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Posted

…..and his time I will look at our midfield.

I am based in Europe and watch the game via live streaming no matter what the day no matter what the time. I am here in front of my screen giving advice. Not just advice to the team, coaches and players but also to the directors selecting camera shots and replays etc.

One thing that really, and I mean REALLY,  annoys me is that after a goal is scored they concentrate on the player and reactions and then after a time replay the goal leadup and score. This is usually just as the teams are setting up for the re-start. Unfortunately, as the goal replay is on the bounce setup is confined to a small supplementary screen in the bottom right hand corner. This does not allow me to see who is in the centre or how they are setting up. I hate that.

Now that I have that rant off my chest…….

Gawn, Oliver, Viney and Petracca our 4 Horsemen of the Midfield Apocalypse. Been doing it together for quite a while and I have enjoyed watching it. Each of them is very different to one another in where their strengths lie and the way they play the game. I see them as the ‘go to’ drivers of the midfield.

Last season the only one of four was there most of the time and playing to a high standard and that was Viney. He relishes the hard work and the responsibility and rarely disappoints. 30yo now and does not look like slowing down. Oliver, as we all know had a pretty torrid last half of the ’23 season and pre-season in ’24 and was but a shadow of himself all through the last season. Petracca had the big injury in the KB match and was out for the rest of the season and Max was out for a few matches and we were without any ruck backup.

Given the state of these four last season and how they look to be tracking in this preseason, I expect that we will have a much stronger and better structured midfield this season. One thing that did come out of last season was the chances that were given to a couple of players to have a run in the midfield. This has given the list a bit more depth than was and along with the drafting we look to have developing strength and depth for our midfield rotations.

Viney is in his prime and we always know what we will get from him, week in, week out.

Oliver is ticking all the boxes in training and looks fit, happy and ready to roll. Very different to last year.

Petracca has come back strong and fit into this pre-season and as long as his head is clear I can see him out there with a point to prove this year. I expect him to spend more time in the midfield on the ball than he did last year.

Rivers showed a lot of potential during his spells in the guts last year and I can see him getting more time there this year as long as he is not required to fill in in defence too much. He has  high midfield ceiling in my view.

Sparrow seemed to plateau a bit last season, and I would like to see him elevate his game a bit more this year. To me, he has always looked likely but has not taken he game to the highest possible level.

Pickett will get time in the middle this season but he may be required more up forward as the cupboard looks to be a bit bare when it comes to small forwards.

Those are the players that I think will get most inside, onball time and, if they can stay fit and build games playing together, I would see our midfield being one of the competition leaders.

As backup to this core, I can see a number of young developing players that will be hungry for a chance to impress.

Tholstrup had a good solid season last year in a losing team. Not an easy thing to do. Given a chance to back up a stronger midfield rotation I can see him learning quickly and a lot.

Bailey Laurie is one that I watch and think he should be playing better than what he is showing. Last couple of seasons he has been the ‘almost man’. Needs to get a run of games and turn those flashes of excellent play into a string of quality possessions across a full game.

Langford has stepped into the team training and looked at home from day one. He will feature early in the season if not R1. However, I hope that he is managed and brought along slowly with the older more experienced players shouldering  majority of the load. Maybe a forward pocket/HF with a couple of cameos in the middle to get a taste.

Lindsay is in a similar situation to Langford. Looks a natural footballer that could well start at HBF or wing with a little time in the middle this season. As with all young footballers, until they are under pressure week in week out, we don’t really know if we will end up with diamonds or dust.

Brown is one that I think will surprise a bit this season. Looks to be a tough little nut with a good turn of speed. Might be that he gets a run as a fillin small forward early. I see his future in the middle.

Sestan has been around for while and I think this will be a make or break season for him. I want him to succeed, and it might be as a small forward initially. Will be keeping a close eye on both him and Brown at Casey.

The wings are going to be an interesting watch. Not just to see who plays there but also how we use them. Langdon looks to be a lock on one wing with Sharp and Billings primary alternatives for the other. Windsor can slot back in there as required.

Langdon is the best wing player I have seen in quite a while. Ha incredible stamina, good speed and a very good footy brain.

Sharp has excellent stamina, speed but I have not really seen him play so not idea of his footy quality. Have been good reports about him in training….. but that is training. We shall see.

Billings will be better this season than he was last. I think he learnt a lot last year and will be fitter this year.

And the Rucks…

Max, the best ruckman of his generation and one of the best of all time. If he has a good run with injury, he will lead us deep into the pointy end of the season.

Campbell is a good get as back up to Max. It remains to be seen how and who we employ as second ruck on game days.

