My Round 11 Preview and Prediction

[CHF 2,768]

9-1

10 Rounds played…..9 wins….. 36 points in the premiership bank. WTF???? (the same a last week) And now 2^nd on the ladder.

Firstly, an apology, usually I bang this out on Mondays but as it was a public holiday where I am I had a couple of other things I needed to do and yesterday I had a game of golf. Played like a dog. Managed to scramble 33 points without hitting too many good shots and leaving a lot of points on the greens with less than good putts. Bit like us on the weekend, thereabouts but not good enough. Hence, I am banging it out today instead.

Damn, I found it frustrating to lose to Adelaide the way we did. Have to say no amount of “the umps got it wrong” from the AFL makes it any easier to accept. Hate it!

Our defence was found out and may had a shocker against Walker and his murder of crows. Of all the people to have a bad day against??? The rest of the defence team were also out of sorts, we gave up the most points in any match so far this season. Adelaide also applied constant midfield pressure that paid off for them. I hope that our newfound maturity is reflected in the game next week. We need to learn from this loss.

Still, as much as I was disappointed with the loss, Sitting 9-1 after the first 10 rounds is pretty damn pleasing. I would have ripped ya arm off taking that at any time before the season began.

And so, to the Round 11 encounter with the Bulldog at Marvel on Friday night. Big match…. And that is an understatement. Whoever wins this goes a game clear at the top and builds that little bit of a mental edge over the other team. The Bulldogs have been cruising lately but have a couple of injuries that may take their edge off. We have a few problems of our own on the injury front but that may be on the improve. Salem looks likely to be back which will help in defence and will also give us additional drive from the back half.

The facts:

We are coming off an umpire error loss in Adelaide - Advantage the maggots

They are coming off a light training run against the Saints witches hats. – Advantage them

We are playing on at Marvel– Advantage them

The odds are stacked against us.

Problem areas of the game for us. Umps are a problem that we cannot do anything about. They are already responsible for effecting the results of 3 games so far this season.

While the game itself ha the potential to be a classic, 1^st vs. 2^nd. There are individual contests within the game that will also be more than interesting. Who runs with Bont? Harmes? Who gets the job on Petracca and Oliver? There is going to be so much to watch.

As good as the defence has been for 9 rounds, it looked to lose all structure on Saturday. As I said, May had a less than ordinary game and there looked to be a plan in place by Adelaide to bring the ball into the forward 50 low and hard. It worked. Last week the bulldogs had 15 of their 21 goals scored by 5 of their forwards. If our defenders are no better than last week we are done. And done by a lot. Salem back for Jetta should help settle the group a bit. One can only hope.

Midfield improved their center clearances a bit and that will be needed to give us that initial drive to unsettle the Dogs. McCrea, Libba and Smith need to be controlled in this area. We can match them with Oliver and Petracca and last week Brayshaw snagged a good number of clearances as well. I see this area of the ground as a close arm wrestle that will determine the outcome of the game. We come up against the best midfield in the competition this week. It will be minus Treloar and that will be significant. Really looking forward to this contest. One area of the contest we might just have an advantage is on the wings.

Looks like English might be back after a 4 week layoff to challenge Max. Good to see Max regaining a bit of form last week. We won the clearances last week and gave up 15 goals. How does that work?

Now for the forwards…….

The good; There was no good

The bad; The goal tally from our KPFs

The ugly; My mood after the game.

Gee it must be tempting to go back to the initial setup we had at the beginning of the season that was forced upon us by injuries. There looked to be so much more room for the forwards to operate in. Last week it still looked crowded and the forwards were static with ordinary slow delivery. Not sure how you sort it out. I would still work this week around Tmac/Weid/ Fritsch setup with Jackson/Max working through there as required. Maybe best to leave all that to people that are wiser than I.

Changes? Salem back for sure. The other thing I want to see is Sparrow get another run. I like the pressure he brings, and I think he will develop well over the next season or so.

Bathwater Express is misfiring on a couple of cylinders and we missed out on the adding the twin overhead crow feathers to the aerial last week. Never mind, I will take 9-1 at this stage of the season. I am not one that will stop drinking the Kool-Aid at the first sign of stomach cramps or a bit of vomit in the mouth. I am in this all the way.

Now for the prediction…. Head and heart in a big battle. Head says Dogs in a close one. Heart says “never in doubt!”.

Have to go with the heart…… Dees by a couple of goals!

[kev martin 10,417]

Heard somewhere on a radio program that the roof at marvel will be open -- Advantage us.

Will cause some swirly wind that they possibly won't anticipate or adjust to, as well as us.

Edited May 26, 2021 by kev martin

[Ted Lasso 19,549]

Got a feeling the boys have been really setting themselves for this game, regardless of results i reckon it's going to be a cracker of a game 

[Tarax Club 3,960]

Being underdogs in the pecking order doesn’t sit well up here. If the response to the Adelaide imbroglio is emphatic wholistic and determined we’re in with a big chance. Next two rounds will determine if we have the right stuff going into the second half of the season. Go Demons!

[layzie 34,014]

Right now I'm just hoping we get a game.

[ding 5,126]

Dogs by the length of the straight i reckon. I will be surprised if we get within 6 goals. We will get slaughtered for clearances unless Trac play the vast majority of the game in the guts.

