Not good enough to win 5 games

[Grand New Flag 3,226]

Hi all,

I was disappointed with yesterdays game but not surprised. We have a young team that by its nature of being young will be inconsistent. I have noted that in most games during the season (not yesterday) the MFC has started well and faded in the 3rd and last quarter as the older, stronger lists have the stamina to maintain the pressure against our kids. I expect that this will not only happen during games but will also happen as the season moves on. In other words it is likely that our kids will get sore, tire and find it more difficult to compete as the season moves into its late stages. Certainly this was the case last season.

With 11 rounds to play I see only 5 games that we have any realistic chance of winning. It is unlikely we will win more than 50% of the games we have a realistic chance in.

R14: West Coke (MCG)

R15: Port Adelaide (MCG) - I think a win here is unlikely but possible

R18: Richmond (MCG)

R19: North (MCG)

R20: Freo (MCG)

In my view it is highly unlikely we will win more than 3 of these, especially considering that we are likely to "list manage" through the final rounds if we are any chance of reaching the dreaded 5th win. The reality is that we will be the laughing stock of the competition if we win 5 games. We will not.

By the way its our midfield not forward line which is our main concern, it is by far the worst midfield in the comp, perhaps the worst midfield I have ever seen at AFL level. Scully is desperately needed.

With Scully and Butcher + pick 18 we will have the list that should develop into something special. I'm excited.

[LITTLE STINGA 1]

If we do not get a priority Bailey and everyone involved at Melbourne should be immediately sacked. The Collingwood game showed how much we desperately need them. I'm sick of the young team crap. I don't think Collingwood would be much older. When are the pathetic leadership group going to take some responsibility for the mess we are in? They are the problem not the youngsters.

[Jarka 767]

I agree regarding the our midfield and the fact that we'll end up with a pp pick. I think our biggest decision now will be who we selct with our second pick and as much as I like the look of Butcher two talented mids is very, very tempting

[Grand New Flag 3,226]

Jarka: I completely agree. 2 midfielders may be necessary over Butcher.

[Yencks 8]

this is enough to get my excited

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/afl...9-19742,00.html

[Yencks 8]

Jarka: I completely agree. 2 midfielders may be necessary over Butcher.

perhaps grimes, blease and strauss can make up for this...

[sylvinator 96]

R14: West Coke (MCG)

R15: Port Adelaide (MCG) - I think a win here is unlikely but possible

R18: Richmond (MCG)

R19: North (MCG)

R20: Freo (MCG)

Apart from the recent Collingwood game, if you look at the way we are playing (lose to Bullies, WCE by less than 3 goals), it might be easy to assume MFC could win most of these games. HOWEVER, I tend to agree that we will NOT win most of these games.

Once we start getting a few injuries, with about 6 rounds to go we will definitely start managing our list accordingly. Any players that have ongoing problems will be sent to surgery so that they will be 100% right for the first day of pre-season.

Youngers will be tried who will benefit from the games, but, like Watts, are too young, thin and inexperienced to have a proper impact at senior level.

Look for Jurrah, Strauss, Bail, Tom McNamara, Jetta, Bennel, Spenser, Cheney, Buckley and Watts to play plenty of games in the second half of the year... i even reckon Hughes and McKenzie (pick 1 rookie draft) will be given a few games.

With all these guyz getting games we will be MUCH less competitive than we are at the moment. And I think we can all agree that even ATM we are not very good....

Nonethless this season will be considered a success for the following reasons

- much better onfield performances. Last year average 65pt losses, this year averaging 30pt losses...

- Getting a full extra season of experience for Frawley, Morton, Grimes, Maric, Bennel, Martin, Cheney

- our older players are now only fringe players who are not relied upon to play well- McDonald, Whelan, Wheatley, Robbo

- a couple of youngish players have had breakout seasons- Sylvia, Davey, Warnock

- a couple of youngish players have come back from long term injuries to show they are important to our future- Rivers, Moloney

- we have had proper opportunity to give fringe players lots of games to figure out whether or not they are capable- Bartram, Dunn, Newton, Pettard- and realized now that they are going to be solid depth at best. No more wondering whether or not they are good enough.

