I can't imagine Oliver following quite the same trajectory as Brayshaw did last year. He doesn't have the tank yet.

I can't imagine Oliver following quite the same trajectory as Brayshaw did last year. He doesn't have the tank yet.

The 10th placegetter at DC ran 10.16 for the 3 kilometre time trial. Oliver ran 10.45.

Clearly there's room for improvement, but considering he wasn't at peak fitness and still carrying puppy fat I don't think it's going to be a huge task to get to an acceptable level.

I suspect he's a tad behind Petracca and Brayshaw at the same stage, but nothing insurmountable over a 4-5 month period.

Jeremy Howe is quickly forgotten around here, played every game last year and had a top 10 in our B&F. He would still be in our best 22 Round 1 next year.

FWIW I see Oliver competing with VanDemon, ANB and maybe Petraccca, depends how quickly he applies himself, for the 'fringe' hard onballer role.

Howe was a complete oversight by me there, would definitely be in our round 1 team. Which also makes me realise that with both him and Cross gone, we have lost quite a bit in terms of backmen peeling off and taking an intercept mark. Seems we only have McDonald who can do that now. Would love to find someone else who can do that in our team but I'm drawing a blank. Salem could try but he is quite short and Dunn/Garland are more effective stoppers. Lamumba and Melksham are more attacking and not great in the air. I think we need to find someone on our list who is capable of this role so we can attacking from defthe nice rather than just kill the ball coming forward.

Jetta is probably our best bet but he is also short (although the decent with a high ball) on top of having to take care of the Betts, Wingards and Walters. We really lack players who can execute this now.

Edited November 26, 20159 yr by Demonated

I have not felt so positive about our prospects for the next season for a very long time.

If we have a good run with injuries we will win more games than we lose next year!

I think clubs are not going to like playing us as we are developing a group of players with a hard edge.

I will return to reality when the medication wears off. Nurse!

The 10th placegetter at DC ran 10.16 for the 3 kilometre time trial. Oliver ran 10.45.

Clearly there's room for improvement, but considering he wasn't at peak fitness and still carrying puppy fat I don't think it's going to be a huge task to get to an acceptable level.

I suspect he's a tad behind Petracca and Brayshaw at the same stage, but nothing insurmountable over a 4-5 month period.

That's a massive gap, and probably ranked him in the bottom quarter. You don't develop AFL level endurance overnight or in one preseason.

That's a massive gap, and probably ranked him in the bottom quarter. You don't develop AFL level endurance overnight or in one preseason.

Give me some facts, otherwise it just sounds like hyperbole. You may be right, btw, but I find your post far from compelling.

Oliver went from 90 skinfolds to 59 in a matter of weeks and wasn't near peak physical condition in the 3 km time trial.

I doubt the gap is as "massive" as you say to get down to a level that will allow him to compete at AFL level. Although, I accept not having a 'sub' next year doesn't help his cause.

Pretty hard to judge where Oliver is going to be at by round 1, from a fitness point of view most draftee's seem to do between 65-75% of the program in their first pre season, i'd expect Oliver to probably be less under normal circumstances given he has missed the previous 2 pre seasons, don't want to blow the kid up, having said that it seems we're focusing much more on footy this year so that probably increases the amount the young blokes do.

I reckon he's really going to have to earn it, with the interchange cap we are going to have to make sure blokes are 100% right to go before they play.

That's a massive gap, and probably ranked him in the bottom quarter. You don't develop AFL level endurance overnight or in one preseason.

It is 5% slower. 3km is running goalline to goal on the MCG 20 times. If he chased his 'elite' 10th place-getting opponent the ength of the ground and back he would be 3 seconds behind. Who cares. It is footy not track and field.

God it really is ridiculous in this day age with people getting sports science data online and pretending that it means something on an AFL field

The formula is agilty test/skinfolds+white blood cell count=brownlow votes

fmd

lol at a 10.45 3km time being indicative of poor fitness.

That is a very quick time.

And one that is only going to get better as he moves into a professional environment.

lol at a 10.45 3km time being indicative of poor fitness.

That is a very quick time.

And one that is only going to get better as he moves into a professional environment.

It is ok and doesn't diminish his talent nor fitness. However it is not very quick by any standards. I've ran a 3ker in less time than that and know many others who have done the same. It's pretty decent for someone his age and definitely for someone of his body type though.

From AFL site... Best 22.

