2024 Phantom Drafts

[Adam The God 30,209]

Lindsay = Billings

And we've already got a Billings.

Edited November 6 by Adam The God

[spirit of norm smith 16,418]

24 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

Lindsay = Billings

And we've already got a Billings.

Not imv. Lindsay kicking at 82% in disposal efficiency at Coates league.  Averages 27 disposals per game. Averages 4.2 tackles.  
He compares more to Josh Kelly in my view.  
Billings went at 60% kick efficiency this year and 1.8 average tackles. 
Dees need elite kickers. 
 

[The Taciturn Demon 483]

2 hours ago, 58er said:

The Duke ?

This seems to come up a lot on here. 

I really really like Caleb Windsor, but is he a very good ball user?

Maybe I'm completely missing it, but from what I've seen, his reputation before the draft has proved pretty well spot on: adequate by foot. 

[adonski 12,036]

2 minutes ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

This seems to come up a lot on here. 

I really really like Caleb Windsor, but is he a very good ball user?

Maybe I'm completely missing it, but from what I've seen, his reputation before the draft has proved pretty well spot on: adequate by foot. 

His ball use is just solid, it's his ball use through the big sticks that is a weapon

[Adam The God 30,209]

36 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Not imv. Lindsay kicking at 82% in disposal efficiency at Coates league.  Averages 27 disposals per game. Averages 4.2 tackles.  
He compares more to Josh Kelly in my view.  
Billings went at 60% kick efficiency this year and 1.8 average tackles. 
Dees need elite kickers. 
 

Billings was a x2 u18 AA player, highly rated, pick 3.

I guess the point I'm making is that 60% kicking efficiency and 1.8 tackles at AFL level could well be Lindsay's ceiling too.

It appears to me that the contest is not natural to Lindsay's game.

Anyway, agree to disagree.

[Demons11 6,989]

2 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

No.

Salem is certainly up and under kicks. Certainly not sharp in the last 3 years. Often kicked it 15 metres sideways. Windsor is too early to call. I would say he runs and gets metres etc and love that but disposal efficiency this year was low at around 55% 
Mcvee was composed and assured but I wouldn’t say his kicking is elite.  Definitely good with ball in hand and around the 70/75% level. 

We need midfielders with high kicking efficiency to deliver forward connection

What % do you think the elite players are kicking at? McVee was at 75% in 2024 which is elite.
 

Some caparisons:  Bont 57% and Gulden 58%
 

Edited November 6 by Demons11

[Demon Disciple 12,103]

1 hour ago, adonski said:

His ball use is just solid, it's his ball use through the big sticks that is a weapon

That and his want to move the ball forwards.

[ChaserJ 5,083]

1 hour ago, Adam The God said:

Billings was a x2 u18 AA player, highly rated, pick 3.

I guess the point I'm making is that 60% kicking efficiency and 1.8 tackles at AFL level could well be Lindsay's ceiling too.

It appears to me that the contest is not natural to Lindsay's game.

Anyway, agree to disagree.

Billings was ostensibly a lead and mark medium forward for Vic Metro. Didn't get an extended run in midfield (injury limited opportunity for extended mf time with Chargers), was speculated that he would eventually become a good midfielder.  He and Lindsay not super similar as players at the same point in time, Lindsay has more exposed form in multiple parts of the ground and midfield production at the equivalent stage in his draft year.

Maybe Salem is a better comp.

Edited November 6 by ChaserJ

[spirit of norm smith 16,418]

39 minutes ago, The Taciturn Demon said:

This seems to come up a lot on here. 

I really really like Caleb Windsor, but is he a very good ball user?

Maybe I'm completely missing it, but from what I've seen, his reputation before the draft has proved pretty well spot on: adequate by foot. 

Agree. Caleb wasn’t recruited for his disposal efficiency which was average 55% at best.  It’s his run and carry and metres gained, as well as his competitive nature.  He’s a ripper.  Just need to compliment him with other mids including an elite ball user.  

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,109]

3 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Agree. Caleb wasn’t recruited for his disposal efficiency which was average 55% at best.  It’s his run and carry and metres gained, as well as his competitive nature.  He’s a ripper.  Just need to compliment him with other mids including an elite ball user.  

