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COVID & AFL 2021

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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40 minutes ago, Jara said:

Hey Daisy

 My wife tells me they're having a real battle in the ED to keep people out of ICU - ie keeping them in  bays, hoping they can be sent home. I gather they're really nervous about what's coming down the line. 

 

 

that's quite understandable, jara.  It must be a very difficult and uncertain job

as to what is coming down the line, i wouldn't even dare to speculate........i can only hope it gets better sooner than later

people like your wife do a great job 

    • Like 6
    4 hours ago, Clintosaurus said:

    If any of this stops me going to Round 1......

    Don't even joke about that mate 😡

    • Like 1
     

    It's warming up out there and I'm not talking about the weather.

    To date we have had the luxury of studying overseas trends in advance of significant outbreaks but not this time.

    The new rules for PCR testing could see a nominal reduction in official cases but the speculation about "real numbers" will explode.

    • Like 2
    1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    It's warming up out there and I'm not talking about the weather.

    To date we have had the luxury of studying overseas trends in advance of significant outbreaks but not this time.

    The new rules for PCR testing could see a nominal reduction in official cases but the speculation about "real numbers" will explode.

    The way it is looking I might finally have to take out a Kayo subscription. 

    • Haha 1

    Well here is an indicator of what is to come at AFL level in 2022. Travis head is out of Aussie test team. Has contracted Covid. 

    • Thanks 1
    16 minutes ago, old dee said:

    Well here is an indicator of what is to come at AFL level in 2022. Travis head is out of Aussie test team. Has contracted Covid. 

    According to the ABC report he got it in Melbourne.

    Interesting that if both he and David Boon had been following the new National Cabinet testing protocols neither would have been tested.

    Could this be the end of sports covid testing for the non symptomatic

    • Like 1

    Fear this will wreak havoc across our “golden era”

    Suns will probably pinch one

    MFCSS

    • Haha 1
     

    You know the old cliche line from horror movies, "It is inside the building!"

    Aged Care.

    They've done everything they can to keep the virus out for as long as they can but when the choice is between not providing care at all or using staff who bring some risk of contact-spread, you just have to take the infection risk. Then once it is into your residents there's very little that can be done. It's not like there are hospitals with spare beds and staff to monitor them safely unless they are getting critical.

    Thanks to lockdowns we've had time to roll out vaccinations and improve treatments. The mortality even for the (vaccinated) elderly could be as low as 1%, provided the treatment is actually available.

    Unfortunately, right now all branches of health care are woefully understaffed and disrupted by daily waves of positive tests and close-contact isolations.

    If anyone still remembers 'flatten the curve'; that's the whole ball game now.

    We are all going to get Covid19 in some form. 
    The sooner the better. 
     

    get Vaccinated and it won’t be too bad

    • Like 3

    Hopefully by March a large proportion of us will have had covid without too much pressure on hospitals And finally some herd immunity will occur

    • Like 1
    1 hour ago, DubDee said:

    Hopefully by March a large proportion of us will have had covid without too much pressure on hospitals And finally some herd immunity will occur

    Herd immunity has so far been a furphy with this virus....so I wouldn't be counting on it.

    • Like 2
    13 minutes ago, rjay said:

    Herd immunity has so far been a furphy with this virus....so I wouldn't be counting on it.

    you don't get herd immunity when only 3.6% of the world  (1.65% for australia) has acquired covid

    • Like 4
    38 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

    you don't get herd immunity when only 3.6% of the world  (1.65% for australia) has acquired covid

    Recall reading somewhere that covid vaccination is far more effective at preventing infection than acquiring covid is against reinfection.

    Will search for a link 

    Edit. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/covid-natural-immunity-what-you-need-to-know

    Edited by Stiff Arm

    17 hours ago, daisycutter said:

    you don't get herd immunity when only 3.6% of the world  (1.65% for australia) has acquired covid

    No, but some countries have had significant infection/reinfection rates...South Africa I think is one.


    18 hours ago, rjay said:

    Herd immunity has so far been a furphy with this virus....so I wouldn't be counting on it.

