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Ladder predictor

SFebes
in Melbourne Demons

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I think in order to be serious about finals, we do need to have more wins against top-4 teams. So, with that in mind, if North win and Hawthorn lose by big margins, that'll add a win-vs-top-8 for us.

Really, all it takes is for North and Essendon to win a couple more, while Port and Hawthorn fade out, and our credibility for finals will climb right up without us even having to win any more games!

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    8 hours ago, sue said:

    And what action taken by our supporters would have made any difference?  Microwaving membership cards?

    Personally while I hang onto just a thread of hope for this year, I think the future looks bright.  All I ask is a competitive team and we seem to have one now.  Placing all one's hopes in terms of a flag is a recipe for disappointment.  After all, crude statistics says a team will win a flag once in every 18 years.  A couple of sigma on that will mean no flag in a lifetime is quite likely. 

    Feel free to attribute our lack of success to my attitude. I revel in my unexpected powers.

    I was joking sue.

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    18 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

     

    Would be interesting to see every team's record vs the sides not in the 8.

    From what I can see, we've only dropped 3 games against teams currently outside, for an aggregate of 7 points.

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    18 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

     

    It says we’ve lost to the teams above us on the ladder - isn’t that why they’re above us on the ladder? As grim as that looks, as the 7th-ish ranked team, I’m not going to jump off a bridge when presenting with a stat that shows we’ve lost games against the 1-6 ranked teams. That’s kinda how it’s supposed to work.

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    9 hours ago, binman said:

    I was joking sue.

    Happy to hear that.

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    2 hours ago, Nasher said:

    It says we’ve lost to the teams above us on the ladder - isn’t that why they’re above us on the ladder? As grim as that looks, as the 7th-ish ranked team, I’m not going to jump off a bridge when presenting with a stat that shows we’ve lost games against the 1-6 ranked teams. That’s kinda how it’s supposed to work.

    It's about ppl extrapolating wins against weaker sides into us being flag contenders. Some of the stuff written after our 6 wins in a row was plain embarrassing.

    We will never win finals consistently until we fix our leaky defence. And we should have had that fixed by now. After all, Roos started the defensive mantra yet we are still one of the easiest sides to score against once the ball goes inside our back 50.

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    The slump in form from Sydney and a win on the road v a resurgent Adelaide has changed things around a bit IMO. We can finish as high as 2nd and we could also miss the 8. Anxiety to continue for a while yet.

     

     

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    1    Richmond    18    137.0
    2    West Coast    15    118.5
    3    Collingwood    15    117.6
    4    GWS        14    113.8 (draw)
    5    Melbourne    14    125.7
    6    Geelong        14    118.5
    7    Port Adelaide    14    112.1
    8    Sydney        13    107.5
        -----------------------------
    9    Hawthorn    12    117.5
    10    North Melbourne    12    109.6
    11    Essendon    12    102.9
    12    Adelaide    12    100.8

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    1 hour ago, MSFebey said:

    1    Richmond    18    137.0
    2    West Coast    15    118.5
    3    Collingwood    15    117.6
    4    GWS        14    113.8 (draw)
    5    Melbourne    14    125.7
    6    Geelong        14    118.5
    7    Port Adelaide    14    112.1
    8    Sydney        13    107.5
        -----------------------------
    9    Hawthorn    12    117.5
    10    North Melbourne    12    109.6
    11    Essendon    12    102.9
    12    Adelaide    12    100.8

    W1 v Syd at the G - delicious! 

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    On 7/30/2018 at 6:58 AM, MSFebey said:

    The slump in form from Sydney and a win on the road v a resurgent Adelaide has changed things around a bit IMO. We can finish as high as 2nd and we could also miss the 8. Anxiety to continue for a while yet.

     

     

    Is it ever otherwise ?

