Emma Quayle's 2014 Phantom Draft

[obbafan 128]

No personal ego is what makes Emma the best. Her articles are about what makes each candidate an individual. She is fascinated by the extraordinary range of personal experiences that lead to a young boy being so committed to a game that they, as teenagers, work way beyond average behavior.

She is a treasure.

[Its Time for Another 4,225]

If the Saints end up taking Petracca, I'll say well done to them. They would've made a fool out of 3AW, the Herald Sun boys, AFL.com.au and EQ at the Age.

I doubt Emma's changed her pick just because 3AW and the others went with McCartin, she's a pro and got contacts.

Initially I thought the Saints leaked to build hype. I think now they started out with a plan to keep things under wraps to build interest, but as more were sold on Petracca they knew they needed to change their fans opinions. Good debate and suspense is good for them. Making it look like they didn't make a call until the last minute and were indecisive doesn't look so great.

As for the rest, GWS might well go Marchbank over Goddard, it's hard to see them not picking one of the talls. Wright to GCS is building momentum. Sam Day can move to centre half back I like that move. De Goey to the Pies. Ellis to Richmond no matter what. But a lot of picks 10-20 are dependent on what comes before.

18 picks from 21 to our next at 40. Steele is locked to GWS, Hiscox to Sydney. Lamb, Touk Miller, Menadue, Neal-Bullen seem unlikely to last. Same with Oscar McDonald and Reece McKenzie, as the next best tall forward and tall defender I'd say they'd be hard for every team to pass. That's 8 more. Hopefully someone high on our draft list gets through to 40.

Nice work GRRM!!

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

No, they are 'on the mark' - Emma does her 'phantom draft' on what her contacts tell her will happen, not what she thinks players should go at.

And just because everyone gets something wrong, does not mean it is any less wrong. It just means that everyone is wrong.

your pedantry is tiresome

every recruiter in the country would have picked Morton. Therefore, BP was in no way carp at his job. It's very simple. Whether other clubs would have turned Morton into a better player than we did can never be known - but the fact we had the worst environment for development imaginable is indisputable. Which part of this do you disagree with specifically? Or are you just disagreeing for fun?

[Slartibartfast 17,326]

your pedantry is tiresome?

Prepare for the "unnecessarily personal" defence.

I've had it. It doesn't hurt unless used in response to RPFC when he is "unnecessarily personal".

He doesn't like being called a pedant.

BTW, bring back Olivia. Please.

Edited November 30, 2014 by Baghdad Bob

[Moneider96 1,045]

Prepare for the "unnecessarily personal" defence.

I've had it. It doesn't hurt unless used in response to RPFC when he is "unnecessarily personal".

He doesn't like being called a pedant.

BTW, bring back Olivia. Please.

I agree with the Olivia part.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I agree with the Olivia part.

I've already told you lot that Olivia has had her time. Notice the change though.

[Nasher 33,616]

your pedantry is tiresome

every recruiter in the country would have picked Morton. Therefore, BP was in no way carp at his job. It's very simple. Whether other clubs would have turned Morton into a better player than we did can never be known - but the fact we had the worst environment for development imaginable is indisputable. Which part of this do you disagree with specifically? Or are you just disagreeing for fun?

Gysberts and Cook were indisputably poor picks, surely?

And didn't Cameron pick Morton?

[ThreeOneSix 954]

BP was just terrible, I was done with him after Strauss.

Unfortunately had to sit by and watch us take Lucas Cook.

I'd of went no where near Morton, Strauss, Cook or Gysberts.

Parker and Sloane were unforgivable to overlook.

Shuey was an obvious selection for a club deprived of leadership.

BP made some shocking selections, I am glad he is history.

MFC are well and truly back on track now, but BP set us back a LONG way.

As for Emma, I have a lot of time for her early work on big footy.

I feel she paid her dues, and I don't mind her inside knowledge.

Edited November 30, 2014 by ThreeOneSix

[Lucifers Hero 39,916]

and further evidence that the draft generally picks itself up the top end.. which is why people who claim 'Prendergast picked the wrong blokes' are off the mark

Ok. Show me where any other forecaster got even close to her!!

She had the first 9 in the right order and 19 of the top 20 right. Most still had Petracca at 1 and she had McCartin pegged to StK some time ago. She didn't get lucky she had solid info and analyzed well. Didn't guess like so many others. She is the best in her business.

Edited November 30, 2014 by Lucifer's Hero

[nutbean 8,838]

your pedantry is tiresome

every recruiter in the country would have picked Morton. Therefore, BP was in no way carp at his job. It's very simple. Whether other clubs would have turned Morton into a better player than we did can never be known - but the fact we had the worst environment for development imaginable is indisputable. Which part of this do you disagree with specifically? Or are you just disagreeing for fun?

