2004 Saints vs 2010 Demons

[bandicoot 1,395]

In 2004 the Saints finished the year in 4th place and started their Premiership run.

Their relatively inexperienced team managed to win 16 games that year.

The 2004 team is listed below with number of games prior to that season.

- 6 players with over 100 games

- 6 players between 50 - 99 games

- 10 players between 1 - 49 games

Austinn Jones - 150

Nick Dal Santo - 26

Luke Ball - 16

Robert Harvey - 200+

Lenny Hayes - 93

Steven Baker - 70

Justin Peckett -150

Stephen Milne - 52

Heath Black - 100

Nick Riewoldt - 50

Brendon Goddard - 18

Brett Voss - 85

Aaron Hamill - 150

Stephen Powell - 90

Leigh Montagna - 13

Matthew Ferguson

Sam Fisher

Jason Blake

Trent Knobel

Jason Gram - 2

Andrew Thompson - 150

Kozi - 41

2010 Demons as follows:

- 5 players over 100 games

- 10 players between 50 - 99 games

- 13 players between 1 - 49 games

McDonald, James 235

Bruce, Cameron 203

Green, Brad 198

Miller, Brad 127

Davey, Aaron 119

Moloney, Brent 90

Rivers, Jared 90

Sylvia, Colin 87

Jamar, Mark 73

Jones, Nathan 70

Bate, Matthew 68

Bell, Daniel 66

Johnson, Paul 61

Bartram, Clint 59

Dunn, Lynden 52

Frawley, James 40

Morton, Cale 40

Warnock, Matthew 38

Petterd, Ricky 29

Martin, Stefan 27

Garland, Colin 20

Wonaeamirri, Austin 18

Bennell, Jamie 16

Jetta, Neville 15

Cheney, Kyle 12

Grimes, Jack 12

Maric, Addam 11

Jurrah, Liam 9

I don't believe that the 2004 Saints team was much better than 2010 Demons. Our expectations from the 2010 Demons side should be a lot higher than where they are at the moment...

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

I think the quality of the opposition in 2010 is higher though (ie, the bar has been raised).

[Trisul 640]

Somewhat agree, although you've listed 22 Saints and 28 Dee's ....

[H_T 2,941]

Yes, you're missing a few Saints. Wasn't Fraser Gehrig on the list then ?

If you take St.Kilda's top half-a-dozen players back then and our current top half-a-dozen, they would have a stronger "cream" back then. Ie. Harvey, Riewoldt, Hayes, Hamill, Gehrig, Thompson,.. . They would also have a stronger midfield and much more quality up forward. Hence more scoring power, which our 2010 list would lack in spades, lets be honest going on from 2009's figures alone.

Chalk & cheese in my opinion.

[Little Goffy 12,656]

Yeeeeah. What the people above said about missing Gehrig from your list, and comparing chalk with cheese.

Give Watts 50 games (as Riewoldt), Trengove and Scully 18 (as Ball and Goddard)... it's a difference.

If we added Harvey, Gehrig, A. Jones and Hamill (all circa 2004) to our list next year, replacing McDonald, Bruce, Miller and Bell, yeah, I reckon we'd have a shot at top 4.

What you have to consider is that many of our players over 50 games are considered depth or even fringe - The

'stars' in our team are mostly under 50 games or under 10 games at the moment.

Jurrah, Watts, Scully, Trengove, Morton, Grimes, Frawley, Petterd, Wonaeamirri, Garland, and of course all the other draftees from 2008-09 who are yet to play a game.

[Keyser Söze 0]

For a start, our list lacks a two-time Brownlow Medallist in his prime.

[praha 10,293]

The fact that you've judged a successful team against a team that has lost two pre-season games in pretty bad fashion kind of debunks your entire post as nothing more than a biased opinion from a fan who overrates their own team.

If Melbourne win the first 10 games of the year, then I might agree with you. In the mean time, while they continue to over handball, run directly into traffic and struggle to kick goals, I will disagree with you and laugh at the fact that you've compared a team that had one of the best starts in a season ever to a team that has finished last two seasons in a row.

I have faith, but really? Really?

[Daz's Dee's 113]

Sorry the teams are worlds apart.... Forget how many games players have played it is irrelavant IMO the players they had drafted played a part and have mostly reached there potential(a few misses along the way)and as a following poster said there "experienced" players were alot more affective than ours. If our younger players reach there full potential than of course we will be up there. But really are we comparing apples with apples the game has changed since 04 and the comp is alot more even, teams and there 22 players have to play at there best week in week or they fall behind very quickly.... if and a very big if our players play to the best of there ability 90% of the time we could be anything, I have been to the Intra club match, watched the NAB match on TV and went to the game against the bombers on the weekend and i can't see us setting the world on fire in the near future IMO we have some pretty big holes and injuries (which is showing our lack of qlty depth). Anything can happin!

[jacey 333]

Sorry the teams are worlds apart....

He missed out on

Gehrig 190 games.

Max Hughton 140 games.

Luke Penny 60 games.

Brent Guerra 65 games.

Xavier and Maguire played around 30 games each.

[P-man 13,224]

jacey that avatar is all class.

As far as the comparison goes, if we follow the same path as the circa 2000 St Kilda team I'll be happy, although hopefully we don't have to wait 10 years for them to go from being cellar dwellers to flag contenders.

[RalphiusMaximus 5,993]

In 2004 the Saints finished the year in 4th place and started their Premiership run.

Their relatively inexperienced team managed to win 16 games that year.

...

I don't believe that the 2004 Saints team was much better than 2010 Demons. Our expectations from the 2010 Demons side should be a lot higher than where they are at the moment...

