Delistings/trades at end of the season

[Ted Lasso 19,586]

Wunders, hed cost a fortune and we'd be bettrr served building from within and savimg that money for hogan

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

  On 15/06/2015 at 00:17, olisik said:

Let me spell this out for u

WE ARNT [censored] GETTING DANGERFIELD!

*you, *aren't. Spell correctly if you're trying to be a condescending, shouty brat.

[Key Deefender 143]

I can't fathom those of you who still want to trade out Jack Watts. I agree his form since day one has fluctuated wildly and his lack of hardness has been rightly criticized along the way, however I believe over the past few weeks he has been finally making inroads to eliminate this glaring chink in his armour. There has still been the odd hiccup, but he now appears to be consciously making every effort to impact a contest. However almost even more importantly than this, is that he is still the best finisher in the team. Some of his decision-making and executions are sublime and he rarely either picks a wrong option or fails to deliver on that option.

We have had a team of ball butchers for way too long and most, if not all, these serial offenders should be rightly moved on, perhaps leaving a couple for depth and great clubmanship - eg: Grimes - if he wants to stay.

From what I have read here on these boards, but not from what I know, it seems Brendan McCartney, one of the games best developers, has taken him on as a bit of a project. He has had him now for just 11 games and part of a pre-season. Maybe it is beginning to bear some fruit and Jack is finally getting the proper coaching development he has never had.

For a team that is trying to eliminate turnovers, the ability to seek and find a teammate in a position to hurt the opposition is a priceless commodity that should not be traded out lightly if at all - especially in a guy 196cm tall and likely still growing into his body. I think Watts is finally removing some of the basketballer's lack of physicality but retaining the elements of that sport's ability to read the play and have the peripheral vision and skillset to deliver perfectly to a teammate.

It is certainly early days, in terms of consistency with his new found physicality and urgency. There will still be times when we will think he should have gone harder, and we need to accept that he will never be one of the game's real hard men, however I sense Jack Watts may now be finally coming into his own. I will watch the rest of his season with interest and then expect and back a further full pre-season under the tutoring of Brendan McCartney to finally enable him to deliver on his undeniable talent.

Why trade that away?

[dazzledavey36 56,259]

  On 15/06/2015 at 00:17, olisik said:

Let me spell this out for u

WE ARNT [censored] GETTING DANGERFIELD!

Let me spell this out for you.

WE AREN'T [censored] GETTING A PRIORITY PICK!!

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,504]

Sloane resigns.

[mo64 5,910]

Dangerfield's manager all but confirmed that it's Adelaide or Geelong, and money isn't the issue. Paul Connors said that being close to his family in Moggs Creek was a huge motivation, and when asked if that meant Geelong, Connors said "yes".

Doesn't look like we'll be getting a high profile free agent or quality out of contracted player next year.

[olisik 4,060]

  On 15/06/2015 at 01:49, Jesse Christ said:

*you, *aren't. Spell correctly if you're trying to be a condescending, shouty brat.

Hows no sound?

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,504]

  On 15/06/2015 at 02:00, mo64 said:

Dangerfield's manager all but confirmed that it's Adelaide or Geelong, and money isn't the issue. Paul Connors said that being close to his family in Moggs Creek was a huge motivation, and when asked if that meant Geelong, Connors said "yes".

Doesn't look like we'll be getting a high profile free agent or quality out of contracted player next year.

The Hawks would be in the mix, Mitch Clark was going home too. Hawks will land either Danger or Treloar.

[olisik 4,060]

  On 15/06/2015 at 01:53, dazzledavey36 said:

Let me spell this out for you.

WE AREN'T [censored] GETTING A PRIORITY PICK!!

I admit a PP is an outside chance but Dangerfields Manager has all but said it is either Geelong or Adelaide.

IF we do get 4 wins or below i would be dissapointed in the club not doing everything possible to get us back on the right track, one of those being applying for a PP.

You can be all high and mighty and against it but personally i want our club to put pride aside do everything god damn possible to give us the best chance of making finals next year.

