3 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

Why would I need to when you obviously know it all

I'll write slowly for you, because clearly you struggle:

I didn't claim not to be concerned with our current situation. The gif was intended to show how quickly Demonland goes into panic mode. That's all.

Move along now

 

 The whole "clearly you struggle" is just rude, and you have no idea of my personal circumstances.. so i suggest drop the unnecessary smart alec stuff, i was never rude or indicated that i am a know it all. I just made an assumption, it seems it was wrong and thats fair enough.

Hope you a have a nice night, try to chill out a bit and no hard feelings.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I know but I had to draw the line somewhere re the permutations. 

My point was that by leaving out the trade of our 2018 first round pick for Carlton's 2019 first round pick the Lever trade is not being correctly valued.

Yes but you are not correctly valuing either of the two trades and your way of viewing them is hyperbolic.  The Lever trade is nowhere near a trade of Lever for a top 10 and a top 5 pick.  The pure picks traded was Lever, picks 35 and 47 for picks 12 and 19.

What actually happened is most easily represented in two parts.  2017 draft we got Lever and Petty for Darcy Fogarty (FWIW I think we would have drafted Zac Bailey or Matthew Ling) and 2018 we forego the rights to pick 19(most likely would have taken Liam Stocker who was taken with that pick) in exchange for the ownership of pick 47 which we on traded to St Kilda to move up the draft.  

If we had done the trade of pick 19 with Carlton wed be needing to swap picks with them at this year's draft.  

 

 

Edited April 8, 20196 yr by goodoil

50 minutes ago, goodoil said:

Yes but you are not correctly valuing either of the two trades and your way of viewing them is hyperbolic.  The Lever trade is nowhere near a trade of Lever for a top 10 and a top 5 pick.  The pure picks traded was Lever, picks 35 and 47 for picks 12 and 19.

What actually happened is most easily represented in two parts.  2017 draft we got Lever and Petty for Darcy Fogarty (FWIW I think we would have drafted Zac Bailey or Matthew Ling) and 2018 we forego the rights to pick 19(most likely would have taken Liam Stocker who was taken with that pick) in exchange for the ownership of pick 47 which we on traded to St Kilda to move up the draft.  

If we had done the trade of pick 19 with Carlton wed be needing to swap picks with them at this year's draft. 

The post I originally responded stated our 2018 pick #16 was used for Mc Henry.  It wasn't.  It was #19 traded/swapped to Carlton.  That is simply fact.  It is a trade we could have done had we kept it. 

People look at trade value differently.  Some look at trade points.  I can't be bothered doing that to fully value the lever trade.  Not sure the value of pick #19' is simply a foregone right in 2018.  imv we won't know the full value of the Lever trade until this year's trade period.  But it isn't as simple as considering just the 'pure picks traded'.  btw, no hyperbole was intended.  I've edited my original post to indicate Adelaide traded their 2019 1st pick back to Carlton.

Edited April 8, 20196 yr by Lucifer's Hero

2 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Firstly to clarify:  #16 for McHenry was from Carlton in the McGovern trade.  It started life as Sydney's first round pick (#13) and slid to #16 because of matching bids beforehand. 

Our 2018 first round pick (slid to #19) Adelaide traded to Carlton during the live trade period for Carlton's 2019 first round pick, likely to be in the top 5.

Effectively, Lever cost us a top 5 pick (2019) and a top 10 pick (2017).  So, imv he is looking very expensive! 

So, as it stands I don't see our recruiting looking so great.

Edit:  Adelaide gave Carlton their 2019 first round pick in return for its first.  Even so, Lever still looks expensive.

Right now we are below Carlton on the ladder so we'd effectively have given them pick 19 and moved backwards from pick 1 to pick 3. Obviously I really hope we move ahead of Carlton but giving up pick 19 for a swap a year later might not be a good result for us.

It's silly to include that Carlton trade in the cost of Lever. He cost us picks 10 and 19, for him and later draft picks, leave it there. 

That's a good deal. I think the swap from 19 down in the 30's wasn't ideal and it required us doing well last year, but we took a risk and it has paid off.

If we wanted a high draft pick we could've kept the pick 6 we dealt Hogan for.

7 hours ago, Demon3 said:

I wasnt, but you be all defensive about it, maybe you should coach our backs. 

 

2 hours ago, Demon3 said:

 The whole "clearly you struggle" is just rude, and you have no idea of my personal circumstances.. so i suggest drop the unnecessary smart alec stuff, i was never rude or indicated that i am a know it all. I just made an assumption, it seems it was wrong and thats fair enough.

Hope you a have a nice night, try to chill out a bit and no hard feelings.

