Perspective on 1 & 2

[Little Goffy 14,645]

Just for persective, here's a sample of what turns up at picks one and two, going a fair way back.

Interesting to that only Headland, Ottens, Hodge and Roughead have played in premierships from this list, and that three teams make up 50% of the last decade's top 1 and 2 selections. (Saints, Tigers, Blues)

2007

1- Matthew Kruzer 2 - Trent Cotchin

2006

1- Bryce Gibbs 2- Scott Gumbleton

2005

1- Marc Murphy 2- Dale Thomas

2004

1- Brett Deledio 2- Jarryd Roughead

2003

1- Adam Cooney 2- Andrew Walker

2002

1- Brendon Goddard 2- Daniel Wells

2001

1- Luke Hodge 2- Luke Ball

2000

1- Nick Riewoldt 2- Justin Koschitzke

1999

1- Josh Fraser 2- Paul Haselby

1998

1- Des Headland 2 - Justin Longmuir

1997

1- Travis Johnstone 2- Brad Ottens

Since we already have 'our Riewoldt' -

My question is, how big a deal do you think such a pair might be, and what would be, for example, you 'BEST CASE' and 'WORST CASE' scenario's out of these 1+2 selections.

Best Case - For mine, I'd go with Hodge/Ball or Deledio/Roughead if choosing a set.

Worst Case - Oh dear god the 1998 draft sucked all the way. If the 'Gold Coast' draft is like that, they'll never recover!

Mix and match, let's see what you think will help us the most.

[Freak 100]

nice thread. it gets me more excited about picks 1 + 2 (if we get it!).lol

The best would be Riewoldt, Brad Ottens.

Riewoldt up forward, Ottens to ruck us. i like taking the best available and I've always thought Ottens is a great player.

[Hannabal 4]

In light of Lethal's comments about Watts having done "nothing to show him that he should have been a no. 1 selection", how many of those no. 1's have been standouts and how many took a number of years to show their worth ?

Let's look at the disappointing no. 1's - Johnstone, Headland, Fraser

Let's look at the no. 1's yet to show that they are superstars of the game - Murphy, Deledio

Let's look at the no. 1's that took many years to show their value - Hodge, Goddard (they took time to find their feet - at least their 4th year)

Let's discount Gibbs and Kreuzer as it's too soon.

So, in reality only Riewoldt and Cooney showed early in their career that they were destined for great things. When Matthews makes his assertions about Watts and the no. 1 pick, who is he using as a reference and measured against what expectations/time lines ? Because the same could have been said about nearly every no. 1 pick, especially after 2 games (when he said it).

An alalysis of the no. 2's, who shouldn't be far off the pace when considering no. 1's is just as significant.

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Also, what it does show is that no's 1 and 2 will take time to deliver significant impact. But if we get the picks right, they will be the cornerstones for a decade.

[Adam The God 30,420]

In light of Lethal's comments about Watts having done "nothing to show him that he should have been a no. 1 selection", how many of those no. 1's have been standouts and how many took a number of years to show their worth ?

Let's look at the disappointing no. 1's - Johnstone, Headland, Fraser

Let's look at the no. 1's yet to show that they are superstars of the game - Murphy, Deledio

Let's look at the no. 1's that took many years to show their value - Hodge, Goddard (they took time to find their feet - at least their 4th year)

Let's discount Gibbs and Kreuzer as it's too soon.

So, in reality only Riewoldt and Cooney showed early in their career that they were destined for great things. When Matthews makes his assertions about Watts and the no. 1 pick, who is he using as a reference and measured against what expectations/time lines ? Because the same could have been said about nearly every no. 1 pick, especially after 2 games (when he said it).

An alalysis of the no. 2's, who shouldn't be far off the pace when considering no. 1's is just as significant.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also, what it does show is that no's 1 and 2 will take time to deliver significant impact. But if we get the picks right, they will be the cornerstones for a decade.

Very true, Hannabal. It's a pity a few more media people don't understand this.