- we can look forward to the return of two key players in the latter half of the season who will be primed for 2010- Garland, Wonaeamirri

- We will get 2 potential superstars at pick 1 and 2, plus pick 18 and 36, plus PSD pick 1, plus Blease, who will be like a first year player for us.

[Sir Why You Little 34,657]

If we do not get a priority Bailey and everyone involved at Melbourne should be immediately sacked. The Collingwood game showed how much we desperately need them. I'm sick of the young team crap. I don't think Collingwood would be much older. When are the pathetic leadership group going to take some responsibility for the mess we are in? They are the problem not the youngsters.

Collingwoods collective age was 5 years younger than ours. The Game was lost upstairs in the Head area. That to me is a major worry.

[Roost It 1,434]

perhaps grimes, blease and strauss can make up for this...

A midfield of Blease, Strauss, Grimes, Jones, Mckenzie and Scully will be competitive. If there was another gun midfielder available it would be tempting. I think Scully and Butcher would be favourites so far but only time will tell.

For the record I don't think Mclean and Moloney will be the answer.

[Strawbsodwyer 0]

I have said this before but if west coast don't win 5 they get priority as well, therefore there is a big big chance we will get 1 & 3 which might eliminate us from getting butcher or scully. I can't see west coast winning many, they have put the cue in the rack for this season.

[H_T 2,941]

I have said this before but if west coast don't win 5 they get priority as well, therefore there is a big big chance we will get 1 & 3 which might eliminate us from getting butcher or scully. I can't see west coast winning many, they have put the cue in the rack for this season.

Let's see them against Richmond this week before we say they've put the cue in the rack.

[Demonic_Inferno 17]

Collingwoods collective age was 5 years younger than ours. The Game was lost upstairs in the Head area. That to me is a major worry.

It's been explained in another thread but with a couple of minor changes we're younger than them.

Malthouse and his games.

[1858 219]

I have said this before but if west coast don't win 5 they get priority as well, therefore there is a big big chance we will get 1 & 3 which might eliminate us from getting butcher or scully. I can't see west coast winning many, they have put the cue in the rack for this season.

Correct, finals have officially been written off by Worsfold and it is reasonable to expect WCE to employ "list management" like any club in their position. We will have to wait and see how things are closer to the end of the season before we pencil in picks.

[cooko 124]

Let's see them against Richmond this week before we say they've put the cue in the rack.

exactly.. they only lost to the cats by 2 something goals.. i dont think they will have problems getting over 4 wins

[drdrake 3,045]

Have any of you watch Fremantle, West Coast, Richmond, North play recently, they are rubbish. We have just finished a tough block of matches and for 5 of the 6 games we played well, but we where beaten by the top 4 teams from last year plus West Coast away and the Pies. IMo we have a very good chance of winning 5 games and I hope we do. We have been the worse team in the comp for the last 2 years we have enough kids and even if we win 5 or 6 we will still get another top 4 pick and a top 25 pick.

We need to start winning the games we should and the 5 mentioned are games we should, I don't care about priority picks I want to start winning.

[1858 219]

exactly.. they only lost to the cats by 2 something goals.. i dont think they will have problems getting over 4 wins

Until yesterday we looked like being competitive as well. WCE could have a few wins to put them over 4 for the season no arguement but lets just see how they go first. Their priorities may not necessarily be wins anymore and there are many ways that a club can go about effecting the circumstantial aspects of their game whilst still looking competitive.

[DangerousDemon 3]

perhaps grimes, blease and strauss can make up for this...

Thats exactly right mate and again people go off half cocked because we didnt win 7 out of 11 games or what they deemed as expectable. Seriously pull your heads in people what do you expect this is an example of the juvenile and ill informed crap that Collingwood supporters were yelling in my ear all Monday. If you claim to be any better than Collingwood supporters pull your socks up and start supporting the club.

