According to the HUNs Top 10 8 Point Games remaining we have two.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/we-look-at-the-games-that-will-have-the-biggest-impact-on-the-top-eight-in-the-run-home/news-story/049fed95cb8d23a57701c50e7e44cab9

9. MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE, ROUND 18

The Demons are currently a game back of Port Adelaide and Richmond but a win this weekend would certainly give them hope of a double chance. However, a Power win would all but end the Demons’ top-four hopes and possibly deliver Ken Hinkley’s team a Showdown qualifying final against Adelaide.

Top 4 Chances

Demons: WIN = 20% LOSS 3%

Power: WIN = 83% LOSS 52%

6. MELBOURNE v ST KILDA, ROUND 21

One of those earlier games for the Saints is this, a date with the Demons in Round 21. At the moment both teams are locked on nine wins. Fast forward three weeks and if the Saints can claim a win their finals hopes are better than 50-50 while a loss drops them to just 19 per cent. Melbourne look comfortable in the eight despite sitting only a game ahead of the Bulldogs in 11th and with results factored in, a win sees them become a 86 per cent chance of playing finals.

Top 8 Chances

Demons: WIN = 86% LOSS 53%

Saints: WIN = 52% LOSS 19%

 

Its round 18 and we are still a chance. I still dont believe it. As long as we dont end up playing the Swans in Sydney in a knockout final im ok.

2 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Its round 18 and we are still a chance. I still dont believe it. As long as we dont end up playing the Swans in Sydney in a knockout final im ok.

agree. I'd back us against anyone else week 1.

2 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Its round 18 and we are still a chance. I still dont believe it. As long as we dont end up playing the Swans in Sydney in a knockout final im ok.

I'd love to come up against them tbh. Let's be honest, finals this year is the first step, we want the pressure that comes with it. We are a chance with a good break and fresh legs with few injuries, and imo the SCG ground will suit our style 

Saints game is huge and will almost be approached like a final by both teams anyway.

My assumption is that those finals/top 4 prediction percentages mostly reley on us winning the games we should against North, Brisbane and the Pies.  I'd really love us to get one or two big scalps along the way like Port and or GWS.  Playing our A game, I think we are a realistic chance against either.

GWS's form has been fairly ordanary over the past month and who knows, if they drop a few more, our game against them might even become an 8 pointer as well.

I'd pretty much agree with that summation. Beating Port this week would be massive for not only finals aspirations but leaving the door slightly ajar for top 4, while a loss brings us back to the back and we're in a dogfight for the final couple of spots in the 8. 

I'm feeling that strange confidence this week, not that a win is certain but that we're a very good chance. I don't rate Port, they're like the tigers who look good at times but will go to water in September. Bring finals like intensity on the weekend and I thought no they'll be found out. 

We've beaten better than them this year. 

Saints game is massive isnt it. Jones, Vince back.  Personally I dont see us winning on Saturday. Gawn and Hogan still finding fitness and form after lengthy breaks. Viney , Tyson, Watts may all be back but  may be a little rusty . Garlett and Vince will be missing and it's ALSO the week post Darwin. Ominous. 

Top 4 would be immense but given our injuries atm I think its a bridge too far. If we could get into the finals , and with a pretty much a  full fit list,  that would be massive...and IF that happened I think we could take on anyone with some confidence tbh. 

 

51 minutes ago, Wells 11 said:

Saints game is massive isnt it. Jones, Vince back.  Personally I dont see us winning on Saturday. Gawn and Hogan still finding fitness and form after lengthy breaks. Viney , Tyson, Watts may all be back but  may be a little rusty . Garlett and Vince will be missing and it's ALSO the week post Darwin. Ominous. 

Top 4 would be immense but given our injuries atm I think its a bridge too far. If we could get into the finals , and with a pretty much a  full fit list,  that would be massive...and IF that happened I think we could take on anyone with some confidence tbh. 

 

Why will Garlett be missing? Did I miss an injury?

1 minute ago, Chook said:

Why will Garlett be missing? Did I miss an injury?

Possibly out. Back home in WA after a family member passed away.

5 minutes ago, Deemented Are Go! said:

Possibly out. Back home in WA after a family member passed away.

Poor fella. I hope he's mentally right to play on Saturday.

I was watching the last five min of the Westcoast game, Viney on 37 possessions (see below), if he's back, thats big in itself. With Watts, Tyson and Salem... huge.

Reckon the team has continued to grow and develop in their absence and we should be a good go for Port. I reckon the MFC boys will be focused on winning our spot in the 8 asap, and off our own boot rather than weakly hoping others fail for us to slink in...

And while unlikely, not implausible, if we win them all we're a shot at a Qualifying final at the G.  

 

Edited July 19, 20178 yr by PaulRB

For the remaining six games,I would rate St.kilda,Melbourne,Port Adelaide,West Coast,Richmond as 3 wins,3 defeats,Essendon,Swans 4 wins,2 defeats. Which would see the Dees in eighth spot on percentage. Four wins would see us make the 8. 13 wins for the season would be classified as an improvement,anything less is not acceptable.

2 hours ago, Pates said:

I'd pretty much agree with that summation. Beating Port this week would be massive for not only finals aspirations but leaving the door slightly ajar for top 4, while a loss brings us back to the back and we're in a dogfight for the final couple of spots in the 8. 

I'm feeling that strange confidence this week, not that a win is certain but that we're a very good chance. I don't rate Port, they're like the tigers who look good at times but will go to water in September. Bring finals like intensity on the weekend and I thought no they'll be found out. 

We've beaten better than them this year. 

Concur. Port are not that good and this game to me is vital. No use looking at the Saints game or any others. Win this on Saturday and rest of season will take care of itself. In my view this is the most important game this season. Win and win well we look upwards and onwards with maybe our best available over next couple of weeks we can make a big run for finals and perhaps a top 4 spot. We must win this old fashioned Saturday arvo game and will be watching closely from the box up here in Qld..

Go Dees

We need two big wins. Aside from the Bulldogs game we haven't really had one. We've had a lot of close games, which are important because we need to know and learn how to win those. But we lost by a combined 80 points vs Sydney and Adelaide and our wins across the 4 win streak and Carlton didn't make that up so we lose percentage gain.  If we win one of Port or GWS by say 1-2 goals but then lose to one by a big margin, we can fall under 100%. We need strong big wins, or we need to keep our losing margins down. Imo that's more important at this stage because the likelihood is that we'll win at an absolute maximum 4 games of our remaining 6. We need to pound the likes of North and Brisbane if we really want to cement our chances. Imo those are more so "8 point games". Our percentage isn't as big as it once was. We've lost 10% over the past month and a half despite going 5-2.

Edited July 19, 20178 yr by praha

If we can lock in a top eight spot before round 23 that would be the perfect scenario.

Agree.  If we beat Port, we will make finals. 

Lose to Port and finals are 50/50.  Would need to definitely beat the Saints IMO. 

Bulldogs and Bombers all still fancy their shot at the 8 and have good fixtures.

Edited July 19, 20178 yr by spirit of norm smith
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As soon as the draw came out I saw us playing pies in round 23 for the 8. I've thought the same thing all year, except after the Hawks game where it looked like we'd screwed it up for ourselves.

Pendles misses the rest of the season and doesn't come back for the last week, then we get in.

Port are due for a loss. They are coming in as favourites on our home turf. That's a recipe for an upset!

I'm most nervous about the Roos in Hobart. Why do we have such a hard time against them

They are talking about melbourne and the top 4  and there isn't a punch line

what the Fk is going on!?  I can't get used to this!

No such thing as an 8 point game...