15 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

i don't think we're a 'sexy' side compared to footscray, the bears, or even the peptides, who are all high attack, high scoring teams

we're more grinders who stop the oppo scoring and keep them at arm's length from us; it's why we don't score super heavily but neither do our opposition

i don't think there's any doubt that we are very well respected by oppo coaches etc because they're trying to work out how to stop us stopping them - they have to play high risk, high reward football to take us on, which is obviously fraught with danger given how well we are set up defensively

i'd rather be respected by other football clubs than the media

Swans 2005 ?

2 minutes ago, loges said:

Swans 2005 ?

yep, good comparison

17 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I think the media would argue that it's the audience (viewers, listeners and readers) who aren't deep thinkers and without long attention spans. The media then plays to the limitations of its audience by discussing something as fresh as possible. And I suspect that view is probably correct.

Kane Cornes is very clever in his role at sparking up debate and conversation through each week. I doubt he truly believes most of the things he comes up with. Hard to hate him when you look closely at what his actual role in the media is, and how well he knows his audience and what will rile them up.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/06/30/west-coast-great-predicts-how-the-top-eight-will-finish-come-seasons-end/
 

Going with the OP, Peter Sumich doesn’t even think Melbourne will finish top 4! 
 

I can definitely understand why people think doggies will finish on top, but surely not rating us a likely top 4 spot is pushing it. (Touch wood) 

why? We won't finish top 4. If you look at the fixture closely it's pretty clear that we will finish 5th. 

4 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

why? We won't finish top 4. If you look at the fixture closely it's pretty clear that we will finish 5th. 

Crystal ball strikes again, but I think your ball is shattered.

12 minutes ago, drysdale demon said:

Crystal ball strikes again, but I think your ball is shattered.

I'm not convinced that posters on anonymous forums have any balls.

(And, yes, I know I'm one of those posters.)

 

I hope at some point you truly do put some faith in the Dees mate. 

Edited June 30, 20214 yr by Click_Bate

16 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

why? We won't finish top 4. If you look at the fixture closely it's pretty clear that we will finish 5th. 

Part of me agrees with you - is it the cynical, pessimistic MFC supporter in me or is it the football analyst that can see cracks in our game style and the way we play the game... I really don't know which part of me :). 

 The Doggies, Lions and Cats really can blow teams away and they look magnificent when they are on. We haven't had one of those really convincing wins this year (bar Richmond and probably Lions 2nd half). We just get over the line week after week despite beating all of those teams (bar PA and WC). That is probably why the media aren't really buying into our hype is that we havent really looked convincing. 

I wonder if we genuinely have another gear to goto, because it feels like we are just waiting for something to click. What i have seen is that our pressure index is probably average to slightly above average week after week. But there have been games / quarters when that goes to elite levels and when we do, it does look quite marvelous. I think this is something that the players and coaching group can control and maybe what we are seeing is actually by design. 

Mathew Richardson said we grind down the opposition at our own pace and they can’t keep matching us for the whole game. We don’t lose or win biggly. Other teams have had more inconsistencies between their worst and best. People like bright shiny things so they remember the high scoring one sided junk time games we don’t seem to participate in. Half the Bulldogs win over WC was played in junk time. The result reflected WC’s underdone players and tall marking forward line. The first half weather in Perth was terrible. Violent wind and rain that suited the contested ball winning game of the bulldogs. No home crowd support either. It was not as dominant a win as is being suggested. 

Edited June 30, 20214 yr by John Crow Batty

28 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

why? We won't finish top 4. If you look at the fixture closely it's pretty clear that we will finish 5th. 

Wow, do you have lottery numbers for me? 

4 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Wow, do you have lottery numbers for me? 

For $100 I will sell you the winning numbers guaranteed!

 

PS Last weeks

35 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

why? We won't finish top 4. If you look at the fixture closely it's pretty clear that we will finish 5th. 

I wouldn't put money on the fixture staying as is for the rest of the season.

this is why i have dr. d on ignore; his doom and gloom is positively exhausting

we'll all be 'rooned, said hanrahan!

it's called analysis. criticise me all you like but I've done 4 or 5 ladder predictors already. Have you guys? Probably not.  Do a ladder predictor and then get back to me. 

I've been right on Jackson not being a forward wasn't I? When half of this forum was banging down the doors saying he was going to kick a bag soon and showing me comparisons of him with Josh Kennedy etc. Yeah, no. He's a great player, but he's not a fwd.  This gives me at least 2 years of credit in the bank. Also the Kozzie form now is also what I saw in him last year. So it's all starting to even out now. 

Everyone is busy just selling the narrative that suits them. 'You have to be able to dominate weaker teams', 'Defence wins premierships', 'The Dees can't score enough to win finals'

In the end the only score you need is one point more than your opponent kicks. Everything else is just a narrative that we all apply after the fact to pretend that we knew all along it was going to happen a particular way. 

As for where we will finish on the ladder, not only is your statement negative and defeatist @Dr.D it has absolutely no grounding in fact. If you are actually a Dees supporter I just feel sorry for you. Even after we have beaten every top 8 team we have faced and lost to none, you still can't get a little excited and believe in the boys. Poor you. 

18 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I think the media would argue that it's the audience (viewers, listeners and readers) who aren't deep thinkers and without long attention spans. The media then plays to the limitations of its audience by discussing something as fresh as possible. And I suspect that view is probably correct.

