My ladder predictor says if West Coast lose tomorrow, they don’t play finals, win and they do

 

The game today showed a few things.

The first is that the Dogs are eminently beatable if they're not dominating the middle. Essendon won clearances 47-31 despite the Dogs fielding Bontempelli, Liberatore, Macrae, Treloar, Hunter, Smith and Dunkley. They kicked I think 5 goals from centre clearances. If the Dogs aren't on top in the middle the rest of their side isn't amazing.

The second is that accurate goalkicking is so important. The Dogs had 2 more scoring shots and 21 more inside 50s (60-39) but lost.

Essendon's unlikely to go 15.7 every week, kicking set shots from the pockets and 60m out, but they've done it in a game they needed to win.

Essendon has GC and Collingwood to come. If they win both they finish 11-11. With their percentage, that means they're close to certain to finish in front of West Coast, Fremantle or St Kilda if they also finish 11-11. 

Get ready for the Essendon hype train to kick into full gear.

Don’t underestimate the heat that top of the ladder position brings. Yes the Dons were playing for finals but top team is extra incentive. 
 

I can just see us coughing it up tomorrow though. 

Dogs have some genuine injury concerns now worth Shache and Bruce. 

We need to plant Gawn down there when we play them next and have Kozzy and Spargs at his feet. It’s the key to beating them. 

Would anyone accept a draw against West Coast tomorrow, collecting another 2 points?

Now that we've been presented with the killer script lets hope we don't fluff our lines tomorrow night. 

Results, injuries and (possible? 🙄) suspensions have handed us top spot on a plate.

If we are good enough, we'll take our chance and get it done.

12 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

This isn't as good a result for us as people think.

If we go 2-1 from here and the Dogs go 2-0, the Dogs will finish above us - even with this loss, we still have to win all three games, and/or the Dogs have to lose to Hawthorn or Port (in Melbourne), for us to finish above them.

It's certainly possible (Port's in form, for example), but it's still not that likely.

But Essendon's win puts them in pole position to finish in the top 8, particularly if we beat West Coast tomorrow (Essendon has the percentage buffer over all their competitors).

TU, the team above us by just half a game lost to a mid table side. And Essendon isn't relevant to us until possibly the second round of the finals. You're overthinking. 

11 minutes ago, Smokey said:

Well tomorrow night is important now 

That dangerous tackle on Bont was just vintage..

43 minutes ago, Demonland said:

The Bulldogs are so lucky with free kicks and 50 metres

"lucky"

14 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

This isn't as good a result for us as people think.

If we go 2-1 from here and the Dogs go 2-0, the Dogs will finish above us - even with this loss, we still have to win all three games, and/or the Dogs have to lose to Hawthorn or Port (in Melbourne), for us to finish above them.

It's certainly possible (Port's in form, for example), but it's still not that likely.

But Essendon's win puts them in pole position to finish in the top 8, particularly if we beat West Coast tomorrow (Essendon has the percentage buffer over all their competitors).

I have no issue with us finishing second below the Dogs, as that takes away the weight of expectations placed on minor premiers. Besides, in recent times, minor premiers have, in most cases, not gone on to win the GF.

Edited August 8, 20214 yr by hardtack

I'm sorry but essendon winning still makes me sick. 

 

Just now, hardtack said:

I have no issue with us finishing second below Essendon as that takes away the weight of expectations placed on minor premiers. Besides, in recent times, minor premiers have, in most cases, not gone on to win the GF.

Would be a fair effort by Essendon to finish on top from here.

3 minutes ago, CYB said:

Don’t underestimate the heat that top of the ladder position brings. Yes the Dons were playing for finals but top team is extra incentive. 
 

I can just see us coughing it up tomorrow though. 

Dogs have some genuine injury concerns now worth Shache and Bruce. 

We need to plant Gawn down there when we play them next and have Kozzy and Spargs at his feet. It’s the key to beating them. 

Not as much as winning clearances (taking away the Dogs' biggest strength) and getting it inside 50 quickly, putting pressure on their backline.

If Peter Wright can kick 7 goals against their backline, TMac/Brown can as well.

2 minutes ago, Return to Glory said:

TU, the team above us by just half a game lost to a mid table side. And Essendon isn't relevant to us until possibly the second round of the finals. You're overthinking. 

Do you see us going 3-0 from here?

If not, it likely makes no difference to us.

3 minutes ago, Tom Dyson said:

I'm sorry but essendon winning still makes me sick. 

 

You spelled whining incorrectly

17 minutes ago, dees189227 said:

You do realise that Essendon have an easy last 2 games and will probably make finals now and we have to put up with there arrogant fans. They are actually not a bad team & could cause some trouble. 

Who cares, it will just make it even funnier when they bomb out in week 1 again (probably have to play Sydney)

Rather them than Richmond or GWS

There is every reason to think we will go 3-0 from here. Each of these games is winnable. We are not trying to make the finals; we are trying to win finals and particularly, the grand final. If we are good enough to do that, we are easily good enough to win the next three.

Disgraceful frees to Bont on the last 10m

Protected species.

Grabs ball tries to break through two tacklers, drops ball 

 

......holding the man

 

FMD ump

3 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Not as much as winning clearances (taking away the Dogs' biggest strength) and getting it inside 50 quickly, putting pressure on their backline.

If Peter Wright can kick 7 goals against their backline, TMac/Brown can as well.

Do you see us going 3-0 from here?

If not, it likely makes no difference to us.

I just don't agree with 'it's no as good as people think'. Yes it is. Absolutely. We have to take advantage of it but the other option is that the Dogs win today. That's a bad result. 

31 minutes ago, picket fence said:

Dropped the ball 5hen threw a m arm out disgraceful umpiring

That's where poor umpires focus on the players and not the game itself.

I don't care what anyone says, he's brilliant on the outside, but has no defensive game at all does Bontempelli. 0 tackles. If he gets votes in that game it's a joke.

How bloody wonderful was it to see that mob beaten? Another test, another failure. 

If the Bulldogs aren't winning clearance, they can't win games. They can't even generate inside 50s. Their style won't hold up in finals unless they pull 2 or 3 performances out of their arses. Can't see it. The flag is ours to lose from here.

Schache is a comedian of a defender by the way. Has the reaction time of a corpse.

Funny to see everyone ripping out hairs over the last month thinking we will miss top 4 while everyone else will win every game possible to make that an eventuality. It was never going to happen every team drops a few it doesn’t mean we or anyone else is done and can’t win the flag, hope everyone thinks back to this next time

Edited August 8, 20214 yr by Garbo

13 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Do you see us going 3-0 from here?

Yes

15 minutes ago, Chook said:

Would be a fair effort by Essendon to finish on top from here.

Yeah they’d have to win eight of their next three matches.