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Colin Garland
HB: Christian Salem, Lynden Dunn, Jake Melksham
C: Angus Brayshaw, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson
HF: Dean Kent, Jesse Hogan, Christian Petracca
F: Jeff Garlett, Chris Dawes, Jack Watts
Foll: Max Gawn, Bernie Vince, Jack Viney
Int: Sam Frost, Aaron vandenBerg, Heritier Lumumba, Tom Bugg

DEPTH
Key-position defenders: Oscar McDonald
General defenders: Jack Grimes, Dean Terlich, Josh Wagner*
Key-position forwards: Liam Hulett, Cameron Pedersen, Sam Weideman
General forwards: Jay Kennedy-Harris, Jayden Hunt, Billy Stretch, Joel Smith*
Midfielders: James Harmes*, Matt Jones, Viv Michie*, Alex Neal-Bullen, Ben Newton, Clayton Oliver, Jack Trengove, Mitch White*,
Rucks: Jake Spencer, Mitchell King, Max King*

Melbourne's team is starting to look a lot more promising and secure. The backline is consolidated with Essendon recruit Jake Melksham to add further competitiveness and run and carry away from the contest. Christian Petracca's inclusion should be a major fillip for the Demons after he missed his entire first season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The points of contention start on the bench with Greater Western Sydney recruit Tom Bugg earning a game over line-breakers Ben Kennedy and Billy Stretch. Jack Grimes can count himself unlucky not to be picked, while Jack Trengove's injury history rules him out of the mix. Alex Neal-Bullen, Jay Kennedy-Harris and Clayton Oliver should all push for regular senior appearances in 2016. – Ben Guthrie

Probably the best effort from AFL.com in five years or more. No howlers in that side, although White is a defender and Harmes and Stretch should be swapped around.

If I was to predict the side that would line up in Round 1, that's it.

Edited November 28, 20159 yr by P-man

From AFL site... Best 22.

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Colin Garland

HB: Christian Salem, Lynden Dunn, Jake Melksham

C: Angus Brayshaw, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson

HF: Dean Kent, Jesse Hogan, Christian Petracca

F: Jeff Garlett, Chris Dawes, Jack Watts

Foll: Max Gawn, Bernie Vince, Jack Viney

Int: Sam Frost, Aaron vandenBerg, Heritier Lumumba, Tom Bugg

DEPTH

Key-position defenders: Oscar McDonald

General defenders: Jack Grimes, Dean Terlich, Josh Wagner*

Key-position forwards: Liam Hulett, Cameron Pedersen, Sam Weideman

General forwards: Jay Kennedy-Harris, Jayden Hunt, Billy Stretch, Joel Smith*

Midfielders: James Harmes*, Matt Jones, Viv Michie*, Alex Neal-Bullen, Ben Newton, Clayton Oliver, Jack Trengove, Mitch White*,

Rucks: Jake Spencer, Mitchell King, Max King*

Melbourne's team is starting to look a lot more promising and secure. The backline is consolidated with Essendon recruit Jake Melksham to add further competitiveness and run and carry away from the contest. Christian Petracca's inclusion should be a major fillip for the Demons after he missed his entire first season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The points of contention start on the bench with Greater Western Sydney recruit Tom Bugg earning a game over line-breakers Ben Kennedy and Billy Stretch. Jack Grimes can count himself unlucky not to be picked, while Jack Trengove's injury history rules him out of the mix. Alex Neal-Bullen, Jay Kennedy-Harris and Clayton Oliver should all push for regular senior appearances in 2016. – Ben Guthrie

Kennedy not even in the depth list. I like it.

Edited November 28, 20159 yr by TheoX

lol at a 10.45 3km time being indicative of poor fitness.

That is a very quick time.

And one that is only going to get better as he moves into a professional environment.

So why do clubs have players run a 3km time trial at the start of preseason training? Just for the fun of it I guess. Nothing like a nice stroll in the park.

BTW, 10.45 is NOT a very quick time for a sportsman that requires elite endurance.

It is 5% slower. 3km is running goalline to goal on the MCG 20 times. If he chased his 'elite' 10th place-getting opponent the ength of the ground and back he would be 3 seconds behind. Who cares. It is footy not track and field.

God it really is ridiculous in this day age with people getting sports science data online and pretending that it means something on an AFL field

The formula is agilty test/skinfolds+white blood cell count=brownlow votes

fmd

Thanks for putting the time differences into perspective. As you say some like to get excited / depressed by stats.....the one that really matters is the scoreboard at the end of the GF!!!!!