Serious question: these different characteristics that a midfield needs to provide - inside / outside / run & carry / ball use / etc - If players don't have all or most of them, how is a game plan based on a particular combination of them sustained through rotations?

My point: Players need all or most of the characteristics; so, for example, 'elite ball user' (just using this as an example, sons; it could have been any of the 'needs' that come up herein) isn't enough by itself.

Discuss?

[Axis of Bob 11,782]

22 minutes ago, ChaserJ said:

Maybe Salem is a better comp.

I agree with this. His way of playing just screams half back at the next level. He links well, is composed with the play in front of him, and uses it well but he just doesn’t have the tricks in tight to play as an inside midfielder at AFL. He looks a lock to be a good, long term AFL half back but I also think that’s his ceiling. Salem is a great role comparison, even if his style is a bit more conventional for that role than Salem.

[Adam The God 30,209]

4 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

I agree with this. His way of playing just screams half back at the next level. He links well, is composed with the play in front of him, and uses it well but he just doesn’t have the tricks in tight to play as an inside midfielder at AFL. He looks a lock to be a good, long term AFL half back but I also think that’s his ceiling. Salem is a great role comparison, even if his style is a bit more conventional for that role than Salem.

Salem was pick 9 too wasn't he?

[spirit of norm smith 16,418]

1 hour ago, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

Serious question: these different characteristics that a midfield needs to provide - inside / outside / run & carry / ball use / etc - If players don't have all or most of them, how is a game plan based on a particular combination of them sustained through rotations?

My point: Players need all or most of the characteristics; so, for example, 'elite ball user' (just using this as an example, sons; it could have been any of the 'needs' that come up herein) isn't enough by itself.

Discuss?

Teams often need a blend in the midfield.  Inside contested bulls.  Running skilled mids.  Smart footy IQ decision makers.  You can rotate various ways depending on opposition and your strengths.  
example. Lions. Neale. Ashcroft. Berry.  McCluggage. Rayner. Dunkley. Fletcher.  They all have various skills to compliment each other.  
Dees are loaded for inside bulls.  JV7, Trac, Clarry, Sparrow.  Need to add the class and running power.  That’s why we grabbed Windsor. Thats why we are looking to convert Rivers.   Hope we add two more guns to our midfield.  

[fr_ap 2,477]

9 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

I agree with this. His way of playing just screams half back at the next level. He links well, is composed with the play in front of him, and uses it well but he just doesn’t have the tricks in tight to play as an inside midfielder at AFL. He looks a lock to be a good, long term AFL half back but I also think that’s his ceiling. Salem is a great role comparison, even if his style is a bit more conventional for that role than Salem.

Glad I'm not the only one who doesn't see it with Lindsay. 

Salem actually far harder at the contest too, for what it's worth 

[58er 6,418]

13 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

No.

Salem is certainly up and under kicks. Certainly not sharp in the last 3 years. Often kicked it 15 metres sideways. Windsor is too early to call. I would say he runs and gets metres etc and love that but disposal efficiency this year was low at around 55% 
Mcvee was composed and assured but I wouldn’t say his kicking is elite.  Definitely good with ball in hand and around the 70/75% level. 

We need midfielders with high kicking efficiency to deliver forward connection

Disagree do who is elite consistently ? Sons ? 

[58er 6,418]

33 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

Glad I'm not the only one who doesn't see it with Lindsay. 

Salem actually far harder at the contest too, for what it's worth 

You guys when talking about alleged faults with recruits are so over the top e we the faults. Part of a young players role is to be developed  by the Club. 18yo’s are not ready made players usually. They need upskilling etc.

Granted disposal is hard to change sometimes but you ou would not have 44 on your list if you only look results and not the upside on young draftees. 

[58er 6,418]

9 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Teams often need a blend in the midfield.  Inside contested bulls.  Running skilled mids.  Smart footy IQ decision makers.  You can rotate various ways depending on opposition and your strengths.  
example. Lions. Neale. Ashcroft. Berry.  McCluggage. Rayner. Dunkley. Fletcher.  They all have various skills to compliment each other.  
Dees are loaded for inside bulls.  JV7, Trac, Clarry, Sparrow.  Need to add the class and running power.  That’s why we grabbed Windsor. Thats why we are looking to convert Rivers.   Hope we add two more guns to our midfield.  