Your entire contention lacks validity. You've taken two entirely different sample sizes to start with. Are you working on the assumption that the lists you've provided represent the first team for each side? To make the comparison even remotely valid you need to show the entire list complete with total games played at all clubs for each player.

For instance here is a list for Melbourne as of the beginning of this year:

1 Matthew Warnock 38

2 Nathan Jones 70

3 Clint Bartram 59

4 Jack Watts 3

5 Jordan Gysberts -

6 Matthew Bate 68

7 Brad Miller 127

8 James Frawley 40

9 Jack Trengove -

10 Cale Morton 40

11 Paul Johnson 62

12 Colin Sylvia 87

14 Lynden Dunn 52

15 Ricky Petterd 29

16 Jack Grimes 12

18 Brad Green 198

19 Addam Maric 11

20 Colin Garland 20

21 Daniel Bell 66

22 Brent Moloney 90

23 James McDonald 235

24 Liam Jurrah 9

25 Kyle Cheney 12

27 Jared Rivers 90

28 Joel Macdonald 80

30 Tom McNamara 3

31 Tom Scully -

32 Cameron Bruce 203

33 Austin Wonaeamirri 18

34 Stefan Martin 27

35 Luke Tapscott -

36 Aaron Davey 119

37 Max Gawn -

39 Neville Jetta 15

40 Mark Jamar 73

44 Rohan Bail 1

43 Jamie Bennell 16

46 Sam Blease -

47 James Strauss -

48 Jack Fitzpatrick -

Rookies:

13 Jordie McKenzie 3

26 John Meesen 6

29 Michael Newton 21

38 Danny Hughes -

42 Jake Spencer 6

50 Rhys Healey -

A quick look hasn't turned up the complete St Kilda list for 2004 with games played, so that can be somebody else's project.

[casey scorp 2]

A quick look hasn't turned up the complete St Kilda list for 2004 with games played, so that can be somebody else's project.

Steven Baker - 69

Luke Ball - 16

Heath Black - 103

Jason Blake - 40

Barry Brooks - 5

Craig Callaghan - 124

Raph Clarke - 0

X Clarke - 38

Nick Dal Santo - 26

Matthew Ferguson - 1

Leigh Fisher - 5

Sam Fisher - 0

Fraser Gehrig - 168

Rendon Goddard - 18

Jason Gram - 2

Brent Guerra - 65

Aaron Hamill - 151

Harves - 277

Lenny Hayes - 93

Josh Houlihan - 0

Max Hudghton - 137

Aussie Jones - 179

Trent Knobel - 30

Kosi - 41

Matt Maguire - 29

Stephen Milne - 52

Leigh Montagna - 13

Brett Moyle - 47

Allan Murray - 8

Justin Peckett - 204

Luke Penny - 51

Stephen Powell - 96

Nick Riewoldt - 50

Troy Schwarze - 36

Andrew Thompson - 148

Brett Voss - 91

Rookies

Dylan Pfitzner - 0

Nick Stone - 17

Daniel Wulf - 30

[45HG 1,539]

I got 2009 games from Melbourne players based on that list with 5 players with over 100 games experience.

I got 2460 games from St Kilda players based on that list with 8 players with over 100 games experience.

A number of their quality future stars had at least 16-50 games, an extra year or two on many of ours.

Considering a list can mature by 484 games per year without playing finals (less deletions), this is a comparison that may be applicable next year.

Edited March 2, 2010 by 45HG16

[RalphiusMaximus 5,993]

Steven Baker - 69

Luke Ball - 16

Heath Black - 103

Jason Blake - 40

Barry Brooks - 5

Craig Callaghan - 124

Raph Clarke - 0

X Clarke - 38

Nick Dal Santo - 26

Matthew Ferguson - 1

Leigh Fisher - 5

Sam Fisher - 0

Fraser Gehrig - 168

Rendon Goddard - 18

Jason Gram - 2

Brent Guerra - 65

Aaron Hamill - 151

Harves - 277

Lenny Hayes - 93

Josh Houlihan - 0

Max Hudghton - 137

Aussie Jones - 179

Trent Knobel - 30

Kosi - 41

Matt Maguire - 29

Stephen Milne - 52

Leigh Montagna - 13

Brett Moyle - 47

Allan Murray - 8

Justin Peckett - 204

Luke Penny - 51

Stephen Powell - 96

Nick Riewoldt - 50

Troy Schwarze - 36

Andrew Thompson - 148

Brett Voss - 91

Rookies

Dylan Pfitzner - 0

Nick Stone - 17

Daniel Wulf - 30

Nice work. Where did you find that?

So, looking at the original basis for comparison in terms of games played, we have the following:

100+ games

StK = 9

Melb = 5

51-100

StK = 7

Melb = 11

1-50

StK = 19

Melb = 20

0

StK = 4

Melb = 10

From this we see that we actually stack up ok in the 51-100 section, this presumably being players who have served their apprenticeship and can be legitimately called AFL footballers. However, we suffer a serious lack in the 100+ area which is normally where you would be looking for leadership within the group. Looking further down, we are about even in the 1-50 area, what we might call "apprentices" for the purposes of this exercise. However, the greatest discrepancy is in those who have yet to play a game. 10 players is a huge portion of our list.

So, anyone want to have a stab at exactly what these numbers amount to in terms of where our list stands, in comparison to the Saints of 2004 or in general?

[Felix 92]

For a start, our list lacks a two-time Brownlow Medallist in his prime.

bingo.... and a forward line... back line is starting to take shape. Midfield will need another season together imo

[casey scorp 2]

Nice work. Where did you find that?

I've got the AFL Season Guide since it was first published in 1996.