2 hours ago, Wells 11 said:

I hate to be pragmatic but I don’t think playing finals is the be all and end all in 2025. Imo It’s more important that we’ve gone close, beaten some top sides on the way and proven our style of play. Worth remembering we missed the finals in 2020 in those circumstances.

Be great to make it of course but I don’t think we’re going to win it in 25 even if we do make it. 2026 might feel like a different beast.

I was thinking something very similar this arvo.

Like all dees fans I hated the thought after our loss to the bombers that finals were our of the question. Uggh

Of course i hope we make finals, but just being in the frame for finals now creates an energy and buzz.

This may surprise some ( possibly won't others )

Right at the moment :

I'm enjoying watching us. We've improved considerably.

I have no real expectations for the season, but quietly hope we continue and do well. Finals ...whatever. Let's see how it pans out.

Learnings, perhaps we have....

Blowtorch on coach can probably be turned off for now. Again, let's see how it pans out.

Have we arrived ? No.

Beginning of season we were absolute garbage. Totally irrelevant.

Currently, relevant and competitive and in the game.

As topic defines... We're not dead.

So if you're alive, fight. Fight we will. Good.

We have something to work with. The list needs improving. Game still needs improvement. Goalkicking... meh..

Let's cast the runes and see.

I was confident preseason, found the first 5 weeks terrible. A bombers fan friend said to me after the Essendon game “your list is so much better than ours” Admittedly that was part of a broader conversation. At this point I just want us to remain relatively injury free. If we do that then anything is possible. I’m not putting limits either way on this year. As for next year, it’s flag or bust!!

On 26/05/2025 at 18:24, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

Bit of time on my hands!...

Let's assume we can't bridge the percentage gaps (though more on that later). And let's assume we can't catch Suns, Lions (currently 3 wins ahead) or Magpies (4).

Next round, for us and the teams ahead of us on the ladder, if teams higher on the ladder than their opposition win, the 4th-11th 'wins ladder' will be: Crows 8, Cats 8, Hawks 7, Giants 7, Dogs 6, Dockers 6, Bombers 6, Demons 6.

Then, if, in the remaining rounds, those 7 teams above us lose to those currently above them and defeat those currently below them, the final 'wins ladder' for them would be: Cats 17, Crows 15 + Demons game, Dogs 14 + Demons game, Hawks 13 + Demons game, Giants 13, Dockers 13, Bombers 11.

Most likely minimum requirement, then, is 14 wins, to sneak into 8th, at the expense of Giants. Wins against Hawks, Hawks and Dogs, and Hawks, Dogs and Crows would be necessary for 7th, 6th, and 5th, respectively, to come into play in this scenario.

So, at least 9 wins (including next week) from 12 remaining games, 3 of which are against current 1st, twice, and 3rd.

If we could bridge the percentage gap to the Giants in this scenario (currently 17%) we could sneak into 8th with 13 wins.

My head is spinning!

8 hours ago, hardtack said:

My head is spinning!

11 hours ago, binman said:

I was thinking something very similar this arvo.

Like all dees fans I hated the thought after our loss to the bombers that finals were our of the question. Uggh

Of course i hope we make finals, but just being in the frame for finals now creates an energy and buzz.

I am more excited about where we are now, compared to where we were last year.

We had a few good wins at the start of last year, then fell away. Hard. Think we lost to the Eagles and the 'wheels fell off' loss to Freo at this time. Here we have started poorly, and built nicely, better injury list, I can see us building towards something.

Finals would be great. I think we CAN make it. And if we do, we will be coming in with some steam so others will be wary. But if we don't, I think we can see the path forward.

We are generally playing well. The season now has the vibes of us 2021-2022 part way. I expect we should win. Or definitely can win. I even expect a very good showing against the filth, that will make everyone sit up and take notice.

They (the media) in my view . Ignore that we have beaten the last years finalists.

Who else has done that. Go Dee’s

4 hours ago, 640MD said:

We are generally playing well. The season now has the vibes of us 2021-2022 part way. I expect we should win. Or definitely can win. I even expect a very good showing against the filth, that will make everyone sit up and take notice.

They (the media) in my view . Ignore that we have beaten the last years finalists.

Who else has done that. Go Dee’s

Collingwood have also beaten both of last year’s Grand finalists.

Okay, so leading into another important game tomorrow, a win against the Saints will have us right amongst the 8. Win tomorrow and it starts to put the pressure on those shaky teams above. Namely Hawthorn and Freo. But even the Suns and the Crows have a history of choking and it's hard to get a good read on the Bulldogs and Geelong. In other words, there are plenty of spots up for grabs.

Our percentage is the real watch and although if we keep improving this will take care of itself, we know as Melbourne supporters that a percentage point here or there could mean a 9th finish versus 8th (see 2017).

In a strong 2-3 week block, 89.3 can turn very quickly to 100 and we're back amongst it percentage-wise. Just as GWS' 109.9 and Hawthorn's 110.2 can turn south towards 100 if they have a few slips, and Hawthorn definitely have the yips at the moment.

Brisbane and Collingwood are the only rational locks for the 8, but I reckon the rest of the spots from 3rd-8th to Round 12 are up for grabs.

And like scoreboard pressure within games, keeping the heat on those above us by winning games puts pressure on those with spots in the 8.

We will lose games, that's a fact. I hope we don't drop tomorrow though. It is a danger game.

