OK let's take your figures disregarding 2013. The average number of ACL reco's per year is 14. 4 of those are recurrent, 10 of them are new ACL's. How many players in the AFL? 700 odd? So 10 out of ~700 do a fist time ACL, how many players have had one already? 20? 30? 4 of those do an ACL. The risk is much higher for those who have had an ACL already. Expert opinion is the lowest form of evidence you can get.

Using 10 new ones per year that would mean somewhere between 50 and 100 players are on lists with a prior knee ACL injury. At 4 recurrences that is a reinjury rate of between 4 and 8 percent - hardly anything to your knickers in knot over

Using 10 new ones per year that would mean somewhere between 50 and 100 players are on lists with a prior knee ACL injury. At 4 recurrences that is a reinjury rate of between 4 and 8 percent - hardly anything to your knickers in knot over

Doubt there's 100 players in the AFL who've had an ACL reco. That's 1/7, so you reckon more than 6 on each list? Players with an ACL are more likely t have been delisted too, which means they wot show up in the recurrence figures anyhow. Lever is a risk, and one we sure as hell shouldn't take, given he's also very slow and doesn't fill a need for us.

Edited November 8, 201410 yr by TheoX

Just had a look at the actual numbers in prior years of graft ruptures at afl level. 2014 hasn't been released and 2013 discussed

2003 - 0

2004 - 2

2005 - 1

2006 - 4

2007 - 2

2008 - 4

2009 - 1

2010 - 0

2011 - 4

2012 - 1

Which gives my Off the top of head number was way way over, real average of recurrences at AFL level at 1.9 per year. In other words f#%k all

You originally said Lever is at no extra risk of doing an ACL than a player that hasn't. You're allowed to admit you're wrong.

Doubt there's 100 players in the AFL who've had an ACL reco. That's 1/7, so you reckon more than 6 on each list? Players with an ACL are more likely t have been delisted too, which means they wot show up in the recurrence figures anyhow. Lever is a risk, and one we sure as hell shouldn't take, given he's also very slow and doesn't fill a need for us.

Just been consummately proven to not really understand what you're talking about, illustrating that you're just jumping at shadows and skewing an argument because you favour McCartin.

You might prefer McCartin over Lever, but you're going to have to come up with a better reason if you're gonna convince anyone...

If you would like to view a scientific review on athletes returning from ACL injuries from 2010 check this link out.

It basically says that from evaluating 5770 athletes, keeping in mind that these aren't specific to AFL, around 90% returned to normal (or close to). Seems to think that the recovery rate (high) and return rates (lower) seem to suggest that there is a psychological link to those that make it back compared to those that don't.

In other articles - much high risk in young female athletes and some risk factors are muscular imbalance at the knee joint (hamstring/quadriceps).

Another study states a significantly higher rate of return for athletes younger than 30.

Overall the scientific community still have a ways to go to understand ACL injuries.

From everything I have read and from the recent medical statement on Jake Lever, it looks like he will make 100% recovery if he hasn't already and given the quality of training staff in the AFL, should reduce risk of recurrence even further.

After doing the research, I am all for taking Jake Lever in the draft. And word inside the club says they rate him very highly.

As opposed to a lumbering forward that can't kick?

A rangey wingman that can't win contested footy?

There's going to be a handful of red flags with whoever we choose at pick 3.

Lever is the best prospect in my opinion.

That is your description of macartin WOW

Hate to tell you but your bagging an almost certain Demon.

Will you still think that when we draft him?

He is one of the best kids in the country top 3 is a lock.

Hogan and macartin will be a forward line that will be scary and strong for the next 10 years.

Get on board

Good luck to the kid.

Too many red flags for a pick 3.

Easy pass.

Too many red flags?

There's one red flag, which is the fact that he's had a serious knee injury. After reading the article on the AFL website, he states that there's no evidence of damage to the ligament or the surrounding area which to me suggests he's made a full and successful recovery.

The fact that he's very young and has been so diligent with his rehab also means the ligaments, tendons and muscles surrounding the knee will be stronger.

Guys that have had a history with knees are the one's who clubs will worry about especially if there have been setbacks along the way.

This bloke Lever has done a knee in a freak training incident, has made a full recovery without setbacks and is now ready to have a full pre-season.

