Farewell Jesse Hogan

[ManDee 7,124]

22 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

I will be extremely disappointed if MFC let a potential Super Star slip through our fingers, what ever we got for him would never be enough...........!!!!!!!!!!!!??

When you say things like this it devalues whatever you say. If Freo offered 5 + 6 + Cerra + Brayshaw + Fyfe +Neale + next years first pick + still never enough? There is a point that everyone & everything is on the table. I understand that you value him highly but that value must have a price.

[Moonshadow 17,556]

1 minute ago, jnrmac said:

Everyone needs to chill. He hasn't met with the club yet.

It's all clickbait at this point

He had his exit meeting with the FD earlier in the week.

Apparently he meets his manager today.

A couple of notable posters with good sources have said he's decided to leave.

We will know his intentions soon enough.

[jnrmac 19,905]

Just now, Mondê said:

TBH $5m sounds spot on. I'd say that's a realistic ballpark figure for what Freo would throw at Hogan. The current landscape of player movement involves lengthy multi year deals... Buddy to Sydney opened a can of worms that won't be closed any time soon.

You miss the point. For a start he pays tax at 49% and he pays a management company min of 2.5%. No one is dangling a $5m cheque.

And Melbourne will negotiate a decent offer - that may not match another offer but would minimise the difference again to, say $100k a year after tax. Then there are the intangibles.............

[jnrmac 19,905]

1 minute ago, Moonshadow said:

He had his exit meeting with the FD earlier in the week.

Apparently he meets his manager today.

A couple of notable posters with good sources have said he's decided to leave.

We will know his intentions soon enough.

Agreed and FWIW I think It's all bunk. He stays.

[Mondê 525]

1 minute ago, jnrmac said:

You miss the point. For a start he pays tax at 49% and he pays a management company min of 2.5%. No one is dangling a $5m cheque.

And Melbourne will negotiate a decent offer - that may not match another offer but would minimise the difference again to, say $100k a year after tax. Then there are the intangibles.............

Fair point.

Either way, his decision won't be financially driven.

[Dr. Gonzo 23,723]

9 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

He will not have a $5m cheque put in front of him. Don't over-egg the pudding.

You're right. It's probably closer to $6m.

[Macca 16,645]

10 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

Jeezus. There's been a draft in the AFL as long as I've been alive.

Yeah as we've spoken about before, the early recruiting age plays havoc with drafting and makes it more hit and miss. The comparison to NFL drafting for example, is a good one. First rounders get traded with a heavy value, and rightly so, you're picking up players who are far closer to known quantities. Things like that are what we can learn (as fans) when it comes to assessing a player's value in terms of picks.

Completely agree on the 3Xtop 10... It won't happen of course. But I agree with the price. I was saying 2 firsts and a super quick skilled midfielder as my price... only because I want some sort of known quantity as we're in our window now.

2 early picks could equal 1 bust whilst the other pick could take 3-5 years to bear fruit.

I prefer to keep things real and I do not want the club to lose out

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

3 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

a digression but can you be drafted by an NFL club outside the college system? If so why do the top players play for nothing for three years. Many of the "name" basketballers now seem to bypass College.

Thanks

I'm not a basketball guy unfortunately, but they have uber strict rules about how and when players get drafted. It's in the system that no player can take handouts (even things like free t shirts and pizzas) while they're at College. It's policed really strictly and impressively (The film: The Blind Side goes into it a little). In fact a lot of College players play College and never catch on at professional level because they find working for a paycheck doesn't fulfil them. Most NFL purists would say College football is better to watch than NFL. And to some degree I agree.

In terms of being drafted outside the College system, yes. You can be picked up past a certain age. My team, the Eagles, just picked up Jordan Mailata who used to play for the Rabbitohs in the NRL but was considered a bit too bulky. He's an absolute physical specimen and has already caught on, and looks like having a career in a really important position. So it does happen. But TBH, it's the richest league in the world. If they can find difference makers anywhere outside the draft system, it's rare, and they tend to be their equivalent of our "rookies." They're alled "undrafted free agents." Come on over to "Other Sports" Forum and join in on the tipping. It's a growing thread.

2 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Everyone needs to chill. He hasn't met with the club yet.

It's all clickbait at this point

Surely you can't ignore the amount of smoke this time. If he just came out and signed, saying "I dunno what the fuss was about, I was never leaving the club"... wouldn't that surprise you? 

[Wiseblood 24,637]

3 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

He had his exit meeting with the FD earlier in the week.

Apparently he meets his manager today.

A couple of notable posters with good sources have said he's decided to leave.

We will know his intentions soon enough.

The exit meeting is overlooked a bit in all this. From all reports the idea of him being traded wasn't even broached during that meeting from either side. Then it comes out Tuesday that he is open to a move, even though some suggest he is meeting his management today about it. What would have changed from the exit meeting to Tuesday morning, especially if he didn't ask to be traded? 

There is so much info flying around at the minute. I can't wait for either the club or Jesse to either confirm or deny it so we can move on to the next step. 

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

1 minute ago, Wiseblood said:

The exit meeting is overlooked a bit in all this. From all reports the idea of him being traded wasn't even broached during that meeting from either side. Then it comes out Tuesday that he is open to a move, even though some suggest he is meeting his management today about it. What would have changed from the exit meeting to Tuesday morning, especially if he didn't ask to be traded? 

There is so much info flying around at the minute. I can't wait for either the club or Jesse to either confirm or deny it so we can move on to the next step. 

The silence is deafening, isn't it. Usually when these stories get released, the club reacts inside of 24 hours to squash any scuttlebutt. Not this time though.

[jnrmac 19,905]

Just now, Dappa Dan said:

Surely you can't ignore the amount of smoke this time. If he just came out and signed, saying "I dunno what the fuss was about, I was never leaving the club"... wouldn't that surprise you? 