 

If we’d kept #6, Bailey Smith would be in red and blue. Interesting to see how he develops. 

11 hours ago, Demon3 said:

I love this Footy club and want them to do well every time they go one the ground, and i always think when they come off that they tried, win lose or draw.. and that's no different right now, i still love them, and i know the players are having a crack.

But it is time we prepare ourselves for a bottom 4 finish. there are mitigating circumstances i know, form and injuries are a real reason, it does affect some teams more than others, but we wont recover in time to make an assault on the top 8, i hope we do, but i think even the most optimistic among us will say its going to be really hard.

I watched the reserves yesterday really closely.. and without sounding like an alarmist, there were less than 2 redeeming features among that group. Harsh i know and we should give them time but if a 5ft 3 st gamer was the only reason to get a bit excited about then our problems are far more deep seated that we think.

Lever - unlucky with knee / May - Shocking start but can fight back - but our top end drafting again concerns me:

2018 - first selection - Tom Sparrow - Inside mid / pick 33 James Jordan - looks like Tom Sparrow / Pick 53 Nietsche - Knee reco / Pick 56 Marty Hore - Why did we need that sort of player? / pick 75 Toby Bedford - who knows??

2017 - pick 31 - Bayley Fritsch - nice player  / pick 37 Harrison Petty - strange selection at the time remains one now (lightning fast Jack petruccelle went next pick - currentl;y playing in premiership side) / Oscar Baker - outside winger - looks likely not a great choice 

2016 - pick 46 Mitch Hannan - Bulldogs reserves HFF player / pick 64 Dion Jonstone - Gone

Thats 3 years missing out on elite junior talent and the type of talent we need , pace on the outside.. .. and it will haunt us mark my words.. Because if we think Billy Stretch and Maynard and the wagner brothers and JKH and charlie spargo are the answers then as i say.. we should prepare ourselves.

 

 

I tend to agree and enough alarm bells where going off after round 1 for me to drop $150 @ $3.10 to miss the eight. Happy to lose and play finals,not sure about bottom four but plenty needs to go right to make finals from here and i dont think we have the deapth or firepower to make it.  Time will tell i guess.

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

If we’d kept #6, Bailey Smith would be in red and blue. Interesting to see how he develops. 

If we'd kept #6 we would be whinging about missing out on May & having to put up with another season of Froscar...with little relief in sight...

Edited April 8, 20196 yr by rjay

On 4/7/2019 at 10:26 AM, old dee said:

There were off field issues! Did Tmac kick 50. Then my error however we have not replaced Hogan's 50. We have different different views on Weid, if he cannot show more than he has in the first 3 games this year then IMO in ain't t there to show

Far too quick to basket Weide  and Tommy given a full season would have kicked 70 in last season.

Weide will improve as season goes on and and his accuracy is breathtaking looking at Hoges and others in our Forward line.

ANB plus no Fritsch forward Hannan and Jeffy are hurting the potential goal total also.

ANB needs a Casey recall and hard contested football and goal kicking accuracy practice.

in time our full team will/may emerge with Lockhart Chandler and Perry/Kelty and maybe Pruess occasionally and of course AVB and Hannan plus May and LeVer.

Much better balance and future and maybe no Jinesy or even Lewy.

Let's see over the next  next few weeks or months!

19 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Hindsight is wonderful but you need to look back a lot further than you are. 

Hawks dynasty was built on the 2001 and 04 drafts and topped up with Burgoyne Lake Hale and Mcevoy.  Cats was the 99 and 2001 drafts.

We are still paying for the poor drafting in the first 12 years of the noughties which killed our depth. Don't underestimate the importance of having a large amount of 8 to 10 + year AFL hardened players on your list

Eagles - Kennedy Darling Shuey Hurn Yeo Hutchings Vardy Masten Schofield Reddan Shepherd Gaff Cripps and Jetta.

Some of those players are very ordinary but have the bodies and experience to come in and fill a role allowing the youngster to flourish.

It's why you see sides like Eagles Cats Hawks Swans and Pies bounce back so quickly after 2 to 3 years out of contention. The continous development of their lists and evolution of player depth every year.

We are about 5 years into building what takes 8 to 10 to build into a long term powerhouse. That is why the injury list and drop off in form of experience is exposing our depth

Excellent post PSD.

The trouble is we have not recruited all that wisely IMO.

Had we done so then surely having our regular 22 tested for the first time in a while we would not have dropped so far (landslide!) off our better form in 2018.

Could this also be a price we are paying for having an aligned club in the VFL instead of our own?  Surely the Casey list players aren't exactly on the same page as the MFC ones playing there from a care factor / "play the MFC" way point of view!?

