

I would guess that Jordon is being rested given the lack of a week off. Might be a similar deal with Hibberd and Smith. On the one hand, Hibberd is old enough to benefit from a week off as well as mature enough to not lose form while away. On the other hand, after so much time out of the game Smith needs to be tested and run in if he is going to be any part of our finals effort.

 

I agree with this. Not only is Smith being given a second chance, this week he'll have a different role. Last week it was as a key defender; this week it will be as one of the 4 non-key position defenders. This should enable the Match Committee to see how he performs in a different role. I've not been a Smith fan in the past, but I do understand why he's been given a second week to prove he belongs. 

[WalkingCivilWar 39,259]

12 minutes ago, radar said:

Agree - who cares

AA, minor premiers, Rising Star, Brownlow, Coleman - SFA

Max holding the Cup only thing I wanna see

I daresay the players would beg to differ. 

[Lord Nev 13,512]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Fair points about the heat maps.

And smith's does show he played deep and in mays role. At least in the first half.

However heat maps can be deceptive.

For one thing, they only show where a player got their possessions, not where they run to. GPS numbers would give a better idea of how much running a players does. 

Smith only had 9 possessions in the crows game, almost all in the first half and many of them when he was manning Himmelburg.

Once Himmelburg went off Smith was released and played higher up the ground, albeit got few possessions (so not evident on the heat map)

In the gc game hunt had 19 possessions. So his heat map demonstrates how he gets up the ground.

I'm not sure why you say Smith has not played the hunt role in the vfl. If you have kayo, have a look at the last vfl game.

Against Werribee Smith had 19 possessions. And if there was a heat map available it would look very much the same as the hunts one in the gc game.

But we will soon see. 

Dazzler has made the suggestion he might play on Cameron, which makes sense. He has the pace to go with him and Cameron gets up the ground a lot.

So Smith can mark Cameron AND provide overlap run and carry and push up the ground. And have the pace to get back into defence.

Sure heat maps only show possession, but you're going to get possessions where you're spending most of your time so they're still fairly indicative of where a player is positioned. It's pretty clear Smith came in for May and played his role, I honestly don't understand how you can argue that. If Smith had been playing Hunt's role as you suggest then his heat map would at least be similar given he would have had more possessions in that role.

OUT: Hunt, May IN: Hibberd, Smith

Come on mate, doesn't get simpler than that.

I've watched all the VFL games. He definitely played a little higher up the ground at times, but he wasn't running the lines like Hunt does. Even in his higher possession games I don't remember him often getting past the middle. It's more a Lever role he plays at VFL level IMO.

True, he may play on Cameron, will be interesting to see, but 2020 GWS is a different team and forward lineup to Geelong 2021. I'd be pretty worried having either Petty or Lever on Rohan tbh.

I hope we're not relying on Smith, who is not a great user and only played 1 game, to provide the overlap run and carry and leave Cameron open. We have plenty of players to provide that without leaving a dangerous tall forward open for the rebound.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Lord Nev

[Colm 1,928]

I agree with others that Jordon is being tested rather than dropped and will come in again next week. 
Does that then mean that Sparrow and Viney are fighting for the one spot?! Sparrows form has maybe dipped over past few weeks but Jack was also playing very poorly before he stupidly got himself rubbed out for 2 weeks. Also I don’t think Jack normally plays well first game back from injury( may be different for a suspension). 
I’d love to see a fit and firing Viney tear it up during finals but if Sparrow has a better game than him tmw it will be interesting to see who starts next week. 

[binman 41,948]

3 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

It's pretty clear Smith came in for May and played his role, I honestly don't understand how you can argue that.

OUT: Hunt, May IN: Hibberd, Smith

Come on mate, doesn't get simpler than that.

I'm not. At least not now.

As i noted in the post you quoted, the heat map you put up convinced me he played may's role, which is why i said smith's map 'does show he played deep and in mays role. At least in the first half' 

There is so no data on the heat map where Smith ran in the second half as he didn't get a possession

[Lord Nev 13,512]

Just now, binman said:

I'm not. At least not now.

As i noted in the post you quoted, the heat map you put up convinced me he played may's role, which is why i said smith's map 'does show he played deep and in mays role. At least in the first half' 

There is so no data on the heat map where Smith ran in the second half as he didn't get a possession

If he didn't get a possession in the second half, it could be a safe bet then that he wasn't playing as a run and carry player like Hunt... ;)

[picket fence 16,657]

33 minutes ago, drdrake said:

I think this forum shows why Smith was picked, he has the ability to play on small/mid size forwards as well as big forwards.  I think he will start on Cameron.

We don't really get much stronger than this side.

Jones ???