I have come to the conclusion that we the supporters ( ably aided by the media) have the wrong emphasis and expectation on the draft.

I think the recruiters got it right with Morton, Scully, Trengove, Watts ( you can debate NikNat) and Toumpas. They were considered the best available by most scribes and experts at the pick we took them at the time we took them.

The problem is that we have limited exposed form ( 18 year olds) with no real knowledge as to whether they will develop into top line footballers or if more moderately rated footballers will turn out to be far superior ( think Fyfe). Add to that the clubs the high draft picks go usually lose more than the win, may have poor development, poor coaching and no real leaders or senior mentors to help the kids develop.

So we expect these highly rated kids to turn out to be world beaters when in reality there will be busts in the top 3 that have happened almost every draft and will continue happen.

Will we moan if Pickett turns out to be the best of the bunch, taken one pick lower than us ?

[nutbean 8,838]

Ok. Show me where any other forecaster got even close to her!!

She had the first 9 in the right order and 19 of the top 20 right. Most still had Petracca at 1 and she had McCartin pegged to StK some time ago. She didn't get lucky she had solid info and analyzed well. Didn't guess like so many others. She is the best in her business.

Again... All she is doing is guessing the order at which they will be called out. That doesn't make her the best in the business at picking talent. That makes her the best in the business at getting information as to what is considered the best at a given moment in time with input from clubs and recruiters she talks to.

The best in the business is the analyst who had Oliver Wines at pick one. Or who had Bontempelli going higher or who had Fyfe as top 3 draft pick.

[jazza 1,323]

BP was just terrible, I was done with him after Strauss.

Unfortunately had to sit by and watch us take Lucas Cook.

I'd of went no where near Morton, Strauss, Cook or Gysberts.

Parker and Sloane were unforgivable to overlook.

Shuey was an obvious selection for a club deprived of leadership.

BP made some shocking selections, I am glad he is history.

MFC are well and truly back on track now, but BP set us back a LONG way.

As for Emma, I have a lot of time for her early work on big footy.

I feel she paid her dues, and I don't mind her inside knowledge.

Gysberts and Cook were indisputably poor picks, surely?

And didn't Cameron pick Morton?

OK.i will try to take few people through the drafting procedure.I have close contact with a local scout.

He worked at richmond and for all of one year he and the entire drafting crew were on Dom Cassisi.

Draft day comes and Dom is the number 1 prefered choice for the whole club.The "coach"at the time comes in and changes the pick to a player he thought would be better.My mate ended up getting the flick{along with other scouts}and the next day was picked up by another club.With more money and a better attitude to the scouts hard work over many miles and games seen.

He couldnt believe how much time and energy was spent on Cassisi,all the scouts had flown down and missed other games to tick off on the No1 pick for the club.

So we can blame anybody for our drafting,but ultimately it rests somewhere between the scouts and the coach.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Gysberts and Cook were indisputably poor picks, surely?

And didn't Cameron pick Morton?

That's a joke right? As in you are winding me up by being as pedantic as possible in reply to a post that complained of pedantry?

Cameron/BP/whoever has no bearing on the point I was making

I am talking about the top5 region which is far more self-selecting than late-first-round and beyond. Watts, Morton, Scully, Trengove, Toumpas, McLean and Sylvia. Nothing wrong with those choices.

ain any case, 2 examples from a decade is hardly what you'd call a pattern

basically my point is that if in 5 years AB+CP aren't superstars we will have people claiming the current staff were a bunch of muppets who stuffed up the draft and that will be demonstrably silly

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Parker and Sloane were unforgivable to overlook.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Parker went at pick 40 and Sloane at 44! How can anybody rationalise that our club made a blunder there, obviously the prospect that they were on draft day held no bearing to the players they would ultimately become and ZERO clubs were able to see through that!

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Ok. Show me where any other forecaster got even close to her!!

She had the first 9 in the right order and 19 of the top 20 right. Most still had Petracca at 1 and she had McCartin pegged to StK some time ago. She didn't get lucky she had solid info and analyzed well. Didn't guess like so many others. She is the best in her business.

you've misinterpreted - I was in no way undermining EQ. I was pointing out the fact that she is able to nail it every year demonstrates that it is very clear to everybody in the inner circle of the drafting community that there is a set hierarchy of prospects, which means it is basically impossible to claim that any pick in the first 5-10 was a mistake unless somebody goes for a big smoky that didn't work. I can't think of anybody ever doing that in the first 5-10 BTW. Plenty didn't work out but they were all expected to be picked there. Even Richard Tambling.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Will we moan if Pickett turns out to be the best of the bunch, taken one pick lower than us ?