Edited June 15, 2015 by olisik

[Little Richard 6,265]

  On 15/06/2015 at 01:51, Key Deefender said:

I can't fathom those of you who still want to trade out Jack Watts. I agree his form since day one has fluctuated wildly and his lack of hardness has been rightly criticized along the way, however I believe over the past few weeks he has been finally making inroads to eliminate this glaring chink in his armour. There has still been the odd hiccup, but he now appears to be consciously making every effort to impact a contest. However almost even more importantly than this, is that he is still the best finisher in the team. Some of his decision-making and executions are sublime and he rarely either picks a wrong option or fails to deliver on that option.

We have had a team of ball butchers for way too long and most, if not all, these serial offenders should be rightly moved on, perhaps leaving a couple for depth and great clubmanship - eg: Grimes - if he wants to stay.

From what I have read here on these boards, but not from what I know, it seems Brendan McCartney, one of the games best developers, has taken him on as a bit of a project. He has had him now for just 11 games and part of a pre-season. Maybe it is beginning to bear some fruit and Jack is finally getting the proper coaching development he has never had.

For a team that is trying to eliminate turnovers, the ability to seek and find a teammate in a position to hurt the opposition is a priceless commodity that should not be traded out lightly if at all - especially in a guy 196cm tall and likely still growing into his body. I think Watts is finally removing some of the basketballer's lack of physicality but retaining the elements of that sport's ability to read the play and have the peripheral vision and skillset to deliver perfectly to a teammate.

It is certainly early days, in terms of consistency with his new found physicality and urgency. There will still be times when we will think he should have gone harder, and we need to accept that he will never be one of the game's real hard men, however I sense Jack Watts may now be finally coming into his own. I will watch the rest of his season with interest and then expect and back a further full pre-season under the tutoring of Brendan McCartney to finally enable him to deliver on his undeniable talent.

Why trade that away?

The extremely frustrating thing is that this is an all too familiar pattern.

He has some very good traits, most notably time in the contest and amazing awareness, but as you say his form fluctuates wildly. He tantalises with a patch of good games every single year and has the equipment to be an amazing player.

My feelings toward Watts fluctuate like his performances - sometimes I'll scream for him to be traded and other times I kind of like him. There is no doubt that if he can get it together for a period of time, he's a player that we really need to hold onto.

At this stage, all we can do is hope that Roos, McCartney and co have gotten through to him and he consistently performs like he did last night. If he does, people will forget the first part of his career fairly quickly I think, much the same as happened with Goddard.

[MadAsHell 4,217]

  On 15/06/2015 at 01:51, Key Deefender said:

I can't fathom those of you who still want to trade out Jack Watts. I agree his form since day one has fluctuated wildly and his lack of hardness has been rightly criticized along the way, however I believe over the past few weeks he has been finally making inroads to eliminate this glaring chink in his armour. There has still been the odd hiccup, but he now appears to be consciously making every effort to impact a contest. However almost even more importantly than this, is that he is still the best finisher in the team. Some of his decision-making and executions are sublime and he rarely either picks a wrong option or fails to deliver on that option.

We have had a team of ball butchers for way too long and most, if not all, these serial offenders should be rightly moved on, perhaps leaving a couple for depth and great clubmanship - eg: Grimes - if he wants to stay.

From what I have read here on these boards, but not from what I know, it seems Brendan McCartney, one of the games best developers, has taken him on as a bit of a project. He has had him now for just 11 games and part of a pre-season. Maybe it is beginning to bear some fruit and Jack is finally getting the proper coaching development he has never had.

For a team that is trying to eliminate turnovers, the ability to seek and find a teammate in a position to hurt the opposition is a priceless commodity that should not be traded out lightly if at all - especially in a guy 196cm tall and likely still growing into his body. I think Watts is finally removing some of the basketballer's lack of physicality but retaining the elements of that sport's ability to read the play and have the peripheral vision and skillset to deliver perfectly to a teammate.

