Melbourne vs. Essendon

[Jerry Lundergard 420]

I must admit i am quite surprised and impressed by essendons resurgence of late, and good on Matthew Knights for sticking it up all he detractors after the beltings they were copping earlier in the season.

However, i beleive we are in a better position than the Bombers in terms of a rebuild, simply because we are developing a new spine, whilst half of Essendons spine are still carrying a their young team, and will most likely be gone in 2 years time.

Look at last night for example, 9 goals between Lloyd and Lucas, while Fletcher still holds down a key defensive post. Now i know Bombers supporters will throw names at me like Nash and Ryder and say these players will be ready to go when the others leave, but they won't have had the two or three years of experience actually being the main man in the gun in a KP role like some of our guys would have. And as they win more games, they ate less llikely to be in position to draft the best new talent.

[gOLLy 401]

Good call.

[warren dean 193]

I must admit i am quite surprised and impressed by essendons resurgence of late, and good on Matthew Knights for sticking it up all he detractors after the beltings they were copping earlier in the season.

However, i beleive we are in a better position than the Bombers in terms of a rebuild, simply because we are developing a new spine, whilst half of Essendons spine are still carrying a their young team, and will most likely be gone in 2 years time.

Look at last night for example, 9 goals between Lloyd and Lucas, while Fletcher still holds down a key defensive post. Now i know Bombers supporters will throw names at me like Nash and Ryder and say these players will be ready to go when the others leave, but they won't have had the two or three years of experience actually being the main man in the gun in a KP role like some of our guys would have. And as they win more games, they ate less llikely to be in position to draft the best new talent.

Don't forget Gumbleton was a no 2 pick (taken after Gibbs). That young fellow can really play and will be an excellent KPP if injuries don't destroy him. He has had a shocking run so far but if he gets himself right he will be an excellent CHF/CHB. I think Ryder has proven to be developing nicely, and he has certainly had some major challenges thrown his way and their mid-field looks like it is coming along. They will lose Lucas, Lloyd and Fletcher over the next couple of seasons for sure, but I would say they are planning to replace them now. Their ruck strength looks pretty good to me so I think they are building nicely. I'd say there is still a bit of guesswork surrounding both teams future spines but I don't see us any more advanced than Essendon. Like you, I too am impressed with the work of Knights and his coaching panel re the rapid improvement in some of their players.

[Adzman 2,154]

Our list is as raw as any, and we have a raw spine which will no doubt put us ahead of the dons in the rebuilding stakes.

Both have recently lost long stadning leaders, so whoever can raise a strong leadership group first will be the team that charges to the finals first. Given that the dees have a young core, and the dons are still looking to the likes of lucas, lloyd for leadership, you would have to say the dees are in a better spot.The upcimg draft is said to be deep, if we can land a few top prospects, we will be looking great for a future assault on the flag.

Marric and Grimes have yet to lace up their boots yet, it is nice having a few aces up our sleeves.

[Yencks 8]

add cheney and mcnamara into the mix over the next five years

[Eastie Boyz 0]

Ryder will have had 2 or 3 years experience at playing on the big guns at CHB, whilst Neagle and Gumbleton are learning off 2 of the best key forwards over the last 10 years. Neagle already looks comfortable at AFL and although I have my doubts on Gumbleton at this stage (mainly because he's barely played) all the guys at Essendon reckon he's a freakshow. Full back is definitely a worry so they need to get one in the next 2 years or they're F***ed.

Melbourne's backline looks alright with a stack of up and comers but who's the emerging gun forward? Sylvia? Would get towelled up by someone like Scarlett and is better suited to a McPhee-type 3rd floating tall option. Newton? Took mark of the year but hasn't fired a shot since. Zomer? Obviously wasn't rated that highly even though he lead Ranges goal kicking last year and imo is better suited in the ruck or down back. PJ? Has spent plenty of time up forward during his career, and like Zomer, is better suited as a ruckman or even defender.

It's all well and good to stop goals, but you need to kick them as well. (Although I'd prefer a good backline over a good forward line for the simple reason of how WC won a flag)

[Doggo 32]

Their ruck strength looks pretty good to me so I think they are building nicely.

I think their ruck stock is probably overrated, if anyone actually rates it. Hille is an excellent player around the ground, dangerous near goals and has shown a lot of improvement in recent weeks in his ruck work. But he's something like 27-28 now, and will probably be finishing up his career by the time they make their next premiership assault. And they're in trouble if he goes down.

