2015 the hottest year on record

[Jara 1,149]

On 19 August 2017 at 9:34 AM, Wrecker45 said:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001:

Acute water shortage conditions combined with thermal stress should adversely affect wheat and, more severely, rice productivity in India even under the positive effects of elevated CO2 in the future.

Times of India, 17 August 2017:

India’s foodgrain production for the 2016-17 crop year is estimated at record 275.68 million tonnes ... which is over 4% higher than the previous record production achieved in the country during 2013-14.

The writing in that first article is painfully small, difficult to read thoroughly. Does it say when the water shortages will come in? (Bearing in mind, of course, that in 2001 we ourselves had 8 years of terrible drought ahead of us, leading to our worst ever bushfire and the deaths of 173 of our fellow citizens) 

[Wrecker45 3,378]

BOM after getting caught out for not recording accurately says the 2 weather stations it got caught out on are the only 2 wrong out of 700 odd. What are the odds?

 

http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/09/vindicated-bureau-acknowledges-limits-set-cold-temperatures-can-recorded/

 

[Jara 1,149]

22 hours ago, Wrecker45 said:

BOM after getting caught out for not recording accurately says the 2 weather stations it got caught out on are the only 2 wrong out of 700 odd. What are the odds?

 

http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/09/vindicated-bureau-acknowledges-limits-set-cold-temperatures-can-recorded/

 

Oh god, not the bloody entomologist again. I wish you'd start quoting qualified climate scientists and not IPA stooges. 

[Earl Hood 5,789]

Hottest Australian winter on record! Climate change is now happening, don't worry about the models, we are experiencing it now.  Only the deluded are still questioning the data in the predictive models to try to deny it.

Forget the models, look out your window at what is happening on the ground. 

[daisycutter 28,494]

48 minutes ago, Earl Hood said:

Hottest Australian winter on record!

 

 

could have fooled me, earl. not in burwood

[Macca 16,173]

16 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

could have fooled me, earl. not in burwood

The last 2 winters have been utterly freezing out in my neck of the woods - The Deep East.  I'm thinking of moving to the globally warmed parts of Oz. 

But hasn't it always been hot in QLD?

[Wrecker45 3,378]

On 18/09/2017 at 9:46 PM, daisycutter said:

could have fooled me, earl. not in burwood

It is amazing how poor the BMO has become. People aren't stupid. You freeze through a cold winter and get told at the end it is the hottest on record. I have had the same car for 5 years and the ice on the road warning light has never come on a frequently as it did this winter.

[Wrecker45 3,378]

BOM scandals

• BOM Scandal: One second records in Australia — how “noise” creates history and a warming trend
• Another BOM scandal: Australian climate data is being destroyed as routine practice
• BOM scandal: “smart cards” filter out coldest temperatures. Full audit needed ASAP!
• BOM scandal heats up: Kininmonth, Watts, Nova quoted in The Australian “We audit banks, why not BOM?”

• Scandal: Australian Bureau of Meteorology caught erasing cold temperatures
• On Sunday, Goulburn got colder than the BOM thought was possible (and a raw data record was “adjusted”).
• Two-thirds of Australias warming due to “adjustments” — according to 84 historic stations
• The mysterious BOM disinterest in hot historic Australian Stevenson screen temperatures
• The lost climate knowledge of Deacon 1952: hot dry summers from 1880-1910
•  1953 Headline: Melbourne’s weather is changing! Summers getting colder and wetter
• The mysterious lost hot Sunday in Bourke, did it really happen?
• Wow, look at those BOM adjustments – trends up by two degrees C!
• Australian BOM “neutral” adjustments increase minima trends up 50%
• Was the Hottest Day Ever in Australia not in a desert, but in far south Albany?!
• Hottest summer record in Australia? Not so, says UAH satellite data
• Mystery black-box method used to make *all new* Australian “hottest” ever records
• BOMs new data set, ACORN, so bad it should be withdrawn (954 min temps larger than the max!)
• Threat of ANAO Audit means Australia’s BOM throws out temperature set, starts again, gets same results
• Australian Temperatures in cities adjusted up by 70%!?