It is certainly early days, in terms of consistency with his new found physicality and urgency. There will still be times when we will think he should have gone harder, and we need to accept that he will never be one of the game's real hard men, however I sense Jack Watts may now be finally coming into his own. I will watch the rest of his season with interest and then expect and back a further full pre-season under the tutoring of Brendan McCartney to finally enable him to deliver on his undeniable talent.

Why trade that away?

Watts was one of our best last night. After his dropped mark against Collingwood I thought he was very good also, and I thought he was one of our best in Round 1 v Gold Coast. He's our best users of the footy and from all reports is an absolute great bloke who loves the club, Roos, McCartney & Goodwin.

The issue we face with Jack is his form fluctuations, and the fact that if we keep him, he's a free agent at the end of 2016 and if he were to walk we may loose him for less then we could get for him if we were to trade him at the end of this year?

The other problem I think is that to me, I think he & Howe are competing for the one spot, the third tall forward who's also agile enough to push up the ground, but can still take a mark and kick a goal. Howe certainly a better contested mark and goal kicker. Watts is a much better user of the footy and over the last two weeks has shown an ability to win his own ball at times in the middle. Both can push up onto a wing or half back, so which way do we go?

I don't have the answers. Howe could get us more in a trade this year. But he's one of the few highlight reels the club has, especially with young fans, and as our midfield gets better, he could really prosper from better supply. But same could be said for Watts.

So for me it's one or the other. If Howe signs on the dotted line soon, then I think we should trade Watts. If we trade Howe out I hope we keep Jack and back him in all the way!

[Redleg 42,131]

  On 14/06/2015 at 21:27, Lucifer said:

I would cancel my membership!

So would I and my Foxtel subscription as well and my MCC and AFL memberships too.

[Dockett 32 1,239]

Don't have a clue about delistings ( really couldn't care) but rather than misuse money on Dangerfield that could be better used elsewhere , how about we immediately tie up Hogan for the next 6 years making him the first $10million dollar man, then get fair dinkum about building a team around him Brayshaw, Tyson, Viney , McDonald, Pretracca , Salem, Toumpas and the other quality kids on our list.

The depression Melbourne supporters have had to deal with for the past 50 years will be nothing compared to the loss of Hogan IMO.

The biggest shot in the arm Melbourne supporters could get would be having young Jessie done and dusted for a long period. After that I couldn't give a stuff what happens for the remainder as the course would be set.

[MadAsHell 4,217]

  On 15/06/2015 at 04:02, Dockett 32 said:

Don't have a clue about delistings ( really couldn't care) but rather than misuse money on Dangerfield that could be better used elsewhere , how about we immediately tie up Hogan for the next 6 years making him the first $10million dollar man, then get fair dinkum about building a team around him Brayshaw, Tyson, Viney , McDonald, Pretracca , Salem, Toumpas and the other quality kids on our list.

The depression Melbourne supporters have had to deal with for the past 50 years will be nothing compared to the loss of Hogan IMO.

The biggest shot in the arm Melbourne supporters could get would be having young Jessie done and dusted for a long period. After that I couldn't give a stuff what happens for the remainder as the course would be set.

Spot on!

I've now come to the view that we may just look for an outside mid with pace = Yarran

And one of either a young ruckman = Gorringe

Or a young third tall rebounding defender for post Dunn/Garland = Plowman

Get Yarran & one of the other two, then go to the draft.

Howe, Grimes, Fitzpatrick for trade. Starting to warm to the idea of holding onto Toumpas & Watts.

[Wunders 397]

  On 15/06/2015 at 01:32, Sir Paul Roos said:

Wunders, hed cost a fortune and we'd be bettrr served building from within and savimg that money for hogan

I dont actually think we have a chance at him so its a moot discussion, but i think the Melbourne FC needs a big name signing to help show the footy world we are on the up (finally). Hogan, Vandenburg, Petracca and Brayshaw = Super exciting for me!

I just wonder who we are paying to get near to 70% of our salary cap let alone 92% (or whatever it is). I like the development from within theory, but also see the truly A grade mid for only $$$ as something worth chasing (especially if it equals more wins, which should equal Hogan staying).

  On 15/06/2015 at 04:41, AngryAtCasey said:

Spot on!