    True but This variant is different. Spreads way more quickly and relatively mild so people won’t know they have it and will keep going out and about. Therefore herd immunity could well be a factor. Hopefully we see it in the northern hemisphere soon and can learn from it

    before we stayed home and wanted donut days. Soon we’ll have 20K days like NSW. Plus I reckon way more people have and aren’t getting tested 

    • Like 3
    11 minutes ago, DubDee said:

    True but This variant is different. Spreads way more quickly and relatively mild so people won’t know they have it and will keep going out and about. Therefore herd immunity could well be a factor. Hopefully we see it in the northern hemisphere soon and can learn from it

    before we stayed home and wanted donut days. Soon we’ll have 20K days like NSW. Plus I reckon way more people have and aren’t getting tested 

    I sure hope you are right 'DubDee'...it's been a hard few years for all of us.

    • Like 1

    Must say that the rate of increase in the recently opened States has surprised me a little given the pre entry testing that was relatively full on for the first week or so.

    Qld social media is full of people lamenting the open border policy.

    Will WA really open in the first week of February.

    Surprised we're not letting overseas tourists in. Can't do much harm.On the other hand there's little politcal upside for the Feds to make that decision.

    The Queensland pre testing rules which are unenforceable remind me of the copyright rules introduced all those years ago re taping TV chows onto VHS. (You and the family could watch it but you couldn't share the tape.)

    On 12/31/2021 at 1:33 PM, Little Goffy said:

    You know the old cliche line from horror movies, "It is inside the building!"

    Aged Care.

    They've done everything they can to keep the virus out for as long as they can but when the choice is between not providing care at all or using staff who bring some risk of contact-spread, you just have to take the infection risk. Then once it is into your residents there's very little that can be done. It's not like there are hospitals with spare beds and staff to monitor them safely unless they are getting critical.

    Thanks to lockdowns we've had time to roll out vaccinations and improve treatments. The mortality even for the (vaccinated) elderly could be as low as 1%, provided the treatment is actually available.

    Unfortunately, right now all branches of health care are woefully understaffed and disrupted by daily waves of positive tests and close-contact isolations.

    If anyone still remembers 'flatten the curve'; that's the whole ball game now.

    Yep as someone who works in aged care thankfully for the moment we have kept it out but I feel the walls are closing in. Which would just shatter me because we have kept it at bay for now and after all our hard work last year it would just annoy me as we are all doubled vaccinated and getting the booster next week.

    The stupid thing is visitors must have had a flu shot before they can even enter the front door but he covid vaccine isn't mandatory for visitors. Which makes no sense. My manager has been fighting with the fed government for months on this. 

    • Like 3
    • Love 1

    And just after you thought things could not be more "interesting"....

    Along comes another likely variant. In France at present from the Cameroons.

    The medical world is on alert yet again after a new mutant Covid-19 variant emerged in France recently.

    The new strain, dubbed “variant IHU” or B. 1.640.2, was first detected in the nation last month, but is now making international headlines after catching the attention of global experts.

    At least 12 cases were confirmed near the Marseilles area, and it is understood that many of those patients were hospitalised with the illness.

    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/health/french-scientists-discover-new-mutant-covid-variant-which-could-be-more-resistant-to-vaccines/news-story/3f0f3dd255130ce57d68cde9292a94d6

    But there could be good news.....

    However, on a more positive note, the new strain does not appear to be spreading rapidly.

    The article also goes on to say that it could be outcompeted by our "friend" Omicron !!

    Edited by Diamond_Jim

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Sometimes KB has a way with words...

    Novak Djokovic is the greatest tennis player ever. Forget Laver, Agassi ,Federer,Sampras,Nadal,McEnroe,Connors and Borg for Novak has won 20 Grand Slams and 87 titles and a billion dollars without us knowing he had a debilitating medical problem.We have been taken for fools. Kb

    — Kevin Bartlett (@KevinBartlett29) January 4, 2022

    • Like 2
    • Haha 3
    2 hours ago, rjay said:

    Sometimes KB has a way with words...

    Novak Djokovic is the greatest tennis player ever. Forget Laver, Agassi ,Federer,Sampras,Nadal,McEnroe,Connors and Borg for Novak has won 20 Grand Slams and 87 titles and a billion dollars without us knowing he had a debilitating medical problem.We have been taken for fools. Kb

    — Kevin Bartlett (@KevinBartlett29) January 4, 2022

    seems that catching covid in the last 6 months was an out. My cynicism radar is on full alert.