So why do clubs have players run a 3km time trial at the start of preseason training? Just for the fun of it I guess. Nothing like a nice stroll in the park.

BTW, 10.45 is NOT a very quick time for a sportsman that requires elite endurance.

He is 18.

And he was a student, not a sportsman, when he ran that time.

But, nah, let's not have any context, coz that's [censored] boring...

HF: Dean Kent, Jesse Hogan, Christian Petracca

From AFL site... Best 22.

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Colin GarlandHB: Christian Salem, Lynden Dunn, Jake MelkshamC: Angus Brayshaw, Nathan Jones, Dom TysonHF: Dean Kent, Jesse Hogan, Christian PetraccaF: Jeff Garlett, Chris Dawes, Jack WattsFoll: Max Gawn, Bernie Vince, Jack VineyInt: Sam Frost, Aaron vandenBerg, Heritier Lumumba, Tom Bugg

DEPTHKey-position defenders: Oscar McDonaldGeneral defenders: Jack Grimes, Dean Terlich, Josh Wagner*Key-position forwards: Liam Hulett, Cameron Pedersen, Sam WeidemanGeneral forwards: Jay Kennedy-Harris, Jayden Hunt, Billy Stretch, Joel Smith*Midfielders: James Harmes*, Matt Jones, Viv Michie*, Alex Neal-Bullen, Ben Newton, Clayton Oliver, Jack Trengove, Mitch White*,Rucks: Jake Spencer, Mitchell King, Max King*

Melbourne's team is starting to look a lot more promising and secure. The backline is consolidated with Essendon recruit Jake Melksham to add further competitiveness and run and carry away from the contest. Christian Petracca's inclusion should be a major fillip for the Demons after he missed his entire first season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The points of contention start on the bench with Greater Western Sydney recruit Tom Bugg earning a game over line-breakers Ben Kennedy and Billy Stretch. Jack Grimes can count himself unlucky not to be picked, while Jack Trengove's injury history rules him out of the mix. Alex Neal-Bullen, Jay Kennedy-Harris and Clayton Oliver should all push for regular senior appearances in 2016. – Ben Guthrie

Another year to go before we have real depth.

I was super impressed with the way Harmes finished 2015, i reckon a solid pre season and he should be right in the mix for round 1.

Another year to go before we have real depth.

For the talls. Yes, maybe even 2 years and even longer for ruck depth. For the mids and half forward/half back we've got a few options.

Grimes, JKH, Harmes, Stretch (who'd I'd have best 22, going for an extra runner over Frost), ANB, Newton, Mitch White, Michie all have something to offer as depth. Every one of those had at least 1 good game of AFL last year and should be better this year, particularly the younger guys. I'd add Kennedy to that list as well. There's some options for the midfield, forward and backline particularly if it's a matter of them filling roles they can perform.

Oliver is another addition who should be able to come in and show a bit at some stage. And if he gets back out there Trengove might have something to offer at a minimum as depth. Wagner could surprise as well.

With the talls it's a reliance on Spencer for the ruck, then probably Frost down back and combination of Pedersen, Dawes and Frost for the key forwards and 2nd ruck positions. Although Max King, Weideman and Oscar Mc particularly could be considered, all 3 should at least show something in the VFL.

I'm much more concerned about the best 6 or so players being up to a high level (say Hogan, Jones, Vince, Viney, McDonald, ?Tyson/Salem/Gawn etc) and the next 10 being above average and able to step up when required than who will round out the bottom 6 spots. Freo finished top of the ladder carrying a few duds, Richmond have no depth and were 5th and even Hawthorn's depth isn't all that flash, they just play well in the system and fill the roles whilst some excellent players take up the slack if they are missing one of their many superstars.

Edited November 28, 20159 yr by Georgiou R.R. Martin

So why do clubs have players run a 3km time trial at the start of preseason training? Just for the fun of it I guess. Nothing like a nice stroll in the park.

BTW, 10.45 is NOT a very quick time for a sportsman that requires elite endurance.

Angus Brayshaw's weaknesses coming into the draft was that he needed to work on his endurance.

Your getting too worked over something thats hardly an issue regarding to Oliver.