I've now come to the view that we may just look for an outside mid with pace = Yarran (I see this as very achievable - Yarran of the half back flank [think about him and garlett=besties which may help too]).

And one of either a young ruckman = Gorringe Gawn for me, we don't actually know if Gorringe is any good.

Or a young third tall rebounding defender for post Dunn/Garland = Plowman Oscar Mac/Frost (not sure we need it, but who knows - really want another key forward with talent to partner up with hogan).

Get Yarran & one of the other two, then go to the draft.

Howe, Grimes, Fitzpatrick for trade (will be interesting years end to see what happens here). Starting to warm to the idea of holding onto Toumpas & Watts (Agreed keep both Toump and Watts).

Yarran all the way! Pick 4 & 50 ish for Yarran and their pick 20 & 65ish?

[ChaserJ 5,192]

  On 15/06/2015 at 04:41, AngryAtCasey said:

Spot on!

I've now come to the view that we may just look for an outside mid with pace = Yarran

And one of either a young ruckman = Gorringe

Or a young third tall rebounding defender for post Dunn/Garland = Plowman

Get Yarran & one of the other two, then go to the draft.

Howe, Grimes, Fitzpatrick for trade. Starting to warm to the idea of holding onto Toumpas & Watts.

Would love us to try and shake Tomlinson out of GWS. Some sort of combination of he and Plowman or Hampton would make me very happy.

[Dockett 32 1,239]

Yep there are a number of secondary options, but only one absolutely required signing "Jesse Hogan". Letting this one slip would bring serious pain.

[MadAsHell 4,217]

  On 15/06/2015 at 04:53, Wunders said:

And one of either a young ruckman = Gorringe Gawn for me, we don't actually know if Gorringe is any good.

Or a young third tall rebounding defender for post Dunn/Garland = Plowman Oscar Mac/Frost (not sure we need it, but who knows - really want another key forward with talent to partner up with hogan).

Get Yarran & one of the other two, then go to the draft.

Howe, Grimes, Fitzpatrick for trade (will be interesting years end to see what happens here). Starting to warm to the idea of holding onto Toumpas & Watts (Agreed keep both Toump and Watts).

From what I've seen of Gorringe, and I'll admit it isn't heaps. He seems an aggresive style ruckman who'll really smash in at the ruck contest, and he's still yet to fully develop. He can also take a mark. Not saying I'd bring him in as our number 1 ruck, but I wouldn't mind bringing him in for competition with Gawn. Spencer doesn't inspire me with confidence as our back up to Gawn going forward.

As for Plowman, I see him in a different light to both Frost & Oscar. I see both them as genuine key position defenders, and when fit I'd have Frost in the 22 with T. Mac, Dunn & Garland. Plowman is more in the Sam Fisher type mould where he'd be playing on a third tall rather then one of the two keys, and he's a guy who's hands it'd be good to get the ball into when coming out of defence.

But I'm happy to draft one of those positions & trade in the other. Will be another interesting off season.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

We need to be careful at the end of the season. With star players re-signing and the few others left signalling intentions to stay or play somewhere that isn't Melbourne we need to evaluate what's left and whether it will be worth it.

There will be some young players floating around who might be worth a look, particularly at GWS and Gold Coast. Their star players won't come but there are still come quality players up there who are either not getting a run, out of form or have struggled with injuries who would be well worth a look for the right price. I'm sure if we shake the tree hard enough something decent will fall out.

But I agree with the others also that our top priority should be to hold on to the good young kids we already have and that we draft shrewdly again as well. If we look at how we did last year then Brayshaw and Vanders look to be great players for our future, Stretch and ANB are progressing well even if they are still a little green and, once fit, Petracca should slot in nicely. If we can draft 5 worthwhile players and nab a decent free agent or two then we will be looking good.

[Dockett 32 1,239]

Finally got an A grader who we just have to keep. He kicks 5 on his own ,the rest of the club cant kick 5 between them. Administration - get it done or resign.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

  On 15/06/2015 at 05:25, Dockett 32 said:

Finally got an A grader who we just have to keep. He kicks 5 on his own ,the rest of the club cant kick 5 between them. Administration - get it done or resign.

