Match Preview - Round 11 Collingwood v Melbourne by DaVe86

[DaVe86 0]

Hi guys, hopefully you remember me from my Round 2 preview. Here is this weeks match preview

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For the 2nd time in 2009, Collingwood meet Melbourne at the MCG. Collingwood are coming off the back of 2 consecutive wins, which is the first time the club has managed this in 2009. Melbourne on the other hand have lost their last 6, however have clearly had the toughest draw in this period of any other club. In fact, despite sitting at the bottom of the ladder, Melbourne is actually playing some respectable footy.

The past 6 losses have been to St.Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, West Coast (in Perth), Geelong and Adelaide (in Adelaide). Facing Collingwood this round, Melbourne has now played 6 of the top 8 teams from last year in the past 7 rounds, and 3 of the top 4 sides in 2009. That’s a horror draw. Collingwood have played only 4 of those sides so far this year and has lost to 3 of them. So perhaps Melbourne are not going as badly as their ladder position suggests.

Most importantly, these 2 clubs are playing in the traditional Monday Queen’s Birthday clash…a game Melbourne have an uncanny ability to lift for. I suppose for the Demons, this is the biggest Home and Away clash and their biggest chance to play in front of a large crowd. On the other hand, Collingwood has seemingly lacked motivation in the recent QB encounters, leading coach Mick Malthouse to declare the club was suffering from ‘Blockbuster fatigue’ following the game last year.

For Collingwood, who now have the top 4 back in their sites, Monday’s match is an 8 point clash. Let’s face it, and I apologise to Demons supporters reading this, but in such an even competition, no team can afford to drop games against Melbourne. That should be the one game the top 8 sides pencil in as a win every year. And fortunately for Collingwood, they get to face the Demons twice in the first half of the year. These sides have played each other twice in the same year only on one occasion this decade (Round 20, 2007).

So this is a huge opportunity for Collingwood to really play themselves into form and go into the mid-season break full of momentum and pushing for top 4. A win would mean 3 on the trot, a feat which seemed unlikely a month ago.

But Melbourne will not lie down. The Saints had difficulty dispensing with the Demons in the first half, as did Geelong and Hawthorn, whilst Western Bulldogs only scraped across the line in a game the Demons dominated. So they will come out fired up and will most likely give the Magpies real head-aches early. The test for the Demons is to sustain that sort of intensity over 4 quarters. At this stage they don’t have the experience in their 22 to do that.

Recent History

Melbourne looked set to give Collingwood a scare in Round 2 earlier this year. They were 13 points up at quarter time, and only 7 down at half time. However, it was an Alan Didak, Dane Swan and John Anthony inspired 2nd half surge that saw the Magpies run away with the game as 53 point winners. Josh Fraser was also fantastic with 26 hitouts and 25 disposals in a game he rucked solo.

Swan was the leading disposal getter with 33, whilst Didak and Pendlebury had 29 and 26 respectively.

For the Demons, Davey was probably the best player with 31 disposals, whilst Bruce gained 30 and Nathan Jones 26 (a day he would probably like to forget for the post match incident)

Collingwood have won the previous 3 encounters against Melbourne, and the past 2 QB matches. However, prior to this it was Melbourne who had won 4 Queen’s Birthday matches on the trot. Brock McLean usually enjoys playing against Collingwood and always figures predominantly in the possession count. However, he was quiet in Round 2, but is now in much better form.

The Teams, Injury News and Selection

For the first time in a long time, Collingwood is injury free. Medhurst remains the only player on the injury list, but is down as a test and has been training freely. He is in line for selection.

Didak and Thomas made successful returns last week, whilst Josh Fraser seems as though he is gradually recovering from his knee injury.

Travis Cloke has recovered from his hamstring injury but may not be brought straight back into the senior lineup. Rocca and Johnson are off the injury list as well, but will most likely require VFL time to rebuild match fitness. Sean Rusling also returns from his cheekbone injury and can re-start his bid to return to the senior side after terrible shoulder issues.

This weeks selection takes on a totally different challenge. For the first time in weeks, it is actually fitting players in that is the hard part. Of recent times, it has been a matter of selecting whoever is fit enough to put on the boots.

The major question mark I believe hovers over whether the coaching staff are willing to bring Medhurst and Cloke straight into the senior lineup. Personally, I am of the strong opinion that Paul Medhurst should be a guarantee to play if he is declared fit. Medhurst was in great form before his injury and is a vital cog in the Collingwood forward line. He is the only All Australian player from 2008, and was the Magpie’s leading goal-kicker. Though it will be unlucky to whomever he replaces, the fact is that Medhurst is in the 5 players in the club and should be an automatic selection.

