Welcome to Demonland - Picks 18 & 19

[Little Goffy 14,032]

Possibility 1 - we are confident that with fewer than usual players being taken in 2020, the 2021 draft will be deeper with leftovers as well as being higher 'natural' quality as projected.  Not so much a need to get into the top picks.

Possibility 2 - our late first round picks might be traded out in live trading to clubs who want to get in ahead of their academy picks, so they can double-dip (can someone confirm for me that future picks can be live-traded?)

Possibility 3 - one final trade up to make sure we get Archie Perkins.

[Turner 1,489]

3 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

It seems logical to believe that next year’s draft crop will be better than this year’s because there are going to be a number of late developers who would otherwise have been noticed this year and who won’t be apparent until 2021.

Makes me wonder why we traded out of the 2021 first round.

the trick is as far as we know it, the universe is endless in time and as it appears so is afl football so... why not trade out a future pick every single year and just forever be out by a year it works as long as the world keeps spinning (or they remove future pick trading ? )

[Its Time for Another 4,088]

I suppose one aspect of there being so many Academy etc picks in the top 20 is on the other hand it will be one of the most predictable top 20’s ever in knowing what players will go where as those picks and what few players left will be available at our kicks. Maybe in the pool if players left there is a gem or 2 they’re very confident will be there. And they will be the dream speed and skill we do desperately need that will propel us to the promised land. Easy. 

[Grr-owl 1,171]

On 11/12/2020 at 11:45 AM, Kent said:

what are we aiming for any body know?

As I understand it, there are two blokes with great potential as outside mids.

[Grr-owl 1,171]

Do stats reveal a sweet spot in the draft? Far as I can see, high picks often don't work out. Maybe there's a range in there somewhere where a lot of top players are found....??? 

[manny100 1,396]

Having 18 and 19 gives us flexibility. We can use them or trade one or both for futures. If a kid slips and a team desperate for him we may get a great deal for a 2021 pick.

We may even have our eye on a couple of kids.

[Grr-owl 1,171]

On 11/13/2020 at 1:37 AM, Action Jackson said:

Brown, Jackson, Weid & McDonald

We still have Mitch Brown as well.... Given the potential for confusion, I suggest we refer to Ben Brown as Brown1 and Mitch Brown as Brown2. Both could be abbreviated further for typing ease to B1 and B2.

 

[adonski 10,897]

Does anyone have Carroll & Isiah Winder footage?

[Earl Hood 6,058]

6 minutes ago, Grr-owl said:

We still have Mitch Brown as well.... Given the potential for confusion, I suggest we refer to Ben Brown as Brown1 and Mitch Brown as Brown2. Both could be abbreviated further for typing ease to B1 and B2.

 

Mitch arrived at MFC first so he should be B1 and Ben B2! That would be less confusing. 

[TRIGON 4,780]

5 hours ago, cantstandyasam said:

I think it could be strategic. Maybe we have a father son who we rate round oneish, I'm thinkingperhaqps someone from WA whose dad was a fan favourite. Oh yeah, he won a Brownlow too.

Is he predicted to go in the 1st Round?

[Demonstone 21,831]

As a youngster, I was far less interested in Bananas In Pyjamas when compared to Zucchinis In Bikinis.  

[whatwhat say what 22,208]

46 minutes ago, Grr-owl said:

Do stats reveal a sweet spot in the draft? Far as I can see, high picks often don't work out. Maybe there's a range in there somewhere where a lot of top players are found....??? 

good resource here: https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks

looks like pick 19 has a stronger history than 18

[Lucifers Hero 38,985]

18 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Possibility 1 - we are confident that with fewer than usual players being taken in 2020, the 2021 draft will be deeper with leftovers as well as being higher 'natural' quality as projected.  Not so much a need to get into the top picks.

Possibility 2 - our late first round picks might be traded out in live trading to clubs who want to get in ahead of their academy picks, so they can double-dip (can someone confirm for me that future picks can be live-traded?)

Possibility 3 - one final trade up to make sure we get Archie Perkins.

Yes, future picks can be live traded.  But, we can't trade any more future picks until we trade in a 2021 1st round pick, which is unlikely.