I'd even argue Brayshaw is well on his way to being an A grade player for us as well. Lots to like about these kids.

[old dee 24,075]

  On 15/06/2015 at 05:17, Wiseblood said:

We need to be careful at the end of the season. With star players re-signing and the few others left signalling intentions to stay or play somewhere that isn't Melbourne we need to evaluate what's left and whether it will be worth it.

There will be some young players floating around who might be worth a look, particularly at GWS and Gold Coast. Their star players won't come but there are still come quality players up there who are either not getting a run, out of form or have struggled with injuries who would be well worth a look for the right price. I'm sure if we shake the tree hard enough something decent will fall out.

But I agree with the others also that our top priority should be to hold on to the good young kids we already have and that we draft shrewdly again as well. If we look at how we did last year then Brayshaw and Vanders look to be great players for our future, Stretch and ANB are progressing well even if they are still a little green and, once fit, Petracca should slot in nicely. If we can draft 5 worthwhile players and nab a decent free agent or two then we will be looking good.

I like the dream wiseblood.

That is all i have left.

[rjay 25,419]

  On 15/06/2015 at 04:53, Wunders said:

I dont actually think we have a chance at him so its a moot discussion, but i think the Melbourne FC needs a big name signing to help show the footy world we are on the up (finally). Hogan, Vandenburg, Petracca and Brayshaw = Super exciting for me!

I just wonder who we are paying to get near to 70% of our salary cap let alone 92% (or whatever it is). I like the development from within theory, but also see the truly A grade mid for only $$$ as something worth chasing (especially if it equals more wins, which should equal Hogan staying).

Yarran all the way! Pick 4 & 50 ish for Yarran and their pick 20 & 65ish?

Winning games and moving up the ladder is the only way to show this 'Wunders'.

[Beats 190]

Well I made it half way through the season without looking at this thread, but can't see us finishing much higher than 13th (if we sneak a few wins). Although the team is better placed than last year, there will be big turnover in 2015 and 2016. I decided to procrastinate and do some analysis of the list and trade period as I see it atm.

De-listings, Trades and FA

I believe that players currently out of contract at the end of the 2015 season are Viney, Toumpas, Gawn, Howe, Pedo, Jamar(UFA), Cross, Garland (UFA), Mckenzie (RFA?), Riley, Bail, Hunt, and Fitzy. (apologies if I've missed a recent re-signing).

Of those players I'm guessing that Viney gets 3-4 years, 2 for Toumpas, Gawn and Howe (unless traded), 1 for Pedo. Being ruthless would see Jamar and Cross step aside to let younger players have opportunities (be retired). Garland to go seeking success as a FA. Mckenzie, Riley, Bail and Hunt to be thanked for their efforts. Fitzy left sweating on whether we pick up a better big option in the trade period (if we do de-list).

Draft picks after FA and De-listings

For simplicity I'm assuming we can't afford to pay a contracted player out and that we go with my changes above and de-list fitzy prior to the trade period, rather than making him sweat on whether we bring another tall in. We will upgrade Vandenberg. That leaves us with 7 list spots prior to trade week. Garland at 27 y/o could potentially net us a pick after our 2nd round at best and a pick after our 3rd at worst.

I folded and did the AFL ladder predictor, with us finishing 14th on percentage. For simplicity, assuming no other team gets FA and there are no 'expansion associated picks' in this draft (those picks that could be used in any draft within the next 5 years) we would end up with picks 5, 23, 24, 42, 60, 78, 96. etc.

Players OOC at end of 2016

Excluding the players out of contract in 2015 listed above I believe the players currently out of contract at the end of the 2016 (unless I've missed an extension) are Spencer (UFA), Watts (UFA), Grimes (UFA), Jetta (UFA), Mcdonald (RFA), Trengove (RFA), Stretch, Frost, Kent, ANB, Tyson, Newton, Michie, Garlett, Terlich, Dawes, M.Jones and Vince.

UFA is 2008 draft and before, RFA is 2009-2010 draft.