I am not as stubborn on Cloke. Though Cloke remains an important player, he brings no form whatsoever to the table. There were calls for him to be dropped prior to his hamstring injury. In fact many believe that it was a good thing Cloke was injured because it saved the club having to drop him. Therefore, coming off a hamstring injury, he may be required to regain touch in the VFL.

The other factor here is that Collingwood has a bye the week after before travelling to Sydney. This means that the club can get match fitness into certain players in the VFL if necessary. Perhaps the club will go ultra-cautious on both Medhurst and Cloke and play them in the VFL next week. Or conversely, the club may chose to include the 2 and use the split round to give them a 2 week break to recover from their return game.

I’d be making the 1 change.

In: Medhurst

Out: Cox

Though I am his harshest critic, I thought Cox was fantastic last week. I just think it would be the wise move to go in with the most attacking lineup and look to build on the good form from last week. Cox ultimately is a loose man in defence type player, a role that Maxwell and Shaw already play. The other option is to give Presti or Nathan Brown a rest considering the Demons lack many Key Position forwards.

Rocca should not return. His selection would mean that Leigh Brown would have to be omitted. Though I am no Leigh Brown fan, he played a great game last week, and atleast offers more options around the ground. I would leave Steele Sidebottom in the side despite only notching up 12 disposals last week. I thought his 12 disposals were very clean, he kicked a goal, and looks a real prospect worth getting more gametime into.

The Demons on the other hand look set to unleash their prized number 1 draft pick Jack Watts. Melbourne has pretty much confirmed he will be a certain starter on Queen’s Birthday, despite the fact he has VCE exams only days later.

The whole football world has been waiting to see Jack Watts, and hopefully a good crowd comes out to see this guy make his debut. In what seems like a really strong draft, Watts was a slightly controversial selection but has all the makings to be one of the stars of the comp.

In other selection news, Russel Robertson must be in line for recall after kicking 3 goals 6 in the VFL last week. I doubt Robbo will be that inaccurate too often, so his forward line presence would be a positive influence on young Watts.

Young Kyle Cheney may also get a senior recall after a strong performance in the 2’s last week. Cheney is a gutsy player who has impressed me in his few AFL games this year.

Coming off 6 straight losses, regardless of who the opposition are, Melbourne should be dropping the players who have not stood up against the better teams. I know its hard to expect too much from the youngsters against top 4 sides, but playing the best gives the best indication as to who is up to it and who is not. And what’s more, it is some of the more experienced players who have been underperforming.

Brad Miller has had an ordinary fortnight after a good start to the year. He was quite good in Round 2 against Collingwood granted, but with Robbo and Watts to come into the side, it should be Miller who parts way. Bailey has indicated that he will be selecting his side based on form, and Miller’s last 2 weeks haven’t been good enough, where as a senior player he should’ve stepped up against the stronger sides.

The skipper James McDonald is also struggling with a knee injury that looks likely to sideline him this round. I find it highly unlikely that the Demons will risk the veteran.

I think there will be 3 changes minimum, so guys hanging onto their spots may be Whelan, Bell or Martin. I personally think Whelan is a good player and may be required on one of the Collingwood small forwards. A potential good matchup for Didak.

So my prediction is:

In: Cheney, Robertson, Watts

Outs: Miller, Bell, McDonald

Also keep an eye out for Liam Jurrah, former Collingwood VFL player, who has recently made his mark at the Demons and is closing in on selection. He was the Demons pre-season first round pick. Would be exciting for Demons fans to see their 2 number 1 picks named to debut in the 1 match.

Matchups

I always struggle with the Melbourne matchups. Their forward line is continually changing and unsettled, which in turn makes it very hard to set matchups. This has actually worked in the Demons favour in recent years as it has often caught Collingwood by surprise.

Melbourne forward line:

Maxwell v Watts – Think the Magpies should put the skipper on Watts first up and ensure that he is kept out of the game. The last thing Collingwood wants is the debutant to kick an early goal and get the fans into the game and give the Demons momentum.

Robertson v Harry O’Brien – Harry is the most versatile defender and should be able to blanket Robbo who has been kicking goals, but lacking his usual effectiveness on games.

Sylvia v Toovey – Think Collingwood should really keep an eye on Sylvia, who has really come of age over the last month. I sadi earlier that playing the best teams allows you to find out about your players. I think the Demons have finally found out that Sylvia has what it takes. It’s been a long time coming for Demons fans, but his form has been consistent and he winning a lot of the ball.