Agree with you sons on this fact that we have to get 2 high skilled outside running mids to change our midfield mix.
The defence and contest mantra has resulted in an imbalance of our team and also finishers up forward are perhaps needed . 

[Demonstone 22,455]

11 hours ago, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

My point: Players need all or most of the characteristics; so, for example, 'elite ball user' (just using this as an example, sons; it could have been any of the 'needs' that come up herein) isn't enough by itself.

Discuss?

If a player doesn't have enough of the required 'needs' they should instead take up a track and field sport.

Discus? 

[drdrake 3,163]

1 hour ago, 58er said:

You guys when talking about alleged faults with recruits are so over the top e we the faults. Part of a young players role is to be developed  by the Club. 18yo’s are not ready made players usually. They need upskilling etc.

Granted disposal is hard to change sometimes but you ou would not have 44 on your list if you only look results and not the upside on young draftees. 

Once you hit 15 to 16 years old changing your kicking biomechanics is extremely hard and as soon as pressure comes on you revert back to bad habits.

What can improve is decision making and other skills, but kicking near on impossible to improve field kicking.

[No10 461]

On 05/11/2024 at 20:16, old55 said:

ABC draft ranking, it's not a phantom draft. Not too many surprises or new information 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/2024-afl-draft-rankings-top-30-ashcroft-draper-smith/104562052

I know this isn’t a phantom, but how is the widely expected No 1 draft player ranked 6?

FOS is No 1 for me.

Edited November 6 by No10

[MrFreeze 1,952]

14 hours ago, Demons11 said:

What % do you think the elite players are kicking at? McVee was at 75% in 2024 which is elite.
 

Some caparisons:  Bont 57% and Gulden 58%
 

Disposal efficiency is not a good measure of effective kicking. It is a measure which is too easily skewed by clearances, kick-ins etc. 

A half back that kicks side ways would have very high DE% but minimal damage i.e., Salem

A clearance midfielder that can be highly damaging with ball in hand may have a middling DE% i.e., Bont

 

Meters gained in the back half, and score involvements in the forward half are the best metrics for effective ball use IMO

[Axis of Bob 11,782]

13 minutes ago, MrFreeze said:

Disposal efficiency is not a good measure of effective kicking.

Exactly. 

Fun question: Of the 71 players who had a disposal efficiency over 80% across at least 10 games, how many of them do not play as defenders?

A: There are only 2. James Jordon (66th best) and Karl Amon (51st best).

According to Disposal Efficiency, the 4 best kicks in the AFL are Harris Andrews, Luke Ryan, Ben McKay and Buku Khamis. Not exactly a list of 'who do you want kicking for your life'.

[Demon Disciple 12,103]

2 hours ago, No10 said:

I know this isn’t a phantom, but how is the widely expected No 1 draft player ranked 6?

The dreaded 'P' word. No not phantom.

[DeeSpencer 25,627]

13 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

I agree with this. His way of playing just screams half back at the next level. He links well, is composed with the play in front of him, and uses it well but he just doesn’t have the tricks in tight to play as an inside midfielder at AFL. He looks a lock to be a good, long term AFL half back but I also think that’s his ceiling. Salem is a great role comparison, even if his style is a bit more conventional for that role than Salem.

He played half back on the G in the futures game last year and he looks excellent distributing the ball. We drafted Bowser off a similar performance (with no under 18 year due to covid).

I’d like him to have just a little more height or natural aerial ability, or a little more high end speed so he can be a more complete flanker. Hopefully he has at least high end endurance to keep linking up.

But as is should be a quality half back kicker, not as reliable getting out of trouble as prime Salo but with more penetration.

 

[Stu 919]

2 hours ago, drdrake said:

Once you hit 15 to 16 years old changing your kicking biomechanics is extremely hard and as soon as pressure comes on you revert back to bad habits.

What can improve is decision making and other skills, but kicking near on impossible to improve field kicking.

This is the reason why the best soccer academies, focus on ball control and skill in until around 12. They play on smaller fields to remove physical advantages more developed kids might have (speed, endurance, etc), so that all kids develop the needed technique and skill. Once they get to 15, the chance for technique and skill improvement is marginal.