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Melbourne Finals 2024 - Mathematical Chance

chookrat
in Melbourne Demons

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Posted

I have ran the numbers and if some results go our way and we can make up around 120 point turnaround in score for / against we can displace Hawthorn and pass Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon on the ladder. Here is a breakdown re what needs to play out.

- *Hawthorn loses to Richmond and North

- *Carlton loses to West Coast and St Kilda

- Essendon loses or draws to Brisbane

- *Melbourne beats Collingwood

*Re percentage we have to make up around 7.5% on Hawthorn and 6.5% on Carlton which is roughly a 20 goal differential. To be safe we should try to beat Collingwood by exactly 186 points. Essendon are only 2 points ahead of us and have a worse percentage so either a loss or draw will work.

Aside from Hawthorn v Richmond which Hawthorn should win, I reckon the other games are at least a 50 / 50 in our favour. Clarko will get his boys up against his old side, Carlton are ravaged with injury and have 6 forced changes vs West Coast, St Kilda are playing well and Brisbane should beat Essendon.

In all of the media hysterics over the past couple of weeks not one person in the media have reported on our narrow path to victory. Dees!

Edited by chookrat

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    Sorry but I find this unnecessary.

    At least wait until the end of today's games. 

    Let's be realistic we are not making finals, even if we beat Collingwood.

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    5 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

    Sorry but I find this unnecessary.

    At least wait until the end of today's games. 

    Let's be realistic we are not making finals, even if we beat Collingwood.

    Think it’s taking the urine

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    37 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

    Sorry but I find this unnecessary.

    At least wait until the end of today's games. 

    Let's be realistic we are not making finals, even if we beat Collingwood.

    And the speculation re Trac isn't. By the same logic we should wait until we hear from Trac, his manager or the club. My post is useful in keeping some interest on the remaining rounds on which results are relevant to us. They are also relevant in whether us beating Collingwood next week shuts them out of finals contention.

    Edited by chookrat

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    Some of these threads are getting stranger by the day.

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    Still possible to finish 7th if the Bulldogs lose by a combined couple of hundred and we 186 Collingwood.

    Also still possible to finish 14th is Gold Coast and St Kilda step up.

    I'll be focusing on finishing the season in a competitive mode, and ideally being six goals up and growing with five minutes to go so we can start a sarcastic Collingwood chant as their soft supporters walk out, leaving us to enjoy the moment together.

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    Better chance of winning next weeks Powerball then for us making the 8 this season.. 

    Edited by John Crow Batty

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    • Author
    15 minutes ago, John Crow Batty said:

    Better chance of winning next weeks Powerball then for us making the 8 this season.. 

    I did say it is a narrow path to Victory 🙌 

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    36 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

    Some of these threads are getting stranger by the day.

    Stay tuned to the next post which is our narrower path to Premiers 🏆

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    In hindsight the Port loss was the one that got away. Didn’t feel like it at the time though.

    Had we nailed those late shots in the loss, next weekend would be a hell of a lot more interesting.

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    Just now, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    In hindsight the Port loss was the one that got away. Didn’t feel like it at the time though.

    Had we nailed those late shots in the loss, next weekend would be a hell of a lot more interesting.

    Why hindsight? We all felt it at the time. Those two fourth quarter misses from Billings and Tholstrup hurt. 

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    Just goes to show you how close the comp is and fine margins and luck matter. 
    Yes, we have some issues we need to rectify, but we aren’t the basket case many are making us out to be. 

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    Would be feeling a lot more confident that we could make the finals if Essendon was still in the eight…..and then got busted again for doing performance enhancing drugs.  Unfortunately, we are cooked for 2024.  

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    Never has a waste of time revealed itself so quickly and forcefully.

    Well done 

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    If a team needs calculus to figure out their finals chances then they are in the wrong job.

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