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Farewell Jesse Hogan

Devil In Disguise
in Melbourne Demons

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37 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO.

In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick.

I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years.

Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.

That’s fair enough, but if we say want to deal ourselves high into this years draft how would we orchestrate that? 

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    54 minutes ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

    What a load of garbage. They wouldn’t bother giving Jesse a tour of Fremantle if Melbourne hadn’t given them the all clear. The reality is we can just say no deal and walk away at any stage. 

    Of course they would. If he was even a 5% chance of going to freo they would happily try and give him a tour to get him over the line. Same as GWS giving Dusty a tour when he was on the fence. 

    I actually think Jesse may be genuinely on the fence.. or maybe he's just waiting to get out of the country before the announcement is made

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    50 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

    I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO.

    In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick.

    I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years.

    Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.

    I would be concerned taking Freo's 2019 first rounder.

    With Hogan and Lobb, they have some real talent on their list and could make a huge jump up the ladder.

    Fyfe, Hogan, Lobb, Brayshaw, Cerra, both Hills, Walters, Sheridan, Wilson, Blakley, Langdon are all good/great players, plus some i don't know or may come out of no where to have a big 2019.

    Edited by Lord Neville X Flash

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    1 hour ago, Demonland said:

     

    Its a sad state of affairs when stating the obvious is news.

    McClure the [censored] dosent agree but thats reallyaays it all #noidea

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    49 minutes ago, ProDee said:

    I disagree on Melbourne's desire.

    In my view it's crystal clear that Melbourne are driving this.  They could easily quash any talk of a trade, but it feels like to me the Dees are almost encouraging Hogan to explore his options.

    They've decided May is the missing piece that could secure a flag in 2019, they rate McDonald and Weideman as a forward combination, and think they can get adequate compensation from Freo.

    Just my take, but I think Melbourne are more 60-70% in their desire to do a deal on Hogan.

    Yep. Clear to me too we're driving this.

    I expect Freo are posturing RE: Neale being worth more than a first rounder to placate their supporters when they have to give up two first rounders up for Hogan.

    Still, bizarre tactics from Freo given they in turn undermine their own negotiations over Jesse's worth. Unless, of course, a deal has already been struck between us and then it becomes merely an attempt to save face with their restless supporter base.

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    10 hours ago, Skuit said:

    Cheers Faulty. I told my boss to go [censored] himself this week and ended up with a far better contract - because he apparently dug my new fired-up emotional side (which is huge coming from a Dutchman). I must be on a roll - Skuit 2.0. Hopefully the MFC will adopt the same posture. 

    Massive step of assimilation mate: the realisation that the best way to get in the good graces of a Dutchman is to give them as much [censored] as possible.

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    • Thanks 1

    71 games in 6 years for various reasons (and yeah i know the reasons) making it approx 12 games per year or 52.6%

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    5 minutes ago, Lord Neville X Flash said:

    With Hogan and Lobb, they have some real talent on their list and could make a huge jump up the ladder.

     

    I don't think they'll get Lobb, I think he'll go to the Eagles.

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    7 minutes ago, Dockett 32 said:

    That’s fair enough, but if we say want to deal ourselves high into this years draft how would we orchestrate that? 

    We could only trade up if the holders of top picks are willing to trade but we have live pick trading this year, so this should be easier. GCS will almost certainly hold picks 2 & 3 and the SA clubs might look to deal given two of the top prospects are from SA. And Carlton may be willing to part with pick 1 to GWS to get Shiel. There are also a number of FS and Acadamy players available, so there will be the ability to package picks to move up or down the draft.

    In saying this, I think we have recently shown good ability to draft well with lower picks. so I don't think we should be scared of trading Hogan for a combination of lower picks as long as they aggregate points equate to our valuation of Hogan. If anything, a good drafting team is able to produce greater value with lower picks.

    Freo currently hold #5 (which will move to #6) and nothing else of value this year.

     

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    They come out with this Neale shizen the day after Hogan paid em a visit. Maybe they now think Hogan will be a no go next year. Don"t know.

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    1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

    Goodwin was pretty strong that he wanted Hogan to stay when he was On the Couch recently. Goodwin may have changed his mind since then, but it may also be that Hogan doesn't want to extend his contract and we are trying to make the most of it by being open to trading him this year.

