2012: THE TEAM TO BEAT

[Whispering_Jack 29,807]

I've always enjoyed reading the work of Colin Wisbey from the Magpie supporter site Bullet 'N Board. For years he used to produce some fantastic and detailed reports on draftees but I believe that these days he works for an AFL club and doesn't do them any more (at least not for general public consumption). However, I noticed this interesting post from Wisbey on who he believes is the team to beat in 2012. 

1. Cats almost certain to be the team to beat.

2. Hawks likely to improve significantly

3. Collingwood. New coach and coaching panel, loss of significant genuine ready-to-perform players / depth in last couple of years, query on Joll's aging and knees, unhealthy dependence on Trav not getting cruelled by injury.

My gut feel is that, fairly similar to this year, the top spots will be:

1-2: Cats, Pies with Cats probably #1. Chance that Pies might even slide a little.

3: Hawks

4: WCE (they are very dependent on non major injuries to certain players though)

5: Carlton (virtually by default)

Most significant improver: GC

* Likely improvers: 

Melb

NM

Rich

* Approx status quo:

Ess

Crows

Freo (they are very dependent on non major injuries to certain players though)

Bris

Syd

* Likely sliders:

WBD (to 12th-16th)

Saints (to 9th-12th)

* Wooden spoon: GWS's entry to rob Port of the spoon they otherwise merit.

I think he's close to the mark although I believe he might be wrong with the WA clubs. I think everything went right for the Eagles and wrong for the Dockers in 2011 and that they might virtually switch places next year.

However, I do like the team he has on top of his likely improvers list.  

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Indeed WJ...coming from an ex Collingwood fan post writer that is indeed a compliment....love his reference to Carlscum...think the Hawks will turn the table on the pies...and down the slide they might indeed go.

[dee-luded 2,959]

I've always enjoyed reading the work of Colin Wisbey from the Magpie supporter site Bullet 'N Board. For years he used to produce some fantastic and detailed reports on draftees but I believe that these days he works for an AFL club and doesn't do them any more (at least not for general public consumption). However, I noticed this interesting post from Wisbey on who he believes is the team to beat in 2012.

I think he's close to the mark although I believe he might be wrong with the WA clubs. I think everything went right for the Eagles and wrong for the Dockers in 2011 and that they might virtually switch places next year.

However, I do like the team he has on top of his likely improvers list.

I suspect Jack, that all may slip a little. Cats to slip with another flag from an aging team. Youth to be added sacrificing experience and size.

Pies to slide a little with an exodus of coaches and leadership, & adjusting to the changes of the New.

# So Pies and Cats, 1 & 2ish...

*Hawks to improve a little, some more size but some more aging legs as well..

*Eagles to be strong and improve.

*Blues to improve marginally.

*Dogs to add bite through youth, but need maturing.

# Thats all I can see in my estimations.

[Guest Jackie]

The team to beat? -Those demons that have have given us grief for 4 and more decades would be a good start.

[Pink Freud 364]

I recently watched a replay of the Preliminary Final where Collingwood pinched the game from Hawthorn with a goal late in the game. I won't say they were unlucky but I do think there was enough hurt there on the losing team to suggest that they will steel themselves to avenge that loss and make up for it with nothing less than a flag.

Hawthorn will be the team to beat in 2012.

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

I think the Pies will suffer from the loss of Malthouse/Neeld significantly. Cats will miss a couple of players but have enough talent to remain the team to beat. Hawthorn will be improvers, if only because of the Pies descent.

#1-2 Cats and Hawks. Could go either way.

#3-5 Carlton, Collingwood, WCE (although I wouldn't be overly surprised if the Eagles slid)

#6-11 Melbourne, Sydney, Essendon, Freo, North, Richmond (dogfight for the last 3 spots in the 8)

#12-16 GC, Adelaide, St Kilda, Bulldogs, Brisbane

Between 16 and 17 (Port), there is a huge gap.

Then 50 ft of cow pat

And finally, with NO wins is #18 GW$

[Dr. Gonzo 24,193]

Not really going out on a limb there, he's practically picked each team to finish in the same position as 2011. I would have thought Freo is the team with the most scope for improvement, they should be a top 6, if not top 4, team but were absolutely decimated by injuries this year. It will be interesting to see though how Ross Lyon's defensive coaching style will work on the larger Subiaco oval.

