Jump to content

Featured Replies

38 minutes ago, SFebey said:

Cats, Adelaide, Swans, Eagles. A win v GC and 50/50 v GWS.

Yikes!

I dunno about the Swans at the G. I mean we could beat them but it's MFC, so we could lose by 37.

 

I mean, we could feasibly lose every game from here bar the GCS. Very feasibly.

 
  • Author
36 minutes ago, timbo said:

Yikes!

I dunno about the Swans at the G. I mean we could beat them but it's MFC, so we could lose by 37.

 

I mean, we could feasibly lose every game from here bar the GCS. Very feasibly.

We can win every game and we can lose every game, it's just which Melbourne turns up! I'm not as confident as others and have seen enough this year to warrant that opinion, however I do know our best can go all the way. It's going to be a cracker end of season for all sides if this weekend is anything to go by. Fingers crossed

Edited by SFebey

57 minutes ago, timbo said:

WHo do you have us losing to?

I honestly can't bring myself to trust us to win (any of) Cats, Adelaide, Swans, Eagles. I think we win GCS and GWS.

I think GWS are starting to look ominous. They are starting to get their best players back and will should be firing by Rnd 23. I can actually see them getting on a roll and doing a Richmond.

 
4 minutes ago, FarNorthernD said:

I think GWS are starting to look ominous. They are starting to get their best players back and will should be firing by Rnd 23. I can actually see them getting on a roll and doing a Richmond.

Similarly the Dees are on a roll I'm hoping it continues 

A few weeks ago I predicted 14 wins for us but that included a hopeful victory against Port and a shoe in against the Saints. 

We've got some work to do. However, what gives me optimism is that some recent other game results have worked in our favour. I'm hoping the trend of  surprise or upset results continues.

Provided of course we are not the victim of one!


Well, the squggle auto-tipper has us grinding out way through the final six rounds with games against 5 fellow finalists, then hosting a home eliminatino final against geelong, then most likely playing Sydney in Sydney and West Coast in Perth for the the chance to play Richmond at the 'G.

I'm just comforted to know we are set for the official all time most epic premiership run in AFL history.

Great end to the season coming up, I agree with a lot of comments here stating that we could win or lose 5 of the 6 games remaining depending on who turns up.

However I think that is because there are still a lot CURRENTLY in contention. For instance if Adelaide lose to Brisbane this week, which could occur given Brisbane's form. If that happens expect to see a few players put into cotton wool. Adelaide are very keen to get the best outcome from the draft this year.

If they are out of contention next week,... suddenly the game against us is easier.

It's definitely a season where you can only focus on one week at a time. 2 games covering 3rd to 10th. 

50 minutes ago, Ouch! said:

Great end to the season coming up, I agree with a lot of comments here stating that we could win or lose 5 of the 6 games remaining depending on who turns up.

However I think that is because there are still a lot CURRENTLY in contention. For instance if Adelaide lose to Brisbane this week, which could occur given Brisbane's form. If that happens expect to see a few players put into cotton wool. Adelaide are very keen to get the best outcome from the draft this year.

If they are out of contention next week,... suddenly the game against us is easier.

It's definitely a season where you can only focus on one week at a time. 2 games covering 3rd to 10th. 

Depending on how you do the ladder predictor, I had the bombers up to 4th at one stage with some wins

 

Need to win four more I reckon - Gold Coast + any two of Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast + GWS. If the teams around us suffered a spectacular Hawthorn vs Brisbane blowout (x2) it would certainly help. Next two weeks are crucial, if we lose both then shut the gate.

Edited by Supermercado

11 minutes ago, Supermercado said:

Need to win four more I reckon - Gold Coast + any two of Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast + GWS. If the teams around us suffered a spectacular Hawthorn vs Brisbane blowout (x2) it would certainly help. Next two weeks are crucial, if we lose both then shut the gate.

if we need to win 4 we are in trouble.

Not saying it cannot be done but unlikely.

Frankly winning 4 would be a great outcome. Our post bye draw was always horrible but our inability to beat teams in 50/50 games has been what has killed us. Strange because in years gone by it was our flakiness against lower teams that cost us.

I can see three more wins at best. If we win 4 or 5 we will be going into the finals on a real roll.

With our high percentage 13 wins should do it easily unless we suffer three terrible blow outs.


Remember last year when prevailing sentiment after Brisbane win was “we’re IN”. 

Last Q of Brisbane game we get to 22 points and I think “this is where good sides put the foot down and win by 50”. 

 

No no sooner had that stupid thought synapsed, Hipwood and co go BANG, BANG, BANG and we’re fighting in a one kick ball game. 

Portent of R23. 