[Jara 1,149]

That's one heck of a load of Jo Nova you've posted there. Oh well, at least it's a break from your IPA entomologist. 

[Earl Hood 5,789]

On 20 September 2017 at 10:18 PM, Wrecker45 said:

BOM scandals

• BOM Scandal: One second records in Australia — how “noise” creates history and a warming trend
• Another BOM scandal: Australian climate data is being destroyed as routine practice
• BOM scandal: “smart cards” filter out coldest temperatures. Full audit needed ASAP!
• BOM scandal heats up: Kininmonth, Watts, Nova quoted in The Australian “We audit banks, why not BOM?”

• Scandal: Australian Bureau of Meteorology caught erasing cold temperatures
• On Sunday, Goulburn got colder than the BOM thought was possible (and a raw data record was “adjusted”).
• Two-thirds of Australias warming due to “adjustments” — according to 84 historic stations
• The mysterious BOM disinterest in hot historic Australian Stevenson screen temperatures
• The lost climate knowledge of Deacon 1952: hot dry summers from 1880-1910
•  1953 Headline: Melbourne’s weather is changing! Summers getting colder and wetter
• The mysterious lost hot Sunday in Bourke, did it really happen?
• Wow, look at those BOM adjustments – trends up by two degrees C!
• Australian BOM “neutral” adjustments increase minima trends up 50%
• Was the Hottest Day Ever in Australia not in a desert, but in far south Albany?!
• Hottest summer record in Australia? Not so, says UAH satellite data
• Mystery black-box method used to make *all new* Australian “hottest” ever records
• BOMs new data set, ACORN, so bad it should be withdrawn (954 min temps larger than the max!)
• Threat of ANAO Audit means Australia’s BOM throws out temperature set, starts again, gets same results
• Australian Temperatures in cities adjusted up by 70%!?

I would usually cut you some slack Wrecker and your gross stupidity on climate change issues, but unfortunately this issue is too important. Your beliefs are stupid, illogical and dangerous. 

First You deny there is a problem, deny the science, the basic physics of CO2 in the atmosphere then You question the predictive models as getting it wrong, then as the data pours in that is validating the modelpredictions, You call into question the data, it is now being doctored by the national Bureau of  Met. For what possible reason only your contorted, conspiratorial mind can explain. 

Meanwhile if you ever stick your head out the window and observe the weather you might notice we are about to break another raft of temperature records this weekend up north in NSW but of course that is just the norm when measured over the past million years.

This is Climate Change in action as we communicate! 

 

[daisycutter 28,494]

37 minutes ago, Earl Hood said:

I would usually cut you some slack Wrecker and your gross stupidity on climate change issues, but unfortunately this issue is too important. Your beliefs are stupid, illogical and dangerous. 

First You deny there is a problem, deny the science, the basic physics of CO2 in the atmosphere then You question the predictive models as getting it wrong, then as the data pours in that is validating the modelpredictions, You call into question the data, it is now being doctored by the national Bureau of  Met. For what possible reason only your contorted, conspiratorial mind can explain. 

Meanwhile if you ever stick your head out the window and observe the weather you might notice we are about to break another raft of temperature records this weekend up north in NSW but of course that is just the norm when measured over the past million years.

This is Climate Change in action as we communicate! 

 

Global warming may be occurring more slowly than previously thought, study suggests

Previous climate models may have been 'on the hot side'

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-paris-climate-agreement-nature-geoscience-myles-allen-michael-grubb-a7954496.html

[Biffen 12,323]

Of greater concern to me is male pattern baldness.I've lobbied international leaders to contribute  to a fund that i will administer, in order to address this serious issue.