Laycock, from what i've seen of him, and also according to my Bomber supporter mate, is not much chop at all, and is playing on the reputation of one good anzac day game back early in his career. Definitely no better than PJ, probably equal to Jamar, which is no compliment.

Bellchambers is young and raw, played a game or two so far in his 1st year, but is being kept out of the team by Laycock, who would probably be delisted/traded at years end, which indicates he's still a fair way off from playing seniors regularly. Ryder, who was originally drafted as a ruckman, is developing nicely as a key defender. Other than the above players mentioned, i dont think they have anyone else.

We've got a better ruck division than them, even with doughnuts Jamar and a White decline. Drafting a ruckman to take over from Hille will be one of their great concerns going forward you'd think, as like Jamar at Melbourne, Laycock has shown himself too limited to make an impact at AFL level.

[ickey_11 145]

We've got a better ruck division than them, even with doughnuts Jamar and a White decline. Drafting a ruckman to take over from Hille will be one of their great concerns going forward you'd think, as like Jamar at Melbourne, Laycock has shown himself too limited to make an impact at AFL level.

Can I smoke some of that stuff too? At this stage Laycock and Hill are better than Jamar and PJ.

I think that Essendon's team now is a little one dimensional, generally their kids all seem light and quick. Also without Lloyd and Lucas, and the on going injuries to Johns they are going to struggle to kick goals in years to come and thus like Melbourne they will need to develop or draft or trade. Essendon are also very suspect down back too. I am not sure if the management of the EFC will give their current coach the time to re-build as they are going to go backwards after the older guys leave over the next few seasons. But the false dawn of this week is going to delude their supporters into thinking that they will be a great side next year, I can already hear them talking about how they are going to get GF seats.

[godees 861]

Spine spine spine...essendon's biggest problem is not there. Their midfield looks very average to me. Their current spine is flattering the performance of their midfeld. We definitely have them covered there as well as in defence into the future.

Not worried about essendon at all.

[Beamer 1]

Essendon are slow through the middle with fast youngsters occupying the flanks. Which isnt a good thing, IMO.

In 2-4 years, we will be much stronger than them and will play a much faster brand of football (Like the Bulldogs of today). We have drafted to position and with the addition of (hopefully) Watts, we will have a nice balanced squad.

I hope Sylvia really steps up in 2009. Its really make or break for him.

[H_T 3,043]

Can I smoke some of that stuff too? At this stage Laycock and Hill are better than Jamar and PJ.

I think that Essendon's team now is a little one dimensional, generally their kids all seem light and quick. Also without Lloyd and Lucas, and the on going injuries to Johns they are going to struggle to kick goals in years to come and thus like Melbourne they will need to develop or draft or trade. Essendon are also very suspect down back too. I am not sure if the management of the EFC will give their current coach the time to re-build as they are going to go backwards after the older guys leave over the next few seasons. But the false dawn of this week is going to delude their supporters into thinking that they will be a great side next year, I can already hear them talking about how they are going to get GF seats.

What the Bombers have got is genuine pace in the midfield. And its been clicking of late. Brisbane can't go with them. They will make a tilt at the finals injuries the only way to stop them. PJ is better than Laycock. Not sure what stuff your on. ALthough Hille is the best of the lot by far.

We need better development of our players. McNamara and Grimes are really good prospects. Maric should be ok too. Dees need to secure a top 3 pick this year. I think we will get another win before the year is out and it will be against either the Kangaroos or West Coast. Maybe both.

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,658]

we are MILES ahead of Essendon!

Theya re stuck in that weird bracket of having young kids, mixed with too many older average players!

Our average games played per player is the best in the comp..

They have a couple of good kids, but none even close to ours, they have far too amny similiar types, I really cant see them getting far with their list..

Average 27+ players like Peverill, Michael, Fletcher, Mcphee, Johnson, Ramanauskas..

mixed with average 23-25 yr olds like:

Stanton, Johns, Dyson, Watson, Laycock, Winderlich..

Even their best kids dont look good enough for me:

Daniher, Lonergan, Jetta, Gumbleton (injurie prone) etc..

Ryder, Reimers, Davey, Neagle looks ok.. but thats about all id want!

We have:

Wonaemirri, Garland, Jones, Mclean, Morton, petterd, Bate, Bartram, Valenti, Martin, Buckley, Warnock, Grimes, Maric, Dunn, Frawley and Sylvia all of whom Id take ahead of those bombers kids, except the few I mentioned..

Our 24-27 yr olds far better also!

Moloney, Rivers, C Johnson, P Johnson, Davey, Green, Bruce, Miller..

