36 minutes ago, D4Life said:

What percentage would you have given us for being 11-2?

 

flawed logic. it's like if it lands on red 11/13 times on the roulette wheel you don't then double down on the same thing happening again. 

4 hours ago, DubDee said:

Wins:

• Bombers
• GWS
• Hawks
• Gold Coast
• Dogs
• Crows

Losses:

• Port (away)
• WC (away)
• Cats (away)

Will leave us 17-5 and in the top 2. Obviously we could easily win against Port/WC/Cats, conversely we could easily lose to the six easer games.  On balance and if we keep up the form we have shown in the first 13 games we should finish with 17 wins

The games need to freshen up for sure over the bye and unlike many of our challengers we do not have many injuries to significant players (eg, Butters, Treloar, Shuey etc)

I reckon you’re spot on 

4 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

So tired of always having to play at the cattery.

Not only is it always hard to win its a hole for other team supporters.

There are some clubs who always manage to evade the place. 

This year means we have played at GMHBA 16 of the last 20 seasons. Since 2002, the only seasons we haven't gone there were 2007, 2014, 2017 and 2020).

And in 2017 we were still drawn to be away to Geelong, but GMHBA was being renovated so the game was at Marvel.

We were scheduled to play at GMHBA in 2020 originally too, so if COVID hadn't happened it would be 17 of the last 20 seasons.

Which means, since 2002, only twice has the AFL drawn up a fixture and not had us away to Geelong (2007 and 2014).

23 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

i don't know how you factor in those %s of wins

for me there's 1 of possible three results for every match-up; win, lose, or draw

footy is a funny ol' game...

I'm with you WWSW, using your logic 9 games left = 5xL, 5xW and a draw. Chance of this happening is 50%.

We actually play pretty well at Geelong when we are up and about. Not impossible to win down there at all.

Brisbane should have won down there. No reason why we can't get the Win.

11 hours ago, dworship said:

I'm with you WWSW, using your logic 9 games left = 5xL, 5xW and a draw. Chance of this happening is 50%.

Haha, I’d say the chance of this happening is 0%, unless 5 + 5 + 1 does in fact equal 9  - or am I missing something?

11 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

This year means we have played at GMHBA 16 of the last 20 seasons. Since 2002, the only seasons we haven't gone there were 2007, 2014, 2017 and 2020).

And in 2017 we were still drawn to be away to Geelong, but GMHBA was being renovated so the game was at Marvel.

We were scheduled to play at GMHBA in 2020 originally too, so if COVID hadn't happened it would be 17 of the last 20 seasons.

Which means, since 2002, only twice has the AFL drawn up a fixture and not had us away to Geelong (2007 and 2014).

Be good to have a year or two NOT at Kardinia or that blasted Optus

24 minutes ago, Neil Crompton said:

Haha, I’d say the chance of this happening is 0%, unless 5 + 5 + 1 does in fact equal 9  - or am I missing something?

Nope, didn't miss a thing.

13 minutes ago, dworship said:

Nope, didn't miss a thing.

That’s good to know, because after your previous comment to me that “You really should stick to petrol sniffing”, I was beginning to question whether in fact the fumes had affected my thinking. 

 

It really still smacks of us not being mentally tough and switched on enough.

We roll the tough teams and switch off and lose to the bad ones. The same can be said for our first quarter efforts being our weakest of most games.

Makes it hard to predict. 

Every good team still has a slump at some point.

I reckon we'll drop the bombers game, the sky will fall here, and then we'll straighten up to finish third or fourth.

We'll beat the cats at their home and I will love every second of it.

Viney and BB need to get in and fire.

If we can play every final at the MCG, we're still a good chance I reckon.

2 hours ago, Superunknown said:

Be good to have a year or two NOT at Kardinia or that blasted Optus

The odd thing about Optus is that recently we've only been sent over there to play West Coast.

This year will be our fourth H&A game at Optus Stadium, but all of them have been against West Coast (and it's happened each of the last four years consecutively).

We haven't travelled to Perth to play Fremantle since 2015. 7 of our last 8 trips to Perth in the H&A season have been to play West Coast.

9 of our last 10 games vs Fremantle have been our home games. It's the reverse of the situation we face with Carlton and Essendon.

We'll win 9 in a row once again

2 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

That’s good to know, because after your previous comment to me that “You really should stick to petrol sniffing”, I was beginning to question whether in fact the fumes had affected my thinking. 

 

All good, I was never any good at geometry, being quirky however.

I assumed, rightly or wrongly, that your display name was related to the MFC player in the 1960's who played in our last flag win. Preferring to think you were a Motor Racing fan of that Neil Crompton, led to the other comments.

