Rigged Drafts

[furious d 464]

I for one am far from pessimistic about the draft concessions granted to the new GC and WS teams. They present us with a massive opportunity IMO, but also increase the cost of not tanking last year. This years draft will be the most important in the clubs history and we MUST get it right, with pick 1&2 we probably couldn't have got it wrong (gun tall and gun mid), but it's too late to worry about that now. After this draft no existing club gets a top 10 pick in 2009, top 15 in 2010, or a top 5 in 2011. This years premier gets pick 26, next years 31, that's normally deep second round.

I think our under 24's are as good as anyone's. Our big problem at the minute is our small number of 25-28 year olds, and the poor form of our veterans. There is very little we can do about this in the short term, which is why the club should focus on 2013. By then the draft concessions should be starting to bite the current clubs, but the new franchises won't have had time to develop their own youngsters. We should be perfectly positioned to strike.

players who turn 18 this year (23 in 2013)

Morton, Maric, McNamara

19 (24)

Cheney, Grimes, Weetra, Spencer*, Zomer*

20 (25)

Jones, Frawley, Bartram, Petterd, Garland, Wonaemirri*

21 (26)

Bate, Dunn, Newton, Bode, Buckley, C. Johnson, Valenti*

22 (27)

McLean, Martin, Meesen

23 (28)

Bell, Sylvia

24 (29)

Rivers, Moloney, P.Johnson, Jamar, Warnock

25 (30)

Davey, Miller

26 (31)

-

27 (32)

Green, Wheatley

28

Carroll

Bruce 29, Whelan 29, Robbo 30, White 31, Yze 31, Holland 31, McDonald 32, Neitz 33

Bailey was hired for his development credentials, this doesn't happen in a preseason, we need to be patient. If you need evidence of how poor our list management has been, we have less players on our list aged 25,26,27 or 28 than there are 30 and overs, disgraceful. We do, however, have 31 blokes 24 and under (including rookies) and potentially 3 top 20 draft picks! this year!

This is why I'm actually enjoying games at the minute, perverse as it sounds. After the first 2 games I started to watch more with an eye to the future and that certainly isn't as bleak as the present. Feel like I'm getting in on the ground floor of what could be a good era for us starting 3-4 years from now. Too long to wait you say? I've been waiting nearly 40 years to see us win a flag and have never even considered us a genuine threat. Even the years we made the big one we were inconsistent. The last thing I want to see is an attempted quick fix. Take your time Bails, but FFS get it right.

[Neita3000 37]

I for one am far from pessimistic about the draft concessions granted to the new GC and WS teams. They present us with a massive opportunity IMO, but also increase the cost of not tanking last year. This years draft will be the most important in the clubs history and we MUST get it right, with pick 1&2 we probably couldn't have got it wrong (gun tall and gun mid), but it's too late to worry about that now. After this draft no existing club gets a top 10 pick in 2009, top 15 in 2010, or a top 5 in 2011. This years premier gets pick 26, next years 31, that's normally deep second round.

I think our under 24's are as good as anyone's. Our big problem at the minute is our small number of 25-28 year olds, and the poor form of our veterans. There is very little we can do about this in the short term, which is why the club should focus on 2013. By then the draft concessions should be starting to bite the current clubs, but the new franchises won't have had time to develop their own youngsters. We should be perfectly positioned to strike.

players who turn 18 this year (23 in 2013)

Morton, Maric, McNamara

19 (24)

Cheney, Grimes, Weetra, Spencer*, Zomer*

20 (25)

Jones, Frawley, Bartram, Petterd, Garland, Wonaemirri*

21 (26)

Bate, Dunn, Newton, Bode, Buckley, C. Johnson, Valenti*

22 (27)

McLean, Martin, Meesen

23 (28)

Bell, Sylvia

24 (29)

Rivers, Moloney, P.Johnson, Jamar, Warnock

25 (30)

Davey, Miller

26 (31)

-

27 (32)

Green, Wheatley

28

Carroll

Bruce 29, Whelan 29, Robbo 30, White 31, Yze 31, Holland 31, McDonald 32, Neitz 33

Bailey was hired for his development credentials, this doesn't happen in a preseason, we need to be patient. If you need evidence of how poor our list management has been, we have less players on our list aged 25,26,27 or 28 than there are 30 and overs, disgraceful. We do, however, have 31 blokes 24 and under (including rookies) and potentially 3 top 20 draft picks! this year!