Sylvia has been playing predominantly as a half forward flanker/midfielder. Toovey is potentially also an option for Robertson as he played on Ebert last week to great effect. However, I think we utilise Toovey’s speed and spoiling ability to keep Sylvia out of the game.

Clarke v Maric – I think Clarke will start on Maric and look to run off him. Maric can be dangerous so Clarke will have to keep tight.

That leaves Collingwood with dilemma’s over Prestigiacomo and Nathan Brown. If Miller is dropped, it leaves them no real opponent. I think Nathan Brown will be used on the resting ruckman. Jamar and Johnson can play forward, and without a real presence up there, I predict Bailey will rotate these guys up there. If Miller is dropped, then Presti could be used on Brad Green if he plays forward. However, I’m sure Melbourne would exploit this matchup by pushing him into the midfield. Could this be a case for resting Presti??? Perhaps as he has been suffering shoulder troubles and would get a fantastic 3 week rest with the split round ahead. Or the other option is to play him on Bate.

Midfield:

O’Bree v Mclean – Undoubtedly a head to head matchup. McLean, like Sylvia has played good footy over the last month. He is Melbourne’s in and under midfielder, and I think Malthouse will back in O’Bree to go head to head in the stoppages.

Pendlebury v Morton – Cale Morton has probably been Melbourne’s best story this year. The coveted pick 4 last year has really come of age against the good sides and is establishing himself as a big ball winner with fantastic footskills. The Demons have been using him head to head against oppositions best midfielders. From what I could tell he started on Montagna last week. Pendlebury and Morton are probably similar in terms of height, build and each have good footskills. Could be a good matchup.

Swan v Moloney – Swan is coming off a record 48 disposals against Port Adelaide, so I doubt the Demons will allow him to play that loose. He also towelled the Demons up in round 2. Perhaps Moloney will go onto Swan and play him tight. Would be a good matchup between 2 tough nuts. I think if McDonald plays, he will get this job.

Thomas v Bruce – Dale was ok last week. Low on possessions, but got involved and helped swing momentum back to Collingwood. Bruce has not been in fantastic form throughout 2009, but is one to be watched none the less. He picked up 25 disposals last week.

Wellingham v Davey – Aaron Davey is having a good year. Was tagged tightly last week by Clint Jones and has had to deal with more tags of late. Its his footskills that are worrying teams. Melbourne supporters are actually claiming he is the best kick in the comp at the moment. Given his incredible speed, Wellingham is probably the matchup here. Davey may try and get loose across half back, so I would be trying to keep him accountable.

Collingwood Forward line

Anthony v Warnock – Jack continues to kick multiple goals. He is yet to have a goalless game in his 21 game career. Warnock is a promising defender and may be called upon for this task.

Didak v Whelan – I think until Didak regains match fitness, he will be used predominantly as a forward. Whelan has made his career out of playing on the small forwards, and is best suited for this role.

Davis v Frawley – Davis is a tough matchup for Melbourne. Perhaps with Bartram in the side he would be the guy but I doubt he will be brought back in. Perhaps Frawley will get the run with job on Davis.

Grimes v Lockyer – Jack Grimes has been another good news story for Melbourne to come out of the last month. The first round pick (obtained from the Wood trade), has been quick to make his mark after suffering injuries in his first year and early this year. He has been playing loose across half back and getting solid numbers. Might be a good idea to put the dangerous Lockyer onto him and see if he can be accountable.

Medhurst (if fit) v Rivers – Rivers has not been in great form, but is probably the best matchup for him.

Bennell v Dick – What an exciting matchup this would be. Bennell played as a small defender last week on Schneider. Dick is coming off his career best game, picking up 25 disposals and snagging a few goals. I think he will retain his spot despite the names pushing for selection.

Ruck:

Wood/Fraser v Jamar/Johnson – Fraser destroyed Johnson and Spencer in round 2, but Jamar’s return may unsettle Josh. That said, Cameron Wood is coming off 2 solid games where he has faced Cox, Lade and Brogan.

I feel that if Melbourne are any hope, a lot of it has to come from their ruckmen. Typically Collingwood struggles against the bigger bodied ruckmen as Josh and Wood are skinny. Considering Josh is still slightly limited with his knee injury, his versatility around the ground has been slightly missing lately. I still think Collingwood would fancy themselves to win the ruck.