I estimate billions will be needed ,and i will not rest until this problem is acknowledged globally.

[hardtack 10,126]

On 9/22/2017 at 10:01 PM, daisycutter said:

Global warming may be occurring more slowly than previously thought, study suggests

Previous climate models may have been 'on the hot side'

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-paris-climate-agreement-nature-geoscience-myles-allen-michael-grubb-a7954496.html

Isn't the keyword in that headline "occurring"?  Perhaps we should be grateful that the predictions/models have been wrong (assuming that is definitely the case) and that we have more time available to us to reduce the effects... it certainly doesn't mean we should abandon the treaties and not take preventative measures.

[Earl Hood 5,789]

11 hours ago, Biffen said:

Of greater concern to me is male pattern baldness.I've lobbied international leaders to contribute  to a fund that i will administer, in order to address this serious issue.

I estimate billions will be needed ,and i will not rest until this problem is acknowledged globally.

Biff I am bald, it is not a problem, at least not one that needs direct medical attention. Instead I drive a Corvette to make up for it. 

[Earl Hood 5,789]

6 hours ago, hardtack said:

Isn't the keyword in that headline "occurring"?  Perhaps we should be grateful that the predictions/models have been wrong (assuming that is definitely the case) and that we have more time available to us to reduce the effects... it certainly doesn't mean we should abandon the treaties and not take preventative measures.

Hardtrack I agree with your sentiments but I would point out that the models aren't WRONG rather they are predictive and have a statistical margin of error, as all scientific models will have. Future data yet to be measured could make the models move back toward their former predictions, who knows, but the forces involved and the trends affecting the climate are clear, we are just debating the time to failure. 

Models are models, not historical data. You can only be 100% accurate when analysing historic data, that is looking backwards. I hope the scientific paper is true as it buys us some time but the language used by the researchers is very measured so as not to promote complacency or provide any comfit for Deniers, as the dire predictions of global warming have not changed if we exceed 1.5 C. 

[hardtack 10,126]

2 hours ago, Earl Hood said:

Hardtrack I agree with your sentiments but I would point out that the models aren't WRONG rather they are predictive and have a statistical margin of error, as all scientific models will have. Future data yet to be measured could make the models move back toward their former predictions, who knows, but the forces involved and the trends affecting the climate are clear, we are just debating the time to failure. 

Models are models, not historical data. You can only be 100% accurate when analysing historic data, that is looking backwards. I hope the scientific paper is true as it buys us some time but the language used by the researchers is very measured so as not to promote complacency or provide any comfit for Deniers, as the dire predictions of global warming have not changed if we exceed 1.5 C. 

EH... that's precisely why I said "assuming that is definitely the case". The article still maintains that climate change is a real thing and is happening, so we should be working towards reducing/eliminating its impact regardless of how much time we do or don't have.

[Jara 1,149]

Dunno if it's worth posting here, given that there's only about half a dozen of us who bother reading or posting, but - that said - to the climate change deniers among us - your spiritual leader, your Abbott, has gone seriously psycho. 

 

Weirdest part of his latest babble - global warming is good for us. Good for us! What a jerk. He should be the one in the High Court defending his citizenship - I presume the moron thinks he's a friggin Pom. Confirms my belief that his supposed volunteering as a fire fighter is nothing more than a photo op. 

 

Anyway, Tony - a word of advice. We're in Australia, you knobby-skulled weirdo. Hot is not good. Hot kills people, including children I knew. Hot destroys crops and economies. Hot is bad bad bad. Hot is a terrorist. And so are you.     

 

You global warming deniers, ditch the Abbot. He has been driven out of his mind by relevance deprivation. He is too weird, even for you. If you're looking for a leader, I'd suggest Malcolm Roberts - he'll be looking for a new gig pretty soon. 

 

 

[dieter 3,325]

1 hour ago, Jara said:

If you're looking for a leader, I'd suggest Malcolm Roberts - he'll be looking for a new gig pretty soon.

