The count down is on!

[Jarka 767]

16 to go

Sure it's going to hurt now, but 5 years in the future when Watts and Bailey are holding the premiership cup we'll look back and think it was the best thing that ever happened.

[H_T 3,043]

You could start a tracker, much like 'Jaded' with Rivers games tracker..... .

Who will be the other teams in contention? Fremantle? Richmond? Essendon?

[45HG 1,539]

I'm missing something aren't I...

[Kit Walker 225]

I'm missing something aren't I...

He's talking about losses this year so we don't win more than 4.

[45HG 1,539]

Ahhh, i get the horrible feeling it may be higher

[H_T 3,043]

Ahhh, i get the horrible feeling it may be higher

.....everytime I look at the fixture too.

[montasaurus 0]

.....everytime I look at the fixture too.

so long as we are "competative" ala nth, I'll take 21 honourable losses with 1 win on queens birthday! with a dodgy free kick after the final siren to win by a point!

[mo64 5,853]

I find this perverse and pathetic that supporters are promoting losing...........

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

Like most of you, I love the Melbourne Football Club and go almost every week. I have watched through all the pain of the last two seasons and been at the G for our first two hit outs this season. I think we are improving and that the signs for the future are good. However, there is no way in the world we will win 5 games this year. Simply we are not good enough.

Last year we won 3 games all against interstate teams at the MCG. Two of these games we one by less than a goal and there were very few other games we were competitive and were a chance of winning.

Looking at the fixture the games that we are likely to win are all in the second half of the season. In fact not to round 14 do I give us much chance of a win.

R3 Port - AAMI - Considering our record at AAMI stadium, a win would be a loss by less than 6 goals. No chance of winning.

R4 Rich - MCG - Perhaps our best chance of winning a game in the first half of the season but still unlikely. Tiger pain and Tiger hunger will not let them lose this one.

R5 Adel - MCG - Adelaide would need to put in shocker, they beat Collingwood at G last week and appear to be a far better team.

R6 Geel – MCG – No chance

R7 WC – Subiaco – Winning interstate is still someway off for this team. We will not beat West Coast at home.

R8 WB – MCG – WB simply too strong and experienced. It would take a major upset. Highly unlikely.

R9 Haw – MCG – Too skilled, too strong, too much talent. Simply no chance.

R10 St.K – Gold – I rate St. Kilda this season, they will come top 4 maybe top 2. We will not win this one.

R11 Coll – MCG – We match up well with this group, but they are a likely top 4 experienced side. Very slim chance of winning. Mass improvement from last weekend required.

R12 Ess – Telstra – Hard to see us winning away from the MCG. Essendon will probably be too fast and slick for us at Telstra Dome. If this game was at the MCG I would give us some chance but hard to see us winning at Telstra. Melbourne would need to have a great day. Some chance of winning but unlikely.

R13 Brisb – Gabba – Can’t see us winning interstate.

R14 WCE – MCG – A very good chance of winning this one. WCE will struggle to win games away from Subi and we will probably be due for a win by this stage.

R15 Port – MCG- If Ports seasons has not gone sour due to their high expectations, we will have a fair chance of winning this one.

R16 Geel – Skilled – No comment required

R17 Syd – Manuka – Sydney will not loss this one. Sydney have great support and a great record at this ground. Their experience and big bodies are likely to be too much for the young Dees.

R18 Rich – MCG – If as likely the Tiger wheels have fallen off, we are a chance here.

R19 NM – Telstra – Outside chance of a win, however NM likely to be in running for top 8 and will not let this one go.

R20 Frem – MCG – We could go in favourites, on paper our most likely win.

R21 Carton – Telstra – We will almost give this one away if a Priority Draft Pick was up for grabs. If so bet your house we will lose. Even if you get $1.10.

R22 St.Ki – MCG – The top 4 bound St.Kilda Men are likely to destroy the tired worn out Melb Boys, our boys looking to the break an priority pick, their men with thoughts on a Flag. No chance.

The way I see it we are unlikely to win a game until the second half of the season. 4 wins in the second half of the season would be a good return but would also be about as much as we could hope for.

