BLACK SWAN EVENT COMING by George on the Outer

The Finance industry has a favourite allusion to unforeseen events as Black Swan events which is another way of saying we didnt see it coming or we lost your money through no fault of ours

The weekend game and result against the Sydney Swans might be forebodingly black, given their systematic destruction of Carlton last week and because the Demons come into the game with only two wins for the season, against the Swans making a serious run for another Premiership!

And those two wins were hardly convincing, being against sides immediately above and below them on the ladder at the far Southern end of the competition.

Had he not been ruled out with his injury, it's highly likely that the Swans would have rested their star attraction, Adam Goodes anyway (after all his nemesis Cale Morton is no longer playing for the Demons). Their already extensive injury list of Rhyce Shaw (abdomen), Lewis Roberts-Thomson (knee), Lewis Jetta (shin), Sam Reid (quad) and ruckman Shane Mumford (face) should have given any other side a fighting chance and yet, with all these players absent, Carlton were systematically taken apart last week - and in appalling conditions to boot! What chance then a lowly Demons side?

Well, we all live in hope of a repeat of this game:

With only one more home game at the G scheduled this year, and a win last week to raise the spirits, the Melbourne fans should turn up hoping a Black Swan event might strike the Sydney Ducks just as it did in 2010.

... but then Black Swan events are meant to be once in a lifetime

THE GAME

Melbourne v Sydney at the MCG Sunday 7 July at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 92 wins Sydney 107 wins 2 draws

At MCG Melbourne 49 wins Sydney 39 wins 2 draws

Since 2000 Melbourne 7 wins Sydney 13 wins 1 draw

The Coaches Neil Craig 0 John Longmire 0

MEDIA

TV Fox Footy Channel (Live at 1:00pm)

RADIO Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win $15.00 Sydney to win $1.01

LAST TIME THEY MET

Sydney 21.13.138 defeated Melbourne 5.7.37 at the SCG in Round 8, 2012

It was a humiliation of epic proportions. A heavy defeat remembered by Demon fans only for the fact that it was Liam Jurrah's last hurrah and for Jeremy Howe's mark of the year.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Lynden Dunn Colin Garland Dean Terlich

Half backs Tom McDonald James Frawley Mitch Clisby

Centreline Matt Jones Jack Trengove Jack Grimes

Half forwards Dean Kent Chris Dawes David Rodan

Forwards Jack Fitzpatrick Jack Watts Jeremy Howe

Followers Max Gawn Colin Sylvia Nathan Jones

Interchange Shannon Byrnes Aaron Davey Daniel Nicholson Jimmy Toumpas

Emergencies Cam Pedersen James Sellar James Strauss

In Jack Grimes

Out Sam Blease (ankle)

SYDNEY SWANS

Backs Nick Smith Ted Richards Dane Rampe

Half backs Nick Malceski Heath Grundy Jarrad McVeigh

Centreline Dan Hannebery Josh Kennedy Andrejs Everitt

Half forwards Ben McGlynn Sam Reid Jude Bolton

Forwards Mike Pyke KurtTippett Luke Parker

Followers Shane Mumford Kieren Jack, Ryan O'Keefe

Interchange Craig Bird Brandon Jack Jed Lamb Tom Mitchell

Emergencies Tony Armstrong Mitch Morton Jesse White

In Shane Mumford Sam Reid

Out Xavier Richards (quad) Jesse White

Although the Swans won last year's grand final and their round 9 clash against the Magpies at the G, you have to go back to the middle of the last decade to find a Sydney victory over Melbourne at the home of football (not forgetting that three Demon home games were "sold" to Canberra in the late 00's).

The last two games at the ground between these sides produced a couple of diametrically opposite results:-

Round 17, 2010 - Melbourne 22.10.142 defeated Sydney 10.9.69

Round 1, 2011 - Melbourne 11.18.84 drew with Sydney 11.18.84

Since the drawn game, the teams have met only once and again the result was quite the opposite of the one it preceded when the Swans recorded that 101 point victory at the SCG.

This week's result is likely to be a Swans win in the range between the 2011 and 2012 results.

That was enjoyable to watch again. With the ball we were dynamic - but the tackling was horrendous.

But I loved the stuff with Bruce and Dennis enjoying themselves - very, very funny - made my morning. "Ooooohhh, the Demons are going to be something, aren't they?" Pure gold.

BLACK SWAN EVENT COMING by George on the Outer

...

LAST TIME THEY MET

Sydney 21.13.138 defeated Melbourne 5.7.37 at the SCG in Round 8, 2012

It was a humiliation of epic proportions. A heavy defeat remembered by Demon fans only for the fact that it was Liam Jurrah's last hurrah and for Jeremy Howe's mark of the year.

...

Although the Swans won last year's grand final and their round 9 clash against the Magpies at the G, you have to go back to the middle of the last decade to find a Sydney victory over Melbourne at the home of football (not forgetting that three Demon home games were "sold" to Canberra in the late 00's).