Seen it too often. This is Melbourne. 

We have only scored below 90 points three times this season. If we defend well we have a very good chance of winning 3 of the remaining games. 

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/latest-afl-run-home-predicted-final-ladder-and-finals-series-projections-round-17-2018/news-story/2b9b3d0a4e2ad7365d0830e5ff6ace62

FWIW an outside view on the ladder predictor , I think we can get at least the 3 wins bare minimum required , but might surprise with 4 wins as suggested here . However my delusional side still hopes for a 98 or 2000 esc momentum ride into the top 4. I guess we have an enigma factor so really anything’s possible.

I also think there’s still a few twists to play out yet , as the weekend just showed, so trying not to get too carried away with the ladder predictor. I’m hopeful of beating one of either Adelaide or Geelong, then GC and then probably one of Sydney or GWS, would prefer Sydney so hopefully it’s all settled by round 23 and it’s just positioning for a home final that we are then concerned about?.  Either way in all of our remaining games we are a genuine 50/50 proposition, and GC an expected win (always a dangerous proposition with us) so I would back us to get at least 3 wins out of 6 and our % carry us over the line.

  • Author

Rolling predictor - in a whacky twist, I have us beating Sydney, GC and GWS. Of course it will change.

image.png.2b8bddebfa7865cf33b4e0f8a4c71aef.png


  • Author
On 6/14/2018 at 11:41 AM, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Carlton and Brisbane get 5 wins???? nahhh

 

On 7/3/2018 at 10:05 AM, Dee Zephyr said:

Brisbane to win more games than us from here? 

So glad they recently opened a Sporting Globe Bar & Grill 5 minutes up the road. Membership to good use then.

Hmmmm, sad but true haha

It could be absolutely anything. That's what is so uncomfortable about all this. We will know a lot more after Saturday but man the only way I'm coping with this right now is to think one week at a time and not too far ahead.

I ran a ladder predictor where the higher ranked side won every game. Due to the unpredictable nature of AFL results I felt this was the fairest way to run the predictor. The results were as follows:

1. Richmond

2. West Coast

3. Collingwood

4. GWS

5. Geelong

6. Hawthorn

7. Port Adelaide

8. Melbourne

In the above we would play Geelong week 1 at the MCG (would be nice to get revenge for the two losses earlier in the year). Unfortunately, based on the finishing positions of the sides in the top 4 it would be a tough road to the GF, having to most likely play GWS & West Coast away to make it. 

Another learning curve for the players to show the importance of finishing as high as possible.

If we win all remaining games and every other result was the same we would finish 4th and play Richmond week 1 (we can only dream).

2 minutes ago, layzie said:

It could be absolutely anything. That's what is so uncomfortable about all this. We will know a lot more after Saturday but man the only way I'm coping with this right now is to think one week at a time and not too far ahead.

Same. If we win this week, we go in to next week with the same crook feeling in our guts that we all have now. If we lose, still the same crook feeling with an element of panic tossed in. Awesome!


21 minutes ago, Nasher said:

Same. If we win this week, we go in to next week with the same crook feeling in our guts that we all have now. If we lose, still the same crook feeling with an element of panic tossed in. Awesome!

We know no other way at the MFC .  Even if we ever win a flag it will be after conceding momentum and the last 6 goals off an 8 goal 3 quarter time lead so we can’t even relax until the final siren ?

anxiety is in our DNA 

  • Author
28 minutes ago, layzie said:

It could be absolutely anything. That's what is so uncomfortable about all this. We will know a lot more after Saturday but man the only way I'm coping with this right now is to think one week at a time and not too far ahead.

We've only got ourselves to blame Layzie

22 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

We've only got ourselves to blame Layzie

Pretty much. So much quiet desperation, you could cut it with a knife. 

 
  • Author
2 minutes ago, layzie said:

Pretty much. So much quiet desperation, you could cut it with a knife. 

I think that's where my frustration is, I have full belief we can take a flag home this year, but we keep making the same crucial mistakes, easy goals out the back was an issue last year too, Lever going down was big but coverable IMO. Who knows, we may hit some form, but we've lost 4 of the last 6 now, could well be 5 of the last 7.

I have us finishing in 7th, playing Port at AO in an Elimination.


Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

Featured Content

  • GAMEDAY: Collingwood

    It's Game Day and the Demons face a monumental task as they take on the top-of-the-table Magpies in one of the biggest games on the Dees calendar: the King's Birthday Big Freeze MND match. Can the Demons defy the odds and claim a massive scalp to keep their finals hopes alive?