I know we are likely to have a shock win along the way (can’t wait), but we are certainly not going to win more than half of the 6 games I give us any realistic chance.

End result: Priority Draft Pick: Pick 1 & 2.

Are we this bad: Yes, but the future looks very bright.

[praha 11,238]

I find this perverse and pathetic that supporters are promoting losing...........

Promotion and realization are two very different things. We won't win more than 3 games this year, if that.

[H_T 3,043]

I find this perverse and pathetic that supporters are promoting losing...........

I assume you are referring to the opening of the thread post.

[mo64 5,853]

I assume you are referring to the opening of the thread post.

Correct. It may be realistic as Calabrese points out, but it's pathetic that 2 games into a season, and supporters are already looking at priority picks.

It's also pathetic when posters talk about players who aren't on our list (Butcher and Scully), and players who haven't played a game (Watts and Blease), as being the saviours of our team.

[Mousey 47]

Am i the only one who does not really care at all about getting the priority pick.

Like yes its a good thing to have if we lose less than five games but i sure as [censored] want to win as much games as we can.

I believe a winning culture is way more important than losing for an extra priority pick.

I know i am probably alone in this one.

If we do indeed suck and dont win more than 5 games so be it...great but i am no way cheering for us to win less than 5 games

[iv'a worn smith 1,979]

While I think most of the appraisals above are "realistic", my fear is that the continued erosion of confidence, in such a young list will be contagious and to some extent a self-fulfilling prophecy. While over the last 10 years, a number of clubs have had to bottom out, in order to rise again, they generally had a core group of "stars", which gave those clubs' supporters cause for real hope, looking forward.

I am concerned that while we have a very young list - the youngest in the AFL - and we may very well have star quality which will be in the ascendancy in the next 12 months, there are not enough positive signs at present, to prevent another demoralising battering of the team's collective confidence. This is a delicate and difficult balancing act I know, but if the plan is to play the kids, then we have to start doing more of that, while managing their welfare.

While I was a great fan of Danners, we are obviously now paying the price for him thinking that we could have "pinched" a premiership, by topping up with recycled players, rather than starting a real youth policy 5 years ago.

As an example, I think the true value of Chook and Sylvia have been discounted to a large extent, because they have continually had to play roles designed to plug holes and therefore we have not seen their true potential realised. Also, have you ever noticed that teams who play well and win games have minimal injury lists. Confidence in the mind, can do a lot to protect the body.

While I understand we must, out of necessity, rebuild, we must try to keep the confidence level up, of the players and therefore the supporters. This will be a difficult task and I just hope we are up for it.

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

Mousey: I agree totally.

My post was not about wanting to lose. Far from it. I want to win as many games as possible and would prefer to win and not get Priority Pick. However, what i was trying to point out is that the reality is we are highly, highly unlikely to win more than 4 games. I hope I am wrong. But if I am not its not all bad news.

[Neita3000 37]

What's the point of having a winning culture if you don't have the cattle to do it?

Melbourne needs picks 1 and 2. And the sad thing is we probably won't have to try very hard to get them.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

It's also pathetic when posters talk about players who aren't on our list (Butcher and Scully), and players who haven't played a game (Watts and Blease), as being the saviours of our team.

Why cant they talk of Watts and Blease?? They are on our list.

I think its worse when there are supporters who dont realise that it those young players are critical to our future fortunes not many of the C graders that we currently have that are not up to standard.

[Mousey 47]

Mousey: I agree totally.

My post was not about wanting to lose. Far from it. I want to win as many games as possible and would prefer to win and not get Priority Pick. However, what i was trying to point out is that the reality is we are highly, highly unlikely to win more than 4 games. I hope I am wrong. But if I am not its not all bad news.

Yeah mate i agree.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

I am concerned that while we have a very young list - the youngest in the AFL - and we may very well have star quality which will be in the ascendancy in the next 12 months, there are not enough positive signs at present, to prevent another demoralising battering of the team's collective confidence. This is a delicate and difficult balancing act I know, but if the plan is to play the kids, then we have to start doing more of that, while managing their welfare.

.......

While I understand we must, out of necessity, rebuild, we must try to keep the confidence level up, of the players and therefore the supporters. This will be a difficult task and I just hope we are up for it.