The last two games at the ground between these sides produced a couple of diametrically opposite results:-

Round 17, 2010 - Melbourne 22.10.142 defeated Sydney 10.9.69

Round 1, 2011 - Melbourne 11.18.84 drew with Sydney 11.18.84

Since the drawn game, the teams have met only once and again the result was quite the opposite of the one it preceded when the Swans recorded that 101 point victory at the SCG.

This week's result is likely to be a Swans win in the range between the 2011 and 2012 results.

Gee...put your neck on the line with that prediction!

Gee...put your neck on the line with that prediction!

Our team of writers like to get things right once in a while.

It's been a very quiet selection week, the last couple of weeks they have announced changes prior to selection ie x will play or y will return from injury.

Re the match my biggest concern is the stoppages and clearances. I believe swabs lead the competition on hit ours and clearances, two areas we style in and the area where the dogs killed us in the fourth quarter last week.

How do we cover this? We looked near when keeper the ball in hand and cover attacking and our defenders are quality. Swans also don't usually contend with the size of the G.

I'd be planning to counter attack with lots of uncontested possession, avoid stoppages as much as possibly. Not necessarily conceding clearances but I'd be setting up defensively in the midfield and back half when there are stoppages, basically assume we will lose them and get ready to defend the ball coming in and to rebound back up the ground. To do this we're going to need to start defensively and then run very hard offensively.

What does everyone else think?

Team is:

B: Lynden Dunn, Colin Garland, Dean Terlich
HB: Tom McDonald, James Frawley, Mitch Clisby
C: Matt Jones, Jack Trengove, Jack Grimes
HF: Dean Kent, Chris Dawes, David Rodan
F: Jack Fitzpatrick, Jack Watts, Jeremy Howe
FOLL: Max Gawn, Colin Sylvia, Nathan Jones
I/C (from): Jimmy Toumpas, Shannon Byrnes, James Strauss, Cam Pedersen, Daniel Nicholson, James Sellar, Aaron Davey
IN: James Sellar, Jack Grimes, James Strauss, Cam Pedersen
OUT: Sam Blease (ankle)

From http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2013-07-04/grimes-returns-after-extended-layoff

Edit: As Nasher said, surely this is just Grimes in for Blease. The only possible other change would be Strauss for Byrnes, but I'd leave the team as is otherwise.

Edited July 4, 201312 yr by titan_uranus

In other words in Grimes, out Blease. With that bench, I can't see any permutations that strengthen the side that include Strauss, Sellar or Pedersen.

I would think Sellar a fair chance to come into the side this week given Sydney's side includes Tippett, Reid, Pike and Mumford. Sellar also gives potential ruck cover if Gawn struggles again.

Strauss and Pederson were also both good for Casey last week.

I would think Sellar a fair chance to come into the side this week given Sydney's side includes Tippett, Reid, Pike and Mumford. Sellar also gives potential ruck cover if Gawn struggles again.

Strauss and Pederson were also both good for Casey last week.

I believe Shane Mumford is out injured with a bum face.

In other words in Grimes, out Blease. With that bench, I can't see any permutations that strengthen the side that include Strauss, Sellar or Pedersen.

I'd imagine sellar/pederson are only named as backup if Sydney play all of pyke, mumford, Tippett and Reid. Just to give fitzy/gawn a chop out in the ruck.

I believe Shane Mumford is out injured with a bum face.

Back this week.

B N.Smith, T.Richards, D.Rampe

HB N.Malceski, H.Grundy, J.McVeigh

C D.Hannebery, J.Kennedy, A.Everitt

HF B.McGlynn, S.Reid, J.Bolton

F M.Pyke, K.Tippett, L.Parker

Foll S.Mumford, K.Jack, R.O’Keefe

I/C (from) T.Armstrong, C.Bird, B.Jack, J.Lamb, T.Mitchell, M.Morton, J.White

In: M.Morton, T.Armstrong, S.Mumford, S.Reid

Out: X.Richards (quad)

I would play Dunn on Kennedy and Nicholson on K. Jack. Also we should look to send N. Jones to Hannebery, as O'Keefe will be tasked to him.

My view is we are playing Sydney not The Dogs this week.

We have made one change forced by the injury to Blease.

Not suggesting that is bad after a good showing min. changes shows confidence in last weeks winning team.

However he is replaced with Grimes who has not played a game anywhere in eight weeks.

Swans have mumford back.

Swans by 8 goals if we have gained some confidence from last week.

Edited July 4, 201312 yr by old dee

Team is:

B: Lynden Dunn, Colin Garland, Dean TerlichHB: Tom McDonald, James Frawley, Mitch ClisbyC: Matt Jones, Jack Trengove, Jack GrimesHF: Dean Kent, Chris Dawes, David RodanF: Jack Fitzpatrick, Jack Watts, Jeremy HoweFOLL: Max Gawn, Colin Sylvia, Nathan JonesI/C (from): Jimmy Toumpas, Shannon Byrnes, James Strauss, Cam Pedersen, Daniel Nicholson, James Sellar, Aaron DaveyIN: James Sellar, Jack Grimes, James Strauss, Cam PedersenOUT: Sam Blease (ankle)

From http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2013-07-04/grimes-returns-after-extended-layoff

Edit: As Nasher said, surely this is just Grimes in for Blease. The only possible other change would be Strauss for Byrnes, but I'd leave the team as is otherwise.

