Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 12

[Demonland 71,270]

THE SCORE by Whispering Jack

Ten years ago Aaron Davey was drafted as a rookie by the Melbourne Football Club. He was a revelation instantly with his blistering pace - a feature not only of the attacking side of his game but, with his ability to run down opponents, he became a formidable weapon for his team in defending from the forward line. Over time, injuries took their toll on his body but he still had a glittering career at the club which included a "Bluey" Truscott Medal in 2009.

In a fashion, it was Davey who was the prototype player for the way in which the game evolved over the past decade with the demand for almost all players to have the capacity to run both ways and moreover, do it all day, albeit that the effort required in achieving this outcome makes rest and rotation of players necessary. Players with Davey's speed only but without the endurance, soon were forced to play lesser roles within a team structure or were superceded altogether.

The relevance of this in the context of the Queens Birthday fixture between Melbourne and Collingwood is that a decade ago it was the Magpies who were in the doldrums while the Demons were up near the top of the tree (they reached first place at the end of round 18, 2004) and the situation reversed itself very quickly over the course of the next few years.

There are a number of reasons why the teams changed places including financial stability, good management and recruiting but on the field, it was mainly Collingwood's ability to adapt in style and then to take the lead over the rest of the competition with its hard running midfield which resulted in a premiership in 2010 and regular top four placings in other years.

The record shows that Melbourne has languished behind the pack for far too long but this year, the changes to the defensive side of the team style introduced by new coach Paul Roos are starting to reap rewards. The flow of goals against has been stemmed and we are no longer seeing massive opposition scores on a weekly basis. Leaving aside the round 2 game against the Eagles (hopefully, an aberration) the team's percentage would now be sitting at around 90 compared to just over 50 last year.

The challenge is for the team to maintain its new found defensive intensity while at the same time develop more potency when going into attack. Against the top team last week, Melbourne gathered 421 disposals to 364 but they translated into only 43 inside 50s against 60.

You can maintain defensive pressure for only so long but, in the end, you need to include scoreboard pressure as well. When Melbourne successfully manages the next step, it will be able to take its place with the likes of Collingwood in the AFL scheme of things.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Collingwood at MCG Monday 9 June 2014 at 3.20pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 79 wins Collingwood 144 wins 5 drawn

At the MCG Melbourne 59 wins Collingwood 77 wins 3 drawn

Last Five Years Melbourne 0 wins Collingwood 4 wins 1 drawn

The Coaches: Roos 0 wins Buckley 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Channel 7 Fox Footy Channel (Live at 3.00pm)

Radio Triple M 3AW SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Melbourne $4.20 to win Collingwood $1.22 to win

LAST TIME THEY MET

Collingwood 17.20.122 defeated Melbourne 5.9.39 at MCG in Round 11, 2013

The Demons opened up brightly enough and kept up with the Pies until the first break but when the pressure was applied, the team collapsed without so much as a whimper in the game that spelled the end of coach Mark Neeld.

Aaron Davey kicked his team's first and last goal for the game. Ironically, neither of the team's other goalkickers from that day (Trengove 2, Blease 1) will be out there on Monday afternoon.

TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Jack Grimes, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Daniel Cross, Dom Tyson, Bernie Vince

HF: Rohan Bail, James Frawley, Matt Jones

F: Cam Pedersen, Chris Dawes, Jack Watts

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C: Max Gawn, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Christian Salem, Dean Terlich

EMG: Jordie McKenzie, Aidan Riley, Jimmy Toumpas

IN: Chris Dawes

OUT: Jimmy Toumpas

COLLINGWOOD

B: Tom Langdon, Jack Frost, Alan Toovey

HB: Marley Williams, Lachlan Keeffe, Tyson Goldsack

C: Dane Swan, Brent Macaffer, Heritier Lumumba

HF: Alex Fasolo, Jesse White, Jarryd Blair

F: Luke Ball, Travis Cloke, Jamie Elliott

FOLL: Jarrod Witts, Dayne Beams, Scott Pendlebury

I/C: Sam Dwyer, Paul Seedsman, Josh Thomas, Clinton Young

EMG: Taylor Adams, Tim Broomhead, Brodie Grundy,

IN: Luke Ball, Sam Dwyer, Dane Swan

OUT: Taylor Adams, Nick Maxwell (calf), Steele Sidebottom (suspension)

The status of Melbourne's traditional rivalry with Collingwood has taken a battering lately and certainly its performances over the past three years have not helped it in maintaining its hold on the Queens Birthday blockbuster.

The Demons haven't won against the Magpies since they surprised them in the 2007 encounter. They also drew in the 2010 Queens Birthday match up (although died in the wool Collingwood fanatics insist that their wayward kicking cost them 2 premiership points that day). Since that day, the best effort we've seen is a 42 point loss in 2012 sandwiched in between 88 points (2011) and 83 points (last year). And though this day is potentially the biggest revenue earner of the year for the club, the crowds have been dwindling in direct proportion to its fortunes on the field.