Having said that, i think we can beat the Lions the week after if that games goes ahead in the Territory. Different story if we get moved to Brisvegas.

Whatever happen in the next 2 games, we are still going deep into September.

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,307]

15 hours ago, kev martin said:

Heard somewhere on a radio program that the roof at marvel will be open -- Advantage us.

Will cause some swirly wind that they possibly won't anticipate or adjust to, as well as us.

Now that it's no crowds, roof may stay closed??

[leave it to deever 17,521]

16 hours ago, CHF said:

I found it frustrating to lose to Adelaide the way we did. Have to say no amount of “the umps got it wrong” from the AFL makes it any easier to accept. Hate it!

Thanks again CHF for another preview.

Yes , I could not agree more. Its salt in the wound. I think we all know umpires get conned bt interstate fans and it will certainly happen again.

A penalty system...ie suspendion for umps that make such huge clangers would be a real effort to make ammends.

[leave it to deever 17,521]

I think the fact we lost in such a cruel way shoukd give us extra motive to win.

Also there would be more media pressure if we were going for another win in a row.

Will be tough but I do think last weeks lost helps us in a strange fugazzi kind of way.

[leave it to deever 17,521]

Was Tmac played at Chf or ff against the crows?

I think if sam is going to play ...tgan Tom goes ff. If bb then Tom at chf. 

Not sure if ff is Sam ws best position. For his size he seems out muscled too easy. Maybe he needs more strength in his legs and experience.

 

[Willmoy1947 4,140]

I'm so worried , i'm going to read this topic blindfolded...

[BDA 22,895]

no crowds - advantage us

[McQueen 17,867]

If we get blown away in this game so too will our Premiership credentials. 

[Kent 2,914]

18 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Was Tmac played at Chf or ff against the crows?

I think if sam is going to play ...tgan Tom goes ff. If bb then Tom at chf. 

Not sure if ff is Sam ws best position. For his size he seems out muscled too easy. Maybe he needs more strength in his legs and experience.

 

its been a weakness of his since he started Never properly addressed

[old dee 23,872]

21 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Was Tmac played at Chf or ff against the crows?

I think if sam is going to play ...tgan Tom goes ff. If bb then Tom at chf. 

Not sure if ff is Sam ws best position. For his size he seems out muscled too easy. Maybe he needs more strength in his legs and experience.

 

Maybe we need to replace him he just ain't good enough. VFL talent who cannot cut it at senior level. 

[Fritta and Turner 4,541]

Gee I hope we win coz this site is turning nasty....

[old dee 23,872]

7 minutes ago, Jontee said:

Gee I hope we win coz this site is turning nasty....

Than before Jontee? This year it has been sweetness and light even after last week. 
However I might hibernate if we get a licking tomorrow night.

[Deemania since 56 6,719]

3 minutes ago, Jontee said:

Gee I hope we win coz this site is turning nasty....

That it is turning nasty is not surprising, with so many players competing for spots and some not getting a run, whereas others get games gifted because of the way they might hold their mouth. It is confusing to many Demonlanders doing hypotheticals about their beloved Demon brethren, being left in the lurch of misinformation, silenced whispers and vague statements of non-committal - nearly every week. It is almost as if the team is in relapse to a worsened state; this is reflected in the comments and vitriole of DL fans and now, we are attacking each other anonymously in the search for clues as to what is actually going on with the team, the individual players and the outcomes of what has been an extremely successful season so far this year.

We are attempting to shake, rattle and roll in the realm of recent, past seasons and latent change.

Carna Dees!

[Tarax Club 3,960]

Expecting some lost dogs come Friday. (For the pessimistic cats)

[leave it to deever 17,521]

I think we will play our best footy tmrw and win. Win quite well in fact.

It was a tough way to lose last week. We will be fired up.

This is our biggest test...we will be fired up.

We are the underdogs...we will be fired up.

No more games in row focus.

No way our great backline has another shocker like that crows game...especially with Salem back.

Fritz and Kozzie are too good to be kept down.

Tmac likewise and Sam is out to prove his career. We will be fired up.

Dees by thirty one points.

[buck_nekkid 6,046]

This game will be won if we halve the midfield and slow them down.  We need to have the ball halved in contests and the defence able to set up.  Bruce and naughton work well with fast delivery.  If we stop this it goes a long way to us winning.

can see us winning if we blow the pressure gauges out of sight.  If we play like last week, we will get cut open badly.

we can win, and if they grunt it will be a 25 point win.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,510]

I think this game and round will be hugely unpredictable and won or lost in the head.  With all the competing stress, anxiety, insecurity and disrupted preparation; this round could be turn conventional tipping on its head.

Whichever team is able to block out all the COVID/lockdown noise and focus entirely on the game, will win - and win handsomely, if the other team has allowed the preceding 48 hours to affect them.

 

[Young Blood 2,634]

I like the positive/wishful thinking on here.

I just think the dogs are a cleaner more efficient football team and I feel like we allow teams too much space moving the ball through the corridor with speed at times. I fear they could really cut us up.

Our backline will be better this week. But the Crows were able really expose us with the precise quick ball movement. Look for Bulldogs to lower their eyes and move the ball inside 50 low and out in front of Naughton, Bruce and English. They play this ground so well with speed and precision, not sure if we can slow them down.

HOPE I'M WRONG!

Dogs by 3 goals.

[Young Blood 2,634]

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by Yung Blood