Love it. He'd suit the National/Liberal camp of fringe lunatics.

[Wrecker45 3,378]

On 22/09/2017 at 9:22 PM, Earl Hood said:

I would usually cut you some slack Wrecker and your gross stupidity on climate change issues, but unfortunately this issue is too important. Your beliefs are stupid, illogical and dangerous. 

First You deny there is a problem, deny the science, the basic physics of CO2 in the atmosphere then You question the predictive models as getting it wrong, then as the data pours in that is validating the modelpredictions, You call into question the data, it is now being doctored by the national Bureau of  Met. For what possible reason only your contorted, conspiratorial mind can explain. 

Meanwhile if you ever stick your head out the window and observe the weather you might notice we are about to break another raft of temperature records this weekend up north in NSW but of course that is just the norm when measured over the past million years.

This is Climate Change in action as we communicate! 

 

EH - I have never denied the basic physics of Co2 having a heating impact in a controlled environment with no other factors.

On the data being doctored I have given ample examples in this thread where the BOM has been overs. Show me a few examples where they have been caught out being unders.

If I stick me head out and observe the weather I might notice we are about to break another raft of records.

I can only laugh at the bold above quoting your ignorance... I thought the argument was climate not weather. It is also funny it is about to happen like every other failed prediction.

 

 

[Jara 1,149]

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If I stick me head out and observe the weather I might notice we are about to break another raft of records.

 

Found this a bit hard to follow. What do you mean? 

[Wrecker45 3,378]

19 hours ago, Jara said:

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If I stick me head out and observe the weather I might notice we are about to break another raft of records.

 

Found this a bit hard to follow. What do you mean? 

I was quoting EH.

[Wrecker45 3,378]

On 21/09/2017 at 10:59 PM, Jara said:

That's one heck of a load of Jo Nova you've posted there. Oh well, at least it's a break from your IPA entomologist. 

Silly me, I should know not to use fully referenced examples of BOM fraud from a Scientists blog.

[Little Goffy 12,560]

9 hours ago, Wrecker45 said:

Silly me, I should know not to use fully referenced examples of BOM fraud from a Scientists blog.

https://www.weekendnotes.com/cherry-farms-victoria/

 

[Earl Hood 5,789]

3 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

https://www.weekendnotes.com/cherry-farms-victoria/

 

Yes LG very timely post. You won't get any arguments from me on that!! 

[Earl Hood 5,789]

On 19 October 2017 at 11:01 AM, Wrecker45 said:

EH - I have never denied the basic physics of Co2 having a heating impact in a controlled environment with no other factors.

On the data being doctored I have given ample examples in this thread where the BOM has been overs. Show me a few examples where they have been caught out being unders.

If I stick me head out and observe the weather I might notice we are about to break another raft of records.

I can only laugh at the bold above quoting your ignorance... I thought the argument was climate not weather. It is also funny it is about to happen like every other failed prediction.

 

 

Wrecker climate is about long term averages for temperature, rainfall, wind etc. So we already have a 1C rise in global average temperatures above the recordable historic average. Weather is what you experience, locally and now. I am trying to point out that climate change is not some abstract theory that may occur in the future, it is happening now and people are being affected in the weather they are experiencing now. The raft of heat records I referred to back in September aren't about to happen, they occurred! They are on the record even though I am sure you will dispute the BoM data and that the people in northern NSW and western Queensland were duped into feeling like they were dealing with 40C plus temperatures in September, temperatures that they had never experienced before so early in spring.

It is very much about the weather now, extreme heat and drought are occurring more often. Why don't you go and ask someone in the insurance business about their thoughts on "the weather" and what it is costing them in payouts and their predictions for the future effects of changing climate on their business models. 

They pay out on the bad weather not the climatic averages but they are factoring in that climate change equals more extremes and more damage from sever storms or more intense and frequent fires.