Given the state of things and our young list, MFC cant help but play many of the kids. However, the current administration has employed two development coaches which I think is a great move.

Supporters, players and footy dept need to stick fast in hard times.

[45HG 1,539]

The reality is we probably couldn't win 5 games at the moment if we tried.

Winning culture...7 years of "winning culture" at Carlton seems to be holding them back at the moment. '02-'06 at the Hawks didn't really hold them back either.

[H_T 3,043]

Correct. It may be realistic as Calabrese points out, but it's pathetic that 2 games into a season, and supporters are already looking at priority picks.

It's also pathetic when posters talk about players who aren't on our list (Butcher and Scully), and players who haven't played a game (Watts and Blease), as being the saviours of our team.

That's what forums are for. Some posters can try and predict what might happen 'if' we don't win the required amount of wins. Nothing pathetic in that regard.

Am i the only one who does not really care at all about getting the priority pick.

Like yes its a good thing to have if we lose less than five games but i sure as [censored] want to win as much games as we can.

I believe a winning culture is way more important than losing for an extra priority pick.

I know i am probably alone in this one.

If we do indeed suck and dont win more than 5 games so be it...great but i am no way cheering for us to win less than 5 games

I sing to the same tune. Not everyone on this thread cares about getting the priority pick. Like you say, "yes it's a good thing to have if we lose less than five games."

Just so you know. You're not the only one on this one.

I would have thought that no-one really wants to see their team lose week in week out.

[mo64 5,853]

Why cant they talk of Watts and Blease?? They are on our list.

I think its worse when there are supporters who dont realise that it those young players are critical to our future fortunes not many of the C graders that we currently have that are not up to standard.

You really are clueless. How many of your so called C graders were 1st round draft picks like Watts and Blease?

Until a player has played senior football, you can't say what impact they will have at AFL level.

[iv'a worn smith 1,979]

You really are clueless. How many of your so called C graders were 1st round draft picks like Watts and Blease?

Until a player has played senior football, you can't say what impact they will have at AFL level.

While I have crossed swords in the past with RR, I can attest to the fact that he is definitely not "clueless"

This is a bloody forum for goodness sake and of course opinions will differ. That is what it is about. Let's leave the invective out of the debate. I, for one, enjoy the debate on our future and when I feel a little discouraged by on field performances, I like to read other's positive outlook, from their perspective.

Please feel free to disagree, but attack the argument, not the person.

Cheers

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

You really are clueless. How many of your so called C graders were 1st round draft picks like Watts and Blease?

Until a player has played senior football, you can't say what impact they will have at AFL level.

There is nothing wrong with supporters having hope for the future. And there is nothing wrong with supporters having expectations that a 1st round pick and more so a No 1 pick will be a top or at least a good footballer. And if Watts and Blease do not fulfil those expectations, then they are and eveyone connected with the Club have a good right to be asking questions why not.

And a further education for you Mo. Even if a player has played senior football its impossible to say what AFL impact they will have in future years. Many of the 1st and 2nd year players at MFC have shown nothing more than potential and its uncertain where they will end. Even the best players take some years to really demonstrate what they can do in the AFL.

But at least the supporters you deride have hope for the future. It seems alot more than what you have sourpuss.

[Jarka 767]

Correct. It may be realistic as Calabrese points out, but it's pathetic that 2 games into a season, and supporters are already looking at priority picks.

It's also pathetic when posters talk about players who aren't on our list (Butcher and Scully), and players who haven't played a game (Watts and Blease), as being the saviours of our team.

You're allowed your opinion, good for you.

The facts are that the team that has graced the MCG over the last half dozen years has not come even close to winning a premiership, we need to continue to turn the list over and adding two top three picks from a strong draft will help our plight. This year is a free hit, everyone expects us to finish bottom, everyone expects us to get a PP. We won't lose any more ground if we have another poor year (or good in terms of player development, which is how I see it).

We have a great opportunity to build for the future and I don't want to see the club follow the steps of Richmond.

Regardless, even if we tried all season and played with our strongest team I don't think we could win more than 4 games, we have too many holes in our list.