This is why I'm actually enjoying games at the minute, perverse as it sounds. After the first 2 games I started to watch more with an eye to the future and that certainly isn't as bleak as the present. Feel like I'm getting in on the ground floor of what could be a good era for us starting 3-4 years from now. Too long to wait you say? I've been waiting nearly 40 years to see us win a flag and have never even considered us a genuine threat. Even the years we made the big one we were inconsistent. The last thing I want to see is an attempted quick fix. Take your time Bails, but FFS get it right.

you're right about the state of our list from 25-28, pretty shocking. find it so surprising how craig cameron has such a good reputation as a recruiter. yeah he may be able to pick a clint bartram after pick 50 but he sure as hell can't pick any good ones in the top 10

[Guest The Kick of Destiny]

you're right about the state of our list from 25-28, pretty shocking. find it so surprising how craig cameron has such a good reputation as a recruiter. yeah he may be able to pick a clint bartram after pick 50 but he sure as hell can't pick any good ones in the top 10

How many top 10 picks did CC have?

[Cards13 9,117]

I for one am far from pessimistic about the draft concessions granted to the new GC and WS teams. They present us with a massive opportunity IMO, but also increase the cost of not tanking last year. This years draft will be the most important in the clubs history and we MUST get it right, with pick 1&2 we probably couldn't have got it wrong (gun tall and gun mid), but it's too late to worry about that now. After this draft no existing club gets a top 10 pick in 2009, top 15 in 2010, or a top 5 in 2011. This years premier gets pick 26, next years 31, that's normally deep second round.

I think our under 24's are as good as anyone's. Our big problem at the minute is our small number of 25-28 year olds, and the poor form of our veterans. There is very little we can do about this in the short term, which is why the club should focus on 2013. By then the draft concessions should be starting to bite the current clubs, but the new franchises won't have had time to develop their own youngsters. We should be perfectly positioned to strike.

players who turn 18 this year (23 in 2013)

Morton, Maric, McNamara

19 (24)

Cheney, Grimes, Weetra, Spencer*, Zomer*

20 (25)

Jones, Frawley, Bartram, Petterd, Garland, Wonaemirri*

21 (26)

Bate, Dunn, Newton, Bode, Buckley, C. Johnson, Valenti*

22 (27)

McLean, Martin, Meesen

23 (28)

Bell, Sylvia

24 (29)

Rivers, Moloney, P.Johnson, Jamar, Warnock

25 (30)

Davey, Miller

26 (31)

-

27 (32)

Green, Wheatley

28

Carroll

Bruce 29, Whelan 29, Robbo 30, White 31, Yze 31, Holland 31, McDonald 32, Neitz 33

Bailey was hired for his development credentials, this doesn't happen in a preseason, we need to be patient. If you need evidence of how poor our list management has been, we have less players on our list aged 25,26,27 or 28 than there are 30 and overs, disgraceful. We do, however, have 31 blokes 24 and under (including rookies) and potentially 3 top 20 draft picks! this year!

This is why I'm actually enjoying games at the minute, perverse as it sounds. After the first 2 games I started to watch more with an eye to the future and that certainly isn't as bleak as the present. Feel like I'm getting in on the ground floor of what could be a good era for us starting 3-4 years from now. Too long to wait you say? I've been waiting nearly 40 years to see us win a flag and have never even considered us a genuine threat. Even the years we made the big one we were inconsistent. The last thing I want to see is an attempted quick fix. Take your time Bails, but FFS get it right.

Nice post..

I think if you have looked at cacs drafting you can clearly see he was a mid/late round/ rookie listed gem finder but really battled with the top end of drafts. That aside as to the upcoming drafts i find Richmonds presidents comments interesting:

"I'd have major concerns. What I'd have major concerns on is that … basically it means a five-to-10-year period, certain clubs, because of having no access to drafts, may be down the bottom for an extended period of time for no fault of their own. And that compromises the competition, and that's the last thing we want to see is a compromised competition.

"If you compromise that too much, you get a situation like in the Premier League where only three sides can ever win it. How boring is that competition?"

[Jarka 767]

How many top 10 picks did CC have?

From memory his first draft was 1998 which would make 4 top 10 picks.

2007 Pick 4 - Cale Morton

2003 Pick 3 - Colin Sylvia

2003 Pick 5 - Brock McLean

2001 Pick 9 - Luke Molan

If he had 1997 then you could add TJ to the list.