[Carn dees 108]

Blease, Grimes, Strauss, Morton, Scully, Bennell.

Our younger Mids. Another would be great.

I dont care weather a mid or a forward is taken. We shouldnt expect anything from Jurrah yet. And we have Watts,

Over all i do lean to taking Butcher.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

I disagree with this. I reckon the minimum we'll win is 4. Come round 21 and 22, we'll be playing the Blues (not agaaaaain) and Saints and hoping that we don't knock them off. Part of me would love us to enter rounds 20-22 with one win though. We could start barracking for our club again.

[ChaserJ 3,972]

I have said this before but if west coast don't win 5 they get priority as well, therefore there is a big big chance we will get 1 & 3 which might eliminate us from getting butcher or scully. I can't see west coast winning many, they have put the cue in the rack for this season.

I still think we're a safe bet for pick 1, so we would still get the pick of who we consider the best (Scully). Pick 3 is still going to be a very good pick. Griffith's or Fitzpatrick if we go tall (if Butcher's out of play), Stevens, Lucas, Morabito or Christensen if we go for a mid. Be happy with anyone of those.

[Einstein 1]

It's been explained in another thread but with a couple of minor changes we're younger than them.

Malthouse and his games.

Definately a case of Malthouse twisting the 'truth' to promote his chances of coaching on next season. Player age stats can be skewed to suit any purpose.

I still think we're a safe bet for pick 1, so we would still get the pick of who we consider the best (Scully). Pick 3 is still going to be a very good pick. Griffith's or Fitzpatrick if we go tall (if Butcher's out of play), Stevens, Lucas, Morabito or Christensen if we go for a mid. Be happy with anyone of those.

Agree. I am more concerned with simply getting the first pick so we can snatch Scully than I am about getting picks 1 and 2.

Sure, 1 and 2 would be nice, but Scully is the standout at number 1. If we should get 1 and 3, we can live with that. It won't be our fault that West Coast win less than 5 games.

It seems we will finish last, the odds makers certainly believe we will. We are currently $1.33 to finish bottom at Centrebet, with Richmond second favourite at $4.15. Bookies aren't idiots. They do their homework. These odds are a good indication of our chances of getting off the bottom.

[Guest sticksmorton]

Scully seems to be a definate pick 1

But i'm not sure about Butcher at 2, I haven't seen him play just highlights and alot of reviews (probably about the same as anyone else around here). But players of his size tend to dominate at under 18 level, he is a giant at his age and defenders at his age dont have the size or shape to match him so he stands out like big pair of boobs on a well framed girl. He gets alot of attention because he is one of a kind but at AFL level this changes. I wouldn't be surprised if clubs jump off him come draft time (just a feeling).

[Binmans PA 26,289]

I wouldn't be surprised if we came out and beat Essendon....

[Freak 100]

Scully seems to be a definate pick 1

But i'm not sure about Butcher at 2, I haven't seen him play just highlights and alot of reviews (probably about the same as anyone else around here). But players of his size tend to dominate at under 18 level, he is a giant at his age and defenders at his age dont have the size or shape to match him so he stands out like big pair of boobs on a well framed girl. He gets alot of attention because he is one of a kind but at AFL level this changes. I wouldn't be surprised if clubs jump off him come draft time (just a feeling).

flawed logic. According to your logic if you are a genuinly good tall forward of course you are going to dominate at under18 level. because you are good AND big!...Jonathan Brown would have dominated under 18 level too but you would have said no to him because he only dominated because he is big?

Why would we get scully anyway? we;ll beat richmond again when we play them for the 2nd time and that would take us to equal points as them meaning its basically 50/50

[Binmans PA 26,289]

...we;ll beat richmond again when we play them for the 2nd time and that would take us to equal points as them meaning its basically 50/50

It depends what happens next round. Do the Tigers not play the Weasles? In Melbourne, whatsmore.