Which Clubs to rise and fall 2017

[Little Goffy 14,577]

I wont try to do every team, I think most will be relatively stable, a bit of drifting this way and that.

UP!

Melbourne. Yep. We all know that. Up a few wins, a few ladder spots, slipping nicely into a home final.

Port Adelaide. It clearly all turns on activity between the ears. Rough to predict this mob but the core class is there, and the return of Ryder and Monfries helps their brittle debt.

Gold Coast, Fremantle, and Essendon. Not in any exciting way, though. The only way is up... and yes, I've left Brisbane out.

DOWN!

West Coast. I just don't like them. They're unlikely to drop to dismal lows, since their team is well-selected for Subiaco and they do have a good core. But they are unreliable and annoying.

North Melbourne. This time for real. Maybe never to return. They don't actually have the young bold new players coming through that they claimed was their reason for needing to push-out some still high-performing veterans. Even after the purge, there are a lot of older players which the club relies on for success. Waite and Goldstein most obviously. In the short term, they'll slip a bit, but in the long term I expect they'll continually slide for quite some time - the young talent just isn't there, the depth isn't there.

Geelong and Hawthorn, I'd expect to slip somewhat. But probably still be in finals. After all, there is an AFL contractual requirement that Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney are present in every finals series.

[dazzledavey36 54,949]

I think the saints are still slightly ahead but will eventually overtake them. Picking up Lewis and Hibberd has really bridged that gap. Their forward line is ahead of ours right at this minute. Even without Nick they still have a good spread of goalkickers in Bruce, Membrey, McCartin. To close the gap we need Weideman and Watts to go up a gear next year and really step up. Also my money is for Tim Smith to add an extra dynamic and x factor to our forward line.

The midfield is now even for me. We add Jordan lewis while they add Koby Stevens and Jack Steele who could potentially have a Dom Tyson 2014 like impact. Kid is a gun. I expect Oliver Petracca Brayshaw and Viney to really take our midfield to the next level if. Felt we lacked real leadership in the midfield when we played them the 2nd time, Lewis will help this.

They will have Jake Carlisle and Nathan Brown down there this year. Both are pretty handy defenders but also both have their deficiency .I'm sorry to say but Tom Mac disposal and decision-making was putrid last year. Hopefully he improves that. I have Frost ahead of O Mac whom im still bit iffy about. Frost foot skills can be pretty poor at times also. This is where i was very surprised we didn't go for another experience defender during the off season for depth as i still think we are still bit green down back. If Tommy Mac goes down then we have to rely on someone like a Keilty to team up with Frost and Oscar.. *Cringe*.

I have a feeling Dees and saints will play finals together in 2017.

 

[Jaded No More 68,958]

The Saints biggest downfall will continue to be their reliance on Etihad.

They play exceptionally well there, and their game plan is perfectly suited to that ground. Unfortunately for them, we don't play finals at Etihad. 

[beelzebub 23,378]

29 minutes ago, Jaded said:

The Saints biggest downfall will continue to be their reliance on Etihad.

They play exceptionally well there, and their game plan is perfectly suited to that ground. Unfortunately for them, we don't play finals at Etihad. 

Definitely a double edged sword !!

[Glenn Molloy 494]

UP:  Saints (6-8), Gold Coast (8-10), Essendon (8-10), Melbourne (6-8), Freo (9-11)

DOWN: North (12-14), Geelong (6-8), Adel (9-11)  Port (bottom 4), Hawthorn (6-10 - praying for them to miss!)

Richmond, West Coast, Pies to tread water. 

 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

2 hours ago, DemonAndrew said:

I think 5-15 is going to be the most competitive it's been for some time.

This.

Last year was actually very close in the end, it's just that North got off to such a good start which meant the top eight didn't change for the rest of the season.

Next season will be decided by a lot of games where the margin is under ten points.

[DubDee 25,889]

5 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

St Kilda WILL finish top 4 and make a prelim at the least.

I see them as the next power house of the comp.

are you being serious?

who in their midfield will make them the next powerhouse? They had a dream draw and almost no injuries for most of the year last year. And Nick surely can't play another outstanding season at 34. 

I expect them to miss out of finals and take a step backwards (but still probably beat us)

[Dommygun12 79]

8 hours ago, CBDees said:

Dommygun, you don't seem to have anybody finishing higher the second. Who are GWS to play in the GF?

Probably Sydney I do cringe at the prospect at a nsw teamed gf either gws or Sydney to finish 1st or 2nd leaning slightly towards gws

[old55 23,607]

Murphy, cup - pass the bucket.