The severity of knee injuries and the chances for a reoccurrence changes on every individual. To think that Lever is as much of a risk previous draftees taken with a history of knee injuries is just ignorant. Of course there's an element of risk. As there is with any human being.

Nick Malceski did the same injury years ago. I don't hear anybody complaining about him as a player or what he's been able to achieve individually since.

I'd love Lever at our club. Perfect mix of character, aggression and skill.

I've been groupthunk in to wanting Lever. Just putting this out there so when we don't draft him and he turns out to be a gun I can bleat about it repetitively, even though I actually have no idea about the juniors at all.

I've been groupthunk in to wanting Lever. Just putting this out there so when we don't draft him and he turns out to be a gun I can bleat about it repetitively, even though I actually have no idea about the juniors at all.

I thought the groupthunk was flowing in the other direction. Must be the mysterious reverse groupthunk. Just goes to show ...

Well im seriously torn now..

McCartin or Lever either way I'll be happy.

It's really hard not to get seriously excited about Lever though. His character and drive is very very impressive. Screams of Luke Hodge all over.

McCartin will be given a bath next year as an afl key forward. Was he more highly rated as a junior than Boyd or Patton? A supposedly 1 in 10 year key forward my backside, there's been one of those every year for the past 5 years! HA!! Gotta love the draft hype.....

I keep hearing what a beast he is but he's smaller than both of them & neither have take the league by storm. He already has the yips kicking for goals (granted not technical problems but mental ones) which some say can be fixed, but I can't imagine it'll get any easier for him at afl level with TV cameras everywhere & at least 20k screaming supporters most weeks.

Oh, and he's a lock top 3 in a weak as draft.... Whoopie do..... Wasn't Daniel Rich a lock for top 3? Toumpas? Smart teams seem to take whoever they rank, power rankings & draft experts be damned!! And don't give me the Pendergast 'reaches' as examples, for each one of those there is a Pendlebury 'reach' by Collingwood or a Bontempli 'reach' by the Dogs. Neither were 'clearly' top 5 according to experts prior to the 'leaks' that they were going to be taken higher than expected.

Lever all the way for mine, he's the real afl standard player imo. I hope our recruiters agree, but if not I'll still support McCartin & hope I'm wrong and that he comes on faster than many of the other sure fire kpp 'superstars' of recent drafts, because we need to start moving up the ladder this year as far as I'm concerned.

McCartin will be given a bath next year as an afl key forward. Was he more highly rated as a junior than Boyd or Patton? A supposedly 1 in 10 year key forward my backside, there's been one of those every year for the past 5 years! HA!! Gotta love the draft hype.....

I keep hearing what a beast he is but he's smaller than both of them & neither have take the league by storm. He already has the yips kicking for goals (granted not technical problems but mental ones) which some say can be fixed, but I can't imagine it'll get any easier for him at afl level with TV cameras everywhere & at least 20k screaming supporters most weeks.

Oh, and he's a lock top 3 in a weak as draft.... Whoopie do..... Wasn't Daniel Rich a lock for top 3? Toumpas? Smart teams seem to take whoever they rank, power rankings & draft experts be damned!! And don't give me the Pendergast 'reaches' as examples, for each one of those there is a Pendlebury 'reach' by Collingwood or a Bontempli 'reach' by the Dogs. Neither were 'clearly' top 5 according to experts prior to the 'leaks' that they were going to be taken higher than expected.

Lever all the way for mine, he's the real afl standard player imo. I hope our recruiters agree, but if not I'll still support McCartin & hope I'm wrong and that he comes on faster than many of the other sure fire kpp 'superstars' of recent drafts, because we need to start moving up the ladder this year as far as I'm concerned.

He's a lot harder at it than the other 2 and his best form was last year in a pretty good draft. He looked a lot better prospect than Boyd to me but I'm not the expert just an observer like all of us on here.

I really like the look of Lever but wouldn't be disappointed with McCartin at all.

...and I would hope our recruiting guys aren't waiting for Knightmare, Paige and Emma's final predictions before they make their choice. Seriously though all teams take who they rank.