This makes the 2014 version a vital one for the Melbourne Football Club. There has been a substantial amount of discussion about the club's improvement this year but 3 wins out of 10 is nothing to write home about. The danger for the team now is that it will be content to rely on the recent spate of positive publicity about its mini-resurgence and rest on its laurels, rather than make a concerted effort to rise out of the bottom six.

A win against a top four contender would certainly give momentum to that resurgence and Melbourne ceryainly blew its chances against Port Adelaide last week; to concede the first 26 points and the last 25 and be in arrears by only 20 at the final siren suggests that it had its chances. To take the next step, it needs to apply itself for 100% (or close to that figure) of the time against whatever opposition it comes against.

Collingwood, with its outstanding midfield has dominated Melbourne in the engine room in their recent meetings but the Demons' rise in this division has narrowed the gap between the two teams. Mark Jamar leads the way with his return to close to his All Australian form of 2010 and the well documented inclusions that are the product of the pre season recruiting campaign should ensure that the on ball duels between the teams will be competitive. Melbourne's defence is performing well beyond expectations even with the move of James Frawley to attack and this week, the return of Chris Dawes to face his old club could give it an edge in the key forward area.

I'm tipping a cliffhanger with Collingwood's big game experience to give it the edge in a close game worthy of an expected crowd of 75-80 thousand.

[dees189227 12,368]

Melbourne team: round 12

B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Jack Grimes, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Daniel Cross, Dom Tyson, Bernie Vince

HF: Rohan Bail, James Frawley, Matt Jones

F: Cam Pedersen, Chris Dawes, Jack Watts

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C (from): Max Gawn, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Dean Terlich, Aidan Riley, Christian Salem, Jimmy Toumpas, Jordie McKenzie

IN: Chris Dawes, Jordie McKenzie, Aidan Riley

Out: –

[monoccular 17,413]

Can't argue with that.

It will be interesting to see the final cut - Dawes the obvious in, but for whom?

Monday forecast cloudy but no rain, 16 degrees. Could they retain Max as well and cut a smaller e.g. Toumpas to stretch the Pies.

[Ted Lasso 19,278]

Pies have two genuine ruckman, so I reckon Gawn stays in, i'd say Toumpas, Riley and Mckenzie don't play

[DeeSpencer 25,438]

Pies have two genuine ruckman, so I reckon Gawn stays in, i'd say Toumpas, Riley and Mckenzie don't play

They may be genuine rucks but they are young and aren't that good. It's not like they are Cox and Nic Nat. Playing Gawn would give us an advantage in the ruck but I think that having Gawn alongside 3 other big guys (Dawes, Pedersen and Frawley) would make us too big forward.

If you did play Gawn you would almost have to make either JKH or Salem then the sub and you'd have Gawn and 3 big guys, plus Watts all in the one forward line. I don't think that works.

Dawes for Gawn, Pedersen second ruck is what I'd consider the right move.

The other move is whether you think either JKH or Salem need a week as the sub OR would have more impact as the sub than Toumpas. Salem was great against Port but at the same time the pies run hard all game and I could understand if they made him sub. It then would come down as Toumpas v Riley (or McKenzie) for the last bench spot. Not sure what kept Riley out last week but his contested ball and hardness could be useful against Collingwood. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him come in just to have another hard defensive type come in and provide a bit of a rotation through the midfield at times. Another guy who can go in to the midfield would help Jones, Viney, Tyson etc see the game out better.

[DeeSpencer 25,438]

Toumpas, Riley, McKenzie named for Casey but not Gawn.

That said Gawn could be held over as the emergency. With the Casey game on Saturday I could imagine they'd have 2 players (a big and a small held over for Monday).

[jacey 333]

They may be genuine rucks but they are young and aren't that good. It's not like they are Cox and Nic Nat. Playing Gawn would give us an advantage in the ruck but I think that having Gawn alongside 3 other big guys (Dawes, Pedersen and Frawley) would make us too big forward.

Agree. Grundy and Witts aren't genuine rucks cause they are still learning the craft.

Dawes for Gawn.

As for Riley. Roos put Riley in to combat Richmond's hard midfield bodies. I'm expecting him to play QB. Bad luck Toump.

[deanox 9,896]

Frawley back on Cloke, Gawn stays forward?

Just an idea on how beat to beat them.

[monoccular 17,413]

They may be genuine rucks but they are young and aren't that good. It's not like they are Cox and Nic Nat. Playing Gawn would give us an advantage in the ruck but I think that having Gawn alongside 3 other big guys (Dawes, Pedersen and Frawley) would make us too big forward.

If you did play Gawn you would almost have to make either JKH or Salem then the sub and you'd have Gawn and 3 big guys, plus Watts all in the one forward line. I don't think that works.

Dawes for Gawn, Pedersen second ruck is what I'd consider the right move.

The other move is whether you think either JKH or Salem need a week as the sub OR would have more impact as the sub than Toumpas. Salem was great against Port but at the same time the pies run hard all game and I could understand if they made him sub. It then would come down as Toumpas v Riley (or McKenzie) for the last bench spot. Not sure what kept Riley out last week but his contested ball and hardness could be useful against Collingwood. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him come in just to have another hard defensive type come in and provide a bit of a rotation through the midfield at times. Another guy who can go in to the midfield would help Jones, Viney, Tyson etc see the game out better.