Dunn Frost Jetta

Stretch TMac Salem

Vince Tyson Brayshaw

Kent Garland Watts

Garlett Hogan Petracca

Gawn, Jones, Viney

VDB Trengove Oliver Melksham

For the talls. Yes, maybe even 2 years and even longer for ruck depth. For the mids and half forward/half back we've got a few options.

Grimes, JKH, Harmes, Stretch (who'd I'd have best 22, going for an extra runner over Frost), ANB, Newton, Mitch White, Michie all have something to offer as depth. Every one of those had at least 1 good game of AFL last year and should be better this year, particularly the younger guys. I'd add Kennedy to that list as well. There's some options for the midfield, forward and backline particularly if it's a matter of them filling roles they can perform.

Oliver is another addition who should be able to come in and show a bit at some stage. And if he gets back out there Trengove might have something to offer at a minimum as depth. Wagner could surprise as well.

With the talls it's a reliance on Spencer for the ruck, then probably Frost down back and combination of Pedersen, Dawes and Frost for the key forwards and 2nd ruck positions. Although Max King, Weideman and Oscar Mc particularly could be considered, all 3 should at least show something in the VFL.

I'm much more concerned about the best 6 or so players being up to a high level (say Hogan, Jones, Vince, Viney, McDonald, ?Tyson/Salem/Gawn etc) and the next 10 being above average and able to step up when required than who will round out the bottom 6 spots. Freo finished top of the ladder carrying a few duds, Richmond have no depth and were 5th and even Hawthorn's depth isn't all that flash, they just play well in the system and fill the roles whilst some excellent players take up the slack if they are missing one of their many superstars.

We have come a long way but I say we're still another season away because the likes of White, Harmes, Stretch, ANB etc will have another season under their belts. I think they will all become good players, but another season means better fitness and less inconsistency.

Grimes career is over.

JKH the jury is still out, I for one hope he makes it. (I still remember two preseasons ago against the Tigers).

Newton and Michie have potential but need to be more consistent. Having said that Michie was unlucky at times this season.

Oliver and The Weed look the goods but we should consider anything they do this year as a bonus.

I know you excluded talls, it's an interesting one. Dawes is lucky to be getting a game according to many including myself but for lack of better options does. Pedo when fit plays his role but is only keeping the seat warm. Frost I hope can break back into the side after injury and be allowed to settle in one position, hopefully fullback.

From AFL site... Best 22.

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Colin GarlandHB: Christian Salem, Lynden Dunn, Jake MelkshamC: Angus Brayshaw, Nathan Jones, Dom TysonHF: Dean Kent, Jesse Hogan, Christian PetraccaF: Jeff Garlett, Chris Dawes, Jack WattsFoll: Max Gawn, Bernie Vince, Jack VineyInt: Sam Frost, Aaron vandenBerg, Heritier Lumumba, Tom Bugg

DEPTHKey-position defenders: Oscar McDonaldGeneral defenders: Jack Grimes, Dean Terlich, Josh Wagner*Key-position forwards: Liam Hulett, Cameron Pedersen, Sam WeidemanGeneral forwards: Jay Kennedy-Harris, Jayden Hunt, Billy Stretch, Joel Smith*Midfielders: James Harmes*, Matt Jones, Viv Michie*, Alex Neal-Bullen, Ben Newton, Clayton Oliver, Jack Trengove, Mitch White*,Rucks: Jake Spencer, Mitchell King, Max King*

Melbourne's team is starting to look a lot more promising and secure. The backline is consolidated with Essendon recruit Jake Melksham to add further competitiveness and run and carry away from the contest. Christian Petracca's inclusion should be a major fillip for the Demons after he missed his entire first season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The points of contention start on the bench with Greater Western Sydney recruit Tom Bugg earning a game over line-breakers Ben Kennedy and Billy Stretch. Jack Grimes can count himself unlucky not to be picked, while Jack Trengove's injury history rules him out of the mix. Alex Neal-Bullen, Jay Kennedy-Harris and Clayton Oliver should all push for regular senior appearances in 2016. – Ben Guthrie

Team looks good however falls away quickly with a few injuries.

The only 2 players in the depth column that can actually hold their own in the starting 22 is Cam Pederson and vandenberg.

The others still need 2+ years of experience or are just not good enough.

We need that number to grow to 5-6.

Also, no point putting to much pressure on 1st and 2nd year players.

Even though I'm not going to hold my breath, I believe trengove is super important to the 2017 campaign.