[dazzledavey36 54,949]

3 hours ago, DubDee said:

are you being serious?

who in their midfield will make them the next powerhouse? They had a dream draw and almost no injuries for most of the year last year. And Nick surely can't play another outstanding season at 34. 

I expect them to miss out of finals and take a step backwards (but still probably beat us)

This is where i feel they made a huge mistake in passing up Petracca.  Billings for me has been meh.. They don't have any up and coming midfielders that just scream future star like a Petracca Oliver or Viney.

[beelzebub 23,378]

29 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

This is where i feel they made a huge mistake in passing up Petracca.  Billings for me has been meh.. They don't have any up and coming midfielders that just scream future star like a Petracca Oliver or Viney.

Damn shame ?

[Pennant St Dee 13,189]

Top 5

GWS - imo should finish top and hurt from last year s prelim loss. They are strong everywhere inside ball winners outside run and polish. Numerous tall forward options and classy players at ground level. They aren't shabby down back either and use the ball well off hb.  Mummy is very important but not the key ingredient he was 2 years ago. They should win it but Prelim & GF anything can happen 

Dogs, Swans and Crows to make up the 4 for mine. Swans did well to get games into young players. Dogs put together a great September when everything went right but they deserved that considering the horror run through the year with injury. Crows are exciting and plenty of players to throw through the middle, lacked really good pace last season but some of the younger players on the list have good pace

Meth Coast are still going to be strong Mitchell is all class and the influence he will have freeing up Priddis and Shuey should be huge. Sheed being fit provides some more size and composure around the stoppages. Josh Kennedy may struggle with Mitchell coming in and delivering the ball to his chest which will be foreign to him but I think he'll flourish. 1 on 1 is his weakness but on a lead he is almost unbeatable. Petrie I think will be ok as an out and out ruckman. They wont drop many at Subi and only need to pinch 3 or 4 away to be pushing top 4.

Of the rest of the 8 from 2016

North Slide - big turnover on the list and rebuilding 

Cats unsure could hold or slide but IMO wont improve - to reliant on Danger and Selwood. May have a good run with the older players and give it one more good crack but a lot of big holes to shore up

Hawks slide -been the benchmark but the signs were there for all to see the end was coming. Gibson getting more work put in to him Hodge close to done. Mitchell and Lewis absolute A graders who are almost impossible to replace

The improvers

Saints - like what they have yes Roo and Joey are still important but the kids they have are quality team/culture makers like Dunstan Ross & Gresham. Carlisle imo is a gun CHB and Steven has taken big steps to become almost A grade 

Dees - end of season I was worried about the boys thinking it will just happen. The inclusions of Lewis and Hibberd are huge to provide more experienced heads and assist Brendan Macartney Goodwin and Vrossy with setting the culture and standards along with Chunk and Viney.  Gus Trac and Hoges all coming back in good nick shows the boys know what is required. We can finish anywhere from 5th to 13th but anything but finals should be a disappointment 

Suns - love their spine it is potentially elite. No longer reliant on Ablett and certainly due a good run with injury. Ainsworth will step in straight away and be very damaging at the feet of Lynch and Wright 

Freo - can't go much lower got games into younger players last year and a fit Fyfe is huge. They will push finals and shape the 8 with their home form but the younger players will tire in the second half of the season 

Bombers - Merrett Parish Danniher Francis and Hartley all get a really good chop out from some really good quality players. Hard for them not to improve. I expect Heppell to have a huge season 

Edited January 18, 2017 by Pennant St Dee

[daisycutter 29,616]

33 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Freo - can't go much lower got games into younger players last year and a fit Fyfe is huge. They will push finals and shape the 8 with their home form but the younger players will tire in the second half of the season 

psd, what are you hearing over there about fyfe's rehab and preseason training? is he expected to make round 1?

[sonofgod 0]

Us to finish 5th - 8th. After not making the finals in 11 years, setting the bar too high is nuts in my opinion. Each to their own though. Go DEES!!!!

[Pennant St Dee 13,189]

2 hours ago, daisycutter said:

psd, what are you hearing over there about fyfe's rehab and preseason training? is he expected to make round 1?

All the noise is he will be there round 1,  expectations are high really up and running extremely fit at the moment. Fyfe is the ultimate professional in terms of preparation and getting his body right. With all the mileage building done for pre season the increased contact will become more prevalent and any issues with Fyfes leg will start to rise then. 

[beelzebub 23,378]

9 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

All the noise is he will be there round 1,  expectations are high really up and running extremely fit at the moment. Fyfe is the ultimate professional in terms of preparation and getting his body right. With all the mileage building done for pre season the increased contact will become more prevalent and any issues with Fyfes leg will start to rise then. 