Verrall is still only 20 and has a bit of time to develop to his full potential. I hope that he gets some good time a Casey ruck to develop and gain confidence.

Fullaton is listed as a ruck but I do not think he is being developed there. We shall see…..

The old adage about the game being won or lost in the midfield is one of the turisms (I am sure that is a word) of footy. Last year our midfield lost manpower and structure and the team suffered. This year I can see us getting a hell of a lot more drive and both attacking and defensive cover from the midfield group.

Petracca to spend more time in the mid field this year. I think he will be a very determined young man along with Oliver who also has a bit to prove after last year. These two, along with Viney and the others in support will win us a lot more games than we lose. Jones assisting in the midfield coaching is a good look and, I hope, a good football decision.

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Posted

 This is a pretty good video which goes into some of the points you've raised. If people like data-led analysis, this is one of the better 'list analysis' videos going around. 

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Posted

it's where the game is ultimately won or lost - if your midfield has ascendancy then generally speaking you're in a good position to be the team in control of the game

we have three players who will go down as three of the greatest mfc players of any era - gawn, petracca, oliver

gawn is the greatest ruckman the game has ever seen and shows no signs of not being so

petracca is built as the prototype mid-fwd, albeit without the exquisite kicking skills of dustin martin; he's more alike to patrick dangerfield in terms of his ball usage, but i'd argue is more of a 'game changer' than the latter, more akin to the former

oliver is the best pure mid i've ever seen at the dees; if he gets back to full fitness and capability, more aflca awards - as far as i'm concerned, the pinnacle modern award - await in his future

the way i see it the next tier down is either wily veterans, players at the peak of their powers, or emerging talent

i think viney can be like travis boak and play deep into his mid-30s; he's never been quick so there's no fear of him slowing down in his dotage

langdon is the perfect modern wingman, running hard both ways all day for 99% game time; aerobic beast

the big gap we have is in the mid-tier age players - billings, laurie are classique 'too good for vfl; not good enough for afl' players (which is not meant as a knock per se; it's meant to indicate that they'll be in / out of the senior side and only ever bit-part contributors, not even really role players as per how neal-bullen was for us for five or so years once his fitness base was elite), although personally i think billings will only be better in 2025 for having been part of our system in 2024

rivers i think has the capacity to be petracca-alike - the move into the middle in 2024 showed that he can impact around stoppage and on the scoreboard, which is what you want to see from an emerging player of his era, with 5 years in the system

my only concern with pickett moving into the midfield is that it's robbing peter to pay paul; ideally you want him in both locations as the small pressure forward is, arguably, the #1 most important 'role player' in the game in these modern times as they are expected to stop the oppo transitioning out of defence with ease AND impact the scoreboard, and arguably koz is one of the best in the business at doing so

i have high hopes for the likes of tholstrup, langford, lindsay as i'm sure we all do - first round picks should be yr best players, and there's an expectation that they're ready to go in 2025 to be a part of the senior side

sharp, woey 2.0, pup brown, sestan - let's wait and see if they can grow into afl roles; i look at how long it took anb to establish himself as a key player as a fwd-mid at afl level or for langdon to be an elite wingman from 2021 onwards, and i have hopes that at least one of these trio can be part of a senior side moving forward as they continue to develop

we are short on quality ruck stocks, but i don't think that's too surprising given that gawn is a freak; no player - other than reg for a loaner for a year - will want to be a second fiddle to the great man when they think that they are afl-ready; campbell will compete for us if required, but it's a case 'who knows' with the likes of verrall or fullarton, the latter of whom looks to me to be more a forward than a ruck per se

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Posted
1 hour ago, BLWNBA said:

 This is a pretty good video which goes into some of the points you've raised. If people like data-led analysis, this is one of the better 'list analysis' videos going around. 

There was a lot of talk but I'm not sure it signifies that much. I noticed the guy thought we lost by 7 points in Round 3 to Port (which we won, of course). Did he make any other errors? A bit like 'forgetting to carry the 1' in maths it wouldn't take much for this analysis to be quite inaccurate.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Go Ds said:

There was a lot of talk but I'm not sure it signifies that much. I noticed the guy thought we lost by 7 points in Round 3 to Port (which we won, of course). Did he make any other errors? A bit like 'forgetting to carry the 1' in maths it wouldn't take much for this analysis to be quite inaccurate.

What a sloppy error that was.

That was one of our best wins of recent years and certainly gets overshadowed on how we finished last year. Infact we had some fine early season wins over the Dogs, Hawthorn, Port and Geelong but they seems like years ago.