11 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

Okay, so leading into another important game tomorrow, a win against the Saints will have us right amongst the 8. Win tomorrow and it starts to put the pressure on those shaky teams above. Namely Hawthorn and Freo. But even the Suns and the Crows have a history of choking and it's hard to get a good read on the Bulldogs and Geelong. In other words, there are plenty of spots up for grabs.

Our percentage is the real watch and although if we keep improving this will take care of itself, we know as Melbourne supporters that a percentage point here or there could mean a 9th finish versus 8th (see 2017).

In a strong 2-3 week block, 89.3 can turn very quickly to 100 and we're back amongst it percentage-wise. Just as GWS' 109.9 and Hawthorn's 110.2 can turn south towards 100 if they have a few slips, and Hawthorn definitely have the yips at the moment.

Brisbane and Collingwood are the only rational locks for the 8, but I reckon the rest of the spots from 3rd-8th to Round 12 are up for grabs.

And like scoreboard pressure within games, keeping the heat on those above us by winning games puts pressure on those with spots in the 8.

We will lose games, that's a fact. I hope we don't drop tomorrow though. It is a danger game.

You clearly haven’t looked at Geelongs draw. The AFL have arranged 10 practice matches for them in the run home just to get them finals ready. They are a lock for top 4.

13 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

You clearly haven’t looked at Geelongs draw. The AFL have arranged 10 practice matches for them in the run home just to get them finals ready. They are a lock for top 4.

Haha, plenty of spots up for grabs nonetheless.

On 28/05/2025 at 21:57, beelzebub said:

This may surprise some ( possibly won't others )

Right at the moment :

I'm enjoying watching us. We've improved considerably.

I have no real expectations for the season, but quietly hope we continue and do well. Finals ...whatever. Let's see how it pans out.

Learnings, perhaps we have....

Blowtorch on coach can probably be turned off for now. Again, let's see how it pans out.

Have we arrived ? No.

Beginning of season we were absolute garbage. Totally irrelevant.

Currently, relevant and competitive and in the game.

As topic defines... We're not dead.

So if you're alive, fight. Fight we will. Good.

We have something to work with. The list needs improving. Game still needs improvement. Goalkicking... meh..

Let's cast the runes and see.

I’m in the same boat as you beelzebub, I’m finding I’m able to enjoy watching us playing a bit more when I’m not as concerned with the win/loss ratio and percentage.

When we were kicking poorly for goal in the second last week I didn’t get nearly as annoyed as I would normally as I’m finding it pretty easy to take the positives at the minute in terms of how we’re are playing and direction we are going in, if we play finals great but if we don’t so be it.

As long as we have a game plan that is taking shape and wins us some big games, a functional forward line and in a good spot to reload for 26 I’ll be happy.

i'm enjoying our more expansive game style and attacking intent

much better than watching dump kicks into our forward pocket

Edited yesterday at 04:271 day by BDA

2 hours ago, Adam The God said:

Haha, plenty of spots up for grabs nonetheless.

I’d have Brisbane, GC, Collingwood and Geelong as locks at this stage, then the Dogs and Adelaide, with Hawthorn, GWS and Freo as our competition. I haven’t ruled out a top 4 finish just yet but think 6th is our likely destination. For that we have to win at least one of our Collingwood matches.

Given a reasonable run with injury there is a chance that we challenge for top 4.

We will need a lot of luck. We have an improving Oliver, Salem and Petracca, an underdone Lever and McVee that can also improve, and Casey's last 2 weeks has seen some names emerge that will put pressure on players.

We have Gawn and Pickett firing on all cylinders and some scope for players to continue building form and tweaks to a system that we are continuing to grow into.

Nothing would surprise me.

You can always rely on Fremantle to ruin everything by winning when they shouldn’t. Goddamit Freo!

1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

I’d have Brisbane, GC, Collingwood and Geelong as locks at this stage, then the Dogs and Adelaide, with Hawthorn, GWS and Freo as our competition. I haven’t ruled out a top 4 finish just yet but think 6th is our likely destination. For that we have to win at least one of our Collingwood matches.

Suns lost to Freo today on their own deck.

Definitely not a lock for mine.

Edited yesterday at 06:511 day by Adam The God

29 minutes ago, Robbie On Skates said:

Given a reasonable run with injury there is a chance that we challenge for top 4.

Love the optimism

I haven't done the numbers but we'd need to win them all bar one or two.

Memories of 87

1 minute ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Love the optimism

I haven't done the numbers but we'd need to win them all bar one or two.

Memories of 87

It just depends how flakey spots 3 to 4 are. I don't expect the Suns or Crows to be in the top 4 come the end of 2025, but I guess we'll see.

6 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Love the optimism

I haven't done the numbers but we'd need to win them all bar one or two.

Memories of 87

Yep. 10 or 11.

We need to keep our current trajectory and have no major injuries to key players.

24 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

You can always rely on Fremantle to ruin everything by winning when they shouldn’t. Goddamit Freo!

Unless....you are wanting to occupy the space that GCS is in.

27 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

Suns lost to Freo today on their own deck.

Definitely not a lock for mine.

It’s actually a good result for us as I’m looking at a top 4 spot until that’s unachievable

19 minutes ago, Robbie On Skates said:

Unless....you are wanting to occupy the space that GCS is in.

3 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

It’s actually a good result for us as I’m looking at a top 4 spot until that’s unachievable

Loving the cockiness

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

Loving the cockiness

I don’t see it as cockiness. We have a very strong list that’s largely fit and we’re playing a competitive game style. At this point anything is possible.

Really need to win tomorrow to stay amongst the pack. If we lose, we're then 2 games outside the 8 and then a red hot Pies, Port away and GC away.