I won't, but the folks I am complaining about will. Just refer to the posters who mention Ollie Wines every single time they read the name Toumpas

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

The best in the business is the analyst who had Oliver Wines at pick one. Or who had Bontempelli going higher or who had Fyfe as top 3 draft pick.

but obviously these people dont exist - or at least they are never the ones in the position to make the call, which is further proof that the notion is basically impossible!

[nutbean 8,838]

basically my point is that if in 5 years AB+CP aren't superstars we will have people claiming the current staff were a bunch of muppets who stuffed up the draft and that will be demonstrably silly

The recruiters don't get five years ! The finger is already being pointed at the recruiters over Toumpas and that is after 2 seasons !

[nutbean 8,838]

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Parker went at pick 40 and Sloane at 44! How can anybody rationalise that our club made a blunder there, obviously the prospect that they were on draft day held no bearing to the players they would ultimately become and ZERO clubs were able to see through that!

Fyfe was not Freo's first choice so you can even claim that they made a mistake but got lucky.

[old dee 23,792]

Fyfe was not Freo's first choice so you can even claim that they made a mistake but got lucky.

I reckon recruiting 18 year old junior footballers is as much luck as anything else.

Sure you can take all the right steps and use all the "right" data and still come up a player who does not make it as a senior player.

[rpfc 28,503]

your pedantry is tiresome

every recruiter in the country would have picked Morton. Therefore, BP was in no way carp at his job. It's very simple. Whether other clubs would have turned Morton into a better player than we did can never be known - but the fact we had the worst environment for development imaginable is indisputable. Which part of this do you disagree with specifically? Or are you just disagreeing for fun?

Pedantry?

I have been saying this for two months: just because the 'experts' claim they know who are the top talent they will be wrong. History and bitter experience proves this.

Just because you 'think' all the other recruiters would have made so many mistakes - doesn't give credibility to your hypothetical.

We will never know who Fremantle would have taken with Pick 11 or 18 in 2009. All we know is that they chose Fyfe at 20.

And decisions like this is why we are where we are.

I don't begrudge Prendergast or Cameron or anyone who wants to do this job - it's why I don't get involved in the vitriol that gets directed at Prendergast on here.

But I am adamant that the mistakes that we made at the drafts between 2001 and 2011 (save for a couple of years) is why we have been so poor and why Roos has seen 19 changes to the primary list in his two off-seasons.

If you want to discuss ways to make sure a club doesn't have a decade like we have had - that would be great. I would raise the draft age, I would have more picks, a number of 'train on' selections, and the ability for the club to leave the finalisation of their list till the eve of the season.

[rpfc 28,503]

Prepare for the "unnecessarily personal" defence.

I've had it. It doesn't hurt unless used in response to RPFC when he is "unnecessarily personal".

He doesn't like being called a pedant.

BTW, bring back Olivia. Please.

At this point, BB - you are only making yourself seem immature.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Fyfe was not Freo's first choice so you can even claim that they made a mistake but got lucky.

Yeah some get lucky, and some are more consistently lucky and others consistently unlucky. Freo picked the right bloke.

There is certainly luck involved, and there is always having adequate development plans in place for the youngsters.

But some recruiting teams are luckier than others, and that comes down to making the right decisions, based on the information available. Our recruiters have made fundamental errors in assessing the qualities of the draftees, assessing how those qualities would be transposed into the game and in the strategic direction of the game (probably influenced by Bailey).

I am not a recruiting expert, I can't dedicate the hours required to make judgements on player X vs player Y but we pay people handsomely to collect and interpret that information and get results. We can't expect perfection when dealing with kids but we should expect to do much better than what we have done.

Losers always blame bad luck, we need to get better at recruiting.

[Macca 16,972]

The reality is that this draft like every other draft will be all over the place in terms of an accurate appraisal of the talent on offer. Time will tell.

Emma getting the draft order correct means diddly squat in the whole scheme of things - people here are getting excited about something they shouldn't be getting excited about. Honestly - who cares?

Perhaps Emma could tell us the "real" order? Now, that would be something to get excited about.

The odds are that 3 of the top 10 will be busts and 7 of the top 20 will be busts (in terms of expectations) Can we have one of these so called "experts" tell us who those 7 players are? Not in 8 years - now.

[Slartibartfast 17,326]

At this point, BB - you are only making yourself seem immature.

Ok. Can we agree that I'm immature, you are a pedant and we've both been unnecessarily personal.

It's probably all true and I can live with it.

Can you?