When the smoke is the media vultures like McClure, Ralph and co I can ignore it quite easily. @Moonshadow is right though, we'll know soon enough....

[Sir Why You Little 36,670]

2 minutes ago, Mondê said:

Fair point.

Either way, his decision won't be financially driven.

No it won’t. People never factor in Tax thresholds. 

If Jesse goes to the Shockers it will be because he wants to go home. 

How many trips back to Perth has he been given?

I am sure Jesse loves the MFC and the people in it. I don’t think he has ever settled into the City of Melbourne

[Dr. Gonzo 23,723]

6 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

He had his exit meeting with the FD earlier in the week.

Apparently he meets his manager today.

A couple of notable posters with good sources have said he's decided to leave.

We will know his intentions soon enough.

I'm not doubting them but I'd love to know how they are sure of his intentions before he's even met his manager? Maybe the club has spoken to him already and given him permission to tell Freo it's a goer? How do journos know what gets discussed in exit interviews? 

If there was nothing to this the club and/or Hogan would've come out to say something already. The fact there has been nada for 3 days says there's something cooking and he's gone it just needs to be worked out between the clubs.

[jnrmac 19,905]

Just now, Dappa Dan said:

The silence is deafening, isn't it. Usually when these stories get released, the club reacts inside of 24 hours to squash any scuttlebutt. Not this time though.

The club has to be tight lipped at this time. There is so much garbage being put out there by 'journos' that have to fill column inches. If they responded to every wacky rumour they would need more staff.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

2 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

When the smoke is the media vultures like McClure, Ralph and co I can ignore it quite easily. @Moonshadow is right though, we'll know soon enough....

That's a good point re: the journos... I think though it's now everyone. Even the respected ones are falling in line.

That said, this has been alive for 3 days now... so it's still sort of early.

Does say a lot though that it's drowning out a lot of other trade talk and even drowning out the GF media.

[Demons11 6,718]

4 hours ago, SFebes said:

We beat WCE, GWS, Geel and HAW without Hogan, we've got to remember that also. His record against the better teams was poor.

In fairness the whole teams record against the better teams was poor

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

2 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

The club has to be tight lipped at this time. There is so much garbage being put out there by 'journos' that have to fill column inches. If they responded to every wacky rumour they would need more staff.

I don't buy that at all. If there's one thing that's always been consistent about Jesse (aside from his footy) it's that rumours pop up consistently and the club comments on them consistently. Be it at a presser, or even post match when Goody is ambushed.

That's the way I see it anyway. But we'll see... Secretly of course, I'm glad you're in opposition. lol

[Superunknown 4,074]

10 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

You miss the point. For a start he pays tax at 49% and he pays a management company min of 2.5%. No one is dangling a $5m cheque.

And Melbourne will negotiate a decent offer - that may not match another offer but would minimise the difference again to, say $100k a year after tax. Then there are the intangibles.............

First time I've ever seen mgt fees and marginal tax rates come into it.

For those amongst us interested in comparing for-like and not at all interested in delving into management fees and whether a player has structured their tax affairs so as to minimise their tax burder (e.g. JH Management Pty Ltd HQd Singapore providing marketing services to JH Nominees Trust HQd in Grand Caymans and so on), can we stick to headline rates please?

On your last point, I think it would be more about locking him in long term AND getting close to any other offer rather than just minimising the difference (which I reckon was probably implied in your answer anyway).

[daisycutter 29,343]

85 pages and sadly i am none the wiser

[Superunknown 4,074]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

You're right. It's probably closer to $6m.

Or 7. 6 x 1.2 or 7 x 1.

(Less 49% tax and management fees of course and relocation expenses)

[DubDee 24,454]

36 minutes ago, number 27 said:

so where do we find the 47 goals that he kicked this year? my concern is that we will be 282 points worse off, brings us well back on %. we give these 282 points to Fremantle and it brings them into contention for the bottom part of the 8.

if he wasn't injured he would have likely kicked 60 goals for the year and I would expect 70+ next year

Weid showed very little in his first couple of years and played one great game a couple of decent games.  He now shows promise but we cannot bank of him playing 22 games next year, he could be anything or a flash in the pan

losing Hogan will have some short term pain for sure.

[Mondê 525]

What happens if one of Weid or TMac suffer a serious injury next? What KPF depth do we have? 

[SFebes 4,860]

41 minutes ago, number 27 said:

so where do we find the 47 goals that he kicked this year? my concern is that we will be 282 points worse off, brings us well back on %. we give these 282 points to Fremantle and it brings them into contention for the bottom part of the 8.

Fremantle are not the basket case we think they are, they are a bigger club than MFC

two years from now he will kick 100 goals in a season  

it will set us back, no doubt. keep at all cost. if we can....

47 goals doesnt have to come from 1 player. Lets say, 30 from Weid, a full season from TMAC might net another 10, Spargo may kick 20, Petracca may improve his goalkicking, Gawn may rest forward more with Preuss etc. We may lose some firepower, but we may also strengthen our backline, we will find a way I'm sure.

[DubDee 24,454]

2 minutes ago, Mondê said:

What happens if one of Weid or TMac suffer a serious injury next? What KPF depth do we have? 

we are fked.

Suddenly O Mac is training with the forwards!!  :-0

[beelzebub 23,200]

8 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

The silence is deafening, isn't it. Usually when these stories get released, the club reacts inside of 24 hours to squash any scuttlebutt. Not this time though.

And the most noticeable silence is from....... Jesse.

He's not staying.... otherwise he could have easily said so and put this all to bed ages ago.

People need to look beyond the advertised mail. It's irrelevant...meetings etc. 

We have these things called phones. Quite clever devices in told. Everything else .. EVERYTHING ...is for show.