    Yeah, but the two aren't mutually exclusive. In my view, the club is driving this because Hogan has refused to extend past next year.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we'd all initially put off contract talks until the year of the season. Once we lost to WC over in Perth, our list management team sat down with Hogan and his reps, and asked him whether he'd extend. When he refused, we encouraged him to explore his options.

    Edited by A F

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    1 minute ago, dl4e said:

    They come out with this Neale shizen the day after Hogan paid em a visit. Maybe they now think Hogan will be a no go next year. Don"t know.

    Thinking the same. Maybe it was a thanks but no thanks meeting after he'd seen and heard everything. Or maybe it is just fugazi from the Purples to stop 24 hours of vitriol on talkback. Maybe it's that the want a 2nd round pick for Neale to keep them in the top end of the draft.

    What I can guess at that is that if they lose Neale and don't get Hogan then Lyon and a lot of his back up will be looking for new jobs around June. That can only help in our negotiations with them or Jesse

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    @Chook in Perth

    What's the latest ?

    Freo getting skittish on their long planned deal.. months afterwards ;)

    Freo just playing up as expected ?

    Too much hooch in the Dockers boardroom ?

    Someone just forgot to take their meds ?

    Strange lot Freo ;)

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    The cold reality is Freo’s list is average, one of their best mids wants out, and to get guaranteed talent in (Hogan) they’ll need to trade out of the first round of this years draft, further exacerbating their list issues. 

    Theyre between a rock and a hard place, and I scratch my head wondering why Jesse might want to join them there.

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    2 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

    @Chook in Perth

    What's the latest ?

    Freo getting skittish on their long planned deal.. months afterwards ;)

    Freo just playing up as expected ?

    Too much hooch in the Dockers boardroom ?

    Someone just forgot to take their meds ?

    Strange lot Freo ;)

    very strange, bub. they've been working on this deal for over 4 years but still want to play funny buggers

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    17 minutes ago, grazman said:

    I don't think they'll get Lobb, I think he'll go to the Eagles.

    So the Eagles and Lobb need too get a rattle-on...  to get that deal done and dusted.

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    Jesse will be at Freo, they’ve wanted him since before he was drafted, all over red rover.

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    15 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

    The cold reality is Freo’s list is average, one of their best mids wants out, and to get guaranteed talent in (Hogan) they’ll need to trade out of the first round of this years draft, further exacerbating their list issues. 

    Theyre between a rock and a hard place, and I scratch my head wondering why Jesse might want to join them there.

    Nothing to do with chasing leather around is why.

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    3 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

    KY....maybe

    Image result for whitesnake slide it in album

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    53 minutes ago, A F said:

    Yep. Clear to me too we're driving this.

    I expect Freo are posturing RE: Neale being worth more than a first rounder to placate their supporters when they have to give up two first rounders up for Hogan.

    Still, bizarre tactics from Freo given they in turn undermine their own negotiations over Jesse's worth. Unless, of course, a deal has already been struck between us and then it becomes merely an attempt to save face with their restless supporter base.

    I think this is the most likely scenario and Freo are trying to get some assets together to try and pay and still have something left over

    I hope in the initial meeting we asked for Fyfe

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    Of course.. could all just be theatrics. 

     

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    1 minute ago, beelzebub said:

    Of course.. could all just be theatrics. 

     

    Bollocks. Our guys don't do that.

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    1 minute ago, jnrmac said:

    Bollocks. Our guys don't do that.

    You realise I was referring to Freo don't you.

     

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    2 hours ago, WAGSLEFTFOOT said:

    "We're not close to having a conversation with melbourne at the moment" - Rosich

    I dont mind either way if he stays or goes, however i think he is genuinely just taking his sweet sweet sweet sweet time in making up his mind

     

    2 hours ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

    What a load of garbage. They wouldn’t bother giving Jesse a tour of Fremantle if Melbourne hadn’t given them the all clear. The reality is we can just say no deal and walk away at any stage. 

     

    2 hours ago, McQueen said:

     Because Melbourne thinks we’re being stupid and doesn’t want to lower themselves to our state of ineptitude. 

    Seriously? If Jesse decides he wants to go then they'll have a conversation. Not before.

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