[FireInTheBennelly 4,060]

1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

So many factors to consider. Was it for form or fitness reasons? Like for like replacement or bringing in a specific roleplayer? Are they still being retained as a depth option?

Deckchairs on the Titanic if you ask me

[FritschyBusiness 1,463]

I thought this year had cured my MFCSS, I really did. I haven't had symptoms since we kept delivering wins. 

Now over the last two weeks my symptoms have come back and I've found the source its - In: Joel Smith

[adonski 10,814]

2 minutes ago, FritschyBusiness said:

I thought this year had cured my MFCSS, I really did. I haven't had symptoms since we kept delivering wins. 

Now over the last two weeks my symptoms have come back and I've found the source its - In: Joel Smith

On the brightside, Hibbo will be straight back in if Smith has a shocker you'd suspect, so playing a top 4 side last game of the home and away season the perfect finals audition. 

[The heart beats true 17,786]

The more I think about the Smith in the more confident I am that this is Goodwin testing the the idea that clubs will go tall against us to counter out intercept marking. We at least have a plan for that, and Geelong is the most likely team to want to try this theory - as their best forward line is tall.

A lot to learn from this weekends game.

[binman 41,948]

47 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

If he didn't get a possession in the second half, it could be a safe bet then that he wasn't playing as a run and carry player like Hunt... ;)

With no possessions, not much carry that's for sure.

But he might still have been providing the run Hunt provides.

Just like Gus still played as a winger running up and down the wing in the first half despite getting only two possessions. I'm guessing his first half heat map suggested he stayed in one spot for the first half.

I feel the need for some AFL Stats pro vison! Maybe Smith had some second half up the ground involvements that might bolster my case!

[Lord Nev 13,512]

19 minutes ago, binman said:

With no possessions, not much carry that's for sure.

But he might still have been providing the run Hunt provides.

Just like Gus still played as a winger running up and down the wing in the first half despite getting only two possessions. I'm guessing his first half heat map suggested he stayed in one spot for the first half.

I feel the need for some AFL Stats pro vison! Maybe Smith had some second half up the ground involvements that might bolster my case!

He didn't have any inside 50s, Hunt averages nearly 3 a game. Not the most in-depth stat, but hard to find those real in-depth ones that we need. Someone should email the club for his vision! haha

[D4Life 2,405]

10 minutes ago, binman said:

With no possessions, not much carry that's for sure.

But he might still have been providing the run Hunt provides.

Just like Gus still played as a winger running up and down the wing in the first half despite getting only two possessions. I'm guessing his first half heat map suggested he stayed in one spot for the first half.

I feel the need for some AFL Stats pro vison! Maybe Smith had some second half up the ground involvements that might bolster my case!

You obviously watch a lot of replays, read a lot articles, and do significant research! Your input to Demonland and the podcast provides some great insights !

Reflecting on last week and the team picked, I felt Rivers went flat out like Hunt at least once possibly twice and can play that role. Smith to Cameron wouldn’t surprise as he has done it previously with some success, and has great closing speed. Petty to Rohan, May to Hawkins and Lever to roam, could work well, with Salem, Bowey & Rivers to mop up!

I was surprised Sparrow was picked ahead of Jordan, as he had a few delivery howlers and also against Suns! Perhaps Jordan being rested as his form has tapered off!

Hibberd being dropped surprised me, as he seems to be a good fit for the Dusty, Stringer & Dangerfield types. His form has dropped off, and people have noted his falling to the ground in contests as happened with Lewis. If I was Hibberd would do some martial arts training this summer, to work on his balance and reflex speed.

Still Demons in a great position win or lose, as while preferring to win this weekend, we are top 4 lock and if Dogs win, won’t have to play a true “away” final.

Go Demons, can’t wait for finals to start!

 

[Demons11 6,706]

1 hour ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

I daresay the players would beg to differ. 

You think the players are after individual accolades over a premiership? 

[binman 41,948]

8 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

 Someone should email the club for his vision! haha

https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Watch/CD_I1003546/CD_M20210142207

 

[FritschyBusiness 1,463]

37 minutes ago, adonski said:

On the brightside, Hibbo will be straight back in if Smith has a shocker you'd suspect, so playing a top 4 side last game of the home and away season the perfect finals audition. 

I find it interesting that Goodwin preaches continuity and uses the least amount of players all year.
Yet now picks Smith over Hibberd after only one game where he came in for someone saw who is now back in the side.
Joel was decent on the weekend, but Adelaide are not Geelong.
Auditions in round 22 and 23 seem very un-goodwin like and thats what has me worried.
I'd rather see Joel Smith in the side round 1 2022.