[jacey 333]

So, in reality only Riewoldt and Cooney showed early in their career that they were destined for great things.

Also, what it does show is that no's 1 and 2 will take time to deliver significant impact. But if we get the picks right, they will be the cornerstones for a decade.

I remember Cooney being absolutely hammered for his poor first season. Heat was really on when Andrew Walker had a blow out first game.

He was considered to have an afl ready body, a midfielder and his possessions for the first 16 games include 8, 9, 14, 10, 10, 11, 6, 6, 4, 8, 10, 12, 8, 4, 13, 16. An average over 9 disposals per game.

I'm not too worried about Watts first 20 games. It's the next 250 that i'm interested in.

[Hannabal 4]

I remember Cooney being absolutely hammered for his poor first season.

I remember that too, but unlike the media I'm cutting draftees plenty of slack in their first year. Hence I didn't include Gibbs.

And fwiw, Gibbs in his third year also isn't showing that he's going to be a superstar. The media love him but he's still very much being judged on potential not output. He mops up and is a link man, but virutally never wins hard contested ball. He presently shows no more than Cale Morton.

[Einstein 1]

This thread got me thinking about the history of picks 1 and 3 since 1997, should it eventuate that we end up with picks 1 and 3. Dont think it will happen at this stage, I'd say picks 1 and 2 are almost certainly ours.

So anyway, I had a look at it, and here's the list.

1997 - 1. Travis Johnstone, 3. Trent Croad.

1998 - 1. Des Headland, 3. Nic Fosdike.

1999 - 1. Josh Fraser, 3. Aaron Fiora.

2000 - 1. Nick Riewoldt, 3. Alan Didak.

2001 - 1. Luke Hodge, 3. Chris Judd.

2002 - 1. Brendan Goddard, 3. Jared Brennan.

2003 - 1. Adam Cooney, 3. Colin Sylvia.

2004 - 1. Brett Deledio, 3. Ryan Griffen.

2005 - 1. Marc Murphy, 3. Xavier Ellis.

2006 - 1. Bryce Gibbs, 3. Lachlan Hansen.

2007 - 1. Matthew Kreuzer, 3. Chris Masten.

2008 - 1. Jack Watts, 3. Stephen Hill.

[Age 485]

This thread got me thinking about the history of picks 1 and 3 since 1997, should it eventuate that we end up with picks 1 and 3. Dont think it will happen at this stage, I'd say picks 1 and 2 are almost certainly ours.

So anyway, I had a look at it, and here's the list.

1997 - 1. Travis Johnstone, 3. Trent Croad.

1998 - 1. Des Headland, 3. Nic Fosdike.

1999 - 1. Josh Fraser, 3. Aaron Fiora.

2000 - 1. Nick Riewoldt, 3. Alan Didak.

2001 - 1. Luke Hodge, 3. Chris Judd.

2002 - 1. Brendan Goddard, 3. Jared Brennan.

2003 - 1. Adam Cooney, 3. Colin Sylvia.

2004 - 1. Brett Deledio, 3. Ryan Griffen.

2005 - 1. Marc Murphy, 3. Xavier Ellis.

2006 - 1. Bryce Gibbs, 3. Lachlan Hansen.

2007 - 1. Matthew Kreuzer, 3. Chris Masten.

2008 - 1. Jack Watts, 3. Stephen Hill.

Going on those stats I would almost say that having pics 1&3 is better than 1&2. Especially 2001! The draft though is still really a lucky dip, granted there is better research done and its less of a lottery but there is still the chance that you pick up a player at number 1 and he becomes injury prone or doesnt develop anymore from when they dominated the junior ranks.

Maybe we need a clause for the priority pick that says even though we choose player x, we still have the rights to swap him for player y 5 years down the track! Wouldnt get off the ground, but be nice if we had that option.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,088]

So, in reality only Riewoldt and Cooney showed early in their career that they were destined for great things. When Matthews makes his assertions about Watts and the no. 1 pick, who is he using as a reference and measured against what expectations/time lines ? Because the same could have been said about nearly every no. 1 pick, especially after 2 games (when he said it).