IMO of those picks 1 was a definite success (McLean), 1 a definite failure (Molan) and 2 undecided.

[sylvinator 96]

players who turn 18 this year (23 in 2013)

Morton, Maric, McNamara

19 (24)

Cheney, Grimes, Weetra, Spencer*, Zomer*

20 (25)

Jones, Frawley, Bartram, Petterd, Garland, Wonaemirri*

21 (26)

Bate, Dunn, Newton, Bode, Buckley, C. Johnson, Valenti*

22 (27)

McLean, Martin, Meesen

23 (28)

Bell, Sylvia

24 (29)

Rivers, Moloney, P.Johnson, Jamar, Warnock

25 (30)

Davey, Miller

26 (31)

-

27 (32)

Green, Wheatley

28

Carroll

Bruce 29, Whelan 29, Robbo 30, White 31, Yze 31, Holland 31, McDonald 32, Neitz 33

when looking at this list, it is clear that our list structure is just terrible.

However, in 2 years time it can be remedied, IF we draft well for the next 2 years.

we have a worrying amount of +29 yr olds, however only White can still be considered a fundamental crucial player.

Over the next 2 years, every one of the 30 yr olds is going to be taken off the list except for possibly Robbo, Bruce and Carrol may survive another 3-4 years.

of the players over 24 years old, Miller, Warnock and Jamar probably won't be on our list in 2 years also due to delisting (or move to Qld in Millers case).

in 2 years time, we are going to have one of the youngest lists in the afl. the only players who will be over 26 will be Green, Bruce and Carrol (and Maybe Robbo and Wheatley)...that is what our list structure needs to look like if we're going to have a proper rebuild to push up the ladder.

One of Green or Bruce should also be traded at years end if we can find someone stupid enough to offer a draft pick between 10-15.

Our drafting over the next 2 years (and the development of our previous 2 years draftees) is going to be absolutely crucial

[deanox 9,927]

you're right about the state of our list from 25-28, pretty shocking. find it so surprising how craig cameron has such a good reputation as a recruiter. yeah he may be able to pick a clint bartram after pick 50 but he sure as hell can't pick any good ones in the top 10

probably indicates how much the draft penalties in 1999 and 2000 hurt us doesnt it? that hole in the list of mature players, at the peak of their games who should be leaders would be filled nicely by 17 year olds drafted in those years who would now be 25-28 years old...

[furious d 464]

Agree with your 2 year forecast Sylvinator, except for Robbo, he'll be gone end of next year. I wouldn't rule Jamar out entirely after last week either but he needs to back it up several more times, and soon. But most likely he'll be gone. I'd add C.J as another likely to go within 2 years (prob this year).

That's 11 players in 2 years. I think we'd be looking at around 8 delistings this year (maybe more, debends on the size of Bailey's broom) and less, say 6, in the weaker draft the year after. So roughly 3 or 4 of our younger players will most likely be delisted in the next 2 years. Blokes like Bode, Dunn, Newton, Buckley, Sylvia, Meesen, even Bell and Moloney need to pull their finger out and work hard, time isn't on their side.

Agree with trading one of Bruce or Green. I'd settle for high second round pick, equals a top 10 pick the following draft. Doubt We'll find anyone stupid enough to take it though.

[Gouga 570]

Well done for spotting some positives where everyone else sees doom!

Another advantage the GC team having so many picks is they'll be using them to trade with other clubs for more established players. Brad Miller and Ricky Petterd are two players that might be willing to go home and could net us a couple handy picks.

[mauriesy 7,298]

Another advantage the GC team having so many picks is they'll be using them to trade with other clubs for more established players. Brad Miller and Ricky Petterd are two players that might be willing to go home and could net us a couple handy picks.

Why is there a tendency on this board to want to trade a player (like Petterd) "for a handy pick" after spending 2-3 years developing them?

[Gouga 570]

Why is there a tendency on this board to want to trade a player (like Petterd) "for a handy pick" after spending 2-3 years developing them?

It is all about list management. If we are going to be denied access to 18 y.o. players we might have to make a couple of sacrifices to make sure in 5-10 years time we don't have an eneven list like we do know.

[godees 863]

Why is there a tendency on this board to want to trade a player (like Petterd) "for a handy pick" after spending 2-3 years developing them?

It's ridiculous. There's is not much that annoys me more than reading, "..... did well today. We could probably get a top 20 pick for him if he keeps it up"

Thankfully, I don't think the club thinks like that.