Pick trade up will be difficult for us because initially, not many clubs with pick #1-#5 will want to trade them out.  And if they do there will be plenty of competition with clubs, holding stronger hands that have said they want to trade up: 

• GWS (holding picks 10, 13, 15, and 20 and a full hand of 2021 picks).  They aggressively gave up trade value (in points) last year to get into the top 3.
• Collingwood (holding picks 14 and 16 and want to trade out their 2021 1st pick). 
• GCS (holding pick 5 and a full hand of 2021 picks).  They will be relying on Adel, North or Hawks to take their pick #5 and their future 1st.  GCS traded up aggressively last year and were willing to give up trade value (in points).

Each club will out-trump our holding (pick 18 and 19) for picks 1-5.

Unfortunately, that means heavy competition for Ess picks 6,7 or 8.  Good luck trying to get a reasonable deal from them or even a timely deal.  So I can't see us trading up higher than 10 which will slide to 13-16. 

Not great news for us but that is my take of the lay of land.

We may be better off keeping our picks because some players will surely slide and we may get one of maybe 2 or 3 we have our eye on.  Doubt that is the clubs plan but I don't think we have the hand to get too far up the order.

Edited November 14, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[buck_nekkid 5,819]

16 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Possibility 1 - we are confident that with fewer than usual players being taken in 2020, the 2021 draft will be deeper with leftovers as well as being higher 'natural' quality as projected.  Not so much a need to get into the top picks.

Possibility 2 - our late first round picks might be traded out in live trading to clubs who want to get in ahead of their academy picks, so they can double-dip (can someone confirm for me that future picks can be live-traded?)

Possibility 3 - one final trade up to make sure we get Archie Perkins.

Possibility 4:  we expect to lose an a grader and get a first rounder back, or lose a few b graders and get some second rounders we can package and trade for a first rounder in that draft?

[Fat Tony 5,090]

16 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Yes, future picks can be live traded.  But, can't trade any more future picks until we trade in a 2021 1st round pick, which is unlikely.

Pick trade up will be difficult for us because initially, not many clubs with pick #1-#5 will want to trade the out.  And if they do there will be plenty of competition with clubs, holding stronger hands that have said they want to trade up: 

• GWS (holding picks 10, 13, 15, and 20 and a full hand of 2021 picks).  They aggressively gave up trade value (in points) last year to get into the top 3 last.
• Collingwood (holding picks 14 and 16 and want to trade out their 2021 1st pick). 
• GCS (holding pick 5 and a full hand of 2021 picks).  They will be relying on Adel, North or Hawks to take their pick #5 and their future 1st.  GCS traded up aggressively last year and were willing to give up trade value (in points).

Each club will out-trump our holding (pick 18 and 19) for picks 1-5.

Unfortunately, that means heavy competition for Ess picks 6,7 or 8.  Good luck trying to get a reasonable deal from them or even a timely deal.  So I can't see us trading up higher than 10 which will slide to 13-16.

Not great news for us but that is my take of the lay of land.

How many picks are you expecting us to take? I assume we have players like Jordon on standby for either a rookie or senior spot depending on what’s left in the draft. 

[Lucifers Hero 38,985]

1 minute ago, Fat Tony said:

How many picks are you expecting us to take? I assume we have players like Jordon on standby for either a rookie or senior spot depending on what’s left in the draft. 

Apparently we only need to take one draftee and Mahoney has said we might keep a list spot vacant for future drafting (eg PSSP and mid season). 

So its hard to guess how many picks we will take.  I would think one or two and upgrade Lockhart with pick 89.  But it depends on whether we can trade up 18 and 19.  Or trade up 28 and 50.  Or some combo. 

I really doubt we will take 4 draftees (plus maybe Lockhart) so we will need to consolidate the picks we have somehow.  If we can't I can see us converting 2 of our picks to a future pick.

The picture will be a bit clearer once list and draft numbers are finalised and if we have some delistings in the coming weeks. 

[Fat Tony 5,090]

22 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Apparently we only need to take one draftee and Mahoney has said we might keep a list spot vacant for future drafting (eg PSSP and mid season). 