I disagree. Neither of the two mentioned had a good time in their early matches. For the first couple of seasons, Cooney was outplayed by Farren Ray, and little Nicky certainly didn't start out dominating games. His first year he played 6 games, averaging a little under 10 disposals and kicking 2 goals 2 for the season. Watts is already well on track to outperform him.

[H_T 3,049]

This thread got me thinking about the history of picks 1 and 3 since 1997, should it eventuate that we end up with picks 1 and 3. Dont think it will happen at this stage, I'd say picks 1 and 2 are almost certainly ours.

So anyway, I had a look at it, and here's the list.

1997 - 1. Travis Johnstone, 3. Trent Croad.

1998 - 1. Des Headland, 3. Nic Fosdike.

1999 - 1. Josh Fraser, 3. Aaron Fiora.

2000 - 1. Nick Riewoldt, 3. Alan Didak.

2001 - 1. Luke Hodge, 3. Chris Judd.

2002 - 1. Brendan Goddard, 3. Jared Brennan.

2003 - 1. Adam Cooney, 3. Colin Sylvia.

2004 - 1. Brett Deledio, 3. Ryan Griffen.

2005 - 1. Marc Murphy, 3. Xavier Ellis.

2006 - 1. Bryce Gibbs, 3. Lachlan Hansen.

2007 - 1. Matthew Kreuzer, 3. Chris Masten.

2008 - 1. Jack Watts, 3. Stephen Hill.

I look at 1999 and then look at 2001 (in particular the No.3 picks)........................then I feel so sorry for Richmond........NOT.

[Hannabal 4]

I disagree. Neither of the two mentioned had a good time in their early matches. For the first couple of seasons, Cooney was outplayed by Farren Ray, and little Nicky certainly didn't start out dominating games. His first year he played 6 games, averaging a little under 10 disposals and kicking 2 goals 2 for the season. Watts is already well on track to outperform him.

Did you miss where I posted this: unlike the media I'm cutting draftees plenty of slack in their first year. Hence I didn't include Gibbs. So, forget their first year as I didn't include them. Riewoldt won the NAB rising star in his second year playing every game.

As for Cooney and Ray ? Wrong. Cooney played 22 games in his second year and Ray played 14. Cooney averaged 20 disposals and Ray 10. Cooney kicked 20 goals and Ray 8. Cooney was being hailed as a future star.

Try again.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Agree on both counts with Riewoldt and Cooney.

There was never doubt about Cooney's ability just the delivery of it. There was always a questions about Farren Ray

[RalphiusMaximus 6,088]

Did you miss where I posted this: unlike the media I'm cutting draftees plenty of slack in their first year. Hence I didn't include Gibbs. So, forget their first year as I didn't include them. Riewoldt won the NAB rising star in his second year playing every game.

As for Cooney and Ray ? Wrong. Cooney played 22 games in his second year and Ray played 14. Cooney averaged 20 disposals and Ray 10. Cooney kicked 20 goals and Ray 8. Cooney was being hailed as a future star.

Try again.

Actually, I did miss that bit. People tend to post longwinded tripe a lot of the time, so i'm inclined to skim a bit.

That being said, I stand by my post regarding their first years. Obviously we're judging them by diferent criteria, but this is the bit that really concerns me as so many are willing to bag Watts for his first few games despite the fact that they are significantly better than many comparable players who have become stars in the competition.

[Trisul 664]

Very true, Hannabal. It's a pity a few more media people don't understand this.

They do, they just don't care. They have 24/7 air/column/web/tv space to fill and WILL fil it.

Good thread. Good perspective.

[Carn dees 108]

Does anyone remeber if there was much hype over Gumbleton?

Was he highly rated?

[45HG 1,559]

As far as I understand, injuries aside, he still is hyped.

[Little Goffy 14,645]

Just on the Watts comparison...

