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I don’t think North are going to survive the Map of Tassie Expansion….

4 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

https://apple.news/A0lAM3pr4RJeGYO9gqQeZFA
 

I don’t think North are going to survive the Map of Tassie Expansion….

McGuire is an [censored] but I don’t disagree on most points. The league doesn’t need 19 teams. But just because Norf are a scraping the barrel at the moment isn’t fair game though. 

 

The league is barely able to sustain 18 teams. There isn’t enough sponsorship, members or players to facilitate a 19th team. Americas population is 10x Australia’s and only has 32 teams. 

24 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

McGuire is an [censored] but I don’t disagree on most points. The league doesn’t need 19 teams. But just because Norf are a scraping the barrel at the moment isn’t fair game though. 

 

Sadly it’s too late. North should have gone 12 years ago. 
Hawthorn are in for a world of pain, but they will survive. North won’t. 
Too many sides in Melbourne as well as an uneven number 

2 minutes ago, Oxdee said:

The league is barely able to sustain 18 teams. There isn’t enough sponsorship, members or players to facilitate a 19th team. Americas population is 10x Australia’s and only has 32 teams. 

Yes. The AFL make money propping up GW$ & GC $un$, but they won’t have any benefit from propping up North. 
The Moment Brayshaw stepped down as President, that was the Final Curtain 

Until we're worried about the AFL going broke, why are we talking about killing teams? This is a sport with nearing 200 years of history. You don't rip that up in search of a dollar.

This was us 10 years ago… couid be us again one day.  We need to support the roos not dig their grave. 

11 minutes ago, Wells 11 said:

This was us 10 years ago… couid be us again one day.  We need to support the roos not dig their grave. 

But how will that happen?

Emotional ties only go so far. How many Players will leave at years end?

How can they attract Big Name Players?

The Spiral has begun….

14 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

But how will that happen?

Emotional ties only go so far. How many Players will leave at years end?

How can they attract Big Name Players?

The Spiral has begun….

Same issue with the Lions 10 years ago, as you may recall. They turned it around as any organisation turns itself around.
It's not a simple fix but it's not a fait accompli that a club doing poorly now will never recover.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/44612/where-did-it-all-go-wrong-for-the-lions

Just now, Chook said:

Same issue with the Lions 10 years ago, as you may recall. They turned it around as any organisation turns itself around.
It's not a simple fix but it's not a fait accompli that a club doing poorly now will never recover.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/44612/where-did-it-all-go-wrong-for-the-lions

But you miss the Point. Brisbane are in a one Team town, yes they turned it around. 
North are in a much worse situation, Melbourne already has too many Clubs, compounded by The Tasmanian venture 

My preference is to remove and disband both GWS Giants and GC Suns 😇

On-field, between potential losses to free agency, potential losses to Tasmania, and the consumption of a couple of drafts by Tasmania coming in, it will be a very hard time for any club entering the next few years already in bad shape.

Off-field, for North things look even more taut with the potential to lose revenue from their Tasmania deal and the outright loss-making crowds to be expected if many of those games were in Melbourne (Adelaide, Port Adelaide and West Coast feature this season), plus an overall delicately balanced financial position.

It doesn't seem realistic that they'll manage even 5 wins this season, making that five consecutive years where their results would qualify for the old fashioned priority pick threshold. By fluke of venues and because of the Tassie fixture they have averaged one win a season in Victoria in that time.

It makes me worry. I'll keep my fingers crossed that their wave of kids develop together and become competitive soon enough to prevent a rolling exodus like the early days of Gold Coast, but with a much lower talent base.

I fear North Melbourne's prospects to 2030 in the brutal realities of 'AFL Inc' are about as promising as South Asia's prospects to 2050 in the brutal realities of climate change.

Melbourne needs fewer AFL teams and Adelaide needs more. The North Adelaide Kangaroosters?

Im personally a big fan of the idea of folding Collingwood and calling the new team the Burnie Magpies

1 hour ago, Oxdee said:

The league is barely able to sustain 18 teams. There isn’t enough sponsorship, members or players to facilitate a 19th team. Americas population is 10x Australia’s and only has 32 teams. 

it's not as simple as that. there are other factors. the cost of running one nfl club is probably more than the cost of running the whole afl, so in finanancial cost measurements the nfl is running the equivalent of 32 afl's.

talent pool however is a different issue, like you alluded to.  

my biggest beef is the odd number of 19 creates more problems such as fixture fairness and extra byes. and with 19 teams there is still only 9 games per week to monetise but the cost of running the whole show goes up by about 5% with no revenue increase (leaving out inflation which affects both costs and revenue)

Apart from a couple of good defenders, North have a list with excellent promise. Clarko is a good coach. If the AFL support them as they did us with Jackson and Roos, I can't see why they cannot rise, if they can keep the list together

We need to be careful assuming we are safe. The next 3 years with a bunch of key retirements could prove disastrous if not replenished.