Good point.  I am new to On the Couch and Kayo and have found that show and Kayo game day special comments head and shoulder above any show on Free to air - with 2 exceptions:

Any Ch 7 game with Daisy Pearce as special comments

 and The Front Bar.

1 minute ago, FlashInThePan said:

Everyone is busy just selling the narrative that suits them. 'You have to be able to dominate weaker teams', 'Defence wins premierships', 'The Dees can't score enough to win finals'

In the end the only score you need is one point more than your opponent kicks. Everything else is just a narrative that we all apply after the fact to pretend that we knew all along it was going to happen a particular way. 

As for where we will finish on the ladder, not only is your statement negative and defeatist @Dr.D it has absolutely no grounding in fact. If you are actually a Dees supporter I just feel sorry for you. Even after we have beaten every top 8 team we have faced and lost to none, you still can't get a little excited and believe in the boys. Poor you. 

How is me being a supporter got to do with anything? Are you really that blinded that you can't have an unbiased view? That's embarrassing that you can't be impartial. 

I see us beating GWS, Hawthorn, Suns and Adelaide and losing to Port, WCE, Geelong, Dogs. I think that's reasonable given our form has dropped off a bit. 

14 hours ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

Lloyd is the master of this. 

Matthew Lloyd is a rank ameteur on providing analytical discussion along with the child-like graphics he/the show producers use to explain an issue.

2 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

How is me being a supporter got to do with anything? Are you really that blinded that you can't have an unbiased view? That's embarrassing that you can't be impartial. 

I see us beating GWS, Hawthorn, Suns and Adelaide and losing to Port, WCE, Geelong, Dogs. I think that's reasonable given our form has dropped off a bit. 

So you are convinced our season is in terminal decline then.

3 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

How is me being a supporter got to do with anything? Are you really that blinded that you can't have an unbiased view? That's embarrassing that you can't be impartial. 

I see us beating GWS, Hawthorn, Suns and Adelaide and losing to Port, WCE, Geelong, Dogs. I think that's reasonable given our form has dropped off a bit. 

There is no evidence for your opinion, just your own negativity. We have already beaten the Cats and Dogs and quite convincingly. i see no evidence of a form drop off. Players come into and out of form in games across the season, if the outcome is consistent winning, that is all that matters. To use the positive spin, our way to goal is very difficult to predict. Some weeks it comes from traditional forwards, some weeks from midfielders. In 12 out of 14 games we have kicked a higher score than our opponent, our losses have come due to our own drop off in intensity, not being worked out and beaten.

5 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

How is me being a supporter got to do with anything? Are you really that blinded that you can't have an unbiased view? That's embarrassing that you can't be impartial. 

I see us beating GWS, Hawthorn, Suns and Adelaide and losing to Port, WCE, Geelong, Dogs. I think that's reasonable given our form has dropped off a bit. 

I'm with you DRD on this issue.  It's an intersting discussion between a supporters optimism (which I don't have) and reality (which I do have).

My only additon to your prognostication is that I have a lot more faith in coaching and leadership on the ground nowadays (note Dogs and Lions wins for example.)

On that score I think a Port win and a Geelong win is possible - but not bankable in the slightest. The others are realistically in the loss column.

14 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

How is me being a supporter got to do with anything? Are you really that blinded that you can't have an unbiased view? That's embarrassing that you can't be impartial. 

I see us beating GWS, Hawthorn, Suns and Adelaide and losing to Port, WCE, Geelong, Dogs. I think that's reasonable given our form has dropped off a bit. 

We are 2 games clear of non top 4, and you admit we are likely to win another 4. Leaving out doggies, it means each of Cats, port and lions winning at least 6/8 games and jump us on %, or 7/8 games with us losing all 4 of the games you mentioned. While I understand those teams are great and have a relatively soft draw left over, statistically it is likely that they will drop at least one of those games each, or that we will win one of the four games you believe we will lose. Obviously it could be very Melbourne to drop one of the games you believe we will win, but the odds of all of that happening are very low, as demonstrated by our odds of staying top 4 are $1.08 on Sportsbet. 
the stats aren’t with you, it’s your longstanding disbelief in the dees that makes your mind up for you. 

27 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

it's called analysis. criticise me all you like but I've done 4 or 5 ladder predictors already. Have you guys? Probably not.  Do a ladder predictor and then get back to me. 

I've been right on Jackson not being a forward wasn't I? When half of this forum was banging down the doors saying he was going to kick a bag soon and showing me comparisons of him with Josh Kennedy etc. Yeah, no. He's a great player, but he's not a fwd.  This gives me at least 2 years of credit in the bank. Also the Kozzie form now is also what I saw in him last year. So it's all starting to even out now. 

I always like to start with statistical probability.

Squiggle has us finishing first (up from IIRC 2nd last week).

Matter of stats has us as 91% and 88% chance of top 4, depending on the number of simulations. http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-simulations/2021-simulating-the-final-ladder-after-round-14.

30-35% chance of 1st.

1 hour ago, Dr.D said:

How is me being a supporter got to do with anything? Are you really that blinded that you can't have an unbiased view? That's embarrassing that you can't be impartial. 

I see us beating GWS, Hawthorn, Suns and Adelaide and losing to Port, WCE, Geelong, Dogs. I think that's reasonable given our form has dropped off a bit. 

Yes but you also "saw" us losing to Essendon.