The Wrap-Up

Firstly, I’d just like to say to all Collingwood fans to be on best behaviour on Monday. Given it is a public holiday and against an arch enemy, there presents the possibility of a few drunken fans or aggressive supporters.

After the terrible incident in Round 2 where Nathan Jones’ dad was bashed by an idiotic Collingwood fan, let’s just hope that as a support group, we can display ourselves in a better light on Monday. I feel Collingwood supporters as a group have improved dramatically in terms of behaviour in the last decade. However, incidents such as this one undo all the good work. Unfortunately a good man was hurt and Collingwood’s image was as well. I hope Mr. Jones is able to watch his son play this week and can feel safe.

Melbourne, as always, will fancy themselves against the Pies. They have nothing to lose, and a win will not effect a potential priority draft pick at the end of the year. I think they will be looking to this game to boost the confidence on the youngsters. Playing Jack Watts might also give a boost.

But ultimately I think Collingwood is beginning to kick into gear, and with a full list to chose from, the depth in the top 22 is far better than Melbourne’s. Melbourne is playing good attacking football and is troubling all sides, but is unable to sustain it over 4 quarters. That said, Collingwood has not played 4 quarters yet this year.

It should be a good game. As I am no longer tipping Collingwood in my previews, I’ll go Melbourne by 3 points.

By David Natoli

aka DaVe86

[Carn dees 108]

wow nicely done, i agree with your in and outs.

[jackie_moon 0]

that is straight of the collingwood forums but it is a great report and suprisingly unbiased for magpies fan. good job

[titan_uranus 25,000]

Nicely written Dave. I like seeing outsider's takes on Melbourne. And I agree with your Melbourne changes.

I notice you too have got no match-up for Martin (assuming Cloke doesn't play). Interesting times at the selection table for both clubs this week.

I don't think Rivers can take Medhurst's speed, and is a much better match up for Anthony. Whelan/Cheney could take Medhurst or Davis.

[Doggo 32]

Thanks for the write-up Dave, nice to see you back. Once again a very good, balanced preview. You're definitely the 1st (only) Pies supporter i know who's tipped Melbourne.

Should be a good match and a fantastic day for footy!

JACK WATTS!!!!!!!!!

[DaVe86 0]

Thanks for the write-up Dave, nice to see you back. Once again a very good, balanced preview. You're definitely the 1st (only) Pies supporter i know who's tipped Melbourne.

Should be a good match and a fantastic day for footy!

JACK WATTS!!!!!!!!!

hahaha, i refuse to tip Collingwood ever again. Not once in the last 2 years have they won when I've tipped them. So I'm doing my bit for the team and tipping against them.

Thanks for having me back guys.

I'd like to stress the point at the end that I'm hoping for good crowd behaviour on Monday. These public holidays are notorious for drunken louts ruining the day. I for one hope Nathan Jones' dad can feel safe going to the game on Monday...and hope all other supporters can enjoy the day with little fuss.

melbourne fans, i urge you to make it. Not cracking 60K last year was a disgrace...largely because Collingwood fans didnt turn up (melbourne fans were mostly there)

Hopefully this year we can push 70. But that means you guys have to do your bit as well.

[JACKATTACK 17]

Nice one dave.

The key here is Davis and Didak, we probably can't stop just one of these and definately can't stop both. If JMac is injured Bartram will need to play, Whelan can only do so much. If Medhurst plays I can see it getting ugly.

[Sideshow Bob 2,369]

Cheers Dave, once again a top read.

As well as everyone else i see your small forwards as our main problem, especially if medhurst comes in. Didak medhurst lockyer and neon leon - 4 small/mids. we have a tall backline at present - i'm not too sure about frawley and rivers covering these types. For me we need Wheels and Grimes to play well on dids and medhurst, hopefully have Flash play off half back meaning Lockyer would be playing a defensive forward role, and bring in Cheney for the other small (davis). That leaves Warnock to play on Anthony and rivers to complete the back 6. Stef Martin needs to go forward [or maybe gets a rest if there isn't a matchup]. That still leaves Frawley as a spare defensive player to cover tall or short if needed

[H_T 3,043]

Thanks for that DaVe86. Great insight into the match-ups and excellent wrap-up.

[45HG 1,539]

Thanks for the writeup Dave, except that Collingwood have won the past 1 QB - not the past 2.

[Demonland 72,155]

Thanks for that DaVe86.

Now, can any Demonlander match that from our perspective?

Best post gets into out official Demonland pre match thread.