[Gouga 570]

It's ridiculous. There's is not much that annoys me more than reading, "..... did well today. We could probably get a top 20 pick for him if he keeps it up"

Thankfully, I don't think the club thinks like that.

The issue is the GC and WS teams will be given first crack at a lot of the young talent in the next few years. If we want to draft some of that talent we will need to offer players for picks. I like Petterd and think he'll be a great player for us. However in the interest of a balanced list we might need to look at trading him or somebody similar.

Right now we are paying the consequence of poor list management. Holding on to players when we have limited opportunities to draft will produce the same results. We'll need to create opportunities to draft.

[furious d 464]

It's ridiculous. There's is not much that annoys me more than reading, "..... did well today. We could probably get a top 20 pick for him if he keeps it up"

Thankfully, I don't think the club thinks like that.

I don't think the club thinks like that either, could have something to do with why we haven't won a flag for 44 years. Trading T.J last year showed maybe they will start taking these hard decisions.

I would be sad to see Bruce or Green traded, but the club is bigger than the individual. If we could gain an extra high pick this year without losing any of our younger players (keep Petterd definately IMO) we should do it. This is the last pure draft for several years, with our young list we'd be mad not to. Just when the draft concessions are starting to bite other clubs our list will be maturing nicely.

[mauriesy 7,298]

I don't think the club thinks like that either, could have something to do with why we haven't won a flag for 44 years. Trading T.J last year showed maybe they will start taking these hard decisions.

I would be sad to see Bruce or Green traded, but the club is bigger than the individual. If we could gain an extra high pick this year without losing any of our younger players (keep Petterd definately IMO) we should do it. This is the last pure draft for several years, with our young list we'd be mad not to. Just when the draft concessions are starting to bite other clubs our list will be maturing nicely.

Trading a player like TJ or Bruce or Green is not the same as trading a player like Petterd. Petterd is a player who "slipped" to 30 but who shows heaps of potential. A draft pick at around the same level is a totally unknown quantity.

The obverse of having a team with too much old and dead wood is having one with too much inexperience and not enough 23-27-year-old "core", which is where players like Petterd will be with a few more years development. Trade him for an 18-year-old and we're starting over again..

[Jarka 767]

probably indicates how much the draft penalties in 1999 and 2000 hurt us doesnt it? that hole in the list of mature players, at the peak of their games who should be leaders would be filled nicely by 17 year olds drafted in those years who would now be 25-28 years old...

Disagree, the 1998 and 2001 drafts had much more of an impact to our current list than what happened in 1999 and 2000.

My reasoning is as follows - not one player remains on our list from any of the 98 drafts (ps, Nov or rookie), from 2001 only Miller and Jamar remain, both clearly not up to it. But from the 99 draft we still have Green, Wheately, Whelan and Bruce. 2001 was quite successful as we got both of Scotty Thompson and Troy Simmonds, we just weren't able to keep them at the club.

2001 in particular hurt us quite badly, still widely regarded as the 'super draft'. In comparison to our dismal effort Geelong picked up Bartel, Kelly, S.Johnson & D.Johnson (didn't include the father/son selection), the first three would be a good basis of any team. The Saints took Dal Santo, Maguire and Montagna, all available to us.

[Little Goffy 14,568]

I think I'm experiencing my first ever actual, real-life denial reflex.

Are the AFL seriously talking about closing off the top 15 of the draft to all but the new clubs?

That is insane. And would be totally unacceptable.

I thought it was more along the lines of a priority pick 'zone' selection.

The new Gold Coast team and the new Sydney team each get up to 15 picks at the start of the draft to select players from within their state or designated recruiting zone. NOT from the entire AFL junior pool.

They also can select players in a similar zone-draft arrangement before the new AFL level team enters the competition - these players would play in the respective state competitions as a single team (it has already been discussed that they might be under the coaching of Michael Voss in the Gold Coast case) and there could even be an element of players been traded to the new club, to play in this 'warm-up' squad - essentially a reserves/junior side gets created and filled in advance of the full-blown AFL side.

With the zone restriction in place, it's no so bad and makes sense.

But seriously... 15 top picks in one squad, drawing on the whole AFL talent pool?

So perhaps Hodge, Ball, Judd, Bartel & Dal Santo in one go?

No, it'd be too much. Especially combined with the salary cap benefit. Too much.