I heard at various times over the last 6 years that North, St Kilda and us have been in the firing line for folding or relocation.

Our success has saved us... for now

No home base, aging stars,, membership ok but not near matching the big clubs.

It's a long road to the top, but a fast road back down

Good god, I'm sounding like SWYL now! 🤔

2 hours ago, Oxdee said:

The league is barely able to sustain 18 teams. There isn’t enough sponsorship, members or players to facilitate a 19th team. Americas population is 10x Australia’s and only has 32 teams. 

I'm impressed the US has 32 teams, even though I expected they would have a few more around. Seems like a big country. What is this sustainability you talk about? The AFL is a non-profit sport: the biggest in the country. 

Leave North alone (add Britney meme): they have a proud and boring history. Add Tas and then NT. Build a truly national sport and they will come. 

2 hours ago, Wells 11 said:

This was us 10 years ago… couid be us again one day.  We need to support the roos not dig their grave. 

Don’t want to dig their grave but 18 clubs is enough for the foreseeable future.

That said, I think the idea put forward that an existing AFL club be sacrificed is not going to work. There’s a lot of infrastructure invested at North Melbourne and the AFL continues to pump money into the club. To kill it off would be a tremendous waste of existing resources.

12 minutes ago, Skuit said:

I'm impressed the US has 32 teams, even though I expected they would have a few more around. Seems like a big country. What is this sustainability you talk about? The AFL is a non-profit sport: the biggest in the country. 

well, 32 nfl teams... and 32 nhl teams... and 30 (soon to be 32) nba teams... and mlb has 30 teams... not to mention a plethora of college teams whose support level dwarfs some of the teams in their four big codes

by comparison in terms of the biggest competitive sports there's 18 afl, 16 nrl, and 1 australian (plus 8 bbl) cricket team/s

the a-league and nbl are small fry; more akin to high school sports in the states that the professional competitions

as others have said, with the size of the pie that the afl ostensibly splits evenly as a nfp, there's no reason the kangas should be killed off any time soon and the 20th team - possibly a third in wa? - will appear within a few years of tasmania devils entry to even up the competition again

the one thing you want to avoid is to be 'down' from 2028-2034

Another beat up. Roos are a couple of decent key backmen and a goal sneak or two away from being very competitive. Get games into the kids. There's no hurry. Paul Roos had three years and he never made finals...

3 hours ago, Skuit said:

I'm impressed the US has 32 teams, even though I expected they would have a few more around. Seems like a big country. What is this sustainability you talk about? The AFL is a non-profit sport: the biggest in the country. 

‘The afl is a non profit sport’? You do realise clubs fold if they can’t make a profit? 

2 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

well, 32 nfl teams... and 32 nhl teams... and 30 (soon to be 32) nba teams... and mlb has 30 teams... not to mention a plethora of college teams whose support level dwarfs some of the teams in their four big codes

by comparison in terms of the biggest competitive sports there's 18 afl, 16 nrl, and 1 australian (plus 8 bbl) cricket team/s

the a-league and nbl are small fry; more akin to high school sports in the states that the professional competitions

as others have said, with the size of the pie that the afl ostensibly splits evenly as a nfp, there's no reason the kangas should be killed off any time soon and the 20th team - possibly a third in wa? - will appear within a few years of tasmania devils entry to even up the competition again

the one thing you want to avoid is to be 'down' from 2028-2034

I wonder how much of hawthorns success could be attributed the the introduction of gws and gc?

Hawthorn are pretty irrelevant at the moment, why can’t they disband?

Honestly though, for the game to be more of a national sport another team outside of Victoria is needed. Though there isn’t enough talent going around to keep it at the ‘elite’ level that was once offered back in the 16 team days.

Good luck getting a team up in the NT, conditions just aren’t right to have a team there (think of the disadvantage they’d have playing every 2nd week up in energy sapping conditions). 

4 hours ago, Oxdee said:

‘The afl is a non profit sport’? You do realise clubs fold if they can’t make a profit? 

Being non-profit doesn’t mean you don’t make a profit. It just means that the profits don’t go to shareholders or other private beneficiaries.