Oh God, this is the worst Dees team I've ever se-... oh hang on, is it still May? Well, is Neeld still the co-?

Oh, never mind, carry on then.

It's been a very quiet selection week, the last couple of weeks they have announced changes prior to selection ie x will play or y will return from injury.Re the match my biggest concern is the stoppages and clearances. I believe swabs lead the competition on hit ours and clearances, two areas we style in and the area where the dogs killed us in the fourth quarter last week.How do we cover this? We looked near when keeper the ball in hand and cover attacking and our defenders are quality. Swans also don't usually contend with the size of the G.I'd be planning to counter attack with lots of uncontested possession, avoid stoppages as much as possibly. Not necessarily conceding clearances but I'd be setting up defensively in the midfield and back half when there are stoppages, basically assume we will lose them and get ready to defend the ball coming in and to rebound back up the ground. To do this we're going to need to start defensively and then run very hard offensively.What does everyone else think?

Read a great article regarding Geelong that's how they roll. Send Jones in hell for leather. Set up other mids and close in tackling and set up watts a kick behind play to intercept mark and attack from half back.

Simple.

Might put my hand up for this coaching gig

My view is we are playing Sydney not The Dogs this week.

I would have thought that they'd have Sellar in for Tippett, he has the height and strength.

Oh God, this is the worst Dees team I've ever se-... oh hang on, is it still May? Well, is Neeld still the co-?

Oh, never mind, carry on then.

heh. It is nice to have a second week in a row where we've had a genuine upgrade (last week it was Frawley for Pedersen). Seeing Byrnes, Rodan, Pedersen, Sellar and Blease permanently stuck in a revolving door tour between Melbourne and Casey was getting a tad tedious.

Grimes!

I would play Dunn on Kennedy and Nicholson on K. Jack. Also we should look to send N. Jones to Hannebery, as O'Keefe will be tasked to him.

Dunn won't play on Kennedy, he'll play as he has done all year at half-back. Why would we change that now, especially after a win?

Dunn may play on Mitch Morton, if he plays, or maybe Jude Bolton if he rests forward. Kennedy will be in the middle and we will lose every game we ever play if Dunn plays in the middle.

Sending Jones to anyone, let alone Hannebery, doesn't help us. We need to let Jones do his own thing and win his own ball. Nicholson can run with one of their mids (Kennedy), and maybe we can use Clisby or Matt Jones or the others.

Please don't play extra talls for the sale of it. Back Frawley, McDonald and Garland in to take on the resting ruck, Tippett and Reid.

And for that point don't play extra talls up forward. Back Gawn and Fitzy to be better for the runs and fit enough to do it.

So that means Sellar and Pedo as emergencies and then I'd toss up whether to go with Strauss or Byrnes as the sub. I lean towards the young player who can show us something

Byrnes won't play, because someone at the club has finally realised he can't. I hope.

Hate to say it, but I think we need Sellar on the bench for back-up in case either Gawn & Fitz tire again, or one of their 3 big forwards gets a hold of McDonald or Garland. Also, we don't want a bench of 4 smalls.

So one of Toumpas, Strauss, Nicho or Davey will miss out. And I'd love to see what Strauss could do in an attacking position, but considering that the other 3 played pretty well last week, he might be the one to miss, with Davey as sub.

On the other hand, our tall forwards could give them lots of problems too. But it just all depends on how often and how quickly and how well it gets down there.

Dunn won't play on Kennedy, he'll play as he has done all year at half-back. Why would we change that now, especially after a win?

Dunn may play on Mitch Morton, if he plays, or maybe Jude Bolton if he rests forward. Kennedy will be in the middle and we will lose every game we ever play if Dunn plays in the middle.

Dunns actually played at full back the last couple of weeks...

Dunn won't play on Kennedy, he'll play as he has done all year at half-back. Why would we change that now, especially after a win?

Dunn may play on Mitch Morton, if he plays, or maybe Jude Bolton if he rests forward. Kennedy will be in the middle and we will lose every game we ever play if Dunn plays in the middle.

Sending Jones to anyone, let alone Hannebery, doesn't help us. We need to let Jones do his own thing and win his own ball. Nicholson can run with one of their mids (Kennedy), and maybe we can use Clisby or Matt Jones or the others.

I think Sellar has to play given Gawn can't ruck a whole game and the size of Sydney's forward line.

Our backline will be too slow if Sellar starts on Tippett/Pike and it also includes Dunn, Garland, Frawley and McDonald. Further, I see Kennedy as a difficult match in the midfield up given his size. Dunn played on Judd earlier this year and did well, so I think it is the best solution to both problems.

I also think that Jones going head to head with Hannebery is better than being shut out of the game by O'Keefe, which is a real possibility.