34 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

Using ladder predictor the 2 MUST WIN matches that will assure us a place in finals (5th) are beating the Crows in Adelaide and the Swans at the G.  Both matches effectively 8 point games for us (and them) given where the clubs are presently positioned.

Drop either of those and we are more than likely toast.

Beating the Cats against the odds next week would mean only having to snatch one of the above however.

My two most doubtful games are Crows and Eagles. We might pluck the Swans at home. They like bigger grounds even less than us ?

33 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

My two most doubtful games are Crows and Eagles. We might pluck the Swans at home. They like bigger grounds even less than us ?

Think they have evolved their list a little with their kids having more outside run and the insiders of Hanneberry and Jack are banged up.

I believe they are better suited to playing away from the SCG now and would rather be playing them there

If we hit red hot form we could win every game, this side is capable if it all clicks. We seem to enjoy playing interstate more than the G so Adelaide/West Coast away shouldn't hold any fears.

The St. Kilda game...just mind boggling...

 

 

I just had a crack at a few ladder predictor scenarios. Interestingly the more mfc wins I entered, the more chance we have to remain in the 8. Very interesting ?

9 hours ago, Frustrated Demon said:

Can’t see us winning both unfortunately. I think we will finish 9th or 10th. The loss to the saints etc are going to prove costly once again.

Only time will tell FD but yes the Saints loss and some of Goody's selections/non-selections along with some interesting game day roles / match ups might end up costing us.  Losing Lever and Hogan dropping off a cliff for around 3 matches (beginning with the Pies) also hasn't helped.

A little bit of luck might be needed in other results.

Edited July 13, 20186 yr by Rusty Nails

8 hours ago, beelzebub said:

My two most doubtful games are Crows and Eagles. We might pluck the Swans at home. They like bigger grounds even less than us ?

Buddy is one that LOVES a big ground though BZ.  Would need to pressure the supply big time and have O-Mac at his best.  Outside of that they are mostly a defensive team and sluggish down back.  If we can get Jeffy and Hogan into some really good form (and possibly Stretch back and fit if JKH doesn't fire up) i reckon we're a chance to beat both of them and make it.

Hopefully we can snuff out the Doggies tomorrow otherwise i doubt any of this will matter much at all.

not gonna make the 8. you don't lose to stkilda and expect to make finals. And I think the efforts against hawks and collingwood prove that we're not skilful or defensive enough 

1 hour ago, Dr.D said:

not gonna make the 8. you don't lose to stkilda and expect to make finals. And I think the efforts against hawks and collingwood prove that we're not skilful or defensive enough 

You mean like the tiges did last year?

Whats the saying about rules and exceptions?

27 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

You mean like the tiges did last year?

Whats the saying about rules and exceptions?

What is says is Tigers > Demons

1 hour ago, Dr.D said:

not gonna make the 8. you don't lose to stkilda and expect to make finals. And I think the efforts against hawks and collingwood prove that we're not skilful or defensive enough 

I like how consistent you are with your posts.

I have us one game outside the eight with North just above us.  We need to win at least one of the improbables to sneak in on percentage.  That game against the Saints did immense damage. 

My final pre-finals prediction...

We are about to get on a salad.  

We win comfortably today and then beat Geelong in Geelong and Adelaide in Adelaide.  In fact, our only loss is to West Coast in Perth.

We finish on 15 wins and 4th spot on the ladder.

12 hours ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I have us one game outside the eight with North just above us.  We need to win at least one of the improbables to sneak in on percentage.  That game against the Saints did immense damage. 

If my calculations are correct, wins over Port and the Saints would have us 2nd on the ladder and a realistic chance of top 4. 

We really stuffed up.

14 hours ago, binman said:

I like how consistent you are with your posts.

just when i thought last season would stop fans from getting ahead if themselves i come on demonland to hear posts about top 4, top 8 etc. bloody mind boggling stuff. i never expected us to make finals until we are in the finals.

2 hours ago, Redleg said:

If my calculations are correct, wins over Port and the Saints would have us 2nd on the ladder and a realistic chance of top 4. 

We really stuffed up.

Yep, exactly. Throw in the Geelong loss and this season is a big "what could of been"

Now, the pressure is already back on. Frustrating

Saints play Giants, Bombers, Hawks and Norf in the the run home.

A few wins by them against that lot would not harm our ladder prospects at all.

Of the other non contenders probably Brisbane is the only one capable of an upset (perhaps the Dogs and let's hope it's not today.)

14 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Saints play Giants, Bombers, Hawks and Norf in the the run home.

A few wins by them against that lot would not harm our ladder prospects at all.

Of the other non contenders probably Brisbane is the only one capable of an upset (perhaps the Dogs and let's hope it's not today.)

The more upsets we can get out of the rubbish sides, the better.

St Kilda and Brisbane holding some form for the rest of the season helps us. Fremantle knocking over Port, Hawthorn or Collingwood (all of whom they play at home) could help too.

But we have to take care of our own destiny. We have to get to 13-9, which means we absolutely have to beat the Dogs and GC and then win two of the "harder" five.

Getting harder to predict now especially after all the weekends upsets, the whole top 8 can change dramatically, even Tigers. With each game it changes, all that we can do is keep winning and the rest will fall into place. At least over coming weeks we will see where we are at as a club, are we flat track bullies? I enjoyed last year when we beat the better sides. Anyone in the 8 can win it. Collingwood have beaten no one also. Plenty of injuries to top 8 sides, Kennedy, Nik Nat etc.

STK loss so costly, Geel and Port blunders too.

 

38 minutes ago, SFebey said:

Getting harder to predict now especially after all the weekends upsets, the whole top 8 can change dramatically, even Tigers. With each game it changes, all that we can do is keep winning and the rest will fall into place. At least over coming weeks we will see where we are at as a club, are we flat track bullies? I enjoyed last year when we beat the better sides. Anyone in the 8 can win it. Collingwood have beaten no one also. Plenty of injuries to top 8 sides, Kennedy, Nik Nat etc.

STK loss so costly, Geel and Port blunders too.

 

Run that 10 times. We variously appear in 4th through 9th.

Just now, timbo said:

Run that 10 times. We variously appear in 4th through 9th.

I do it manually, not auto tip.

No need to panic.

 

i ran it with the kids this morning. They have us finishing second, after winning all remaining games!

 

they may be slightly biased though, my little girls second team is North Melbourne, because they’ve got Melbourne in their name! 

3 minutes ago, SFebey said:

I do it manually, not auto tip.

WHo do you have us losing to?

I honestly can't bring myself to trust us to win (any of) Cats, Adelaide, Swans, Eagles. I think we win GCS and GWS.

3 minutes ago, davejemmolly said:

No need to panic.

 

i ran it with the kids this morning. They have us finishing second, after winning all remaining games!

 

they may be slightly biased though, my little girls second team is North Melbourne, because they’ve got Melbourne in their name! 

What a refreshing way to pick a second team. My wife thinks (and insists) mine is Collingwood by dint of our betrothment. Unfortunately her ears seem broken when I insist it is Richmond.

1 minute ago, timbo said:

WHo do you have us losing to?

I honestly can't bring myself to trust us to win (any of) Cats, Adelaide, Swans, Eagles. I think we win GCS and GWS.

Cats, Adelaide, Swans, Eagles. A win v GC and 50/50 v GWS.