Ladder predictor

[DeleteUser 638]

38 minutes ago, SFebey said:

Cats, Adelaide, Swans, Eagles. A win v GC and 50/50 v GWS.

Yikes!

I dunno about the Swans at the G. I mean we could beat them but it's MFC, so we could lose by 37.

 

I mean, we could feasibly lose every game from here bar the GCS. Very feasibly.

[SFebes 4,884]

36 minutes ago, timbo said:

Yikes!

I dunno about the Swans at the G. I mean we could beat them but it's MFC, so we could lose by 37.

 

I mean, we could feasibly lose every game from here bar the GCS. Very feasibly.

We can win every game and we can lose every game, it's just which Melbourne turns up! I'm not as confident as others and have seen enough this year to warrant that opinion, however I do know our best can go all the way. It's going to be a cracker end of season for all sides if this weekend is anything to go by. Fingers crossed

Edited July 16, 2018 by SFebey

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

57 minutes ago, timbo said:

WHo do you have us losing to?

I honestly can't bring myself to trust us to win (any of) Cats, Adelaide, Swans, Eagles. I think we win GCS and GWS.

I think GWS are starting to look ominous. They are starting to get their best players back and will should be firing by Rnd 23. I can actually see them getting on a roll and doing a Richmond.

[jackaub 1,402]

4 minutes ago, FarNorthernD said:

I think GWS are starting to look ominous. They are starting to get their best players back and will should be firing by Rnd 23. I can actually see them getting on a roll and doing a Richmond.

Similarly the Dees are on a roll I'm hoping it continues 

[Bitter but optimistic 22,289]

A few weeks ago I predicted 14 wins for us but that included a hopeful victory against Port and a shoe in against the Saints. 

We've got some work to do. However, what gives me optimism is that some recent other game results have worked in our favour. I'm hoping the trend of  surprise or upset results continues.

Provided of course we are not the victim of one!

[Little Goffy 14,794]

Well, the squggle auto-tipper has us grinding out way through the final six rounds with games against 5 fellow finalists, then hosting a home eliminatino final against geelong, then most likely playing Sydney in Sydney and West Coast in Perth for the the chance to play Richmond at the 'G.

I'm just comforted to know we are set for the official all time most epic premiership run in AFL history.

[Ouch! 2,276]

Great end to the season coming up, I agree with a lot of comments here stating that we could win or lose 5 of the 6 games remaining depending on who turns up.

However I think that is because there are still a lot CURRENTLY in contention. For instance if Adelaide lose to Brisbane this week, which could occur given Brisbane's form. If that happens expect to see a few players put into cotton wool. Adelaide are very keen to get the best outcome from the draft this year.

If they are out of contention next week,... suddenly the game against us is easier.

It's definitely a season where you can only focus on one week at a time. 2 games covering 3rd to 10th. 

[DeleteUser 638]

50 minutes ago, Ouch! said:

Great end to the season coming up, I agree with a lot of comments here stating that we could win or lose 5 of the 6 games remaining depending on who turns up.

However I think that is because there are still a lot CURRENTLY in contention. For instance if Adelaide lose to Brisbane this week, which could occur given Brisbane's form. If that happens expect to see a few players put into cotton wool. Adelaide are very keen to get the best outcome from the draft this year.

If they are out of contention next week,... suddenly the game against us is easier.

It's definitely a season where you can only focus on one week at a time. 2 games covering 3rd to 10th. 

Depending on how you do the ladder predictor, I had the bombers up to 4th at one stage with some wins

[Supermercado 2,802]

Need to win four more I reckon - Gold Coast + any two of Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast + GWS. If the teams around us suffered a spectacular Hawthorn vs Brisbane blowout (x2) it would certainly help. Next two weeks are crucial, if we lose both then shut the gate.

Edited July 16, 2018 by Supermercado

[Diamond_Jim 12,721]

11 minutes ago, Supermercado said:

Need to win four more I reckon - Gold Coast + any two of Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast + GWS. If the teams around us suffered a spectacular Hawthorn vs Brisbane blowout (x2) it would certainly help. Next two weeks are crucial, if we lose both then shut the gate.

if we need to win 4 we are in trouble.

Not saying it cannot be done but unlikely.

Frankly winning 4 would be a great outcome. Our post bye draw was always horrible but our inability to beat teams in 50/50 games has been what has killed us. Strange because in years gone by it was our flakiness against lower teams that cost us.

I can see three more wins at best. If we win 4 or 5 we will be going into the finals on a real roll.

With our high percentage 13 wins should do it easily unless we suffer three terrible blow outs.

[radar 1,866]

Remember last year when prevailing sentiment after Brisbane win was “we’re IN”. 

Last Q of Brisbane game we get to 22 points and I think “this is where good sides put the foot down and win by 50”. 