I have asked in several threads - does anyone know for a fact why Riley was dropped / omitted last weekend?

IF FIT he would probably offer a bit more in terms of contest than Jimmy T.

[Brayshaw Self 847]

Langdon, Young, Seedsman and O'Brien would exploit us if Gawn stays in the team. With Dawes coming back in, I don't think Gawn can stay.

[Grapeviney 9,705]

I have asked in several threads - does anyone know for a fact why Riley was dropped / omitted last weekend?

It was a strange one - I checked a few times on the MFC website and Twitter feed and there was no mention of it.

I only found out about it because I read it on Demonland.

(sounds like an ad..)

[Akum 2,660]

We need to take care. At first blush, we look a bit top-heavy. If we go too tall either forward or back, we risk getting run off our feet.

Gawn is surely one big man too many, unless there are doubts about Jamar & Pedo against Grundy & Witts, not at stoppages but around the ground.

And we need the right mix of toughness & skill in the midfield. The bench as it stands has Terlich, Riley & Jordie for toughness, and JKH, Salem & Toumpas for skill. There may be concerns about us being outmuscled & bullied, but we need the speed & skill too.

When we drew in 2010, we played short (Dunn & Sylvia did second ruck) but we ran them off their feet. Not saying we should do that again, but especially if the next few days including game day are going to be wet, we need to take care.

[DeeZee 7,361]

Itll be Dawes in for Toumpas, and gawn stays in to try and stretch them with our talls.

[jnrmac 20,053]

Their small players are the ones that will be the problem for us....

Elliot, Fasolo, Blair....

[chook fowler 19,444]

McKenzie May be a smoky to play as a tagger, given their mids and small forwards

[Chook 15,012]

I hadn't thought of it until now, but it was at this game exactly 10 years ago that I became officially hooked to footy. I had attended a few scattered games with my grandfather ever since moving down from Brisbane (luckily or unluckily the 2000 Grand Final was one of them); but it was a blistering comeback performance from Adem Yze and the gang on QB 2004 that truly brought me into the fold.

Ten years later and still no Premiership, but I wouldn't have traded that time for anything else--unless it might be a gold car and a couple of hot chicks. Or a few more wins after about 2006. That would have been nice too.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Chook

[What 18,810]

the more i think about it the more i think Gawn will play

The Pies are so inexperienced don back and lacking height, and with Maxwell out will struggle to cover and contain Dawes/Chip/Watts/Pedo/Gawn

If Gawn is struggling sub him off for whoever is sub (Riley or Toump most likely)

[Pennant St Dee 13,092]

We wont try and expose them for height, we will go for some versatility and try and prevent their run from the back half, therefore Gawn makes way for Dawes, I think it's between Toumpas and Riley and Mckenzie will only come in if there is a specific run with role for him

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Max Gawn, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Jordie McKenzie, Aidan Riley, Christian Salem, Dean Terlich, Jimmy Toumpas

[Adam The God 30,112]

I reckon the bench will be JKH, Salem, Terlich and Toumpas as the sub.

[rjay 24,852]

I reckon the bench will be JKH, Salem, Terlich and Toumpas as the sub.

I'm thinking Riley over Toumpas for the grunt factor, we need to apply consistent pressure over the whole game and I don't think Jimmy gives us that yet. Having said that I wouldn't be surprised either way.

[Adam The God 30,112]

I'm thinking Riley over Toumpas for the grunt factor, we need to apply consistent pressure over the whole game and I don't think Jimmy gives us that yet. Having said that I wouldn't be surprised either way.

I could see Riley playing, but I get the feeling Roos wants to keep giving Toumpas a chance to play at this level, backing him to eventually deliver that intensity and physicality. Jimmy seems to be a bit of a confidence player, so this might be Roos' way of getting the best out of him.

Edited June 5, 2014 by AdamFarr

[Ted Lasso 19,278]

I could see Riley playing, but I get the feeling Roos wants to keep giving Toumpas a chance to play at this level, backing him to eventually deliver that intensity and physicality. Jimmy seems to be a bit of a confidence player, so this might be Roos' way of getting the best out of him.

I don't think Jimmy has been that bad, for a young player he is averaging around the 17 touch mark, uses it well, shows flashes of his class, I reckon he's doing enough to get a run on more than just his talent and needing time sort of thing.

I think Riley would be a better option against Collingwood however

[Adam The God 30,112]

I don't think Jimmy has been that bad, for a young player he is averaging around the 17 touch mark, uses it well, shows flashes of his class, I reckon he's doing enough to get a run on more than just his talent and needing time sort of thing.

I think Riley would be a better option against Collingwood however

I'm really happy he's getting his hands on it too, Mike. His physicality has been left wanting on a couple of occasions though. I've also seen him lay a crunching tackle or two too. I'd prefer Toumpas, but won't be disappointed with Riley.

[SaberFang 7,151]

I think Riley's presence could really help in the midfield, if his tackling pressure can put them under duress. Could be part of Roos' game plan for knocking down their midfield.