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Posted

I’m one of many that are banking on the fit and healthy quadrella  of Gawn, Trac, Oliver and Viney to shoot us back on the ladder.

However, it needs to be acknowledged that during our awful losses to West Coast and Freo mid season we had Gawn at the peak of his powers (all Aust), Trac at the peak of his powers (had an absurd amount of Brownlow votes by round 11), Viney at the peak of his powers (B&F winner) and Oliver who admittedly wasn’t as his peak, playing in those games.

 

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Posted

We really need Oliver to be an A-grader this year. We won't be a genuine chance if he gives us another C-grade season.

We also hope that Max can continue to be a dominant force, Petracca comes back well from injury and Langford has a good debut season, but I think the rest of our midfield is much more predictable in terms of expected output.

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Posted
2 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

it's where the game is ultimately won or lost - if your midfield has ascendancy then generally speaking you're in a good position to be the team in control of the game

we have three players who will go down as three of the greatest mfc players of any era - gawn, petracca, oliver

gawn is the greatest ruckman the game has ever seen and shows no signs of not being so

petracca is built as the prototype mid-fwd, albeit without the exquisite kicking skills of dustin martin; he's more alike to patrick dangerfield in terms of his ball usage, but i'd argue is more of a 'game changer' than the latter, more akin to the former

oliver is the best pure mid i've ever seen at the dees; if he gets back to full fitness and capability, more aflca awards - as far as i'm concerned, the pinnacle modern award - await in his future

the way i see it the next tier down is either wily veterans, players at the peak of their powers, or emerging talent

i think viney can be like travis boak and play deep into his mid-30s; he's never been quick so there's no fear of him slowing down in his dotage

langdon is the perfect modern wingman, running hard both ways all day for 99% game time; aerobic beast

the big gap we have is in the mid-tier age players - billings, laurie are classique 'too good for vfl; not good enough for afl' players (which is not meant as a knock per se; it's meant to indicate that they'll be in / out of the senior side and only ever bit-part contributors, not even really role players as per how neal-bullen was for us for five or so years once his fitness base was elite), although personally i think billings will only be better in 2025 for having been part of our system in 2024

rivers i think has the capacity to be petracca-alike - the move into the middle in 2024 showed that he can impact around stoppage and on the scoreboard, which is what you want to see from an emerging player of his era, with 5 years in the system

my only concern with pickett moving into the midfield is that it's robbing peter to pay paul; ideally you want him in both locations as the small pressure forward is, arguably, the #1 most important 'role player' in the game in these modern times as they are expected to stop the oppo transitioning out of defence with ease AND impact the scoreboard, and arguably koz is one of the best in the business at doing so

i have high hopes for the likes of tholstrup, langford, lindsay as i'm sure we all do - first round picks should be yr best players, and there's an expectation that they're ready to go in 2025 to be a part of the senior side

sharp, woey 2.0, pup brown, sestan - let's wait and see if they can grow into afl roles; i look at how long it took anb to establish himself as a key player as a fwd-mid at afl level or for langdon to be an elite wingman from 2021 onwards, and i have hopes that at least one of these trio can be part of a senior side moving forward as they continue to develop

we are short on quality ruck stocks, but i don't think that's too surprising given that gawn is a freak; no player - other than reg for a loaner for a year - will want to be a second fiddle to the great man when they think that they are afl-ready; campbell will compete for us if required, but it's a case 'who knows' with the likes of verrall or fullarton, the latter of whom looks to me to be more a forward than a ruck per se

What what say what, don’t forget The Duke, add him into the quartet with Kolt, Langford and Lindsay, they will all improve us rapidly. 😁

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Posted
2 hours ago, Go Ds said:

There was a lot of talk but I'm not sure it signifies that much. I noticed the guy thought we lost by 7 points in Round 3 to Port (which we won, of course). Did he make any other errors? A bit like 'forgetting to carry the 1' in maths it wouldn't take much for this analysis to be quite inaccurate.

The other thing is those stats just assume we continue the way we did last year. What would be better is if he assessed the 2023 season as well to see what the difference was and then see if players like Oliver and Trac got back to 2023 levels, how big a change that would make.

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Posted
15 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

The other thing is those stats just assume we continue the way we did last year. What would be better is if he assessed the 2023 season as well to see what the difference was and then see if players like Oliver and Trac got back to 2023 levels, how big a change that would make.