[old55 23,405]

The flag wil be won by one of Hawthorn, Collingwood and Geelong - no-one else can win it. I think Hawthorn will win but it takes luck. Geelong have 7 30+ players at the start of 2012 and Ling, Ottens, Mooney and Milburn have quit - they will get on the slide, if not this year then definitely next year. The Pies are good but as Wisbey says they rely on Jolly and he's shaky.

Freo will be the big improvers and the most interesting story for me - I hope they do well - they could finish top 4. West Coast rely on Cox, Glass and Embley who are all 30+, they'll be decent but can't win this year's flag. Carlton are improving and could genuinely challenge from 2013. I think the Saints will make the 8, their best players are younger than Geelong's so they'll slide later but they'll fall much heavier.

Then there's a bunch of teams - Sydney, the Dogs, North, Essendon, Richmond, Adelaide and Melbourne - all with some claim to 8th spot - but one of them will also finish 14th - it's a raffle.

Gold Coast, Brisbane, Port and GWS round out the bottom 4 but Gold Coast will rise rapidly in 2013.

[H_T 3,043]

I think he's close to the mark although I believe he might be wrong with the WA clubs. I think everything went right for the Eagles and wrong for the Dockers in 2011 and that they might virtually switch places next year.

However, I do like the team he has on top of his likely improvers list.

I tend to agree to an extent with you on the WA clubs, but I think WCE will still be very competitive. I think they will both be close to each other on the ladder. I think Sydney will be one to watch and agree with his assessment with Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood.

Many are waiting for Geelong to hop on the slide. I think their club is brilliant and their character and will to succeed passed on from player to player will minimise any dip in performance in the years ahead. Their dominance may erode, but all I see on the horizon a very competitive and true to form Geelong in the years ahead. I can see them developing their players well (thanks to Wells & Co's foresight), the likes of Smedts will be introduced and become household names and the backbone of their new look defence. Fwiw, I don't think they'll be bottoming out like sides of the past.

[Sir Why You Little 36,985]

Geelong will not slide to far. Their dominance is far from over. They get 8 "free" games a year at the cattery. Cook and Wells are not done yet.

[old55 23,405]

I don't think Geelong will "bottom out" but this is absolutely the last year they'll be premiership contenders for a reasonable period. In 2013 they'll be mid table and it will take them at least 5 years to get back to premiership contention.

[Demonator 93]

I recently watched a replay of the Preliminary Final where Collingwood pinched the game from Hawthorn with a goal late in the game. I won't say they were unlucky but I do think there was enough hurt there on the losing team to suggest that they will steel themselves to avenge that loss and make up for it with nothing less than a flag.

Hawthorn will be the team to beat in 2012.

Absolutely agree. Hawks for me!

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

I don't think Geelong will "bottom out" but this is absolutely the last year they'll be premiership contenders for a reasonable period. In 2013 they'll be mid table and it will take them at least 5 years to get back to premiership contention.

Agree with that assessment.

Subject to injuries and suspensions and a bit of luck thrown in.......I think Hawks will be flag winners.

[Tony Tea 2,806]

Ling and Ottens are huge losses for the Cats.

[Tony Tea 2,806]

West Coast's 2011 was based on the form of their "rookie" veterans, especially Glass (never, ever underestimate the importance of a linchpin key defender), who had top seasons.

[rolly 149]

hawks, cats and pies will all be hard to beat but they're all short genuine ruck stocks so my vote goes to carlton...a fit kreuzer should see them top 4

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,693]

Interesting discussion. But I'm surprised that comments about reliance on key players hasn't also mentioned Carlton and Chris Judd. Apart from Ablett and Gold Coast, I think Carlton's reliance on Judd is the most significant in the AFL.

[Deetective Sgt. Taggert 389]

Interesting discussion. But I'm surprised that comments about reliance on key players hasn't also mentioned Carlton and Chris Judd. Apart from Ablett and Gold Coast, I think Carlton's reliance on Judd is the most significant in the AFL.