Perhaps I'm wired wrong ...... or not.          

 

Edited June 18, 20214 yr by dworship
puntuation, damn commas

15 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

This year means we have played at GMHBA 16 of the last 20 seasons. Since 2002, the only seasons we haven't gone there were 2007, 2014, 2017 and 2020).

And in 2017 we were still drawn to be away to Geelong, but GMHBA was being renovated so the game was at Marvel.

We were scheduled to play at GMHBA in 2020 originally too, so if COVID hadn't happened it would be 17 of the last 20 seasons.

Which means, since 2002, only twice has the AFL drawn up a fixture and not had us away to Geelong (2007 and 2014).

If/when we win a flag, and finally gain some leverage with the AFL, my one wish would be to never ever go down to that hole again. No big Victorian club, regardless of how poorly they are performing, has had to play down there. We shouldn't be any different! 

If we need to play an away game against Geelong, make it at Marvel. 

57 minutes ago, Jaded said:

If/when we win a flag, and finally gain some leverage with the AFL, my one wish would be to never ever go down to that hole again. No big Victorian club, regardless of how poorly they are performing, has had to play down there. We shouldn't be any different! 

If we need to play an away game against Geelong, make it at Marvel. 

I don't agree.

My view is that everyone should go to Geelong. It's their home ground. I have no issue with playing their home games there, but it's manifestly unfair that Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond, Hawthorn and Essendon don't get sent there.

If Geelong want to "sell" two home games per year to the MCG, that should be fine, but that shouldn't stop those big clubs playing down in Geelong semi-regularly (e.g. in the years in which Easter Monday is a Hawthorn home game, Hawthorn should be sent down to Geelong).

If Geelong decides that it wants to host us at the MCG to make more money (on the same logic that leads it to host those five big clubs at the MCG rather than Geelong), that's fine with me, but it shouldn't be necessary.

3 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I don't agree.

My view is that everyone should go to Geelong. It's their home ground. I have no issue with playing their home games there, but it's manifestly unfair that Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond, Hawthorn and Essendon don't get sent there.

If Geelong want to "sell" two home games per year to the MCG, that should be fine, but that shouldn't stop those big clubs playing down in Geelong semi-regularly (e.g. in the years in which Easter Monday is a Hawthorn home game, Hawthorn should be sent down to Geelong).

If Geelong decides that it wants to host us at the MCG to make more money (on the same logic that leads it to host those five big clubs at the MCG rather than Geelong), that's fine with me, but it shouldn't be necessary.

Oh look the day Essendon Carlton Richmond and Hawthorn have to go play there on a regular basis, is the day I’ll stop whinging about playing there. 
Geelong should either only play interstate clubs there, or all clubs there on an even rotation. Not interstate clubs plus poor old Melbourne. 

Should be at least 7-2. Eagles and Geelong 50/50. We will beat Port.

If r23 comes and both teams are  playing for top position and if covid is all good, it will be difficult to get a ticket and lets hope that's the end of the AFL sending us down there. 

On 6/17/2021 at 8:48 AM, DubDee said:

Wins:

• Bombers
• GWS
• Hawks
• Gold Coast
• Dogs
• Crows

Losses:

• Port (away)
• WC (away)
• Cats (away)

Will leave us 17-5 and in the top 2. Obviously we could easily win against Port/WC/Cats, conversely we could easily lose to the six easer games.  On balance and if we keep up the form we have shown in the first 13 games we should finish with 17 wins

The games need to freshen up for sure over the bye and unlike many of our challengers we do not have many injuries to significant players (eg, Butters, Treloar, Shuey etc)

This is my best estimate also, but when I put this in the AFL predictor it gives us 4th place with Geelong, Lions and the Dogs just above us by either one game or percentage. Suggests with those results we could finish anywhere from 1-4 depending on other team results and %. 

To get our percentage up higher we need to sort out our forward line, could be the difference between a home or away (in Geelong or Brisbane) final in round 1 of the finals. 

The last normal season of footy (2019), the top four consisted of Geelong, Brisbane and Richmond who won 16 games and the Pies with 15 wins and got 4th on percentage over the Eagles. 

I think we need at least 16 but hopefully 17+ wins which is likely given the winnable games and our record against top 8 sides…

If Dogs or Cats finish 1st and 2nd then it doesn’t matter if we finish 3rd or 4th as those finals would likely be played at the MCG.

Having said that if Melbourne turns up and plays their brand - we have the ability to beat anyone anywhere. So an interstate Qualifying Final shouldn’t scare us. 

Look if we can stay top 2 then we will get home finals and never have to travel. Simple in theory but we know that isn't reality.