     

    • Like 1
     

    The first game of  2022 is near the end of March. Based on the South African experience, surely the Omricon wave will have run its race by then. Assuming we don't get another variant of concerns (a big assumption i know) the 2022 season should not face too much disruption you'd hope.

    However, there will likely be any number of disruptions between now and then.

    The AFLW will almost certainly be impacted, particular given most players also have other jobs and so therefore are more at risk of getting Omricon than the men. The lists are smaller too, which will make fielding sides problematic if too many players have to sit out games.

    And of course the AFLW is starting with numbers super high and possibly not peaking till a fair way in the AFLW season.

    For the AFL, teams are almost certain to face a range of disruption, for example an impact on the training program because of positive cases in the playing and/or coaching teams.

    Apart from disruption such as having to isolate groups of players and/or coaches, even with Omricon being less severe, as Kate Roffey pointed out at the Bluey elite athletes do not want to get a respiratory illness. Nor do they want any interruption to their preseason, such is the carefully calibrated program they have to complete. 

    (On the severity of Omricon, there is an interesting narrative developing. All the talk is about Omricon but Delta still makes up a high percentage of cases and as i understand it also a high percentage of hospitalisations. It is still very important to take measures to reduce transmission, one to try and stem the Omicron tide and get to the end of this wave as quickly as possible and two to prevent the spread of the more virulent and dangerous Delta variant.)

    The AFL teams that manage this situation the best will have a definite advantage come the 2022 season. Any team that can get through preseason with minimal interruption to their training program will have an edge over teams that have interruptions.

    Good management and luck will play a part, but i reckon a key determining factor will be having a team of young men who are motivated and disciplined enough to keep their eyes on the prize, minimise risks, avoid unnecessary risks and possibly eschew activities they would normally participate in over the preseason (eg nightclubbing, going away with mates, having a drink at the pub, going to parties etc). 

    I reckon the dees have such a group of players. 

    Edited by binman

    • Like 4
    39 minutes ago, binman said:

    The first game of  2022 is near the end of March. Based on the South African experience, surely the Omricon wave will have run its race by then. Assuming we don't get another variant of concerns (a big assumption i know) the 2022 season should not face too much disruption you'd hope.

    However, there will likely be any number of disruptions between now and then.

    The AFLW will almost certainly be impacted, particular given most players also have other jobs and so therefore are more at risk of getting Omricon than the men. The lists are smaller too, which will make fielding sides problematic if too many players have to sit out games.

    And of course the AFLW is starting with numbers super high and possibly not peaking till a fair way in the AFLW season.

    For the AFL, teams are almost certain to face a range of disruption, for example an impact on the training program because of positive cases in the playing and/or coaching teams.

    Apart from disruption such as having to isolate groups of players and/or coaches, even with Omricon being less severe, as Kate Roffey pointed out at the Bluey elite athletes do not want to get a respiratory illness. Nor do they want any interruption to their preseason, such is the carefully calibrated program they have to complete. 

    (On the severity of Omricon, there is an interesting narrative developing. All the talk is about Omricon but Delta still makes up a high percentage of cases and as i understand it also a high percentage of hospitalisations. It is still very important to take measures to reduce transmission, one to try and stem the Omicron tide and get to the end of this wave as quickly as possible and two to prevent the spread of the more virulent and dangerous Delta variant.)

    The AFL teams that manage this situation the best will have a definite advantage come the 2022 season. Any team that can get through preseason with minimal interruption to their training program will have an edge over teams that have interruptions.

    Good management and luck will play a part, but i reckon a key determining factor will be having a team of young men who are motivated and disciplined enough to keep their eyes on the prize, minimise risks, avoid unnecessary risks and possibly eschew activities they would normally participate in over the preseason (eg nightclubbing, going away with mates, having a drink at the pub, going to parties etc). 

    I reckon the dees have such a group of players. 

    I love your optimism but if Steven May’s Instagram off-season is anything to go by I’m less convinced about our social discipline 


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