McCartin will be given a bath next year as an afl key forward. Was he more highly rated as a junior than Boyd or Patton? A supposedly 1 in 10 year key forward my backside, there's been one of those every year for the past 5 years! HA!! Gotta love the draft hype.....

I keep hearing what a beast he is but he's smaller than both of them & neither have take the league by storm. He already has the yips kicking for goals (granted not technical problems but mental ones) which some say can be fixed, but I can't imagine it'll get any easier for him at afl level with TV cameras everywhere & at least 20k screaming supporters most weeks.

Oh, and he's a lock top 3 in a weak as draft.... Whoopie do..... Wasn't Daniel Rich a lock for top 3? Toumpas? Smart teams seem to take whoever they rank, power rankings & draft experts be damned!! And don't give me the Pendergast 'reaches' as examples, for each one of those there is a Pendlebury 'reach' by Collingwood or a Bontempli 'reach' by the Dogs. Neither were 'clearly' top 5 according to experts prior to the 'leaks' that they were going to be taken higher than expected.

Lever all the way for mine, he's the real afl standard player imo. I hope our recruiters agree, but if not I'll still support McCartin & hope I'm wrong and that he comes on faster than many of the other sure fire kpp 'superstars' of recent drafts, because we need to start moving up the ladder this year as far as I'm concerned.

Who drafts a KPF with the expectation that they will perform consistently in their first year or two????

Is Lever really that slow or are people exaggerating?

Is Lever really that slow or are people exaggerating?

He ran what would be classified as a 'slow' 20 metre sprint I believe.

Meaning there's no way anyone should go near him.....

.....

.......

He ran what would be classified as a 'slow' 20 metre sprint I believe.

Meaning there's no way anyone should go near him.....

.....

.......

Watts ran a really quick one, so that stat is dead to me.

Saints take Brayshaw - Petracca and Lever to the dees . Id be happy with that . Lever seems like a future leader and a good size .

If you would like to view a scientific review on athletes returning from ACL injuries from 2010 check this link out.

It basically says that from evaluating 5770 athletes, keeping in mind that these aren't specific to AFL, around 90% returned to normal (or close to). Seems to think that the recovery rate (high) and return rates (lower) seem to suggest that there is a psychological link to those that make it back compared to those that don't.

In other articles - much high risk in young female athletes and some risk factors are muscular imbalance at the knee joint (hamstring/quadriceps).

Another study states a significantly higher rate of return for athletes younger than 30.

Overall the scientific community still have a ways to go to understand ACL injuries.

From everything I have read and from the recent medical statement on Jake Lever, it looks like he will make 100% recovery if he hasn't already and given the quality of training staff in the AFL, should reduce risk of recurrence even further.

After doing the research, I am all for taking Jake Lever in the draft. And word inside the club says they rate him very highly.

You are dealing in facts we have had to to deal with the curse for the last 50 years! I am a bit twitchy on choosing Lever.

Watts ran a really quick one, so that stat is dead to me.

It's a tough gig trying to convey sarcasm on DL at times.

Edited November 8, 201410 yr by stevethemanjordan

McCartin or Lever either way il be haply.

Its really hard not to get seriously excited about lever though. His character and drive is very very impressiv. Screams of Luke Hodge all over.

Well summarised DD.

I'd presume it's between these two - which will at least make the Wines/Toumpas parallels easier when we start tearing ourselves apart over the choice 2 years down the track.

(Meanwhile hoping that whoever we don't take plus Laverne don't turn out to be the pick of the bunch ...)

It's a tough gig trying to convey sarcasm on DL at times.

No, I got it, I was agreeing with you in my own way.

It's a tough gig trying to convey sarcasm on DL at times.

Is it?

I thought the groupthunk was flowing in the other direction. Must be the mysterious reverse groupthunk. Just goes to show ...

Personally, after reading all these threads on the drafting boards. I have been groupthunk into believing that all the players we could be looking have massive downsides. None of them are worthy of pick 3.

And no matter which one we take will be the wrong choice.

Personally, after reading all these threads on the drafting boards. I have been groupthunk into believing that all the players we could be looking have massive downsides. None of them are worthy of pick 3.

And no matter which one we take will be the wrong choice.

I reckon they will just stick a whole lot of marbles in a barrel and pick one out!