Then, they have alot more older Players, Lucas, Lloyd, Michael, Fletcher, Johnson, Peverill..

They have ALOT of work to do..

AS you can see, we are Much better placed atm!

[Lord Travis 10,728]

Essendon will likely draft Hurley this year.

They'll have Hurley FB, Ryder CHB, Gumbleton CHF, Neagle FF, for the next 10 years barring injury etc

We will likely have Warnock FB, Garland CHB, Miller/Bate CHF, Watts FF

It's pretty even for the spine there IMO. We have a far better midfield crop coming through currently, but you never know. I think we're ahead too, but the Dons are performing better than I thought they would and their gameplan could certainly become a successful one in the future as their players get a few pre-seasons and years experience under their belts. I think in 4-5 years time we'll both be top sides playing vastly different footy.

[Doggo 32]

Can I smoke some of that stuff too? At this stage Laycock and Hill are better than Jamar and PJ.

Read my post again.

White would be our equivalent to Hille - Hille is better and is in his prime, White is past it but still capable of playing as well as Hille on his day. They play a very simliar game, but Hille gets the points as he's younger and more capable up forward. Has 2-3 years left, but won't be there at their next flag.

Hille > White - But only just. White is finished, but was heaps better in his prime, which Hille is at now.

Jamar to Laycock - Both not much good, depth at best. Break even. Unlikely either will be there when they challenge again.

PJ to Ryder - PJ is a better ruckman, Ryder better KPP. Cancel each other out. Cant even compare the two really. Break even. Likely both will be filling different roles throughout their careers.

Spencer to Bellchambers - Too early to call for either, so automatic break even.

If we consider White is our 'best ruckman' and is only not getting a game for development's sake, and Jamar and PJ our #2 and #3 respectively, PJ and Jamar are better than Laycock and Bellchambers at this stage (their #2 and #3), so if Essendon were to lose Hille and have to play play without their #1 man (effectively what DB is doing by dropping White), our ruck duo would be far better than theirs.... See what i mean?

BTW... How did u know i smoked? lol

[Ash35 425]

There are some interesting responses here.

I love how by just naming 10 or 12 young blokes on Melbournes list makes them all good players with a massive future [Nudge, I'm looking at you].

The original post talked mainly key position players. I don't have a problem with Essendons key position stocks. Perhaps we are a bit skinny down back with only Ryder as a young developing tall backman. Obviously Mal Michael and Fletcher won't be around forever, but I'm hoping we can draft Hurley as a future full back. Key forwards are under control, with Neagle showing great signs, Gumbleton with potential if he ever gets an even break with injuries and Darcy Daniher in his first year. Of course we are going to play Lloyd and Lucas at the moment, but we have back up developing when they move on.

Yes Warnock and Garland are coming on this season, and Martin is getting a go, but Rivers seems to be cursed. I think Garland will become a good player, but the jury is still out on Warnock, Frawley and Martin. Melbournes young key forwards are Bate [playing CHF atm] and Newton and ?????. Hmmmm.....I'm sure Watts will help, but with Neitz retiring this season and Robertson struggling before his injury, can't say Melbournes key forwards are the most potent going around.

At the start of the season, I saw Melbourne and Essendon in similar positions. Both clubs had replaced long term coaches which should bring new ideas to the table. Both clubs have alot of youngsters on their lists. Bothb clubs are light on for depth, so injuries cause chaos. Both teams have struggled with injuries and won't play finals in 2008.

I think both clubs have some future. Looks like everyone here thinks the Dees are moving in the right direction, which is great, and I'm quietly confident the Essendons youngsters have some ability as well.

On exposed form, Morton, Jones, Garland, Wonaemirri & Petterd are players to get excited about, with Grimes and Maric yet to play, while I like the looks of Myers, Neagle, Jetta, Houli, Ryder, Davey and Gumbleton for the Bombers.

Difficult to say who has a better future. It's how these guys develop really. Melbourne will obviously pick up another top 2 draft pick later in the season, which will help their playing stocks, and if Essendon can stop winning some games and ensure we also get a top 6 draft choice, both clubs will be well placed going forward.

[Jarka 767]

On exposed form, Morton, Jones, Garland, Wonaemirri & Petterd are players to get excited about, with Grimes and Maric yet to play, while I like the looks of Myers, Neagle, Jetta, Houli, Ryder, Davey and Gumbleton for the Bombers.

Reimers looks the goods, did you just forget him?

Melbourne are clearly down the bottom of the pack in terms of rebuilding. We're having to rebuild our defense, forward, midfield and ruck stocks all at the same time and the only reason why we won't finish last by a long way is because a couple of clubs out west want the first pick.