Shame everyone hates his guts ?

Of course theres a lot of noise. Freo useless and ppl desperate to hang hopes on the mesiah ( why does that sound so familiar )

Still a bottom 4 team

[Wells 11 5,406]

20 hours ago, DemonAndrew said:

I think 5-15 is going to be the most competitive it's been for some time.

Even those presumed to be down the bottom could bounce up and bother ostensibly 'good' sides.

The only sides that I think cant make it this year are the Roos and the lions. Every other team walks into the season with finals expectations imo.  People write off Freo at their own peril I reckon. Bennell back and fit, Fyfe and Sandllands the same, then add in Mc Cartney. Theyre retty handy ins. In the same way, if we're excited about Melksham and Hibbard coming in and and about the impact they could make..then the bombers have 10 of these and bigger names than that. 

Its going to be a full on dog fight. I expect no more than 2 games between 6 and 14th. So In a year like this we just HAVE to win the close ones. whoever does better in the clutches will make it.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Wells 11

[beelzebub 23,378]

Freo have a touch of the Saints lament about them. Outside their cozy arena they fall apart.

Lyons game style wont garner too many wins. Their list looks ok but performance is dysfunctional. Just wait and watch for seans to open. 

Blues have about a 1 in 6 zillion chance of any Sept action. Suns have a better chance and they have none !

[Diamond_Jim 12,592]

The closeness of the competition underscores how we suffer (and will continue to do so) by our requirement to play at less than ideal venues.

Darwin, Alice Springs and Kardinia Park spring immediately to mind. Throw in our inability to win at Etihad and we have 6 games (one win in Darwin aside against a very out of form Freo aside) that have proved unwinnable in the past.

Need to win probably three to four of those 6 to show real improvement yet already people are expressing fear about what is possibly the easiest (or should be ) ... St Kilda at Etihad.

That opening game is a real test !!

[rjay 24,939]

5 hours ago, Wells 11 said:

The only sides that I think cant make it this year are the Roos and the lions. Every other team walks into the season with finals expectations imo.  People write off Freo at their own peril I reckon. Bennell back and fit, Fyfe and Sandllands the same, then add in Mc Cartney. Theyre retty handy ins. In the same way, if we're excited about Melksham and Hibbard coming in and and about the impact they could make..then the bombers have 10 of these and bigger names than that. 

Its going to be a full on dog fight. I expect no more than 2 games between 6 and 14th. So In a year like this we just HAVE to win the close ones. whoever does better in the clutches will make it.

I would add Carlton and the Tiges to those 2 and put Collingwood in the extremely doubtful with Freo.

Not convinced with EFC either but we will see...

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Adelaide - Down

Brisbane - Stay

Carlton - Stay

Collingwood - Down

Essendon - Up

Fremantle - Up

Geelong - Down

Gold Coast - Up

GWS - Stay

Hawthorn - Down

Melbourne - Up

North Melbourne - Down

Port Adelaide - Up

Richmond - Down

St Kilda - Up

West Coast - Stay

Western Bulldogs - Stay

[spirit of norm smith 16,467]

early call 18 february

Top 8

Giants

Cats

Crows

Bulldogs

Swans

Eagles

Saints

Demons

9th Hawks 10th Dockers 11th Magpies 12th Suns  13th Blues 14th Power  15th Tigers 16th Bombers 17th Kangas 18th Lions

[Sir Why You Little 37,046]

5 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

early call 18 february

Top 8

Giants

Cats

Crows

Bulldogs

Swans

Eagles

Saints

Demons

9th Hawks 10th Dockers 11th Magpies 12th Suns  13th Blues 14th Power  15th Tigers 16th Bombers 17th Kangas 18th Lions

Be a few coaching vacancies for 2018 with that Top 8!

[Pates 9,660]

I disagree with your assessment of the Saints, if there's only one new spot available in the top 8 I feel like they will be the ones we're battling with. I feel like the ceiling on our young players is higher so we will accelerate ahead of them next year. But for this year I think it will be a scrap between us which could be down to whoever wins round one. 

I feel the Hawks will drop out of top four but Roughead returning will make a big massive difference. 

I feel Geelong are vulnerable if anything happens to Dangerfield, but as long as he stays fit they'll be thereabouts of top 4. 

Essendon are a real unknown quantity, it pisses me off that they got the number one draft pick and they then get all their players back. I they'll finish about 10th, if they make finals I will literally throw up. 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

After just one game it is clear that Hawthorn won't be going anywhere.

I had them as a "down", but they are still a great chance to be top four.