[adonski 10,814]

2 minutes ago, FritschyBusiness said:

I find it interesting that Goodwin preaches continuity and uses the least amount of players all year.
Yet now picks Smith over Hibberd after only one game where he came in for someone saw who is now back in the side.
Joel was decent on the weekend, but Adelaide are not Geelong.
Auditions in round 22 and 23 seem very un-goodwin like and thats what has me worried.
I'd rather see Joel Smith in the side round 1 2022.

I agree but Hibbo looked 9/10th's cooked against the Crow's. Fell down at every opportunity, may have felt their hand was forced. 

[Cheesy D. Pun 1,762]

13 hours ago, A F said:

I love JJ, but he's been nowhere since being moved onto the wing in that Brisbans game. If you look at his tackle numbers between rounds 1-13, he was top 10 in the competition (despite registering a tackle when playing wing). He's struggled to make an impact with his tackling or spread since.

Sparrow's tackle numbers last week were akin to Jordon's earlier in the year. I'd say that's why he's been kept in ahead of JJ. If Sparrow fails to match his tackle pressure of last week he'll be replaced by JJ. I think the MC like that really defensive role ages that can play off half back or half forward and add to the mid rotation.

Spot on.

[NeveroddoreveN 1,034]

14 minutes ago, FritschyBusiness said:

I find it interesting that Goodwin preaches continuity and uses the least amount of players all year.
Yet now picks Smith over Hibberd after only one game where he came in for someone saw who is now back in the side.
Joel was decent on the weekend, but Adelaide are not Geelong.
Auditions in round 22 and 23 seem very un-goodwin like and thats what has me worried.
I'd rather see Joel Smith in the side round 1 2022.

Still have nightmares about him getting selected and Fritsch dropped for the prelim against West Coast.

Personally i don't think we have exposed enough players to AFL level this year.  What do guys like Chandler/Bedford/Lockhart/Bowey/Smith actually have to do to get a shot?

If we get injuries during finals we will effectively have no exposed depth.

We have had players in and out of form all year.  Find it befuddling we have not risked , even small, like for like changes where we would lose very little. 

It is fine to play someone like VDB/Jones but not risk playing our more talented young guys?   I don't get it!!

[FritschyBusiness 1,463]

Just now, NeveroddoreveN said:

Still have nightmares about him getting selected and Fritsch dropped for the prelim against West Coast.

 

Me too, it upset the chemistry in the side. Its like having Frost back 

[Lord Nev 13,512]

32 minutes ago, binman said:

https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Watch/CD_I1003546/CD_M20210142207

 

Nice, thanks mate.

Noticed on a couple of those possessions he either stopped once he got to defensive 50 or ran back inside 50 after he got rid of it.

Definitely not run and carry in the first half at least. No 2nd half vision unfortunately given he didn't touch it.

[WalkingCivilWar 39,259]

1 hour ago, Demons11 said:

You think the players are after individual accolades over a premiership? 

No, I’m sure they’d like both. 
But I’m also sure they wouldn’t dismiss the individual awards as being worth “SFA” as you put it. 

[drdrake 3,119]

3 hours ago, picket fence said:

Jones ???

I think Jones in Break Glass in case of emergency and that emergency would be injuries.  I think if you narrow your Finals squad you have the 22 from this week, the 3 that missed out plus AVB, Hunt and Weidermen.

[binman 41,948]

1 hour ago, Lord Nev said:

Noticed on a couple of those possessions he either stopped once he got to defensive 50 or ran back inside 50 after he got rid of it.

Definitely not run and carry in the first half at least. No 2nd half vision unfortunately given he didn't touch it.

Yep, that is true.

Which is to be expected given he was playing May's role and was man on man on Himmelburg.

After Himmelburg came off the vison suggests he picked up Thilthorpe.

In that role he got up well the ground, albeit tracking Thilthorpe and the (extended) vison shows him spoiling three times in the first quarter up on our half forward flank. Involvements that do not not get shown on a heat map.

Definitely no run and carry in the first half?

I must be seeing things: 

Thirty seconds into the second quarter Smith comes out and spoils an inside 50 kick aprox 40 metres out from the Crows goal. It spills to Nibbler, who kicks short to Tracc in the centre square.

Smith is running hard forward tracking the ball, which tracc immediately handballs to Spargo, who in turn handballs to Smith.

Smith, who started the chain inside the crows 50 metre, had run hard enough to get in front of the ball when he receives it on our half forward flank, despite the ball having been in constant motion.

Smith handballs back to Spargo, who kicks it inside 50 to Fritter who then kicks to a Oliver to set up a shot at goal. Of course Oliver misses it.

Eddie on the mike: 'there he goes again, Smith has run from run from full back to half forward as the link man'

Edited August 20, 2021 by binman