Edit - You're also correct about our forward issues

[jacey 333]

On exposed form, Morton, Jones, Garland, Wonaemirri & Petterd are players to get excited about, with Grimes and Maric yet to play, while I like the looks of Myers, Neagle, Jetta, Houli, Ryder, Davey and Gumbleton for the Bombers.

The problem i see with Essendon is they have too many like players. Davey, Jetta, Lovett, Dempsey, Winderlich, Dyson, Houli.

They need a bit of grunt in the middle and Sam Lonergan is the only one i see putting his hand up.

KPP wise, both teams are probably missing one more player.

Essendon have something to build on but on Demonland, MFC will be better.

[Ash35 425]

Reimers looks the goods, did you just forget him?

I'm not convinced yet. Obviously I hope he makes the grade, but I'd like to see a bit more from him before I get carried away.

Jacey, I think the reason we have so many of those speedy types is because it suits the game plan Knights is trying to implement. As well as Lonergan, Watson, Welsh, McVeigh and Stanton give us a bit of "grunt", but I agree, our midfield needs work.

[godees 861]

Ash you forgot Miller in our tall forward stocks. He just turned 25 so has a lot left in him. Which makes Miller, Newton, Bate and ideally Watts. If we draft Watts I think we will be alright up forward.

My ideal scenario post-season would be getting Watts, Warnock and a classy speedy midfielder with our second pick. If that eventuates we will be pretty well covered across the board with quality youngsters (or at the very least highly rated with plenty of potential).

[Guest redandbluethruandthru]

Kyle Reimers seems to me to be the best of all their young kids. He will be a gun player s he gets more games under his belt.

I don't rate Ryder much at all. Takes the occassional grab but plays much too loose. Jetta is a 50/50 bet at best.

[Ash35 425]

Kyle Reimers seems to me to be the best of all their young kids. He will be a gun player s he gets more games under his belt.

I don't rate Ryder much at all. Takes the occassional grab but plays much too loose. Jetta is a 50/50 bet at best.

That's why footy is so great, different opinions and such.

I hope Reimers becomes a "gun", but my gut feeling is that he wont. Obviously I hope I am wrong.

Ryder has a massive amount of natural ability and is very athletic. Has only played key back since pre-season 2007, but shows improvement each week. His best game was in round 2 when Geelong mauled us by 90 odd points, yet Ryder beat Mooney hands down.

I like the way Jetta is coming along. Played a great game against Freo in Perth before the break, where he directly set up 5 or 6 goals, then broke the game open on Saturday night with 3 goals of his own.

godees, I did forget Miller. Defiantely adds to your structure up forward even though he isn't a massive goal kicker.

[Eastie Boyz 0]

The problem i see with Essendon is they have too many like players. Davey, Jetta, Lovett, Dempsey, Winderlich, Dyson, Houli.

They need a bit of grunt in the middle and Sam Lonergan is the only one i see putting his hand up.

KPP wise, both teams are probably missing one more player.

Essendon have something to build on but on Demonland, MFC will be better.

Welsh is doing alright atm, and Hocking will come into the side by years end.

We're kind of in a similar position to what the doggies were earlier this century - a couple of wise old heads leading a bunch of skinny runners into a new era.

[titan_uranus 25,000]

I've seen quite a bit of Essendon this year and I have to say I think their success is wholly dependent on their ability to find replacements for Lloyd, Lucas, Fletcher and Michael. 4 key position players aren't easy to find. Neagle might be one, Ryder another, but they still need another forward and another defender. Having said that, they have a lot of good young players: Houli, Nash, Lovett, Jetta (I think will get there), Davey, Gumbleton (if he ever gets on the park), Neagle (questionable), Ryder (maybe), Reimers (best of the lot), Monfries (I thought not until the last few weeks), Myers, Pears, Winderlich, Dempsey. At the moment I would say that Essendon has a brighter short-term future than Melbourne, but in the long run, unless they pull some KPP gems out of the draft, Melbourne's youth may be better.

[Eastie Boyz 0]

Don't rate Monfries at all. Ryder will just about be the best player by the time Lloyd, Fletch and Lucas go.

There's a few other names that you guys probably haven't heard of that are likely to make it too

[titan_uranus 25,000]

Don't rate Monfries at all. Ryder will just about be the best player by the time Lloyd, Fletch and Lucas go.

There's a few other names that you guys probably haven't heard of that are likely to make it too

Yeah, to name one I've seen Heath Hocking a bit and he looks a likely type.