Yep. Most teams' supporters would have a feel on whether their team will improve, or not, in the new season. But trying to predict the top 8 (or every team's fortune) can only end in tears. It's almost become a given that each year 3 or 4 teams will take the place of some of the previous year's finalists. On top of that we've just seen two defending premiers drop out and plenty of teams jump way up the ladder in a single bound. I'll still ponder each pre-season on how our team will go. But you may as well as try and predict the weather for New York some day a few decades away for all the good it'll do.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Go Ds said:

Yep. Most teams' supporters would have a feel on whether their team will improve, or not, in the new season. But trying to predict the top 8 (or every team's fortune) can only end in tears. It's almost become a given that each year 3 or 4 teams will take the place of some of the previous year's finalists. On top of that we've just seen two defending premiers drop out and plenty of teams jump way up the ladder in a single bound. I'll still ponder each pre-season on how our team will go. But you may as well as try and predict the weather for New York some day a few decades away for all the good it'll do.

Yep correct.

Another thing he could do is compare players like a JVR or a McVee with similar players at the same age. He could then assess the improvements they may have made from season 3 to season 4 to try make some assumptions around those changes.

When it comes to the first year draftees, I'd probably take the average of every pick from that number over the last 10 years or something.

Think his assessments have a lot of holes, but it's a good way to review the last season and areas for improvements.

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Posted

I honestly don't know what would be accurate, DJ. There are plenty of games where within minutes you can see if one (or both) teams are on or whether all your expectations need to be thrown out the window. I think most seasons start the same way (though that may change a bit as the seasons just about start before Woollies sell hot cross buns and teams need to pace themselves even more)

I won't bother with this guy's other YouTube predictions for this year.

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Posted

To have a top midfield you need at least 2 players capable of amassing 30 - 40 possessions a game.   A fit Oliver is certainly that but not sure there is a second.  Viney is a mid 20's player and Tracc spends a lot of his time forward so doesn't amass huge numbers.  The big hope is that Langford becomes another Ashcroft.

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Posted
3 hours ago, DeeZone said:

What what say what, don’t forget The Duke, add him into the quartet with Kolt, Langford and Lindsay, they will all improve us rapidly. 😁

half back rebounder for mine going forward

our own lachie whitfield

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, stinga said:

To have a top midfield you need at least 2 players capable of amassing 30 - 40 possessions a game.   A fit Oliver is certainly that but not sure there is a second.  Viney is a mid 20's player and Tracc spends a lot of his time forward so doesn't amass huge numbers.  The big hope is that Langford becomes another Ashcroft.

Oliver, Petracca and to a lesser extent Viney are big ball winners - Gawn likewise averages huge disposal numbers for a ruck

Rivers will get a healthy amount if he plays in the middle too

What people underrate (while not a mid) is that we've essentially lost 25 quality disposals a game from Salo for the last 3 years while he's been chronically injured, and no ones really stepped up to cover it. Hopefully Salem stays fit and we get a proper year out of him in 2025, but at least this season we've got Windsor and possibly Lindsay as class options too

Edited by adonski
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Posted
2 hours ago, stinga said:

To have a top midfield you need at least 2 players capable of amassing 30 - 40 possessions a game.   A fit Oliver is certainly that but not sure there is a second.  Viney is a mid 20's player and Tracc spends a lot of his time forward so doesn't amass huge numbers.  The big hope is that Langford becomes another Ashcroft.

That’s not really correct. If we take Brisbane last year who I think had one of the strongest midfields had the following averages for the year:

Neale - 29

Dunkley - 25

McLuggage - 25

Ashcroft - 23 (returning from

ACL injury)

Fletcher - 15

Rayner - 15

Zorko also had 26 but he played more across half back.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

That’s not really correct. If we take Brisbane last year who I think had one of the strongest midfields had the following averages for the year:

Neale - 29

Dunkley - 25

McLuggage - 25

Ashcroft - 23 (returning from

ACL injury)

Fletcher - 15

Rayner - 15

Zorko also had 26 but he played more across half back.

If you have 4 players averaging 25 or more then at least 2 will be in the 30's each game in most games.  I said capable of it, so 5 of them would fit that.

Edited by stinga
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, stinga said:

If you have 4 players averaging 25 or more then at least 2 will be in the 30's each game in most games.  I said capable of it, so 5 of them would fit that.

Ok. Well capable of it in our side should be Oliver, Petracca and Viney who have all shown the ability to crack over 30 touches. Rivers may also move into that category next year also.

In 2023 for example we had:

Oliver - 30.3 average

Petracca - 27.8

Viney - 25.6

Brayshaw - 22.8

I think our main issue was the depth after the first 3 in Trac, Oliver and Viney. Hopefully guys like Rivers, Salo, Windsor etc can increase their disposal counts so we aren’t so reliant on those 3

Edited by DistrACTION Jackson

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