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2011


45HG

Who will we beat, how many wins will we have and who will we finish above?  

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I don't like all this gushing optimism about the draw. Setting us up for a big dose of over confidence and already bookmarking "easy games" and "throwing in the towel" on others. I'd prefer to see every game as a unique challenge with its own variables. We don't yet know which opposition will have the form next season. I am a big believer in the "Take it one game at a time" philosophy.

To be honest with you, I really think people have 'pulled back' their optimism in this poll.

Most say more than what they voted.

Predictions beget expectations, and I understand that. But I will tell you one thing - Bailey will sit down with Connolly at some stage and parse this draw and assess their own internal expectations against it.

The bolded part - As is Bailey, except he would say to "take it one quarter at a time."

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I don't like all this gushing optimism about the draw. Setting us up for a big dose of over confidence and already bookmarking "easy games" and "throwing in the towel" on others. I'd prefer to see every game as a unique challenge with its own variables. We don't yet know which opposition will have the form next season. I am a big believer in the "Take it one game at a time" philosophy.

I see where you're coming from, but this is a supporter's forum and poll. Obviously, there's a distinction between supporter expectations/hopes and players' mindsets.

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I see where you're coming from, but this is a supporter's forum and poll. Obviously, there's a distinction between supporter expectations/hopes and players' mindsets.

IMO there's not much difference between the clubs and supporters expectations. They generally mirror each other.

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Back on.

A little analysis for naysayers (procrastinators); last years effort from Demonlanders produced this:

Finishing 12th: Correct. But we managed to only name 1 of the teams that we finished above correctly.

77% of posters had us winning 7-10 games, with the games that more than 50% of us believed we'd win leaving us with 9. This I will call correct.

Again, however, we struggled with the teams! Of the 8 wins we had, we only correctly picked Richmond (twice), Sydney, Port Adelaide and Essendon.

Less than 25% of us had us beating Brissie, 1% of us had us beating them a second time.

13% of us had us beating Adelaide.

On the flip side, 77% of us had us beating North and 70% had us beating West Coast.

So, somehow, we were able to pretty accurately predict number of wins and ladder position.

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Assorted analysis.

Well done, 45. I guess that just highlights how absolutely wild each year's improvers and sliders are. It might be relatively easy to pick where one team might finish if you know that team well, but it's damn near impossible to catch 'em all, so to speak.

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Looking at the fixture I came to a guesstimate of 13 wins. That was from marking x games as 'wins' and giving us 50% of the games I marked as 'maybes'.

However, at this stage in our development we're more likely to drop games than the reverse, so I'd vote 11-12.

That still relies on a few of our better players playing most of the season though - I shudder to think of a season without Jamar, for example.

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