Very true. I would have thought Carlton would be up there this year if Judd can maintain his form and ability to pull the whole team along. They lost a few close ones they could have won (e.g. against Geelong). One flag for such a dominant player doesn't seem like a great return so far...

As for Geelong, they won a bunch of games earlier in 2011 by a whisker so this year they might drop a few of those so who knows...Can't see them sliding far though for a while

[Damo 3,344]

Betting wise Freo are very good value for the flag @ $34. A safer bet of $4.25 to make the top 4 is good betting as I think they should be evens.

You can even get $2 to make the eight. A long time to wait for that ship to come home but safe IMO.

I would like to get money on them to make the Granny but cant see it listed. They would not be favorites! Cant see them winning it unless they play the pies...

[Sir Why You Little 36,985]

The Padddle Pop Lion will be a big loss for the cats, i agree. But we all thought the defection of G Ablett up north would finish them. Their recriuting has been phenominal for the last 12-13 years. I don't think it's finished yet. Hawkins now knows he can do it. I hope the MFC have some epic wins against these buggers.

[Bossdog 2,002]

Look out for the Tigers this year Just got a feeling that they will improve a lot more than people think

[Sir Why You Little 36,985]

Look out for the Tigers this year Just got a feeling that they will improve a lot more than people think

You could be right, they look like all class in the middle. But the defence may kill them. I sure hope so, i hate the tiger roar. My Grandad grew up in "struggle town" his brother played for them in the 30's won premierships. So he never stopped reminding me how good the tigers were in the 70's. Thugs.

[Pennant St Dee 13,118]

2011 Top 4 -

Hawks for me that PF defeat will burn inside as will the Pies GF performance so I expect them to also bounce back, Cats I think will miss Ottens & Ling but still have a lot of class. Darren Glass really hobbled into the last few weeks as did Kerr and don't expect Lynch, Embley & Nicoski to have years like last year again they will be the Top 4 slider but home ground advantage and a fit Cox will see them probably stay in the 8

2011 5-8

Blues - Top 4 if Juddy can stay fit and his shoulder is right, Sydney who knows good at the SCG and just keep proving everybody wrong, Bombers will be up there if Hurley can get through unscathed but wont get early wins like last year when they were much fitter than everyone else while I expect Saints to be either falling in or knocking on the door of the 8 not sure about Scott Watters he did well with Subiaco in WAFL but was handed a Premiership team on a plate by Peter German.

2011 9-17

North will be same as ever floating around the 8 and depending on the likes of Zieball, Cunnington and Bastinac coming on could be anywhere from 7th to 14th, we will be fitter and harder to beat so that and the natural progression of our younger players should see us pushing for the 8 along with Richmond. Freo were cruelled by injuries last season but Lyon still has a lot of work today yes he is a good coach and IMO the best game day coach going around but bottom half of the 8 at best. Adelaide should improve I do like some of their kids although I think the 8 is beyond them.

I expect the same from the Doggies as this year with their stars being good at times but not every week and Ports improving with some youthful enthusiasm and Brissy for me were not belted last year and we all know how damaging anyside can be if Browny is fit and firing, if they stay fit and their impressive kids continue to develop I expect them to hit a purple patch at some stage but lack consistency.

Suns kids all face the 2nd year pressure and GWS will be awful, every year pundits say they cant see much change in the Top 8 but we are always surprised b teams improving so going out on a limb early I will have my 8 as

1. Hawks

2. Pies

3. Blues

4. Cats

5.Bombers

6.Eagles

7.Freo

8.Demons ambitious I know but having faith and we will be contesting with Roos, Tiges & Swans

[Samsara 65]

I don't think the ladder will change to much from this year to be honest, at least in terms of groups of teams (i.e., those who will probably top 4, those who will be 5-8 and so on).

I am just interested and excited to see how the Dee's go under Neeld (and all the other new staff).

[jnrmac 20,055]

West Coast's 2011 was based on the form of their "rookie" veterans, especially Glass (never, ever underestimate the importance of a linchpin key defender), who had top seasons.

I agree. WCE got great value from their vets. Shouldn't happen two years in a row. The others will have worked out their press by now as well.