The Hawks were clearly mostly on the same page on Sunday, well drilled, committed at the contest.  Fleet of foot, running on top of the ground, baulking around our boys like witches hat's.  Hitting targets regularly and had burst speed/power off the mark from a half dozen or so on their list.  In comparison we looked ploddy, disorganised, not much burst speed / power off the mark and couldn't hit a barn door (in most cases) and just bombed away inside 50, not dissimilar to the seniors.

One could not help but be astonished at the difference in the finishing skill levels, the power & burst speed and general agility / speed with which the Hawks were able to link up and overlap off HB into forward 50 to find targets between the 2 clubs.

Was like watching a VFL team play an under 18 Junior club sprinkled with a few VFL level players and one or 2 from AFL.

The Hawks are clearly recruiting for power/burst speed (athletic types that can play a little) and some reasonable football skills then training them intensily with skills skills and drills to turn them into highly skilled professional powerful players (at VFL level) and under a specific Hawthorn method/system, with the idea some will eventually make the grade after a few years in the system and slot nicely into the senior system and way.

On the other hand Casey looks like a disorganised lottery with little power/burst speed (athleticism lacking) and pretty ordinary skills/footy smarts also, with a couple of individual exceptions doing their own good work (mostly alone).

We then rush players in who haven't been in OUR dissorganised amaturish system very long, assuming their is one at VFL level that resembles somethung similar to the seniors, and expect them to step up and perform, probably not completely understanding the manor and way in which they are expected to play at senior level until they've been in the system for a good block (if they survive that long!).

No wonder we are where we are with a few injuries etc in the off season.

Edited April 8, 20196 yr by Rusty Nails

16 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Could this also be a price we are paying for having an aligned club in the VFL instead of our own?  Surely the Casey list players aren't exactly on the same page as the MFC ones playing there from a care factor / "play the MFC" way point of view!?

The Hawks were clearly mostly on the same page on Sunday, well drilled, committed at the contest.

Nothing to do with an aligned club 'Rusty'

Hawthorn and Box Hill are also an alignment.

Maybe they do it better like they do most things and we could perhaps learn but they are an alignment non the less.

3 minutes ago, rjay said:

Nothing to do with an aligned club 'Rusty'

Hawthorn and Box Hill are also an alignment.

Maybe they do it better like they do most things and we could perhaps learn but they are an alignment non the less.

This is it.. a lot of Rusty's comments about recruitment and training at Hawthorn are valid. As you say not the alignment issue.

 

18 hours ago, GCDee said:

We have a young team stacked with talent... the reality is we wouldn't have too many players in our starting 22 which has completed 4+ pre seasons. To be frank a majority of our players aren't seasoned AFL players yet, we really cannot expect a team of superstars when half of them are still under 25, we will be inconsistent, our guys are still learning what it takes to be a professional and how to get the best out of themselves. 

Your point about the fail to develop our players is incredibly harsh, it's impossible to nail every single pick... Below is our top 4 picks from the previous 4 drafts. Highlighted are players many would agree are in the top 25-30 players on our list. 2018/2017 draftees are much too early to judge. With 3 duds on that list and 6 players still with potential to go along with 5 great players I am happy with that strike rate. These are also picks in years we we have been able to add in experienced players in, Lever, May, Melksham, Lewis & Hibberd who are all best 22. 

2015- OLIVER, WEID, KING, HULETT 

2016- HANNAN, JOHNSTONE (REST WAS TRADED) 

2017- SPARGO, FRITTA, PETTY, BAKER

2018- SPARROW, JORDON, NITSCHKE, HORE

 

Perhaps we need to give our team some time to gel, mature and condition to AFL and the toll it takes on young bodies? 

 

I am not suggesting that the errant recruiting is a universal problem; and, I agree with the talent that we have accumulated in general across the past few years. To my eye, it also appears that an inability to blossom as a recruit rather than to ferment as an also-ran struggler is prominent these days; I am wondering if there actually is a learning problem within our systems. Admittedly, it is impossible to strike it lucky or nail it with every recruit. Overall, I think we are operating in some deficit on this balance. 

2 hours ago, rjay said:

Nothing to do with an aligned club 'Rusty'

Hawthorn and Box Hill are also an alignment.

Maybe they do it better like they do most things and we could perhaps learn but they are an alignment non the less.

Thanks Rjay.  Yes their professionalism and general talent spotting seems a fair way ahead of us at the moment.

3 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Excellent post PSD.

The trouble is we have not recruited all that wisely IMO.