[45HG 1,539]

Demonland, personally I think that's one of the best things about DaVe86's post - it is so balanced and doesn't really seem to come from one "perspective."

It'd be a good effort to match this balanced preview.

DaVe, if your prediction is right....I don't even know what I'll do

[Demonland 72,155]

Demonland, personally I think that's one of the best things about DaVe86's post - it is so balanced and doesn't really seem to come from one "perspective."

It'd be a good effort to match this balanced preview.

DaVe, if your prediction is right....I don't even know what I'll do

You're right in the respect that it's not unbiased but I wanted to get a perspective from one of the rank and file Demon fans. But you're right about the balance in terms of lack of bias and I think we'll run with most of it if DaVe86 has no objection.

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

Dave86:

Your a class act, you are always welcome on this site.

.......................did I just say that about a Collingwood supporter??!?!?!?!?

[rpfc 28,383]

Good write up but...

Collingwood have to win this game, there is a top 4 spot up for grabs with Geel, St K, and the WB.

Malthouse will have them going, I really want to see JW do something but we are so young and down on confidence.

We will be thereabouts at HT and then our obligatory 3rd quarter 'seize' will come into effect and we will lose by 3 or 4 goals.

I don't want it to happen, and I am really happy with the other three quarters this year, but the third kills us and it will again on Monday.

Some quick stats - we get outscored (on average) by 14.7 points accumatively in the 1st (3.5), 2nd (9.6), and 4th (1.6) quarters, and we get outscored by 12.3 points in the 3rd alone.

[45HG 1,539]

And yet our average losing margin is 30.9?

Ah, I see what you've done. We've lost 9, not 10, but your point is still valid. I posted earlier in the week about our hopeless 3rd quarters - I can't remember where though

[rpfc 28,383]

And yet our average losing margin is 30.9?

Ah, I see what you've done. We've lost 9, not 10, but your point is still valid. I posted earlier in the week about our hopeless 3rd quarters - I can't remember where though

TBH, I got the stats straight from AFL.allthestats.com.

We start and finish games well, but have trouble with the middle part.

[PhilReadFury 1]

Dave Natoli..... Dont suppose you are the brother of Matt?

[titan_uranus 25,000]

Collingwood

B: Harry O’Brien, Simon Prestigiacomo, Shannon Cox

HB: Nick Maxwell, Leigh Brown, Sharrod Wellingham

C: Brad Dick, Tarkyn Lockyer, Dale Thomas

HF: Scott Pendlebury, Travis Cloke, Leon Davis

F: Alan Didak, John Anthony, Heath Shaw

Foll: Josh Fraser, Dane Swan, Shane O’Bree

I/C (from): Nathan Brown, Martin Clarke, Paul Medhurst, Ben Reid, Steele Sidebottom, Alan Toovey, Cameron Wood

In: Travis Cloke, Paul Medhurst, Ben Reid

Out: -

[DaVe86 0]

Dave Natoli..... Dont suppose you are the brother of Matt?

i am

[Jerry Lundergard 420]

The matchups against the Pies forwards will be interesting to see, and i suspect this is why Martin has been dropped due to their small/mid size forwards.

My matchups would be:

Warnock v Cloke. That gives us a big on a big.

Frawley v Anthony. I rate Jack as their most dangerous leading forward and best kick, and i think Frawley with his speed and size is an ideal matchup.

Rivers v Brown. If Brown plays forward again, rivers can go to him which would allow him to zone off which he does so well.

Whelan v Didak. Hopefully the experience of Whelan can keep Didak in check.

Bennell v Dick. Simlar to Dave86, this would be an exciting matchup, with Dick coming off a great game last week.

Davis v Bruce. This one is a bit leftfield, but from what i have seen of Davis this year he has been getting is possessions all over the ground. So why not make him a bit more accountable when in his back half and have Cam Bruce play on him and maybe snag a couple of goals on him. If they decide to run him exclusively as a forward then they can make a switch.

Grimes v Lockyer. Once again another solid matchup, of two very solid players.

[Kiss of Death 755]

Love your work Dave, i remember your great write-up before round 2 as well. Cheers

[Adam The God 30,220]

TBH, I got the stats straight from AFL.allthestats.com.

We start and finish games well, but have trouble with the middle part.

Well, to be honest, I think the first 5 to 10 minutes of a match we struggle with too. The amount of times this year that a goal has been kicked quickly against us would be quite high. That said, as the season has progressed we've improved in this area. Certainly, the general pattern earlier in the year was to conceed the first goal or two and then work ourselves back into the contest and be close by quarter time.