    • 39 replies
  • CASEY: Collingwood

    It was freezing cold at Mission Whitten Stadium where only the brave came out in the rain to watch a game that turned out to be as miserable as the weather.
    The Casey Demons secured their third consecutive victory, earning the four premiership points and credit for defeating a highly regarded Collingwood side, but achieved little else. Apart perhaps from setting the scene for Monday’s big game at the MCG and the Ice Challenge that precedes it.
    Neither team showcased significant skill in the bleak and greasy conditions, at a location that was far from either’s home territory. Even the field umpires forgot where they were and experienced a challenging evening, but no further comment is necessary.

    • 4 replies
  • NON-MFC: Round 13

    Follow all the action from every Round 13 clash excluding the Dees as the 2025 AFL Premiership Season rolls on. With Melbourne playing in the final match of the round on King's Birthday, all eyes turn to the rest of the competition. Who are you tipping to win? And more importantly, which results best serve the Demons’ finals aspirations? Join the discussion and keep track of the matches that could shape the ladder and impact our run to September.

      • Like
    • 216 replies
  • PREVIEW: Collingwood

    Having convincingly defeated last year’s premier and decisively outplayed the runner-up with 8.2 in the final quarter, nothing epitomized the Melbourne Football Club’s performance more than its 1.12 final half, particularly the eight consecutive behinds in the last term, against a struggling St Kilda team in the midst of a dismal losing streak. Just when stability and consistency were anticipated within the Demon ranks, they delivered a quintessential performance marked by instability and ill-conceived decisions, with the most striking aspect being their inaccuracy in kicking for goal, which suggested a lack of preparation (instead of sleeping in their hotel in Alice, were they having a night on the turps) rather than a well-rested team. Let’s face it - this kicking disease that makes them look like raw amateurs is becoming a millstone around the team’s neck.

    • 1 reply
  • CASEY: Sydney

    The Casey Demons were always expected to emerge victorious in their matchup against the lowly-ranked Sydney Swans at picturesque Tramway Oval, situated in the shadows of the SCG in Moore Park. They dominated the proceedings in the opening two and a half quarters of the game but had little to show for it. This was primarily due to their own sloppy errors in a low-standard game that produced a number of crowded mauls reminiscent of the rugby game popular in old Sydney Town. However, when the Swans tired, as teams often do when they turn games into ugly defensive contests, Casey lifted the standard of its own play and … it was off to the races. Not to nearby Randwick but to a different race with an objective of piling on goal after goal on the way to a mammoth victory. At the 25-minute mark of the third quarter, the Demons held a slender 14-point lead over the Swans, who are ahead on the ladder of only the previous week's opposition, the ailing Bullants. Forty minutes later, they had more than fully compensated for the sloppiness of their earlier play with a decisive 94-point victory, that culminated in a rousing finish which yielded thirteen unanswered goals. Kicks hit their targets, the ball found itself going through the middle and every player made a contribution.

    • 1 reply
  • REPORT: St. Kilda

    Hands up if you thought, like me, at half-time in yesterday’s game at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs that Melbourne’s disposal around the ground and, in particular, its kicking inaccuracy in front of the goals couldn’t get any worse. Well, it did. And what’s even more damning for the Melbourne Football Club is that the game against St Kilda and its resurgence from the bottomless pit of its miserable start to the season wasn’t just lost through poor conversion for goal but rather in the 15 minutes when the entire team went into a slumber and was mugged by the out-of-form Saints. Their six goals two behinds (one goal less than the Demons managed for the whole game) weaved a path of destruction from which they were unable to recover. Ross Lyon’s astute use of pressure to contain the situation once they had asserted their grip on the game, and Melbourne’s self-destructive wastefulness, assured that outcome. The old adage about the insanity of repeatedly doing something and expecting a different result, was out there. Two years ago, the score line in Melbourne’s loss to the Giants at this same ground was 5 goals 15 behinds - a ratio of one goal per four scoring shots - was perfectly replicated with yesterday’s 7 goals 21 behinds. 
    This has been going on for a while and opens up a number of questions. I’ll put forward a few that come to mind from this performance. The obvious first question is whether the club can find a suitable coach to instruct players on proper kicking techniques or is this a skill that can no longer be developed at this stage of the development of our playing group? Another concern is the team's ability to counter an opponent's dominance during a run on as exemplified by the Saints in the first quarter. Did the Demons underestimate their opponents, considering St Kilda's goals during this period were scored by relatively unknown forwards? Furthermore, given the modest attendance of 6,721 at TIO Traeger Park and the team's poor past performances at this venue, is it prudent to prioritize financial gain over potentially sacrificing valuable premiership points by relinquishing home ground advantage, notwithstanding the cultural significance of the team's connection to the Red Centre? 

    • 4 replies