Had we done so then surely having our regular 22 tested for the first time in a while we would not have dropped so far (landslide!) off our better form in 2018.

Could this also be a price we are paying for having an aligned club in the VFL instead of our own?  Surely the Casey list players aren't exactly on the same page as the MFC ones playing there from a care factor / "play the MFC" way point of view!?

The Hawks were clearly mostly on the same page on Sunday, well drilled, committed at the contest.  Fleet of foot, running on top of the ground, baulking around our boys like witches hat's.  Hitting targets regularly and had burst speed/power off the mark from a half dozen or so on their list.  In comparison we looked ploddy, disorganised, not much burst speed / power off the mark and couldn't hit a barn door (in most cases) and just bombed away inside 50, not dissimilar to the seniors.

One could not help but be astonished at the difference in the finishing skill levels, the power & burst speed and general agility / speed with which the Hawks were able to link up and overlap off HB into forward 50 to find targets between the 2 clubs.

Was like watching a VFL team play an under 18 Junior club sprinkled with a few VFL level players and one or 2 from AFL.

The Hawks are clearly recruiting for power/burst speed (athletic types that can play a little) and some reasonable football skills then training them intensily with skills skills and drills to turn them into highly skilled professional powerful players (at VFL level) and under a specific Hawthorn method/system, with the idea some will eventually make the grade after a few years in the system and slot nicely into the senior system and way.

On the other hand Casey looks like a disorganised lottery with little power/burst speed (athleticism lacking) and pretty ordinary skills/footy smarts also, with a couple of individual exceptions doing their own good work (mostly alone).

We then rush players in who haven't been in OUR dissorganised amaturish system very long, assuming there is one at VFL level that resembles somethung similar to the seniors, and expect them to step up and perform, probably not completely understanding the manor and way in which they are expected to play at senior level until they've been in the system for a good block (if they survive that long!).

No wonder we are where we are with a few injuries etc in the off season.

 

14 hours ago, rjay said:

If we'd kept #6 we would be whinging about missing out on May & having to put up with another season of Froscar...with little relief in sight...

May was needed, and was worth around a top 10 pick.

On 4/8/2019 at 10:17 AM, Demon3 said:

I love this Footy club and want them to do well every time they go one the ground, and i always think when they come off that they tried, win lose or draw.. and that's no different right now, i still love them, and i know the players are having a crack.

But it is time we prepare ourselves for a bottom 4 finish. there are mitigating circumstances i know, form and injuries are a real reason, it does affect some teams more than others, but we wont recover in time to make an assault on the top 8, i hope we do, but i think even the most optimistic among us will say its going to be really hard.

I watched the reserves yesterday really closely.. and without sounding like an alarmist, there were less than 2 redeeming features among that group. Harsh i know and we should give them time but if a 5ft 3 st gamer was the only reason to get a bit excited about then our problems are far more deep seated that we think.

Lever - unlucky with knee / May - Shocking start but can fight back - but our top end drafting again concerns me:

2018 - first selection - Tom Sparrow - Inside mid / pick 33 James Jordan - looks like Tom Sparrow / Pick 53 Nietsche - Knee reco / Pick 56 Marty Hore - Why did we need that sort of player? / pick 75 Toby Bedford - who knows??

2017 - pick 31 - Bayley Fritsch - nice player  / pick 37 Harrison Petty - strange selection at the time remains one now (lightning fast Jack petruccelle went next pick - currentl;y playing in premiership side) / Oscar Baker - outside winger - looks likely not a great choice 

2016 - pick 46 Mitch Hannan - Bulldogs reserves HFF player / pick 64 Dion Jonstone - Gone

Thats 3 years missing out on elite junior talent and the type of talent we need , pace on the outside.. .. and it will haunt us mark my words.. Because if we think Billy Stretch and Maynard and the wagner brothers and JKH and charlie spargo are the answers then as i say.. we should prepare ourselves.

 

 

I also think we are in for a huge reality check in the years to come AM sadly.  Our results should improve as we get into the 2nd half with the better players returning but given they're coming off a very interrupted pre-season i don't feel their impact will be as significant as some might be hoping for.

Goody and Co. have a mountain of work to do in the next few seasons and would want to be getting most of their selections from here on the money or we are looking at a significant renovation of our list.

We could have got pick 5 for Hogan and take Rozzee. Looks a player. May was a silly trade. Paid overs for someone not very good. Baffling.

Overs for Lever who had already had an ACL history, baffling. We were in a great position to continue drafting quality kids whilst restocking our KP back roles through free agency and mature recruits.

We couldve and shouldve had a dynasty. Roos must be kicking himself.