Q1 -

What do the following players all have in common?

Tredrea, Hall, Brown, Pavlich, Fevola, Lloyd, Roughead, Riewoldt, Franklin?

Answer; Stats about the same as Watts has now, in their first year.

Only Richardson, of the current big name forwards, had a signifcantly better stats start with a whopping 11.4 possessions and 2.2 goals a game.

Q2:

How many games and goals did Wayne Carey get in his first season?

4, 1.

Bascially, you have to go back to Gary Ablett Snr to find a star forward who really got going in their first season, the freak kicked 3 a game even in his first year.

[45HG 1,559]

Jackovich?

[dee-luded 2,959]

Going on those stats I would almost say that having pics 1&3 is better than 1&2. Especially 2001! The draft though is still really a lucky dip, granted there is better research done and its less of a lottery but there is still the chance that you pick up a player at number 1 and he becomes injury prone or doesnt develop anymore from when they dominated the junior ranks.

Maybe we need a clause for the priority pick that says even though we choose player x, we still have the rights to swap him for player y 5 years down the track! Wouldnt get off the ground, but be nice if we had that option.

Picks - 2

1997 - 2 Richmond .................. Brad Ottens

1998 - 2 Fremantle ................ Justin Longmuir

1999 - 2 Priority Fremantle ..... Paul Hasleby

2000 - 2 Priority St Kilda ......... Justin Koschitzke

2001 - 2 Priority St Kilda ......... Luke Ball

2002 - 2 North Melbourne ........Daniel Wells

2003 - 2 Priority Carlton ......... Andrew Walker

2004 - 2 Priority Hawthorn ..... Jarryd Roughead

2005 - 2 Priority Collingwood.. Dale Thomas

2006 - 2 Essendon ................. Scott Gumbleton

2007 - 2 Richmond ................. Trent Cotchin

2008 - 2 West Coast .............. Nicholas Naitanui

[JACKATTACK 17]

As far as I understand, injuries aside, he still is hyped.

I have a lot of essendon mates who don't rate him at all. Geez I hope none of our top picks turn out like that.

[Hannabal 4]

Just on the Watts comparison...

Bascially, you have to go back to Gary Ablett Snr to find a star forward who really got going in their first season, the freak kicked 3 a game even in his first year.

Terrible comparison. Ablett was 22 in his first year at Geelong in 1984.

[Einstein 1]

Terrible comparison. Ablett was 22 in his first year at Geelong in 1984.

Just a note, he was 20 when he played his first game for Hawthorn, kicking 9 goals in 6 games.

But yeah, he was 22 when he played his first year at Geelong. In fact, he was turning 23 in October that year. He kicked 33 goals in 15 games that season.

Yeah, the comparison with Watts' start in football isn't a good one, due mainly to Abletts age and his physical development. He was already a powerful and explosive player when he first began playing.

[Hannabal 4]

Just a note, he was 20 when he played his first game for Hawthorn, kicking 9 goals in 6 games.

Yeah, I know. My Brother was on Hawthorn's senior list and played reserves footy with him when he was 17.

I didn't bring up his Hawthorn time because it was irrelevant to Distance Demon's point.

[Einstein 1]

Yeah, I know. My Brother was on Hawthorn's senior list and played reserves footy with him when he was 17.

I didn't bring up his Hawthorn time because it was irrelevant to Distance Demon's point.

Yeah, I thought that. No worries. I was just meaning to point out that when he did first play, in his first games for Hawthorn, he didn't exactly set the world on fire either. Wasn't until about 1985 that he started to really show his stuff.

I was just watching some Youtube clips of Ablett Snr, and it's easy to forget how good he was. If you were a mad scientist putting together the ultimate physical specimen for a footballer, he'd pretty much be it.

[ickey_11 145]

Bascially, you have to go back to Gary Ablett Snr to find a star forward who really got going in their first season, the freak kicked 3 a game even in his first year.

Gary Ablett also played a lot of that year in the backline so I think that these figures are dodgey.