So its hard to guess how many picks we will take.  I would think one or two and upgrade Lockhart with pick 89.  But it depends on whether we can trade up 18 and 19.  Or trade up 28 and 50.  Or some combo. 

I really doubt we will take 4 draftees (plus maybe Lockhart) so we will need to consolidate the picks we have somehow.  If we can't I can see us converting 2 of our picks to a future pick.

The picture will be a bit clearer once list and draft numbers are finalised and if we have some delistings in the coming weeks. 

We will need multiple plans depending on how the draft plays out but I assumed we would only take 2 players. The last trade with the lions indicates we might take more. 

[Colm 1,948]

Picks 50,28 and 19 add up to 1898 points which is equal to pick 5. Anybody think that would be enough to tempt Essendon to part with pick 8?

[Lucifers Hero 38,985]

19 minutes ago, Colm said:

Picks 50,28 and 19 add up to 1898 points which is equal to pick 5. Anybody think that would be enough to tempt Essendon to part with pick 8?

Not if they can get 14 and 16 (2,228 pts) from Collingwood or 13 and 15 (2,324 pts) from GWS.  Not so much for the points value being better but they are much higher picks than ours.  And Ess hold an abundance of late picks:  6, 7, 8, 44, 77, 85, 87.

Because clubs only need to take 1 (or 2) draftees picks like #50 and higher will only really be of value to clubs wanting points for FS/NGA/Acad players. 

Edited November 15, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[Colm 1,948]

20 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Not if they can get 14 and 16 (2,228 pts) from Collingwood or 13 and 15 (2,324 pts) from GWS.  Not so much for the points value being better but they are much higher picks than ours.  And Ess hold an abundance of late picks:  6, 7, 8, 44, 77, 85, 87.

Because clubs only need to take 1 (or 2) draftees picks like #50 and higher will only really be of value to clubs wanting points for FS/NGA/Acad players. 

Yeah that’s a fair point. Going to be much more difficult for us to move up the order this year so, but given the amount of pick swaps we have pulled off over the last 2 drafts it would surprise me if we have finished swapping now. Will be interesting to see how the next 3 weeks play out. 

[Demon trucker 1,800]

20 hours ago, Turner said:

the trick is as far as we know it, the universe is endless in time and as it appears so is afl football so... why not trade out a future pick every single year and just forever be out by a year it works as long as the world keeps spinning (or they remove future pick trading ? )

Well from next year the NGA rules change totally, teams will not be able to pick these players in the top 10 if they are rated top 10 then any club can have them.

[Demon trucker 1,800]

1 hour ago, Colm said:

Picks 50,28 and 19 add up to 1898 points which is equal to pick 5. Anybody think that would be enough to tempt Essendon to part with pick 8?

For what reason , this thing about  valuing  draft picks because of the points is stupid, it only makes sense when a teams needs points for father sons, and NGA, Essendon have none. Turning top 10 picked into multiple late picks is just silly.

[Colm 1,948]

34 minutes ago, don't make me angry said:

For what reason , this thing about  valuing  draft picks because of the points is stupid, it only makes sense when a teams needs points for father sons, and NGA, Essendon have none. Turning top 10 picked into multiple late picks is just silly.

Didn’t we split a top 10 pick into 2 later picks last year. Which we then picked Pickett and Rivers with. We liked Pickett and he wasn’t going to go too 10 so by trading we got Rivers as well. Doesn’t seem that silly. 

[adonski 10,897]

Reckon Laurie is the go at pick 19 or 28 should we retain them, his tape even more impressive than Macrae imo

 

Edited November 15, 2020 by adonski

[Arrow 1,257]

42 minutes ago, adonski said:

Reckon Laurie is the go at pick 19 or 28 should we retain them, his tape even more impressive than Macrae imo

 

Wow thanks for sharing. The game against Gippsland his delivery into I50 was exceptional and from the highlights must've been close to BOG - a real difference with each possession. I often find these videos being nothing possessions from accumulators but this was really impressive. Great find Adonski, would be thrilled if I saw him name fall to us at one of our picks.