For the record of the players currently out of contract at the end of 2015 who would be FA if re-signing to the end of 2016 are Howe, Gawn and Fitzy.

Tradeable players

The point of the OOC 2016 players is to show who we should look at trading before they become an UFA/ RFA. For me the only one that's a definite keep is Mcdonald. Watts, Grimes, Trengove, Howe and Gawn may hold some value. Howe may pull us a pick in the 15-20 range, Watts maybe something in the 20's. Would prefer to keep the others, rather than receive chips for them in a trade.

Outside of Howe and Watts I can't see any players that we can afford to give up that another team would want, possibly Dawes for a pick in the 30's.

Gaps in the list

The strategy should be to fill any potential gaps in the list through the trade period, allowing us to pick best available in the draft.

Either a number 1 ruck or ruck/ fwd - Jamar, Spencer, Gawn, Fitzpatrick, Frost, King® and Pedersen is not a list that gives me confidence for the long term.

Genuine A-grade quality – if we can get it anywhere on the park it would be a big plus, preferably a mid but a forward would do to. Someone with at least 4 years left on the clock.

My dream Scenario

Howe and our third round (42) to GWS for their first, third and fourth round (12ish, 49ish and 67ish)

Dawes to Brisbane for their third round (40ish).

Watts + Garland compo (24) for Dixon and GC fourth rd (57ish)

Our first (5), GWS first (12ish) and our second (23) for a quality young mid (think Hannebery, Treloar etc.), a pick between 13-22 (17) and a fourth rounder (72)

In: Dixon, Hannebery, 17, 40, 49, 57, 67, 72

Out: Watts, Dawes, Howe, 5, 23, 24, 42

The draft and f/s bidding

We would enter the draft with picks 17, 40, 49, 57, 60, 67, 72, 78, 96, 114 etc. however thanks to the beauty of the new f/s bidding system I would expect some changes in our favour.

Purely speculating on draftee values:

If Sydney pick up Dunkley for a top 5 pick and Mills in the top 10 they will be out of the draft after the second round and potentially out of the first round next year as well, hence the trade for Hannebery above, which is essentially Hannebery + 57 for Mills and Dunkley (after the 20% discount is applied). It allows them to stay in 2^nd and 3^rd round.

If the trade for Howe goes through GWS will lose their second for Hopper and Kennedy (late 1^st / early 2^nd rounders each) and will likely push their later picks to the back of the draft, as well as losing picks in the next draft. (GWS’s list is contracting over the next few years so they will be looking to minimise their draft presence). This will push our picks 40+ up a spot.

Brisbane taking Keays (mid 20’s) will push our picks 40+ up again.

Unless a f/s or academy prospect comes from the clouds this is how I expect it will happen.

It’s a shallow draft, GWS and GC have contracting lists and will look to only take 3 in the draft, as will Sydney due to f/s. Would expect to enter the draft with picks 17, 38ish, 46ish, 54ish, 57ish and 62ish and a bunch of picks in the 60’s and 70’s (due to most teams taking few prospects in a shallow draft). After f/s bidding and due to a shallow draft we could potentially end up with 6 picks within 60. Add two delisted free agents to be named at a later date and that’s all the changes.

TL/DR + To sum up

Pointless mid season procrastination and speculation on the upcoming trade period resulting in the following changes:

Out (11)

Garland(FA), Jamar(ret), Cross(ret), Hunt(del), Bail(del), Mckenzie(del), Fitzy(del), Riley(del), Watts(trade), Howe(trade), Dawes(trade),

In

Hannebery, Dixon, Vandenberg(upgrade), delisted FA #1, delisted FA #2, picks 17, 38, 46, 54, 57, 62.

Probably more picks than you'd like at the back end, but prefer picks 54+ to the delistees.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,504]

Beats....I like your thinking. One thing I would add with regards to Grimes and Dawes as they are contracted until the end of next season is how much is left on their contracts. Grimes is in and out of the side and if Frost were up and about id like to think he was playing before Dawes. A couple of players are taking home ridiculous amounts of money and that should/will be considered when making these decisions.