 

No no sooner had that stupid thought synapsed, Hipwood and co go BANG, BANG, BANG and we’re fighting in a one kick ball game. 

Portent of R23. 

Seen it too often. This is Melbourne. 

[Bonkers 994]

We have only scored below 90 points three times this season. If we defend well we have a very good chance of winning 3 of the remaining games. 

[Delusional demon 82 1,197]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/latest-afl-run-home-predicted-final-ladder-and-finals-series-projections-round-17-2018/news-story/2b9b3d0a4e2ad7365d0830e5ff6ace62

FWIW an outside view on the ladder predictor , I think we can get at least the 3 wins bare minimum required , but might surprise with 4 wins as suggested here . However my delusional side still hopes for a 98 or 2000 esc momentum ride into the top 4. I guess we have an enigma factor so really anything’s possible.

I also think there’s still a few twists to play out yet , as the weekend just showed, so trying not to get too carried away with the ladder predictor. I’m hopeful of beating one of either Adelaide or Geelong, then GC and then probably one of Sydney or GWS, would prefer Sydney so hopefully it’s all settled by round 23 and it’s just positioning for a home final that we are then concerned about?.  Either way in all of our remaining games we are a genuine 50/50 proposition, and GC an expected win (always a dangerous proposition with us) so I would back us to get at least 3 wins out of 6 and our % carry us over the line.

[SFebes 4,884]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-22/the-run-home-its-shades-of-2017-for-the-dees

[SFebes 4,884]

Rolling predictor - in a whacky twist, I have us beating Sydney, GC and GWS. Of course it will change.

[SFebes 4,884]

On 6/14/2018 at 11:41 AM, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Carlton and Brisbane get 5 wins???? nahhh

 

On 7/3/2018 at 10:05 AM, Dee Zephyr said:

Brisbane to win more games than us from here? 

So glad they recently opened a Sporting Globe Bar & Grill 5 minutes up the road. Membership to good use then.

Hmmmm, sad but true haha

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

If we beat Adelaide I give us a 40% chance of making finals, if we lose I think it will about 10%.

[layzie 34,396]

It could be absolutely anything. That's what is so uncomfortable about all this. We will know a lot more after Saturday but man the only way I'm coping with this right now is to think one week at a time and not too far ahead.

[DistrACTION Jackson 10,425]

I ran a ladder predictor where the higher ranked side won every game. Due to the unpredictable nature of AFL results I felt this was the fairest way to run the predictor. The results were as follows:

1. Richmond

2. West Coast

3. Collingwood

4. GWS

5. Geelong

6. Hawthorn

7. Port Adelaide

8. Melbourne

In the above we would play Geelong week 1 at the MCG (would be nice to get revenge for the two losses earlier in the year). Unfortunately, based on the finishing positions of the sides in the top 4 it would be a tough road to the GF, having to most likely play GWS & West Coast away to make it. 

Another learning curve for the players to show the importance of finishing as high as possible.

If we win all remaining games and every other result was the same we would finish 4th and play Richmond week 1 (we can only dream).

[Nasher 33,617]

2 minutes ago, layzie said:

It could be absolutely anything. That's what is so uncomfortable about all this. We will know a lot more after Saturday but man the only way I'm coping with this right now is to think one week at a time and not too far ahead.

Same. If we win this week, we go in to next week with the same crook feeling in our guts that we all have now. If we lose, still the same crook feeling with an element of panic tossed in. Awesome!

[Delusional demon 82 1,197]

21 minutes ago, Nasher said:

Same. If we win this week, we go in to next week with the same crook feeling in our guts that we all have now. If we lose, still the same crook feeling with an element of panic tossed in. Awesome!

We know no other way at the MFC .  Even if we ever win a flag it will be after conceding momentum and the last 6 goals off an 8 goal 3 quarter time lead so we can’t even relax until the final siren ?

anxiety is in our DNA 

[SFebes 4,884]

28 minutes ago, layzie said:

It could be absolutely anything. That's what is so uncomfortable about all this. We will know a lot more after Saturday but man the only way I'm coping with this right now is to think one week at a time and not too far ahead.

We've only got ourselves to blame Layzie

[layzie 34,396]

22 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

We've only got ourselves to blame Layzie

Pretty much. So much quiet desperation, you could cut it with a knife. 

[SFebes 4,884]

2 minutes ago, layzie said:

Pretty much. So much quiet desperation, you could cut it with a knife. 

I think that's where my frustration is, I have full belief we can take a flag home this year, but we keep making the same crucial mistakes, easy goals out the back was an issue last year too, Lever going down was big but coverable IMO. Who knows, we may hit some form, but we've lost 4 of the last 6 now, could well be 5 of the last 7.

[McQueen 17,867]

I have us finishing in 7th, playing Port at AO in an Elimination.