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    • Author

    Update rolling predictor

     

    1  RICH 18-4 138%

    2  WCE 16-6 120%

    3  HAW 15-7 121.8%

    4  COLL 15-7 118.2%

    5  GWS 14-7-1 114.4%

    6  MELB 14-8 125.8%

    7  PORT 14-8 113.2%

    8  GEEL 13-9 116.3%

    ----------------------------------------------

    NORTH 13-9 109.7%

    SYD 12-10 105.9%

    ADEL 12-10 101.9%

    Edited by MSFebey

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    ive still got us finishing 10th. 

    i can't see us beating sydney, wce or gws. 1 win against the gold coast and that's it. sadly, the loss to geelong ended our season

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    3 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

    ive still got us finishing 10th. 

    i can't see us beating sydney, wce or gws. 1 win against the gold coast and that's it. sadly, the loss to geelong ended our season

    You are assuming our form won’t improve any further this season and buying the talk we can never beat a top 8 side. 

    Edited by america de cali

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    3 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

    ive still got us finishing 10th. 

    i can't see us beating sydney, wce or gws. 1 win against the gold coast and that's it. sadly, the loss to geelong ended our season

    I just did that scenario and also got 10th if we lose those 3 games.

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    7 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

    ive still got us finishing 10th. 

    i can't see us beating sydney, wce or gws. 1 win against the gold coast and that's it. sadly, the loss to geelong ended our season

    Gold Coast is Gold Coast. Win.
    Sydney couldn't win a clearance to save themselves. We dominate teams out of the centre. Win.
    West Coast will be missing Kennedy by all reports and are a soft contested side. We dominate contested ball. Win.
    GWS is a massive test but it's at our home ground and they'll likely have 3rd sewn up. We'll be playing for top 4 and redemption after last year. Win.

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    6 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

    I just did that scenario and also got 10th if we lose those 3 games.

    I still think other games around us may show up a few surprises

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    2 minutes ago, jumbo returns said:

    I still think other games around us may show up a few surprises

    If we lose 3 from here we won't make it regardless of what others do I don't think mate, I'll take a looksie. 12 wins won't be enough and a side with 13 will most likely miss out too.

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    • Thanks 1

    We are in more less the same position at this stage as last season when we then came home with 3 so called gimmie games and blew it. This season we are under no illusion the last 3 games are gimmies. They will all be tough. We will be good enough or not.

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    If we can't beat Sydney, who are awful, we don't deserve to play finals.

    I'm relaxed either way.

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    9 minutes ago, Chook said:

    Gold Coast is Gold Coast. Win.
    Sydney couldn't win a clearance to save themselves. We dominate teams out of the centre. Win.
    West Coast will be missing Kennedy by all reports and are a soft contested side. We dominate contested ball. Win.
    GWS is a massive test but it's at our home ground and they'll likely have 3rd sewn up. We'll be playing for top 4 and redemption after last year. Win.


    Oh gosh, its people like you that got everyone ahead of themselves last season. And people like you that never learnt the tough lessons from last season. WCE in west coast is definitely no chance. GWS will be the in form team in the comp. Sydney are beatable at the G but the dees don't instil me with any confidence (and rightly so) against good teams. We haven't beaten top 8 teams all season and now you want us to win 3 in a row? We won't be favourites in any of these games and I think 10th is where we will finish and once again, only ourselves to blame. Gawns shot against the cats, the loss against stkilda, and the after the siren loss to the cats sealed our fate. 

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    Yep if we can't beat top 4 teams let alone top 8 teams, then don't even think about premierships.

    Great opportunity for the club and the players. Don't want to rely on other results, back yourselves in Dees!

     

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    21 minutes ago, america de cali said:

    You are assuming our form won’t improve any further this season and buying the talk we can never beat a top 8 side. 

    In fairness it’s not really talk, we haven’t beaten much this year. North and Adelaide are our best wins. Couldn’t beat port, Geelong, tigers, hawks, pies

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    4 minutes ago, DubDee said:

    In fairness it’s not really talk, we haven’t beaten much this year. North and Adelaide are our best wins. Couldn’t beat port, Geelong, tigers, hawks, pies

    Hawks and Pies were shocking losses

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    4 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

    We won't be favourites in any of these games 

    Seriously, cheer up. First you said it was the St Kilda loss that ended our season, now it’s the Cats loss. Your negativity is constantly on display, it’s like you want the club to fail and for the record the odds for next week are as follows. 

    Dees $1.45 Sydney $2.75

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